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    Coronavirus: Up To 24 Days Before Symptoms Start Showing?

    That would mean MANY more "infected & contagious yet unaware" cases exist
    by Adam Taggart

    Monday, February 10, 2020, 8:02 PM

A new report finds that the incubation period for the coronavirus may be as long as 24 days, 10 days longer than previous expected.

That means that the potential size of “infected & contagious yet unaware” masses walking around (outside of China’s quarantine borders) could be substantially larger than feared.

On top of that, additional data from China’s hospitals in Wuhan show that once a patient is hospitalized, meaning their condition has become severe, the death rate is very high (~20%). More reinforcement that you want to avoid this virus if at all possible.

And yet, the stock market remains unconcerned to the pandemic threat. Another up day, despite a warning from the Council on Foreign on the fragility of the US economy’s dependence on Chinese supply chains.

Scary stat: 97% of all US antibiotics come from China.

Meanwhile, many regions in China are extending their ‘return to work’ deadlines as efforts to fight the outbreak continue. As we’ve been saying daily now, at some point, the markets are going to have to acknowledge the large and growing lack of economic production that is not occurring.

Be sure to stay up-to-date on Peak Prosperity’s ongoing full coverage of the coronavirus outbreak by visiting here.

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145 Comments

  • Mon, Feb 10, 2020 - 9:21pm

    #1

    dtrammel

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    20 Years from Now

    20 years from now when students are studying this outbreak in school, one of the names a few will do class reports on will be Chris Martenson. LOL Chris, you may even get a high school named after you.

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  • Mon, Feb 10, 2020 - 9:24pm

    #2

    AKGrannyWGrit

    Status Bronze Member (Offline)

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    Off The Cuff

    Your latest video led me to believe you are in a city not in the rural countryside. Not that it is any of our business of course. However, we would love to hear your thoughts, frustrations and speculations for the future in a more informal manner.  I, like many, anticipate your next update but would like your informal thoughts too.

    Perhaps, this is the role you were meant for in life.  We are grateful to not have to go through this time in history without you.

    Love to be a fly on the wall as Chris and Adam BS about the state of affairs,

    Grateful Granny🤓

     

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  • Mon, Feb 10, 2020 - 9:37pm

    #3
    boutique1976

    boutique1976

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    Thank you!

    Thank you so much for honest reporting! I am so glad I found this site.

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  • Mon, Feb 10, 2020 - 10:02pm

    #4
    Lisa Mooney

    Lisa Mooney

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    Perhaps this matters not, with some posts about the development of Rapid testing that can be done in a CLIA/COW (waived) manner as a POCT (Point of care test), as the current RT PCR rapid test for influenza, RSV and Group A Strep?

    Copied/Pasted from CDC.gov
    CDC has developed a new laboratory test kit for use in testing patient specimens for 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV). The test kit is called the “Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) 2019-Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) Real-Time Reverse Transcriptase (RT)-PCR Diagnostic Panel.”  This test is intended for use with upper and lower respiratory specimens collected from persons who meet CDC criteria for 2019-nCoV testing. CDC’s test kit is intended for use by laboratories designated by CDC as qualified, and in the United States, certified under the Clinical Laboratory Improvement Amendments (CLIA) to perform high complexity tests. The test kits also will be shipped to qualified international laboratories, such as World Health Organization (WHO) Global Influenza Surveillance Response System (GISRS) laboratories. The test will not be available in U.S. hospitals or other primary care settings. The kits will be distributed through the International Reagent Resourceexternal icon (IRR).

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  • Mon, Feb 10, 2020 - 11:12pm

    #5
    Sparky1

    Sparky1

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    What about all those people screened and cleared using the 14-day incubation criteria?

    Wow, up to 24 days incubation period for nCoV symptoms to manifest?? This is really bad news. Think of all those people screened and cleared using the 14-day criteria that may be infected–including the repatriated citizens from Wuhan to countries all over the world. This, in addition to using fever as a rapid screening indicator for nCoV infection, missing all those infected who may be asymptomatic. The US and other countries were very late to acknowledge person-to-person transmission of nCoV. Likewise, it’ll be weeks before they revise their screening criteria to reflect the potential 24-day incubation period. This pandemic is simply going to explode worldwide in the next few weeks and months.

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  • Tue, Feb 11, 2020 - 12:28am

    #6
    nordicjack

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    I really feel the picture is very clear

    We are wondering if we are getting enough information , when I begin to feel the effects of information over-load.  But if to wade through the minutia,  the big picture is clear – and it pretty much is as your synopsis states.   Basically  we have a very transmissible virus with an incredibly long incubation period potential.  The implications here are straight forward as you mention , virtually impossible to trace or contain.   next we have a majority of 80% likely to have mild symptoms.   And the bigger problem is the 20% left that will need some sort of medical care.. And this is the BIG IF – how overwhelmed will the system be to adequately treat these people and how much will needed resources be affected?   That question will determine whether we will have a fatality rate as low as 1% or as high as 15-20 %.    In either case, even 1% CFR for a disease that will affect more than 15-20% of the population annually, will have an impact equal to having at least 10 flu going at once.  So, the implications here are straight forward.. a best case scenario is still very very significant to the health care system and the total amount of people to suffer.   its not the flu.. in no way shape or form and its not going to be contained in any shape or form..   I think this all stated here is consistent no matter which data you look at and whether you take a conservative or aggressive  standpoint.

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  • Tue, Feb 11, 2020 - 12:57am

    #7
    thesavior

    thesavior

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    The Real Dangerous Of The NCOV Is Much More Than All The Media & Governments Are Telling You

    If you want to win the battle, you must fully know & understand the enemies, their mechanism & features, weakness & strength.

    The Chinese Government has underestimated the nCOV new Corona Virus, that is why they are failing and on the verse of a complete total collapse.

    As a master of this Earth game, I can tell you that the real dangerous of the nCOV is not just above what the media & scientist are telling & will discovering in near future, but even far more than what any Governments & secret societies even dream & thinking.

    In your thinking, what is a perfect deadly virus, what features it should have?

    Then that is exactly the nCOV feature humanity are facing. It is even beyond novel & video game virus version one. It is the absolutely perfect one virus.

    I will tell you some basic features of the nCOV:

    – It can hide and stay in many popular daily objects like technology devices, doors, motors, cars, cloths, etc.

    – It can stay in almost all conditions like humans including cold and hot.

    – It can easily spread through air.

    – It has all the features of a combination SARS, Ebola, HIV and even more than that.

    – It can detect bad & good people & has it own spirit like a seen animal.

    – It can develop and has it own evolution daily non-stop to adapt new environment.

    – No any vaccine drug can work for this type of virus.

    Etc.

    You may ask so are we all going to receive that deadly virus?

    My answer is that yes, all of you are going to receive that type in your life.

    Many “weaker” Virus exist in your daily life environment already, it just that they are not “strong” enough for human need to be aware. But now it is just a more “stronger” one.

    How to counter & overcome that nCOV virus?

    I am not telling you now because I want to change the world system completely and give people more choice. And my blog website not yet famous. I do not want any secret societies, beings, government stealing & take credit for my own invention & creation.

    Maybe many of the world leaders are in same bed, same secret societies and work against & want enslave the rest. Many of them are going to die because of this nCOV virus for sure !!!

    Why there are no bounty reward from your government or any international organization for whoever able to solve this epidemic problems? Why don’t use the brain & mind set of all humanity together, but only rely on some “doctor, scientist”.

    You need to remember that the SARS was cured not because of any vaccine or drug from the doctor/lab house. It came from pure luck of understanding the feature/mechanism of the SARS.

    So you better stop waiting the doctors, scientist, etc.

    The only way out of this deadly global epidemic event is listen to me and receive full mechanism, features of this new Corona virus, and of course include a working cure as well.

    So if you want a perfect working cure for this deadly nCOV virus, you guys better telling your government/groups and share it to your friends about my web page https://theworld.data.blog & https://freejoy.aimoo.com .

    Best Regard,

    The Savior

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  • Tue, Feb 11, 2020 - 1:10am

    #8

    sofistek

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    Death Rate

    I’m not sure that mentioning the death rate once symptoms are severe enough to require hospitalization is helpful. It is the overall death rate that is most important and that appears to be staying constant at a little over 2%, possibly less if there are cases that aren’t being reported, perhaps because the symptoms are slight in those cases.

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  • Tue, Feb 11, 2020 - 1:39am

    #9
    Matties

    Matties

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    2 points

    2 points not to be missed from https://www.peakprosperity.com/new-research-suggests-the-coronavirus-may-be-far-worse-than-we-thought/

    GreenDoc found this one. I’m shocked… SARS patients cured shedding up to 80 days virussen

    A direct PDF link…

    https://watermark.silverchair.com/42-11-1561.pdf?token=AQECAHi208BE49Ooan9kkhW_Ercy7Dm3ZL_9Cf3qfKAc485ysgAAAlcwggJTBgkqhkiG9w0BBwagggJEMIICQAIBADCCAjkGCSqGSIb3DQEHATAeBglghkgBZQMEAS4wEQQMFNJZeofdqfZcPLCfAgEQgIICCgSu8qEWvYkN8nkmHs8lID63K0BLKF-q1xEl121HvQOrhjpu3GWKLVbqaHDWB9Fs4VRONfLHvOfD5OZUpDZiA2MHgPx4iFWStWlPBkCf2kNnvFDpt1YPrW2o23ek5Pj8N5-kTCnzoVFt1Cw18DlaxV6VszQauAbOsPtnkfpcPPw0bTdKj_011xjek5FGioE9s_ahkhVedtt5MzCDWNzw2kAYT4AnWQ58mME2C64jIppVzy05G_C_qJl7OOMdQ1Kx4NWImx0L0kCUgFokNcurLIvXu9B5ldCMTxWa_lpM0qgLd3KkFZXsEiivTQasBtLDUqM739QZ11QGolr7A_MpQc7_8jq1BAyvCcOLwusCWR2hba1hndfsHKeyDGbqgB491AENXVzsNdmt4-F3bGKfDHZujqZlKZTljrMM4284EkhJIDyfKRngSn5zo5bNvZT7OR2v8MwNy8nMbD4HIRLfY5Qp_Nx8AOQVat8AD90sTZ9oRYMEjYfI-YikDRWaMprZO1jOVP7oPWSfgRYCNpOKWZ39SwlgdlhfMwnQYKihq1T6-wMBHiF7EaRsBa3F1e2KsVN450dJD9fzXuovucS168Ok4HIgGTI1w-xNBCJ4-ZudMMYmW3Hf0A_OlmaN8bGdCBn8xnywzVcNVFo00J5xVPD6kCMuQZbPt-JdwuemENm6iOJvxk9bkL-Zag

    Another post was from Nate about Wuhan conditions.

    A coworker from Wuhan told me the Chinese leadership decided long ago not to heat homes during the winter south of the Yellow River. This includes Wuhan. I asked him if the windows were closed to maintain some heat, and he said the humidity will spike and mildew will take over. Windows are kept open all winter. This time of the year the temperatures are about -10C. He thought hospitals would vary on heat – some would have it, some won’t.

    Cities north of the Yellow river (Beijing) utilize coal generated steam and pump it through pipes. The air quality is horrible after every November 2nd.

    Side note – he has visited family in Wuhan frequently and ALWAYS comes back to the states sick.

    My take is that Wuhan and large cities in China are a biological and chemical cesspools. And when you throw in no heat during the middle of winter, I can’t image a decent survival rate. I don’t know if the virus will retreat with warmer weather, but a case can be made for reduced mortality during warmer weather.

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  • Tue, Feb 11, 2020 - 1:43am

    #10
    thelittleman

    thelittleman

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    Found this on reddit, think its worth reading and spreading

    A letter to the world:

     

    (09.02.2020)

     

    The corona virus is spreading and the governments around the world are still pretending nothing is happening. Officials say not to worry because it’s just a flu. In a risk assessment even if you believe that there is a low probability that a harm occurs but the consequences are catastrophic such as a potential pandemic you still need to act. This threat should be taken more seriously and governments should provide all necessary supplies and staff to China and Asian countrys in order to slow the spread. We cannot afford to take the risk and just hope the problem will conveniently solve itself. This is a global threat. There needs to be a global response.

     

    I still remember the Tabacco companies. Most experts said “smoking kills” (common sense), but Big Tabacco found some experts that said, “it’s not a problem.” The next time you read the newspapers, there was the slogan “experts say smoking is not harmful.” Well, Big Tabacco was telling the truth, there were experts… but reality was much different. What do I hear now from the news? “Mortality is not that high, future numbers will maybe relieve the situation. The action taken is a big burden on the economy (true) and could be a potential threat (supply chains).” We don’t have all the data yet! Cases just doubled in Singapore (since Feb. 3). It will take two weeks until we get reliable data from these cases, cruise ships (reliable data), Japan and so on.

     

    I can’t believe that the global community didn’t even try to throw at least the same amount of money that got used to bail out the banks at the WHO to try and stop the spread. I mean at least TRY, there is a window of opportunity that could get exponentially smaller every day. There is stuff we can do! What happens right now is going into the history books, mark my words.

     

    Point one: If we let this pathogen burn through the population, we have to live with it again and again and again. Imagine INDIA and AFRICA with the lack of healthcare and undernourished bodies. We are going to see different pictures from there.

     

    Point two: This is a single-stranded RNA virus. The reason you have double-stranded DNA is that it’s more stable (lower mutation rate, less cancer and many other reasons). The RNA will produce many mistakes in its replication process leading to a higher potential for mutation. That could be good or bad. The Spanish flu circulated three times around the globe because it changed. People that got through the first wave were not immune to the new surface structure of the next wave.

     

    I don’t want this! At least try, world! If the next generations have to live with it, they should read in the history books that we did every rational thing that we could do. Otherwise, it would be such a SHAME… I refuse to believe that we are talking monkeys with smartphones that are more scared of a recession. The Chinese extended holidays were supposed to end on Sunday (if I am informed correctly) and some people seem to be very scared of what will happens if the Chinese don’t go back to the factories and work and remain in quarantine instead. The numbers of the last two days, if correct, are a reason to have some hope. If we resume business as usual too fast, i am afraid that we will lose this advantage and contagion will become hopeless or very difficult and expensive.

    Mr. John Campbell (watch him), your fact-based approach and honest discussion are a rare and very important tool for people to make objective and rational decisions with on this evolving topic. In the name of our little community -THANK YOU.

     

    Mr. Gates, thank you for being smart and warning us of the obvious event that just had a big mathematical likelihood of happening. Please don’t feel offended by these weird conspiracy theories, they don’t know any better and subconsciously hope that some human is in control.

     

    Mr. Musk, I guess you were right that people don’t understand exponential curves. They are emotional beings. What’s behind the simulation – impressively smart answer.

     

    Mr. Buffet, always a step ahead – nice Basket.

     

    Mr. Bezos, your super effective business concept is deeply connected with the Chinese supply chain. It would fit your name and your business if you helped the WHO. Others would follow.

     

    To get this straight, a chemical or nuclear contamination will decrease exponentially with time. A biological contamination can increase exponentially with time.

    Regarding all these conspiracy theories, later you have all the time in the world to compare homologous sequences and point fingers. In my opinion, I think it’s most likely that it originated from nature. It looks to me that the Big Investment companies got surprised by this event and need more time and good news to unload all their stocks to the little man (good book by the way). Just check Google trends.

     

    Basic information (our past future calculations have been matched three weeks in a row +- 20 percent): R(0) between 2 and 4.08 (source: WHO), asymptomatic spread (source: WHO), human to human transmission (source: WHO), 3 – 12 (maybe 21) days incubation period, time being sick 6 – 23 days (you are able to infect others during the whole incubation time and time being sick), mortality rate – insufficient data but it looks like it’s not like SARS for now, regarding European countries air travel is still engaged with China (necessary for medical equipment and support, but seeding potential), air travel to China and people that have been to China in the last 14 days (incubation period) were stopped by the USA (it reduces the number of potential seeders/infection chains), single strand RNA virus, potential bacterial secondary infections (basically nearly all antibiotics are produced in China), no immunity (we are a virgin population).

     

    Governments, you should have acted three weeks ago. Please act now to stop or at least slow the spread (healthcare capacity can be used for more people over a longer period of time if the infection chain is slowed down). In the words of the famous Elvis Presley, “a little less conversation, a little more action please.” The most efficient first steps will be to help China and Asia in containment. They need medical supplies, medical staff and maybe basics like food in the future if they are willing to keep up the containment efforts (if you do – thank you). In this case, solidarity might result in lower costs, “better” ROI; it will be a very expensive process anyways.

     

    People, if your community is affected in the far future (might not happen), you are increasing your selfish individual benefit by an order of magnitude if you follow and maintain the social order! I urge you to follow the orders of the officials and stay rational! Any behavior that increases entropy will tie up resources and help spread the disease or its negative impact on society, which would directly or indirectly have a negative impact for you and your loved ones! To efficiently fight a virus, collective intelligence is the key and this lesson might have very good consequences for the future as well. To finish this, don’t be too scared, it’s not the end of the world. Fortunately, it’s just a coronavirus and it seems to be “harmless” enough to not constantly interrupt the global division of labor and working world we live in and all depend on. Listen to and follow the officials, help others and always, always! treat animals with respect as fellow beings on this planet to avoid something worse than this happening in the future again. Many Chinese factories opened today (10.02.2020) and I am afraid that we gone see outstanding numbers between April and May.

     

    OK, I tried my best. While I am writing this, there is actually a storm approaching my hometown today, which reminds me of this proverb:

     

    When The Winds of Change Blow, Some People Build Walls, Others Build Windmills – Chinese Proverb

     

    Cheers, the little man.

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  • Tue, Feb 11, 2020 - 1:45am

    #11
    Matties

    Matties

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    The link is faulty. This one should work.

    https://academic.oup.com/cid/article/42/11/1561/282653

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  • Tue, Feb 11, 2020 - 3:18am

    #12

    cheapseats

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    Debunking SO2 and burning bodies

    Sharing this credible debunking of the SO2 and body burning on Reddit.  In short it is modeled data, not real time sensor data. https://www.reddit.com/r/China_Flu/comments/f19uc8/debunking_the_burning_bodies_sulphur_sulfur/

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  • Tue, Feb 11, 2020 - 3:35am

    Reply to #8
    Nairobi

    Nairobi

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    Ok, that made me laugh, Sofistek

    When you wrote “It is the overall death rate that is most important” and I read that I burst out laughing.

    No man, nobody is interested in that. What we are really asking ourselves when we talk statistics is if our personal death rate is going to happen. Lol

    The most important death is our own.

    Why else would we take a morbid interest in who this illness is killing and what their risk profiles were? Its because we are trying to compare ourselves against the fatality pattern over there to try and estimate our personal chances of survival.

    Fortunately our chances are excellent. Part of it is the advantage of heightened awareness since the infection has struck first in Asia allowing us time to prepare.

    But there are other factors. We tend to live alone and demand more personal space. Millions more people on this continent own private vehicles and do not share space willingly at the best of times. That in itself is a good defensive posture to take.

    And millions more of us telecommute. We are surely one of the most connected societies on the planet where employers are willing to allow us to work from home and a lot of us don’t even have traditional employment anymore.

    Third, cash use is low and falling so physical risk is on the decline in that one area of our lives. Not everyone agrees with a cashless society but at the moment it sure suits me to pay  online, by phone or via the internet instead of going to town with wads of infected money. LOL

    Fourth, we have a first rate medical system and some of the best educated and skillful people on planet Earth taking charge there. If I had my choice of where to fall ill whether in North America, China or Africa the answer is obvious.

    So when I look at all the options and consider my personal chances of survival (my death rate!) I am pretty confident my odds are as good here as they will ever be.

    Everything else is in the hands of the Angel’s.

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  • Tue, Feb 11, 2020 - 3:50am

    Reply to #8
    loot

    loot

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    When you wrote “It is the overall death rate that is most important” and I read that I burst out laughing.

    No man, nobody is interested in that. What we are really asking ourselves when we talk statistics is if our personal death rate is going to happen. Lol

    All we can say is you’re not interested in that. All you care about is yourself but other people have family and friends they care about and many it may surprise you care about people dying in general. Of course our own death is normally the most important but saying ‘nobody is interested in that’ is somewhat obtuse.

    All we can say is it’s your own personal view.

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  • Tue, Feb 11, 2020 - 3:53am

    Reply to #8
    Nairobi

    Nairobi

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    Staying Alive!

    My own checklist goes like this:

    1) Shop online

    2) Work from home

    3) Don’t rideshare or drive guests around

    4) Stay out of malls and restaurants and 7-11’s

    5) Avoid using physical cash

    6) Spend more time with the cat and avoid clubs

    7) Take my vitamins..stop smoking

    8) Avoid clinics and hospitals at all cost!

    9) We only need to live long enough until a vaccine is created. This can’t be that hard really. Like 18 months tops.

    10) We will be just fine. It’s the poor countries I feel badly about. Especially Africa. Let’s not forget to be charitable and generous. We have all the advantages they don’t.

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  • Tue, Feb 11, 2020 - 3:58am

    #13

    Agent700

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    There are many accolades to Chris & Adam and Peak Prosperity in this video:

    ADVChina is SPOT ON! These doctors lived here in Shenzhen and are married to Mainland Chinese families and even Chinese doctors. They have the best real time, boots on the ground data. They COMPLETELY understand Chinese culture and the CCP.

    I know – I’ve lived here in Shenzhen for 7 years, worked in China for 30.

    I was so happy to hear them shout out to Peak Prosperity!

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  • Tue, Feb 11, 2020 - 4:20am

    #14
    Sabemenos

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    H5N1

    what is going on?   Business Insider reports an outbreak of H5N1 in Hunan, which has a 60 percent mortality rate.  What are the odds on such virulent pathogen outbreaks so close to each other.  Is this nature strikes back or germ warfare?

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  • Tue, Feb 11, 2020 - 4:49am

    #15
    Awka72

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    24 Days ago is January 19

    So, prior to the lockdown of Wuhan.

    There is info tracking flights & cell data showing at least 60,000 people who left Wuhan alone after the outbreak, but prior to lockdown, and they’ve basically covered the globe.

    Sobering.

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  • Tue, Feb 11, 2020 - 4:51am

    #16
    dryam2000

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    Severity of illness & mortality rate

    Nothing can be said until this outbreak has reached some sort of steady state, meaning more time has to pass.  There is a big (unknown) lag from time of inoculation to death.  Also, hospitals will likely get overwhelmed as time goes on, and as the ICUs get full the mortality rate will go up further.  There are actually two mortality rates:  those who receive first rate care including mechanical ventilation, etc, and those who do not have access.

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  • Tue, Feb 11, 2020 - 5:02am

    #17
    Matties

    Matties

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    Super virus

    Over in Hong Kong, dozens of residents of a housing complex in Hong Kong have been quarantined after two people living on separate floors were infected with the virus, raising the possibility that it might have been traveling through the pipes.

    Per local officials from Hong Kong’s Center for Health Protection, the decision to partially evacuate the building was made after investigators discovered an unsealed bathroom pipe in the apartment of a 62-year-old woman found to be infected. She lives 10 floors below another resident who was found to be infected, the NYT reports.

    https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/13-us-virus-case-confirmed-san-diego-china-fires-2-top-health-officials-over-botched

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  • Tue, Feb 11, 2020 - 5:31am

    Reply to #14

    cheapseats

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    H5N1 does not infect humans

    does not make the jump from birds to humans easily

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  • Tue, Feb 11, 2020 - 5:45am

    #18
    mad_bobul

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    Africa and the rest

    That is interesting and may tell a lot why Africa and other poor countries look “clean”.

    Million Chinese workers in Africa, few test sets for the whole continent, lack of simplest precautionary measures. What could go wrong??

     

    https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/prepared-africa-braces-virus-68844055

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  • Tue, Feb 11, 2020 - 6:03am

    Reply to #14
    Sabemenos

    Sabemenos

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    H5N1 60 percent mortality in humans

    there have been no US human infections of H5N1 but plenty in Asia.   Just saying it’s odd that there are two such dangerous outbreaks so close in space and time.

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  • Tue, Feb 11, 2020 - 6:10am

    #19
    westcoastdog

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    Stock markets don't care

    Hang Seng Hong Kong  27,583.88  +342.54  +1.26%   
    Shanghai Composite China  2,901.67  +11.19  +0.39% 
    While followers of this website are hyper-defensive, the stock markets around the world are up, ignoring the NcoV virus. Obviously, the smart money is dismissing the threat of the virus.
    I suggest people read “The Skeptics Guide to the Universe,” which explains why people believe in falsehoods and fake news. Reading the various threads here, I see a perfect example of confirmation bias. People are focusing on the bad news and ignoring the positive. Positive? It has been more than two weeks since the planes carrying infected people to the US and Europe, and not one fellow passenger or crew member has become contaminated. That fact is puzzling because close contact is usually the method of transmission, but the long flights in a confined quarter have not spread the disease. I find that reassuring. Premier Xi believes the warm weather in April will mitigate the spread of the virus. Did the Spanish flue diminish during the summer months?
    I spent about $200 on defensive products, but will not purchase anymore.
    I live in the San Francisco bay area, which has a large Asian population. I was in SF on Sunday, and very few people were wearing masks, mainly Asians.
    Most were wearing surgical masks, not N95, which will not stop the virus from others but protect other people from the wearer.

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  • Tue, Feb 11, 2020 - 6:18am

    #20
    mad_bobul

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    Re: Stock markets don't care

    While followers of this website are hyper-defensive, the stock markets around the world are up, ignoring the NcoV virus. Obviously, the smart money is dismissing the threat of the virus.

    Sure. It is your and only your responsibility – I mean, what you plan to do. In my opinion, oil market is much better indicator than stock market that can be pumped endlessly with printed money. You see – oil is the stuff you have to use. Storage is very expensive so when there is no demand the price goes down.

    So once I see oil in range of 70 $ – I will be sure everything is fine and there is no impact on our merry life.

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  • Tue, Feb 11, 2020 - 6:23am

    #21

    nickbert

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    New suspected cases in Mongolia

    Today’s news in Mongolia mentioned 12 people in one of the border towns next to China suspected of having coronavirus and being quarantined. Additionally, there’s one suspected case in Khuvsgul province in the north who is also being quarantined. I imagine they’ll know for sure in a day or two. Only have an English language link for the latter:

    https://news.mn/en/790843/

    We can still get most things in the store and food is not a problem except with some of the fruits and vegetables imported from/through China are not available (still getting bananas at least!). Facemasks (surgical or the N95 kind) and hand sanitizer are almost impossible to find. Recently the cheaper Russian-brand bleach has been harder to find, but there are still some of the more expensive Korean and German brands of bleach available.

    Something else worth noting, the Mongolian companies that make the processed coal briquettes (that are used to reduce pollution in the city by replacing raw coal) are running short of a particular compound the use for production. That compound apparently comes from… yeah you guessed it… China! They’re working to source alternatives from Russia or Europe, but I guess it’s much more expensive. At any rate it sounds like they only have less than 2 weeks’ supply of the briquettes left. There’s currently a ban on raw coal being burned in the city, but there’s no doubt at all the residents who rely on wood/coal stoves will give the city gov’t the finger and buy/use the raw coal when briquette supplies run out. It’ll be a shame because the pollution has been much better this winter thus far, but it’s hard to fault anyone who doesn’t want to freeze!

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  • Tue, Feb 11, 2020 - 7:26am

    Reply to #8
    Mr Curious

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    Lower risk over here?

    Nairobi, the points you make are not universal over here in the US. We have armies of homeless who are vulnerable to this virus as well as people without health insurance that will resist going to the emergency room for cold and flu symptoms in order to avoid bankruptcy. Cash is still extremely important for all types of things, notably small businesses, farmer’s markets etc… This becomes even more true if global supply chains are disrupted and local economies become more important. Bartering with your neighbor will probably not be with a credit card.  I acknowledge your point though, at the moment that we can self-isolate better than those in huge Chinese cities…

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  • Tue, Feb 11, 2020 - 7:36am

    #22
    km64

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    Cruise ships already incubator for viruses

    One of the many reasons I refuse to go on a large city hold cruise ship is they are such closed in spaces with SO MANY people on board.

    So, I’m not sure how valid the comparison is cruise ship versus air plane versus other public situations.

    https://abcnews.go.com/US/270-cruise-ship-passengers-sickened-norovirus-royal-caribbean/story?id=60291868

    The Royal Caribbean Oasis of the Seas cruise ship is cutting its journey short after 475 passengers and crew members have been infected with a norovirus, Royal Caribbean Cruises announced Thursday.

    https://www.usatoday.com/story/travel/cruises/2020/02/10/cruise-ship-norovrius-outbreak-sickens-300-amid-coronavirus-onboard-others/4715417002/

    At least 299 passengers and 22 crew members onboard the ship operated by California-based Princess Cruise Lines Ltd. have become sick, according to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. The Health Ministry of Trinidad & Tobago said in a statement it denied the ship entry as a precautionary measure given the outbreak.

    Norovirus is a stomach bug that hits about 19 million to 21 million Americans each year, according to the CDC. Symptoms include vomiting, diarrhea and stomach cramping.

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  • Tue, Feb 11, 2020 - 7:38am

    Reply to #18
    Nairobi

    Nairobi

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    Poverty is not the only problem in Africa

    I can give you three very quick answers about the risk profile in much of Africa. First is the substandard medical settings where MRSA runs rampant and uncontained. Secondly, in East Africa they are currently in a battle with several antibiotic resistant respiratory illnesses and a particularly deadly form of TB that responds to no treatments.

    Third there are extremely high rates of HIV in places like Addis Ababa which means large swathes of the population will fall into the category of having preexisting health issues once Corona arrives.

    Added to this are low salaries and poorly educated medical support staff, a distrust of medical practitioners and superstition.

    Africans already widely believe that the developed countries are targeting them with illnesses like AIDS. That belief is very firmly entrenched. So the advent of a deadly illness from China could result in a social backlash as deaths mount.

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  • Tue, Feb 11, 2020 - 7:47am

    Reply to #8
    BillL

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    Vaccine #9...lmao.

    No way in hell am I getting that vaccine.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qCCuCo3Sa-c   Nearly a week old and may have been posted here already…only 20 mins.

     

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  • Tue, Feb 11, 2020 - 7:57am

    Reply to #8
    Nairobi

    Nairobi

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    Comparisons to Africa

    Of course you are correct Mr Curious. Comparisons to Africa cannot be made easily. It is another world entirely. Let me give you some perspective to help. In Ethiopia the average annual expenditure per person for medical provisions was 28 US dollars in 2018. That figure includes spending by governments and NGO’s. So yes, no comparison here at all. That amount of money barely buys a single course of medication in the US, nevermind an entire medical system. Here is the link:

    https://knoema.com/atlas/Ethiopia/topics/Health/Health-Expenditure/Health-expenditure-per-capita

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  • Tue, Feb 11, 2020 - 8:00am

    Reply to #8
    Nairobi

    Nairobi

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    Comparisons to Africa

    Of course you are correct Mr Curious. Comparisons to Africa cannot be made easily. It is another world entirely. Let me give you some perspective to help. In Ethiopia the average annual expenditure per person for medical provisions was 28 US dollars in 2018. That figure includes spending by governments and NGO’s. So yes, no comparison here at all. That amount of money barely buys a single course of medication in the US, nevermind an entire medical system.

    Link is found at knoema dot com (my comments with links are not posting for some reason)

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  • Tue, Feb 11, 2020 - 8:27am

    Reply to #14
    Kgluong

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    The last computer model report was 18% mortality rate with 95% being correct for nCoV in Wahun.

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  • Tue, Feb 11, 2020 - 8:30am

    Reply to #12
    Kgluong

    Kgluong

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    No one is working for over a month in wuhan. So the hot spost only means the government is burning bodies. There are numerous reports of body burning on Twitter.

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  • Tue, Feb 11, 2020 - 8:44am

    Reply to #16
    Kgluong

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    We will get some good data on the mortality rate in a couple of weeks. Princess Diamond will provide accurate mortality rate data. As it stands what is happening inside Princess Diamond mirroring what is happening in Wuhan.

     

     

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  • Tue, Feb 11, 2020 - 9:05am

    Reply to #16
    BillL

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    Cruise ships...

    A cruise ship with 3-5000 specimens of all walks of life and ethnicity would be and ideal closed test environment.

    Chew on that one for a while.

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  • Tue, Feb 11, 2020 - 9:23am

    Reply to #20
    PenchantForHoarding

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    Stock Market / NPR Coverage

    Caveat:  NOT a financial advisor.

    FWIW #1:  I’m all cash with a hedge in PHYS and a small position in SH.  If SH doesn’t pan out today, have to think it’s a good “high” to buy in at.

    FWIW #2:  After being lambasted as a family/friend prophet of doom through silver/2011, economic collapse, SARS, Ebola, et al… and having “prepared accordingly” as Turd from TFMR would say… I’m starting to feel really uneasy overall.  the numbers are staggering, and MSM is starting to follow it.

    Just listening to NPR this morning, BBC News Hour devoted almost the whole segment to virus coverage, and even WNYC is covering it with some intensity.  Late to the game, but by no means diluted.

    Ughh… this might be the real deal.

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  • Tue, Feb 11, 2020 - 9:41am

    #23
    LabCat

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    We Are Government, We're Here To Help

    *From CNBC

    11:15 am: CDC says lab mix-up led to mistaken discharge of an infected patient

    A mix-up in the lab allowed an infected patient that had been evacuated from China to leave the hospital and intermingle with other evacuees quarantined at a military base, Dr. Anne Schuchat, a top official at the CDC, told reporters in Washington. “It turns out there was probably a mix up and the original test wasn’t negative,” she said. Four evacuees at Marine Corps Air Station Miramar in San Diego had been in federal quarantine after showing symptoms of the virus. After testing negative for the virus, they were returned to the base on Sunday where they joined more than 200 people who are under a 14-day quarantine. The CDC discovered that one of the patients actually tested positive for Covid-19 and was returned to the hospital where they are under isolation. “

     

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  • Tue, Feb 11, 2020 - 9:45am

    #24

    dtrammel

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    BTW We're Talking Prep In This Thread

    Someone asked a bit ago, why we were talking about gardens in the economics video thread. For one thing there are a lot of newer people here, worried but also because being prepared is as important as discussing ongoing medical and economic concerns in the World.

    Some of us, have been carrying on the preparations discussions in this thread.

    https://www.peakprosperity.com/coronavirus-what-we-can-say-publicly-what-we-cant/

    Read thru it if you are new and want to get some information on how many of us are preparing, stocking up on food and what we are buying. Feel free to join in too.

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  • Tue, Feb 11, 2020 - 9:54am

    #25
    Mike from Jersey

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    China

    Late last night, I had a phone conversation with my girlfriend who is staying in Southwest China.

    She confirmed what this podcast is saying. Chinese television is telling people flat-out that the incubation period may be a full four weeks.

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  • Tue, Feb 11, 2020 - 10:17am

    #26
    ciacovops

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    After a look at ct scans of chinese chest/lungs on the Lancet site....OMG

    This might be research that could save some lives…Or at least a break from the resp wards Non-stop choking patients.. some relief for them ?

    Just saying

    I have no unrealistic fantasy at 57 of surviving the trauma to heart and lungs typical of this virus so far..the scans on the lancet site were terrifying in their implication.

    Quality of life for a large portion of survivors post Icu..probably won’t be a happy time.

    The lungs scarring typical of the infection isn’t likely to improve much. this link might be a treatment safer than hyperbarik chambers as a last resort .

    This link is old tech and now almost ready to deploy..

    …but might actually give Dr’s a way to introduce meds and ease the suffocating terror of one whose heart & lungs are failing  coughing unable to take deep a breath ..fluid building up, exacerbating a hopeless situation with a slow buildup of  still more co2 til it overloads us …Finally too exausted from fighting for air..we eventually give in.

    If co2 wins we lose..

    But possibly allowing some respite…this crazy memory of  50+yr old idea.

    Remember the abyss?

    Be a good way to get to mars too if the ships filled with a similar stuff…🤔

    Its not science fiction anymore.

    Some hospitals are using it to save preemies with bad lungs

    https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://academic.oup.com/bja/article/91/1/143/276179&ved=2ahUKEwiS7b7F9cnnAhUNcq0KHfXACGs4ChAWMAV6BAgFEAE&usg=AOvVaw0GlL6M2hBuNzO4-Aaj-W5s

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  • Tue, Feb 11, 2020 - 10:26am

    Reply to #26
    mjvoet

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    Daily Digest & Market Report?

    What happened to these?

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  • Tue, Feb 11, 2020 - 10:37am

    #27
    Tom Sammy

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    Local testing in Illinois

    Finallly a local US testing capability (but says still has to be double checked by CDC if positive).  Lots of issues remain with testing but hoping this is a good step.

    https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.chicagotribune.com/news/ct-coronavirus-first-state-to-test-illinois-20200211-65tlopwjijfelmzyebfvk55gku-story.html%3foutputType=amp

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  • Tue, Feb 11, 2020 - 10:39am

    Reply to #25

    Oliveoilguy

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    Mike

    Would be interested in anything your girlfriend would share regarding conditions ….her direct observations ……anything to help us sift out the truth…

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  • Tue, Feb 11, 2020 - 11:11am

    #28
    PokerBear

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    This isn’t gonna be good

    At least Tom Cotton is talking about this too:

    “Simply and horribly, this is likely to become another Chernobyl or Fukushima – a catastrophic illustration of mankind’s hubris and intransigence clashing with Nature, as fate again reaps a once unimaginably tragic toll.”

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  • Tue, Feb 11, 2020 - 11:23am

    Reply to #26

    dtrammel

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    They Are Probably Pretty Busy

    Mjvoet, I would imagine Chris and Adam are pretty busy going thru the news and getting the almost daily video done to have time for the daily market reports. Not sure how many additional people they have on staff.

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  • Tue, Feb 11, 2020 - 11:46am

    #29
    Lineman7

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    Is Non-China Case Increase Exponential? & Will Chinese Cos restart in next few weeks?

    Two items

    1. Total non-China cases for the last week:

    2-10 457, 2-9 376, 2/8 361, 2/7 318, 2/6 310, 2/5 257, 2/4 213, 2/3 188

    The cases are coming in irregularly, but have been doubling every six days for 2/9 and 2/10. Could be exponential? Not good if it continues.

    2. Another good indication of the success for China’s virus response will be how successful China’s manufacturing restarts are over the next few weeks. It will entail close quarters in commuting to the factories and on the factory floors. Also, most types of PPE interferes with working 8-10 hours. We will see.

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  • Tue, Feb 11, 2020 - 11:51am

    Reply to #16
    km64

    km64

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    Except...

    The world is not a closed environment.

    I’m just hypothesizing that the results of locking people in a giant test tube aren’t going to be 100% applicable as to rates of infection in the public at large. I’d say that the rates of infection would be greater on a cruise ship.

    Is a “Lord of the Flies” type scenario a good model of social structures in the real world, or are they constrained by the circumstances?

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  • Tue, Feb 11, 2020 - 11:52am

    #30
    Steve

    Steve

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    Locked and Loaded

    Let’s get this party started.

    All stocked-up on food for a few months, elderberry syrup, decongestant, throat lozenges, vitamins, supplements, water, disinfectants, masks, and on and on … staying strong and building the immune system.  Plant based diet for seven+ years now.

    If what we hear is true, then it’s best my generation doesn’t get this virus… too old … the associated pneumonia is bad news…if it doesn’t kill us, quality of life will be diminished with the scarring of the lungs and heart damage…

    This boomer and his wife could self-isolate for months.  We are in for the duration.

    Do you think we in the USA may have overreacted?  Or, is this just the lull before the storm?

    Haven’t seen or heard of much concern in Atlanta.

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  • Tue, Feb 11, 2020 - 12:02pm

    #31
    Wintergreen

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    24 Days Ago was January 19th

    The AP headline from January 11th, barely more than a week earlier, was “China reports 1st death from new type of coronavirus.”

    On January 19th, no one had said people were contagious when asymptomatic, no one had said the virus could remain active on surfaces for up to 9 days, no one had said it was airborne, no one had found it in patients after they appeared recovered, nor had they found the virus present in every conceivable bodily emission except for toenail clippings.

    On January 19th, people from Wuhan were still boarding airplanes.  The Daily Mail ran an article about a frantic search for “missing” people who had entered the UK before flights were suspended.  ” Almost 1,500 people flew from Wuhan to the UK between January 10 and January 24 before all flights in and out of the Chinese city were cancelled.”

    People reading here already know this stuff, of course.  It’s just meant as a prelude to my question:  What about the stewardesses?  I haven’t flown in over a year, but they do still employ them on airplanes, do they not?  Stewardesses who walk the aisles handing all the passengers those bags of mini-pretzels, and napkins to wipe their fingers and faces with, and cups of pop or booze to drink from, and who come back to pick up those same plastic cups after they are coated with saliva.  I don’t remember seeing any of them scrubbing their hands down with sanitizer or switching off pairs of latex gloves between servicing every passenger.

    So, if any of those airline employees contracted the virus, they could potentially only now be showing symptoms of an illness they unknowingly were contagious with for more than three weeks.  How many other flights did they work?  How many people could they have infected?  And, of those passengers, especially the frequent-flyer businessmen or extended vacationers who were infected, how many bars and restaurants did they visit while waiting for their next flight to board?  How many bartenders and waitresses picked up those used glasses and utensils, and then served another customer?  How many hours did they pass hanging around an airport lounge while people from every destination on earth brushed past them, put their hands on the same armrests, or followed them into restroom stalls.

    If everything we’re being told about nCoV today is accurate, I guess we’ll know the answer pretty soon.

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  • Tue, Feb 11, 2020 - 12:12pm

    #32
    RebelYell

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    20% number is bad data

    The Telegraph headline is based on the Imperial College study from Jan 25th.  They came up with 20% by estimating the time lag between case rate and fatalities at that time.

    We have more recent and better data now which implies that the death rate is significantly lower than this.  The JAMA paper from a few days ago and the Straits Times interview with its author Dr. Peng.  Dr Peng is suggesting that

    –  of patients admitted to hospital approximately 26% enter ICU

    –  of patients entering ICU approximately 15% die (he indicates that this may edge up a little but he does not expect it to change too much as most of his patients are now on their way to recovery)

    –  this translates to a 5% death rate for those admitted to hospital who receive good care – 4 patients needed ECMO (artificial lung) for example.

    Dr Peng also notes that “most” patients do not need to be admitted to hospital at all and that therefore the overall rate is much lower than 5%, but acknowledges that he does not have accurate data here.

    Zerohedge has reprinted most of this story wothout a paywall here:  https://www.zerohedge.com/health/death-rate-5-harrowing-admission-wuhan-doctor and the JAMA paper is here: https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2761044

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  • Tue, Feb 11, 2020 - 12:22pm

    #33
    Monakha

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    Corona-virus Emergency and cover up

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DdYOmBA6VVo

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HuenKXZQ-kY

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CG0up6TeJCI

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  • Tue, Feb 11, 2020 - 12:38pm

    #34
    westcoastdog

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    3 DAY INCUBATION PERIOD!

    The article below says 24 day period is rare. This is great news because the hundreds of passengers who flew to the US and Europe last month on planes with infected persons would be sick by now. The RO factor then must be around two or less.

    https://www.straitstimes.com/asia/east-asia/research-shows-3-day-median-incubation-period-for-coronavirus

     

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  • Tue, Feb 11, 2020 - 1:03pm

    Reply to #19
    Sparky1

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    Westcoastdog, might you have a bit of confirmation bias yourself?

    Westcoastdog,  Have you been watching and learning from Chris’ videos, not just the nCoV series, but also those in the Crash Course series? It may take time but they are very enlightening.  Here’s another excellent resource for well-researched reporting regarding economies and the “”markets””:  http://themoneygps.com/youtube/

    You said, “the stock markets around the world are up, ignoring the NcoV virus. Obviously, the smart money is dismissing the threat of the virus.”

    The stock market is being pumped-up through daily injections of billion$ by the buyer of last resort, the Federal Reserve, through their repo operations. (FR daily reports here) Banks have been using the funds to maintain liquidity, with fed funds sloshing among and between these TBTF banks. Otherwise credit would freeze-up and the system would come crashing down. Company executives and other insiders have been cashing in their stock options, selling stocks back to companies, which have been using this cheap/free money to buy-back their insiders’ stocks, pumping up their stock price without producing anything of real value (e.g., capital improvements). PE/stock valuations are ridiculously, dangerously high. The “”markets”” are also pumped by institutional investors (e.g., pension funds, 401Ks) who are chasing high-yield, high-risk investments given that traditionally safe investments (e.g. bonds) have tanked to record lows. The “”markets”” have become manipulated signaling devices with no reality-based price discovery function. The “”markets”” relentless trend higher regardless of good news or bad, signals to the masses that “everything is fine!“–until it isn’t. The “smart money” has been getting out of the market and of those that haven’t, they’re engaged in pump-and-dump operations. They’ll get out through the few remaining exits, while the majority will get trapped inside collapsed “”markets””. nCoV just might be the Black Swan catalyst for a series of cascading economic and social failures. My guess is that TPTB are/have been prepping for this outcome for a long time, and will likely benefit on the down side–if they don’t lose total control.

    “It has been more than two weeks since the planes carrying infected people to the US and Europe, and not one fellow passenger or crew member has become contaminated.”

    How do you know that for certain? There is still much we don’t know about this virus given the limited and questionable data available. Now with a 24-day incubation period possible and asymptomatic infectivity, it may be too early to identify those infected individuals.

    And what do we know about the nCoV “recovered”? Do they remain infective after, and if so, how long? The media and passengers are reporting on the status of quarantined cruise ship passengers and crew, there’s been very little reported about the status of repatriated citizens and travelers under quarantine. Where are the first-person stories, the warm homecoming reunions of families cleared from quarantine, or recovered if sick? No updates posted on FB, Instagram, Twitter by individuals or loved ones about life during and after nCoV quarantine?  Its like they entered a witness protection program-style information/communication blackout. Maybe our media and authorities are taking some tips from the CCP censorship playbook.

    “I find that reassuring. Premier Xi believes the warm weather in April will mitigate the spread of the virus.”

    And why does Xi (and Trump) believe that? Is this based on science or spin? Where’s the evidence and it is reliable? And even if true, will the warmer temperatures be sufficient enough to off-set the multiple biological and systemic variables already well underway that will drive this nCoV outbreak into a full-blown worldwide pandemic?

    I’m glad you feel reassured by Xi’s and Trump’s hope-inspiring words. I hope their assurances plus your $200 worth of defensive supplies will be enough to keep you and your loved ones safe and healthy if this pandemic explodes.

    For me, I plan for the worst and hope for the best rather than rely on the pacifying assurances of “leaders” whose interests may or may not coincide with mine.

     

     

     

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  • Tue, Feb 11, 2020 - 1:17pm

    #35
    MariaDWhite

    MariaDWhite

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    Update on Brighton UK cases

    The Council (local government) are furious at being kept out of the loop:

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/feb/11/brighton-councillor-coronavirus-threat-hidden-samer-bagaeen

    Anybody who thought democratic countries would do better at transparency than China may be about to discover otherwise.

    There are reports of more GP surgeries closing. Three so far:

    https://www.theargus.co.uk/news/18227707.coronavirus-brighton-another-gp-surgery-closes/

    The story is that they were all visited by a GP that caught the coronavirus in France and then came to Brighton. Though other stories mention two health workers infected:

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/health/coronavirus-brighton-gp-county-oak-medical-centre-nhs-uk-outbreak-test-a9327446.html

    Initial reports were that the man walked into the local hospital, now they have been corrected. Makes you think whether it was known, when the story broke out, that healthcare workers were infected, and journalists were hunting for a plausible explanation. Which wouldn’t be needed if they knew how it happened, and why wouldn’t they be told? Maybe because the truth is another plausible explanation: by the time that contact tracing got to this man, he already had symptoms and had gone to his doctor, not knowing he possibly had this coronavirus. That would also explain why local councillors are saying things like that this has already spiraled out of control.

    The name of the man that started the cluster is Steve Walsh. It rings a bell, I used to be involved in nonprofit activities in Brighton and he’s been described as a scout leader. Probably he was involved in other charitable activities and events. I’ll try to see if I can find any further information from my contacts.

    There are also reports of more suspected cases. Probably the news of the virus has led to more cases of people reporting in the area. But if any of those becomes a confirmed case unrelated to Mr Walsh, I would start asking: How come there are two clusters in Brighton (a small city) and zero in London? Does that look remotely likely?

     

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  • Tue, Feb 11, 2020 - 1:27pm

    #36
    Matties

    Matties

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    Posts: 98

    Return favours

    China is ruled by gangsters. The proces of truth finding is not to be found.

    US is ruled by Chinese bought or terrorized ‘business’ people.

    From DARPA many unicorns sprouted. Who got the IPO ?

    These tech companies are now suppressing the normal people.

    Let us name them, shame them and then lame them…

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  • Tue, Feb 11, 2020 - 1:29pm

    Reply to #30
    VeganDB12

    VeganDB12

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    4+

    If USA overreacted then so did China

    My local department of health is accepting the 3 day incubation period, 1 percent mortality data.  They are also telling school staff that it’s not necessary to put masks on people who violate quarantine and show up at school before day 14, just put them aside and call the health department.   My question to them is how confident are they?  Would they sit in a room of new arrivals from an epicenter, with no PPE in the room, on day 4 after exposure to the virus?  It is still very early and while I respect the doctors and hope they are correct the risk of being wrong is quite high.  Typhoid Mary comes to mind, one person with a 24 day incuation period could innocently infect many people. It is quite a quandry.

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  • Tue, Feb 11, 2020 - 1:32pm

    Reply to #20
    Sparky1

    Sparky1

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    Oil as market indicator; Dave's PM forum here on PP

    Oil markets may be less subject to money-printing manipulation, but still subject to geo-political manipulation. Given that the petro-dollar system still rules trade and politics (for now), declining price of oil below threshold (e.g., $55/pb I’ve heard) increases the likelihood of conflict or war.

    In the short-term, conflict and war increase demand (and price) for oil as militaries are the biggest consumers of oil.  Defense-based stocks increase as demand for weaponry and war-related equipment and supplies increases. Oil supply shocks (e.g., tanker bombing, impeding or closing oil supply transportation routes) may also increase price of oil.

    PP member Dave Fairfax has a much better understanding of “”markets”” and economic drivers and indicators. You can find his outstanding analysis and charts, and informative comments by other PP members on the PP PM forum:  https://www.peakprosperity.com/forum-topic/pm-daily-market-commentary-02-10-2020/

     

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  • Tue, Feb 11, 2020 - 1:54pm

    Reply to #16
    mEad0w.larK

    mEad0w.larK

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    Diamond Princess U.S. Infected Passenger

    So, this woman from Oregon only found out she has the virus by answering “yes” on a questionnaire that she takes over the counter pain medication (Tylenol, Advil etc). She had no symptoms. Because of her answer, she had a throat swab and was found to have the virus and was transported to a hospital in Tokyo. This is a 10 minute interview. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TAafDOqfN3M  Hopefully, her symptoms don’t escalate and she makes a full return to health. Her husband is still on the ship and so far has tested negative. https://www.ctvnews.ca/video?clipId=1896470

    So how many others have no idea they have this virus and are walking among us all over the world? How many others on that ship are infected and haven’t been tested? If they let them go after 14 days, they may still have the virus and pass it on exponentially. I’m just thinking out loud. Thoughts from others welcome.

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  • Tue, Feb 11, 2020 - 2:06pm

    Reply to #26

    kleymo

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    lung scaring a life saver

    A side note on lung scaring. My father had very severe pneumonia in about 1940. At the beginning of 1942 he was drafted, but rejected as 4F. They told him he had lung cancer. It took him the whole war to figure out he was not going to die of cancer.

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  • Tue, Feb 11, 2020 - 2:06pm

    Reply to #19
    Galway87

    Galway87

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    Maybe this is why Trump and Xi believe warm weather will make a difference:

    Expert says survival of virus declines with warmth.

    https://www.yahoo.com/news/coronavirus-expert-says-knows-virus-204850255.html

     

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  • Tue, Feb 11, 2020 - 2:10pm

    #37
    MonK

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    Coronavirus could kill 45m warns top Hong Kong medical official

    Look at this in the New Zealand Aoteaora media today..

    https://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/news/article.cfm?c_id=2&objectid=12307892

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  • Tue, Feb 11, 2020 - 2:13pm

    #38

    AKGrannyWGrit

    Status Bronze Member (Offline)

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    Posts: 547

    More Ideas

    Another novel idea?

    If the virus were indeed a weapon wouldn’t it be interesting to have someone do a deep dive on the stock market and see if people were uncharacteristically profiting from the stock market during the early days of the virus? Cui bono – who benefits?  Just would be interesting but not enough to do the digging.

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  • Tue, Feb 11, 2020 - 2:36pm

    #39
    annie

    annie

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    Patient zero

    Does anyone know much about patient zero and what time this patient became symptomatic?  Now knowing from Chris’s recent video that the incubation period is up to 24 days it would then be easier to gauge precisely how long this has been travelling around theoretically, especially given it’s got such a high RO.

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  • Tue, Feb 11, 2020 - 2:38pm

    #40
    Matties

    Matties

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    who benefits?

    I made a mistake.

    From the beginning i said that Chinese wouldn’t kill Chinese on purpose.

    This i still hold firm.

    Either it was a mistake or foreign.

    I still hold firm.

    Then i said, because the Chinese released the genetics almost immediately, that chances where the Chinese where responsible.

    Now, i don’t know that even by biggest chance. You grow… I just don’t know.

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  • Tue, Feb 11, 2020 - 2:39pm

    #41

    George Karpouzis

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    Posts: 157

    2+

    China releases new numbers: 1,638 cases and 94 deaths

    China is no longer reporting asymptomatic cases lol. The new data dump “shows” declining new cases.

    There are currently 44,754 confirmed cases worldwide, including 1,112 fatalities.

    The international case numbers are as follows
    478 confirmed infections with 2 fatalities. Of the 478, about 130 of them are on the cruiseship Diamond Princess. I saw a youtube video where the lady that was confirmed infected and released from the ship described her symptoms and said it was mild.

    Just gotta be honest here, my level of concern about this outbreak is dropping more and more. If this bug is here to stay then I can worry about it more if it ever becomes widespread in my area (southern california). Lets be honest here, so many people came from China before the travel ban was announced so by now there would be a bunch of sick people in Socal. But crickets. I’ve stocked up more than enough which I’m glad. Until I see more data for my local area I’m going to tune out a bit.

    Cheers

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  • Tue, Feb 11, 2020 - 2:42pm

    #42
    yagasjai

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    6+

    Physician Recruitment Observation

    One of the things I do for a living is recruit physicians, which means I spend a lot of time calling doctor’s offices all over the US. Today I am recruiting Family and Internal Medicine docs in CA and for the first time heard a recording that plays for anyone on hold saying that if you had traveled to China recently or had contact with someone who did, to please inform the person you speak with.

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  • Tue, Feb 11, 2020 - 3:09pm

    #43
    Sparky1

    Sparky1

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    Posts: 305

    ** UoT-developed interactive model, study suggests nCoV oubreak began mid-Nov.; link to model

    Using conservative assumptions, University of Toronto researchers developed an interactive model (link below) that indicated the nCoV outbreak started earlier (mid-Nov.) than commonly reported (mid-late Dec.). The study and results were published in the Annals of Internal Medicine. (link below).

    Chris and others here may want to play with the interactive model to develop different scenarios (e.g., different Ro). Apparently the case report data are uploaded (source?) daily.

    Model built by U of T researchers suggests coronavirus outbreak began in November, has yet to be controlled

    “The coronavirus epidemic started one month earlier than is commonly reported and has yet to be brought under control, a new disease-transmission model created by University of Toronto researchers suggests.
    Using open access data that are updated daily, the model replicates epidemiological scenarios and allows researchers to test narratives about the outbreak that originated in Wuhan, China – including the notion that it started in December.”

    https://www.utoronto.ca/news/model-built-u-t-researchers-suggests-coronavirus-outbreak-began-november-has-yet-be-controlled

    Reporting, Epidemic Growth, and Reproduction Numbers for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) Epidemic

    https://annals.org/aim/fullarticle/2760912/reporting-epidemic-growth-reproduction-numbers-2019-novel-coronavirus-2019-ncov

    Interactive UoT nCoV model:  https://art-bd.shinyapps.io/nCov_control/

     

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  • Tue, Feb 11, 2020 - 3:22pm

    Reply to #19
    westcoastdog

    westcoastdog

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    Stock markets don't care

    The world stock markets during the past few months have increased in value by $trilllions, much, much, more than the Chinese government support. The US and Europeans governments do not prop up the equity markets.

    It is established science that sunshine and heat kill viruses, which is the reason the flu season is during the winter.  Premier Xi was just mentioning the obvious. Below is an interview with a virologist. Heat and sunshine may save India from catastrophe.

    https://www.yahoo.com/news/coronavirus-expert-says-knows-virus-204850255.html

    Three day incubation:

    https://www.straitstimes.com/asia/east-asia/research-shows-3-day-median-incubation-period-for-coronavirus

    As I mentioned elsewhere, I bought $200 worth of defense goods, masks, etc. I doubt I will use much of them.

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  • Tue, Feb 11, 2020 - 3:44pm

    #44

    sand_puppy

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    8+

    500 Wuhan Medical Staff Infected--as of Mid January--when only 41 were officially reported

    Supporting the premise that we are not being given straight numbers by the CCP,

    South China Morning Post, Feb 11

    At least 500 Wuhan Medical Staff infected by coronavirus 

    At least 500 hospital staff in Wuhan had been infected with the deadly new strain of coronavirus by mid January, multiple medical sources have confirmed, leaving hospitals short-staffed and causing deep concern among health care workers.

    While the government has reported individual cases of health care workers becoming infected, it has not provided the full picture, and the sources said doctors and nurses had been told not to make the total public.

    The reason for this edict was not explained, but the authorities have been trying to boost morale among frontline medical staff, especially following the death of Li Wenliang, who was killed by the disease weeks after being reprimanded by police for warning colleagues about the new virus….

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  • Tue, Feb 11, 2020 - 3:45pm

    Reply to #19
    Sparky1

    Sparky1

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    Thanks, James. Apparently nothing to worry about: nCoV is just like a "severe cold"; will burn out in 5-6 months ;-)

    Thanks, James, this is interesting, but not especially convincing, IMO.

    It seems odd that this information was provided not by/through health or medical venues, but through a private conference organized by a brokerage house for the benefit of investment analysts:

    “In a private conference call organized last week by CLSA, a brokerage firm based in Hong Kong, investment analysts had a chance to ask Nicholls, one of the world’s foremost experts on the topic, questions about the novel coronavirus. News of the private conference call was first reported by The Financial Times….”

    Other excerpts from the article that make me question Mr. Nicholls’ (he’s a professor, does not have his MD or Phd) assumptions and conclusions (bold added):

    “Nicholls also said that he doesn’t consider SARS or MERS, a Middle Eastern novel virus that spread in 2012, to be an accurate comparison for this year’s outbreak. Rather, the novel coronavirus most closely relates to a severe case of the common cold.”

    “Compared to SARS and MERS, we are talking about a coronavirus that has a mortality rate of eight to 10 times less deadly to SARS to MERS,” Nicholls is quoted as having said on the conference call. “So, a correct comparison is not SARS or MERS but a severe cold. Basically, this is a severe form of the cold.”

    “Similar to a common cold, the surrounding environment of the outbreak plays an important role in determining the survivability and spreadability of the virus, he continued. Because of the impending shift in seasons, Nicholls said he expects the spread of the virus to be curbed in a matter of months.”

    ‘”I think it will burn itself out in about six months,” Nicholls said.”

    Here’s the transcript of the call. (I haven’t had a chance to go through it.):  https://www.fwdeveryone.com/t/puzmZFQGRTiiquwLa6tT-g/conference-call-coronavirus-expert

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  • Tue, Feb 11, 2020 - 3:55pm

    #45
    Matties

    Matties

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    Posts: 98

    Pfff...

    “Three things the virus does not like: 1. Sunlight, 2. Temperature, and 3. Humidity,”

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  • Tue, Feb 11, 2020 - 3:55pm

    Reply to #19

    dtrammel

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    Feds Haven't Propped Up The Equity Market?

    The world stock markets during the past few months have increased in value by $trilllions, much, much, more than the Chinese government support. The US and Europeans governments do not prop up the equity markets.

    Wow, where have you been while the Federal Reserve has pumped billions into the repo market since September?

    https://www.peakprosperity.com/wtf-what-the-fed/

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  • Tue, Feb 11, 2020 - 3:56pm

    #46
    gkcjrrt

    gkcjrrt

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    2+

    Reporting all cases or just Pneumonia??

    This is from the Hubei province Health Committee (official) – have google translate as needed.  Note that the new cases specifically call out pneumonia:  “1638 new cases of pneumonia”  

    http://wjw.hubei.gov.cn/fbjd/dtyw/202002/t20200212_2024650.shtml

     

    Perhaps this is all lost in google translation, but reading it makes you think the numbers being reported are those with pneumonia, which would be a minority of actual people with the virus itself – most who get mild symptoms.

    Anyone who can read chinese and report on what the announcement actually says would be greatly appreciated.

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  • Tue, Feb 11, 2020 - 4:01pm

    #47

    saxplayer00o1

    Status Silver Member (Offline)

    Joined: Jul 30 2009

    Posts: 3082

    44,789...... Deaths: 1,112 Recovered: 4,529

    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

     

    Scroll down and look at the numbers.

    19% of active cases are serious or critical.

    Scroll down a little more and you’ll see that there still are not many cases out of China.

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  • Tue, Feb 11, 2020 - 4:04pm

    #48
    kristen braun

    kristen braun

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    Posts: 11

    2+

    39 new cases confirmed on Cruise ship

    This was just posted on the BNO News case Tracker https://bnonews.com/index.php/2020/02/the-latest-coronavirus-cases/

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  • Tue, Feb 11, 2020 - 4:10pm

    #49

    saxplayer00o1

    Status Silver Member (Offline)

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    Posts: 3082

    1+

    44,838 Deaths: 1,113

    Deaths:

    1,113
    ==============
    Scroll down. Still not much of a jump in cases outside of China

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  • Tue, Feb 11, 2020 - 4:22pm

    Reply to #19
    Tom Sammy

    Tom Sammy

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    Re: James Nicholls expert summary to investors

    I read through the transcript, interesting  perspectives . Some of his commentary is shoot from the hip predictions (guesses). I think his points about many chinese not tested/under testing is valid.

    In other comments I think he may be wrong/misinformed (see pic below).   The Reports i’ve read indicate high transmissibility.  This includes the 138 case report which details how a large group of hospital staff were infected….

     

    https://www.fwdeveryone.com/t/puzmZFQGRTiiquwLa6tT-g/conference-call-coronavirus-expert

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  • Tue, Feb 11, 2020 - 4:37pm

    Reply to #19
    wyrldtraveler

    wyrldtraveler

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    Posts: 40

    Low number of infected

    Not one has been reported as infected

    This is the problem.  If we depend on ‘official’ reporting, we will be led like the sheep, or worse, like the lemmings over the cliff.

    It is best for ‘official reporting’ if everyone believes the official narrative and nothing is happening here and life is to return to whatever ‘normal’ is supposed to be.

    Remember that stored food is somehow magically ‘wasted’ if you never eat it.  And we all know that you won’t eat food that you already have!  Silly humans only eat food bought within the past 72 hours with funds approved by Mr. Emmanuel Goldstein!  How could you forget your brainwashing, I mean education by public schools so many years ago?

    There is a Chinese-manufactured pharma drug to help you with those nagging worries which wake you up at night.  Nothing to see here.  You are a paranoid conspiracy theorist who sees empty pharmacy shelves and no masks or food available.  Grab another bag of Cheetos!

     

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  • Tue, Feb 11, 2020 - 4:38pm

    Reply to #41
    Tom Sammy

    Tom Sammy

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    Re: no cases in So Cal

    That’s because the ninja viruses arch enemy is the 80 degree and sunny weather there!

    😎

    George, I can respect your views and wanting to check out a bit.  Sometimes I find it draining to always search for latest updates.

    Realistically, I wouldn’t expect any news of significant outbreaks in the US until late March/April ( If there ever is any big outbreaks period).  I would guess China has been in a transmission cycle for at least 3 months.   Plus I would expect any spread in US to be slower than China given our increased sanitary conditions and knowledge gained from China’s experience.

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  • Tue, Feb 11, 2020 - 4:50pm

    #50
    nordicjack

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    Censorship of american media is out of control - revolt

    I am really angry at what is going on in the USA.   And its one thing for drs and others to express thier ridiculous opinions, buts its another to censor media all together.  Facebook and instagram have now censored all coronavirus searches to what they consider credible sources ie the CDC. this is reckless.. I guess the US is out of control because they know what is coming well appears they are about finished. AND revolt will soon ensue.

    https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/tanyachen/instagram-coronavirus-cdc-warning

     

    And I have finally officially boycotted google. Their results have become really bad over recent mos and years and continuing to become worse and worse each day.. They have become unusable and since there are better alternatives “duckduckgo” who doesnt track your every move,  I have changed all my browsers default search, and no longer use them “at all” and I am a web marketer by profession, and i will not use them , advertise with them ( but that is another story ) . I have cut out facebook too and instagram is done as well.

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  • Tue, Feb 11, 2020 - 4:58pm

    #51
    Desogames

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    NO basis for this

    Just want to be clear. I’ve got no basis for this other then looking at patterns for too long. But if i look at the below chart (courtesy of worldometers) That’s what i see.

    And the reason i think they’re doctoring the numbers this way is to “force” factories to open again. See people, it’s all clear, nothing to see here, go back to work.

    Communism is all about (well not all but a lot) production targets. These cannot be met, so people lie and say that they are. So if you can hit those production targets, next time, they’re a little higher, and the lie gets a little bigger. This is unsustainable of course. Eventually a watershed event shows the corruption and everything collapses.

    Funny thing i was talking to a Russian friend about this the other day because he said the whole situation reminded him of Chernobyl.

    The line follows the pattern of an outbreak too neatly. If you look at the actual SARS outbreak it’s a really choppy line. The below was drawn with paint.net, using a simple bezier curve with 4 points lol.

    If i where to reassure people that the outbreak or even the worst is over, i’d expect the above line. Almost exactly.

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  • Tue, Feb 11, 2020 - 5:13pm

    #52
    Mr Curious

    Mr Curious

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    Posts: 64

    Disconnect in number of cases

    In light of the zillions of airline flights between the US and the Wuhan during January 2020, I don’t understand why there aren’t more than 13 cases. Of course, I don’t want more cases, it just seems low. Maybe there’s some good news there for our ability to contain it since we aren’t so crowded.

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  • Tue, Feb 11, 2020 - 5:30pm

    Reply to #51
    Sparky1

    Sparky1

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    Posts: 305

    Interactive model for retrospective view of nCoV cases based on current reported data

    Desogames, you may find this study and link to an interactive model developed by the University of Toronto interesting. Using sliders, you can change some of the variables and assumptions to graph results.  Here’s the info with the link from my post earlier today:  https://www.peakprosperity.com/coronavirus-up-to-24-days-before-symptoms-start-showing/#comment-331571

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  • Tue, Feb 11, 2020 - 5:30pm

    Reply to #52
    nordicjack

    nordicjack

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    Posts: 88

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    Regarding disconnect of numbers

    dont worry its out there , the US is done.  This cannot be contained.  look at the cruise ships.  Yes they are in close quarters. However,  the time this virus lives on surfaces, its obvious incubation period ( reference US 13th Case ) dictates that this is here and its not going to be stopped.  It just takes a long time to develop to illness due to incubation plus time to get severe, then time to succumb.    And with all that, it will still be missed.   Viruses are like bacteria as they are quantitative for them to  multiply.. ( exponentially )   the first weeks of the culture will be slow.. and then it gets a head of steam.    it took a month or little longer after its discovery to realize it was an issue.    Then it has to mushroom a bit to get enough numbers to get just a few spread around the globe – this all happened in mid jan- 3rd week of jan..  We will need a good month to 5 weeks to see where were are at.  I dont expect the issue to show in the US before 28 of Feb to 10 of March.. And then you can post this same question.  The US will not quarantine , they even stated they do not agree with china shut down and isolation together ,” its like closing the barn door after the horses have left”  they are already in the camp – there will be no isolation and no quarantine.  They will play with the numbers worse than the chinese – and let everyone know this is not fatal.. its mild.. We will see less than 1% death rate by far.. The US would never publish more or true numbers.  They need to control social unrest in their own way.. they will down play it limits its exposure on media – censor the media – which is already being done. they will be ambiguous to real questions and real facts.  and they will keep you in the dark . You are just a number – a game they have no problem with.. it will be no where near the concern in numbers of fatalities to bother the US officials..  They wont burder the medical costs.. in fact they are looking at as a win win– kills the oldest population.. save millions in medicare and ssa costs.. WIN win.     No problem,  if the US could have created a virus – this would be the one,, Which they may have.. according to the chinese -and wouldnt put it past the US govt.

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  • Tue, Feb 11, 2020 - 5:52pm

    #53
    Nordic_Mist

    Nordic_Mist

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    Posts: 6

    2+

    Past the peak

    I live in Singapore. Singapore has a very tight control of everything and has been quarantining every close contact of every known case. IE a very high rate of discovery of infections is likely. So far number infected, 47, number dead, zero. The last 2 days only 2 new infections identified each day and more patients are now leaving treatment having recovered than being diagnosed. In China, number of new infections collapsing and has now dropped to approximately half from peak.

    https://www.straitstimes.com/singapore/health/coronavirus-2-new-cases-in-spore-including-man-who-works-at-rws-casino-2-more

    Many countries in Europe are still accepting tourists from China (excluding Hubei province) and still no explosion of cases. And remember, even though max incubation time may be 14 or even 24 days, the average incubation time is FAR lower – approximately 3 days.

    https://www.straitstimes.com/asia/east-asia/research-shows-3-day-median-incubation-period-for-coronavirus

    This is a storm in a teacup and it is close to blowing itself out.

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  • Tue, Feb 11, 2020 - 6:00pm

    Reply to #43
    annie

    annie

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    Thank you Sparky

    Thanks for helping me find info on Patient zero and how long this thing has been going on.  My son went to Vietnam but had two 24 hour stop overs in China coming back Christmas day.  His brother has been sick for the past few days with a horrendous headache, body aches.  Could be regular flu or not I’m not sure but now his girlfriend has it and her lungs hurt.  Makes me wonder.  She’s a nurse and I’m trying to figure out what to do.  Pretty unlikely but not impossible and seeing in Canada we can’t even get a test unless someone was in China very recently AND develops symptoms, how would we ever know?  Should I post this on the forum generally to get people’s advice?

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  • Tue, Feb 11, 2020 - 6:02pm

    Reply to #5
    Nordic_Mist

    Nordic_Mist

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    UP to 24 days - average 3 days

    https://www.straitstimes.com/asia/east-asia/research-shows-3-day-median-incubation-period-for-coronavirus

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  • Tue, Feb 11, 2020 - 6:15pm

    Reply to #52
    Nairobi

    Nairobi

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    The cost of isolation is too high

    I think we have got to weigh the costs here. The Chinese model of containment points to economic collapse if it goes on long enough. Not just for them but for all of us.

    We know where this is going. At some point the healthy will just carry on and the sick will get left behind. Nothing ever changes with human nature. Only fear keeps people confined right now but patience with that has almost run out already.

    The economy will restart. Let the chips fall.

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  • Tue, Feb 11, 2020 - 6:35pm

    #54

    AKGrannyWGrit

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    The cost of containment is too high?

    Yeah………….. unless it’s YOU who need a hospital bed and respirator, or your child.

    Everybody else………….

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  • Tue, Feb 11, 2020 - 6:36pm

    #55
    Desogames

    Desogames

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    Models are useless at this point

    Sparky1 we just lack too much accurate data. Models are only as good as the data fed into them and once the truth comes out I’ve got a feeling all the models will be adjusted.

    I’ll put the most faith into the earliest studies and reports actually. Bureaucratic machines are big, lumbering, slow. There was a good period between somewhere around the 15th when zero hedge started reporting on it and after the lock down of Wuhan when information started to become restricted that a few good bits of info came out.

    Let’s not forget that the first study that came out with an R0 number was a study that put it at R3.8 to 4.0 and that same study was adjusted down within a day to the 1.8 to 2.5 number Chris was using in his video. It’s obvious now that was due to political pressure and not science.

    I jumped on this as early as it was reported on ZH, not because i have any knowledge about viruses (heck i even don’t have a high school diploma) but because i’m autistic and i’ve learned how normal humans behave.

    And when i saw persistent rumors (AKA rumors that come into existence independently from each other but neither can be verified so they continue to be rumors) about the asymptomatic spread, with the official channels *down*playing every aspect of the virus… i knew it was bad.

    If it wasn’t bad; it would’ve been blown out of proportions so the CCP could swoop in and “save” everybody. Communism Loves a Hero story.

    And lies. Many lies. And Obedience. Strict Obedience. The bosses expect results; paper or otherwise. Underlings can’t deliver so they lie more and lie harder. People who lie get promoted; those who don’t get gulagged. This breeds and promotes incompetence, as only the incompetent will spend more effort on lying then actually producing while the competent and their conscience get silenced.

    On that note; the reason i’ve checked back here; another important news message:

    https://www.zerohedge.com/health/angry-people-will-no-longer-be-afraid-1000s-chinese-miltarypolice-quarantined-dozens

    I mean this makes sense. Remember the images of the medics going to wuhan? They wheren’t exactly using full body gear now where they? and we knew the hospitals where out of resources before the military came in. Plus the reports that boxes have stacked up at the red cross, PLUS that the military is now in full control of all medical provisions in hubei.

    It might very well happen that the truth is gonna come out together with complete societal collapse of china; and then we’re in a real pickle.

    EDIT: Adding this link as well. Same subject. However it shows also how infectious this thing really is; or how little supplies they really have in Wuhan. Remember; all of it is under military control at the moment.

    https://www.scmp.com/news/china/society/article/3050077/least-500-wuhan-medical-staff-infected-coronavirus

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  • Tue, Feb 11, 2020 - 6:59pm

    Reply to #54
    Nairobi

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    What happens during wars?

    After a huge military battle has finished and the villages count their dead soldiers do the people stop farming and just starve while they grieve? I am only speaking to a truth we all know is self evident. Whatever the cost we shall carry on. That is human nature and has nothing to do with the emotional aspects of any given disaster.

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  • Tue, Feb 11, 2020 - 7:08pm

    #56

    AKGrannyWGrit

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    The Truth

    The truth is determined by those in power.  Look at how this subject us being censored.

    Our jobs were off-shored to China and now we are supposed to feel bad for the economy?  For greedy, indifferent corporation’s?  Our owners are afraid of us!  Yep we the people who are supposed to die so the economy can rock and roll.  How about we get pissed and demand change!  Remember Rosevelt stepped up and created change after the depression cause he was afraid of what the people would do.

    Acquiescing will not help us.

     

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  • Tue, Feb 11, 2020 - 8:03pm

    #57
    Tom Sammy

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    China not counting Positive cases

    In case you missed this update, remember China has now stopped counting positive cases that are asymptomatic in their daily infection data.  The belief is this will help support the image of decreasing cases.   This makes their already garbage suspect data even worse…….

    https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/3874490

     

     

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  • Tue, Feb 11, 2020 - 8:30pm

    #58
    Galpin

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    comments from a friend with Shanghai factory

    The authority likes to think it has gained a good grip on the spreading of the deadly virus, but much remains to be seen for the following reasons. One, as of February 11th, the total confirmed case is 42,747 and the death 1,017, which seems a bit too low from what originally announced mortality rate of 4%. To say the very least the figures reported daily are definitely on the conservative side as all information released through the news outlet is sanctioned by the government which regards political stability as the ultimate guarantee for China’s continued development and prosperity. Up to this day even through the conservative official news media, there is no discernible trend suggesting the emergence of new cases are in the decline. Two, with the extended Chinese New Year holiday finally coming to an end, vast number of migrant workers once again swarm into big cities to work. And along with those migrant workers they bring worrisome possibility of spreading the virus they caught during holiday at their hometown: they use public transportation, they live in densely populated districts with each of them remain in close proximity to one another.

     

    The central government has intensified its pressure on each provincial government to keep tight control of the flow of its people as the first line of defense to stymie the further spread of coronavirus. So each province is now making its own rules to regulate how people live and how business be allowed to resume operation. In Shanghai, there is not a declared rule that prohibits the reopening of our factory, but we are having a difficult time to proceed. What our factory learnt was that it needed to have X number of facial masks on hand along with X amount of hand sanitizing solution, etc. Once our factory can prove that it has all the necessary precautionary measures in place, it can then apply for permit to start production. The problem is that the facial masks are nowhere to be found, no matter the price! For private citizen, the government allows each household to register with local authorities for purchasing 5 masks in every five days from local, but no such provision for business. And we are told for all these days factory remains closed we still need to pay the workers as usual. For factories whose labor forces are from other provinces, I am not sure how they will cope with this extraordinary circumstances.

     

    The city’s predicament is that it definitely does not want to see the migrant workers return to Shanghai for fear of them spreading coronavirus and bring down the city; yet it cannot operate without the migrant workers taking on the jobs the local people shun.

     

    We do not see the end of this ordeal although some experts forecast the beginning of the end should be in late March. The scare is palpable everyday and everywhere and it is more so than two weeks ago.

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  • Tue, Feb 11, 2020 - 8:44pm

    #59
    wyrldtraveler

    wyrldtraveler

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    Anger at China? At whom?

    Our jobs were off-shored to China and now we are supposed to feel bad for the economy? For greedy, indifferent corporation’s? Our owners are afraid of us! Yep we the people who are supposed to die so the economy can rock and roll. How about we get pissed and demand change!

    Ayn Rand perhaps had the best suggestion: Let it suffocate under it’s own weight.

    At some point people will begin to realize that we are human beings and not cogs in a corporate/national/tribal machine.

    We will reform in local communities and begin making solutions which do not involve participating in any massive regime of money/power/control.

    People will create their own software, manufacture locally with 3D printing technology (or the old-fashioned way), produce their own food.  Logistics will still exist, but on the scale of modern-day buggy whip manufacturers.

    The leaders will be there.  Their [paid] cheerleaders will be there.  The meeting halls will be empty: no crowds will form, no one will vote for them.  They will be irrelevant.  They may get bored and go home.

    And a new era will dawn.

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  • Tue, Feb 11, 2020 - 9:10pm

    Reply to #19
    westcoastdog

    westcoastdog

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    Equity markets

    For those unfamiliar with the stock market vocabulary.

    Equity Market Definition – Investopedia

    http://www.investopedia.com › Investing › Markets › Stock Markets
    Mar 29, 2019 – Equity markets are the meeting point for buyers and sellers of stocks. The securities traded in the equity market can be either be public stocks, which are those listed on the stock exchange, or privately traded stocks.
    Institutions, not individuals, invest in repos. The Chinese government controls companies and can get active in the market directly or by ordering companies to purchase stocks.

     

     

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  • Tue, Feb 11, 2020 - 9:11pm

    #60
    nordicjack

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    Why the name change?

    nCoV-2019  to COVID-19    – I just dont see what the problem with nCov was it was novel for 2019 – we are not in 2019 anymore so there is no chance of have a more novel coronavirus.. so this seems pretty dumb to me.

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  • Tue, Feb 11, 2020 - 9:15pm

    #61
    Bleep

    Bleep

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    Warm weather vs. Cold

    If temperature impacts the virus, then the incidence should be much lower in Hainan Province which is at the same latitude as Hawaii’s Big Island and more prevalent in Heilongjiang Province which is at the same latitude as Siberia. Probably not enough cases to see a statistically significant difference yet, but that is what I would expect.

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  • Tue, Feb 11, 2020 - 9:16pm

    Reply to #53

    davefairtex

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    past the peak?

    Nordic Mist-

    I live in Singapore. Singapore has a very tight control of everything and has been quarantining every close contact of every known case. IE a very high rate of discovery of infections is likely. So far number infected, 47, number dead, zero. The last 2 days only 2 new infections identified each day and more patients are now leaving treatment having recovered than being diagnosed. In China, number of new infections collapsing and has now dropped to approximately half from peak.

    Singapore sounds like it is doing a fantastic job dealing with infections from China.

    How do you imagine Cambodia, Laos, and Myanmar are doing?  Do you imagine there are cases there?  Are they being tracked?  Are they even being detected?

    How about Malaysia?  Rumor has it, a fair number of Malays work in Singapore.  Is Singapore paying attention to them?  I bet they won’t,  until cases start appearing.

    All it takes is a single infected asymptomatic traveler to kick things off in any of these developing countries.  And their healthcare systems are NOT up to Singapore standards.

    I’m going to suggest that Singapore is probably the very best case situation in Asia.  Furthermore, Singapore appears to have adopted “rational thought” (i.e. dealing with things honestly, even when unpleasant) while the CCP optimizes for “social harmony” (bury the crappy stuff whenever possible, as deeply as possible, “shooting the messenger” reflexively).  As a result, I trust the numbers out of Singapore.  I do not trust the numbers from the CCP.

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  • Tue, Feb 11, 2020 - 9:18pm

    #62
    nordicjack

    nordicjack

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    Just looking at the new information page by the CDC monkeys

    wow , its really convoluted and hard to navigate its not intuitive for what you need to know – you have to look hard through various links to and tabs and pages to get very little information which could be consolidated into one paragraph.  For the most part the information is fairly correct, with out any supposition and most factual context.. but its not helpful for people who really need interpretation and understanding what this means..  But alas.. there is some information which if you cant tell the truth – you should just not publish it all together. here it is ..

     It’s currently unclear if a person can get 2019-nCoV by touching a surface or object that has the virus on it and then touching their own mouth, nose, or possibly their eyes.

    That we know is clearly BS , and they know it as well.    people getting from cabs that sick people where – buildings 10 stories below.. and ski resorts – other sick guests were at….  And additionally, there are multiple studies showing this can live on surfaces far longer than the flu – one study found 5 days another 9 days.   so , there is blatant misinformation.. probably something that is very important to the spread and needs to be conveyed to the public/..  yeah so yeah..  convoluted website not helpful and then trying to be ambiguous to the actual implications.. and then catching the outright being untruthful about something important to convey .

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  • Tue, Feb 11, 2020 - 9:42pm

    Reply to #60
    Nairobi

    Nairobi

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    The official name for Spanish flu is H1N1

    I imagine WHO is trying to imprint a name for this illness before the public creates its own. Otherwise, a hundred years from now the name of this flu will be known as Wuhan Virus in our collective memory and it will never be forgotten. The same way we call H1N1, Spanish flu.

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  • Tue, Feb 11, 2020 - 9:59pm

    #63
    schmidtma01

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    Holy &$!#. R0 4.7-6.6

    This study was just published that calculated an R0 of 4.7-6.6, with an initial outbreak doubling time of 2.4 days. The effect of the intense quarantine measures has just been to effectively lower the R0 to 2.3-3.0. While I can’t vouch for his work, I did go to graduate school with one of the authors FWIW.

    https://www.medrxiv.org/content/medrxiv/early/2020/02/11/2020.02.07.20021154.full.pdf

     

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  • Tue, Feb 11, 2020 - 10:07pm

    Reply to #53
    Nordic_Mist

    Nordic_Mist

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    Singapore

    Singapore is definitely doing a very thorough job. How effective it is will have to be evaluated at a later stage. Every arriving passenger is screened for a fever at arrivals, including all workers from Malaysia. However, as less than half of Corona Virus patients show a temperature during the early phase of the disease this probably produces more false positives than actual positives.

    What is interesting is that there have only been two cases in the Nordic countries in Europe (Sweden and Finland) despite very little monitoring and a huge number of tourists arriving to see the Northern Lights. I was recently in Oslo and there were thousands of Chinese tourists milling around and nobody seemed in the least worried.

    I work for a company with offices in both Singapore and Oslo and there has always been a huge difference in perception of risk, with Norwegians much more willing to accept a degree of risk than Singaporeans. The response of the governments to the current situation is very much in line with these very ingrained cultural differences. What will be interesting is to evaluate carefully by the end of the year what was the most effective approach. How many of the people quarantined in Singapore will test positive for the virus? Did it make sense to quarantine so many people? Time will show.

    I could add that there are current estimates that almost half of the patients in Wuhan were in fact infected IN a hospital. IE if the response had been to say that everybody should stay at home unless VERY ill then the spread might have been greatly limited.

    https://edition.cnn.com/2020/02/07/health/coronavirus-hospital-transmissions-study/index.html

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  • Tue, Feb 11, 2020 - 10:09pm

    Reply to #53
    Nordic_Mist

    Nordic_Mist

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    Indonesia

    Certainly all my Indonesian friends don’t believe the 0 number of infections. But perhaps its not such a bad thing? 🙂 No panic. Less spread of disease?

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  • Tue, Feb 11, 2020 - 10:12pm

    Reply to #60
    Mr Curious

    Mr Curious

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    name change

    the new name didn’t make sense to me either. The official statement said something to the effect that the new name doesn’t imply any particular ethnicity. A sign of our times, I guess, when 2019-nCOV sounds too racist.

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  • Tue, Feb 11, 2020 - 10:13pm

    Reply to #53
    Mr Curious

    Mr Curious

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    No panic

    why would less panic cause less spread? It seems like this could cause people to unwittingly spread it around?

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  • Tue, Feb 11, 2020 - 11:16pm

    #64
    Alexis

    Alexis

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    Particulates/ pollution in air worsening pneumonia?

    Is it possible that the air quality/ pollution is worsening the disease for patients in China? Especially the very industrial cities? I thought about this due to my own child’s severe response with poor air quality (toxic mold- long story) but after correcting the air quality and removing all offending environmental issues, she’s had a drastic improvement in her allergic type, reactive airway, viral induced asthma like Respiratory symptoms that she only gets when she is sick. We also relocated out of the city and notice a huge improvement in outdoor air quality as well, less street pollution.

    Found this very interesting article:

    https://cen.acs.org/environment/persistent-pollutants/Linking-pollution-infectious-disease/97/i11

    I was reading about the Th2/cytokines and all those pathways and it really dawned on me how the air quality could also be a factor in the increased ACE II/2 production as it is increased in smokers. I believe I read that the Australia fires is the equivalent to smoking 1.5 packs of cigarettes a day, and that made me think about the pollution in China. Surely the burning of ?, the aerosolized disinfectant, coal, and other industrial chemicals may be adding insult to already very hard working immune Systems tasked with a new respiratory cleaning job? They keep saying the patients have lymphopenia, but how does pollution/ air quality effect lymphocytes and the cytokines And immune systems in general? Could air pollution be a contributing factor to cytokine storms and ARDS in some people. nCov + pollution particulates + chemical pollution = swamp soup in the lungs, not to mention the likely scarring already from pollution damage. 🙁 Maybe that’s why the kids are fairing better? They have less chemical exposure and possible toxicity than the adults? Thinking I’m going to add some detox to our health supplements!

    The more I wait and watch for stories in the US, and the more I hear how bad flu is this year, the more I wonder if this isn’t already circulating more than we realize. I suspect our flu season is shadowing the nCov already circulating in the US. I think there will be many negative flu swabs right now with patients reporting flu like symptoms or maybe those terrible spells of norovirus are really not norovirus after all right now. Didn’t a cruise ship just turnaround today due to norovirus? Is it possible the ncov could mutate to be a GI only virus?? Lots to speculate about.

    I’m going to look for med journals on pollution re pneumonia/ ARDS/ respiratory distress And Th2 dominant and ARDS/ respiratory distress. After having the aha moment tonight about the worsened prognosis due to the pollution I am slightly less freaked out tonight than I was before. However, I’ll be honest, the kids and I haven’t left our property since 01/20 because I don’t want to be the first ones out of the gate getting this if we dont have to. If we even get one case in Houston or surrounding, my husband will stop going to work to protect kids. I probably have 3-4m of food easily at this point with some staples for longer… Bc food allergies. Harder to get the food we need. :/ I’m no longer buying fresh fruit due to all the handling and only vegetables that are easily soak washed (avocado). Stocked up on many vitamin c containing frozen veggies (broccoli, cauliflower, spinach) and dried fruits. But that’s our usual staples. Sea salt is our best friend for adding much needed flavor to simple dishes.

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  • Tue, Feb 11, 2020 - 11:19pm

    #65
    Monakha

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    Children not spared either as the news says!

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0mITdt8BtmU

     

    Another leaked video from China

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  • Tue, Feb 11, 2020 - 11:27pm

    #66
    Sparky1

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    Chris' newest YouTube nCoV video: vaccine, cytokine storm

    Coronavirus – the potential for a vaccine and understanding the cytokine storm!

    https://youtu.be/HrqRAtViUZw

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  • Wed, Feb 12, 2020 - 4:28am

    #67
    Andy_S

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    BEST Article I Have Yet Seen On The Severe ECONOMIC Impact

    This is from the Telegraph in the UK-

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2020/02/11/china-cannot-fight-coronavirus-avert-economic-crisis-time/

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  • Wed, Feb 12, 2020 - 4:31am

    #68
    Andy_S

    Andy_S

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    Posts: 50

    Page of Charts Showing China ECONOMIC Slowdown

    Charts of traffic in China, etc. – showing it has all collapsed-

    https://www.capitaleconomics.com/the-economic-effects-of-the-coronavirus/

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  • Wed, Feb 12, 2020 - 4:35am

    #69
    pat the rat

    pat the rat

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    how

    If the China start up manufacturing,how do we know that the meds we need will be safe?

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  • Wed, Feb 12, 2020 - 6:05am

    #70
    yagasjai

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    Question: New Posts Feature- Jump To Last Post You Read

    Is it my imagination or did we used to have on this site a feature where it says the total number of comments and then next to it is how many new comments there are since you last looked at it? For example, 168 comments (12 new) and you could click on the 12 new and jump right to the first post you hadn’t already read? I could have sworn it used to work this way and realize it’s not the top priority for the PP team right now (nor should it be)! But if there’s a setting I accidentally changed on my end that I can change back or if it’s something that had to be sacrificed on the change of platforms or something and you are considering adding it back, I would find it very useful if that feature someday returned.

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  • Wed, Feb 12, 2020 - 6:14am

    Reply to #69

    dtrammel

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    About the safety of medications (and other products) out of China

    If the China start up manufacturing,how do we know that the meds we need will be safe?

    Good question. I can see a few possibilities

    1) The lack of trained replacement workers causes an increase in errors, resulting in bad medicine or a decrease in supplies.

    2) The lack of supplies or ingredients (down supply chain suppliers having to deal with #1), results in a slowdown of medicines or increases error rate.

    3) Needing money, manufacturers ship known bad ingredients, or ship medicines with bad ingredients which they would normally pull from selling.

    4) Lack of production during quarantine phase results in overseas (US, EU, rest of World) demand for quick supply resulting in contaminated packaging (lack of time for virus to naturally degrade).

    China already has a history of shoddy or incorrect products, this will only get worse due to the economic disruption.

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  • Wed, Feb 12, 2020 - 7:04am

    Reply to #60

    Quercus bicolor

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    Name change

    So would naming a virus after the city in which it emerged be racist against the ethnic majority of that city? Or would it be embarrassing to the  government of the nation in which that city is located which just happens to be a major funder of WHO?  You decide.

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  • Wed, Feb 12, 2020 - 7:12am

    #71
    wheresdavid

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    It’s the pneumonia everybody in China knows about’ – but many deaths will never appear in official coronavirus figures

    Wuhan’s overburdened health workers are unable to confirm many of those who died were suffering from Covid-19, which means they will not show up in official figures

    https://www.scmp.com/news/china/society/article/3050311/its-pneumonia-everybody-china-knows-about-many-deaths-will-never

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  • Wed, Feb 12, 2020 - 7:50am

    #72
    Tom Sammy

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    Patient re-admitted to hospital after US quarantine

    This makes me wonder about the testing accuracy and the nature for symptoms to re-occur or appear after several weeks.  I pray that the girl is ok and fully recovers.

    https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.nbcsandiego.com/news/local/girl-3-readmitted-to-hospital-after-coronavirus-quarantine/2262227/%3famp

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  • Wed, Feb 12, 2020 - 8:10am

    Reply to #25
    Mike from Jersey

    Mike from Jersey

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    In response to Oliveoilguy,

    Sure,  I was there myself at the beginning of the outbreak and I am in regular contact with her as she is staying there for a while with her parents.

    I was impressed with the response of the government before I left. Within a week of the outbreak, you could not even enter an airport without being met by two guards who would not let you enter unless you consented to a “forehead temperature check.” That was not true in either of the airports where I changed flights while returning to the US, i.e. Seoul, South Korea or JFK. In JFK airport customs workers actually herded people together into tight queues in order to get them through passport control. I remember thinking that they were just asking for trouble, contagion, by doing that.

    Since I left China, there have been the following changes.

    First, you cannot get into a grocery store unless you are wearing a mask. They will simply not let you in.

    Second, economic activity is vastly slowed down. If you go out on the streets (and, mind you, this is a city almost the size of New York City)  you can walk two blocks or more and see, perhaps, four or five people. Virtually, everyone you do see will have masks except some of the elderly. The fact that the elderly sometimes don’t have masks is just a cultural thing. Don’t read anything more into that fact.

    Third, as of this week you can’t get into or out of residential buildings without notifying authorities with your “WeChat” app (which is a common smartphone app in China, much like Whatsapp.)

    Fourth, people with the virus are often quarantined in their own residences. Sometimes entire apartment buildings are quarantined.

    Fifth, initially, supplies like rubbing alcohol (which is used as a disinfectant) and face masks had run out. The government told private suppliers to make as much of such products as they could. The government guaranteed producers that if the spread of the virus abated, that they producers need not worry about producing too much inventory since any excess would be purchased by the government. This has effected a re-supply of those products. My girlfriend recently was able to buy rubbing alcohol but was limited to one bottle at a time. I am not sure if that restriction was government mandated or not.

    Sixth, there is a tremendous societal response to the infection. For instance, people use disinfectants to clean doorknobs or just about anything else that could bring infections from the outside to the inside.

    Seventh, the general feeling is that the government response has been fantastic. Even broadcasts from neighboring countries are commending China on the government response.

     

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  • Wed, Feb 12, 2020 - 8:13am

    Reply to #19
    Kgluong

    Kgluong

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    Many scientists been saying it be over in the summer due to warm weather. They advised the politicians so world leaders across the world said it will end in the summer. Big mistake. Singapore have over 90 degree weather and it about to explode there. So don’t count summer to save the world.

    This is a chaos virus. It is a bundle of surprises. Design for maximum chaos. China is a communist dictatorship society and actually helped nCoV achieve it maximum chaos abilities by censorship, lack of origination, and leadership.  The worst mistake was to denied there was a virus running amok. The second worst mistake was blanket quarantine.Putting the healthy with the sick only made it worse. Targeted quarantine would have been a better solution.

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  • Wed, Feb 12, 2020 - 8:14am

    Reply to #25
    Kgluong

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    The second biggest mistake China made was blanket quarantine. It actually made things a lot worst.

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  • Wed, Feb 12, 2020 - 8:21am

    Reply to #68
    Kgluong

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    China is doomed. Their system was not design to handle the nCoV.

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  • Wed, Feb 12, 2020 - 9:04am

    #73

    saxplayer00o1

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    A virus is crippling China's economy — and threatening the world's

    Coronavirus likely now ‘gathering steam’

    LIPSITCH: The ease of transmission is still being confirmed. In terms of the so-called “R-nought,” or how many secondary cases a single case infects, experts’ assessment is getting tighter around a level of transmissibility that’s perhaps lower than SARS, which was about 3 and higher than pandemic flu, which can be up to about 2. But what makes this one perhaps harder to control than SARS is that it may be possible to transmit before you are sick, or before you are very sick — so it’s hard to block transmission by just isolating confirmed cases.

    https://news.harvard.edu/gazette/story/2020/02/harvard-expert-says-coronavirus-likely-just-gathering-steam/

    ==========================

    From a rumor to 1,000 deaths: How the coronavirus outbreak unfolded for Americans at the epicenter

    Sunday, Jan. 5: Reports of a virus

    John McGory, a teacher in Wuhan originally from Youngstown, Ohio, first hears about a virus from his brother in Columbus. The unknown virus was reported Dec. 31 and has already sickened dozens. He is making plans to travel to Cambodia before returning to Ohio in March after six years living in China.

    https://www.usatoday.com/in-depth/news/nation/2020/02/12/coronavirus-wuhan-china-americans-document-covid-19-spread/4700434002/

    ==========================

    Coronavirus outbreak ‘just beginning’ outside China, says expert

    The coronavirus epidemic may be peaking in China where it was first detected in the central city of Wuhan but it is just beginning in the rest of the world and likely to spread, a global expert on infectious diseases said on Wednesday.

    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-health-singapore-interview/coronavirus-outbreak-just-beginning-outside-china-says-expert-idUSKBN2061KK

    ==============================

    WHO Denounces Claim of Potential 60% Coronavirus Infection Rate

    The Guardian published the estimate made by Gabriel Leung, the chair of public health medicine at Hong Kong University, early Tuesday morning.

    https://www.usnews.com/news/world-report/articles/2020-02-11/who-challenges-claim-that-coronavirus-could-infect-60-of-global-population

    ============================

    A virus is crippling China’s economy — and threatening the world’s

    In the locked down provinces, home to more than 140 million people, the gross domestic product (GDP) exceeds 10.6 trillion yuan ($1.5 trillion USD). There are nearly 100 million residents in the four municipalities, where the GDP typically is over 12 trillion yuan ($1.7 trillion USD). Among the top 10 economic performance cities, all except one have been in the state of lockdown.

    https://thehill.com/opinion/finance/482528-a-virus-is-crippling-chinas-economy-and-threatening-the-worlds

     

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  • Wed, Feb 12, 2020 - 9:17am

    #74
    km64

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    Coronavirus Is Bad. Comparing It to the Flu Is Worse

    Good article…

    https://www.wired.com/story/coronavirus-is-bad-comparing-it-to-the-flu-is-worse/

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  • Wed, Feb 12, 2020 - 9:33am

    Reply to #49

    saxplayer00o1

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    Update to info in my link...Cases in Japan, Hong Kong and Singapore

    Please scroll down

    ACTIVE CASES
    39,241
    Currently Infected Patients
    31,025 (79%)

    in Mild Condition
    8,216 (21%)

    Serious or Critical

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  • Wed, Feb 12, 2020 - 9:33am

    #75
    BillL

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    Very interesting view from Clif High.  Clif  has a very interesting take about this virus.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TLHnuxqeTWg

    Sometimes he is hard to follow intellectually as a mathmetician/ IT person but not here.  If you’ve been looking into this much, here’s 44 minutes well spent.

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  • Wed, Feb 12, 2020 - 10:09am

    #76
    Vilbas

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    re: name

    I’ve been affectionately referring to it as “the Ronus” for a couple of weeks now. The WHO can term it whatever it wants, doesn’t mean the average person will utilize it.

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  • Wed, Feb 12, 2020 - 10:24am

    #77

    saxplayer00o1

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    Gloves?....We don't need no stinking gloves!

    Video funded by the Chinese government. Oops

    Volunteers help quarantined people, senior citizens with daily errands

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  • Wed, Feb 12, 2020 - 10:58am

    #78
    shareminator

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    The elephant in the room

    Chris,

    many thanks for your great work. Thanks of you I have been able to prepare my family and my closest friends.

    I only want to share two thoughts

    1) The elephant in the room is in my humble view Africa with 0 corona virus cases. I would be really surprise if that is the current case considering the large presence of Chinese personnel involved in the mining industry and in the construction of the local infrastructure. Lack of testing kits more likely… Is the hot climate the only thing that can prevent a spread in Africa ? Will pandemic spread through Africa to the rest of the world ?

    2) I find ironic that China has been able to develop 5G the fifth generation of wireless technology  for digital cellular networks offering much faster data download and upload speed and yet they seem reluctant to stop their censorship habits and share some vital data with the rest of the world. Only Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus seem to believe in Xi Jinping fairy tails….

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  • Wed, Feb 12, 2020 - 12:12pm

    #79
    nordicjack

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    Stock markets love this - make no sense to me

    I must be at a loss – that they are buying this as not just ok news but something that will send the economy soaring.  I guess if its health care sector.   but that is 25% of or nations gross product.. we are a nation of sick people dependent on a useless system that does more harm than good and costs more than anywhere on earth…

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  • Wed, Feb 12, 2020 - 12:40pm

    #80
    Dutchman

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    Ethnicity of the Cruise Ship passengers?

    Does anyone knows the Ethnicity (not the nationality) of the Cruise Ship passengers that are tested positive for the Corona Virus?

    Interesting to see if there are (many) non-Asian passengers among them. If so then we can soon expect something here in Europe and the US

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  • Wed, Feb 12, 2020 - 12:49pm

    Reply to #79
    ezlxq1949

    ezlxq1949

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    Re: Stock markets love this - make no sense to me

    Broken Window Fallacy? Whistling past the graveyard? Sheer desperation?

    So far in Australia few coronavirus cases but we are feeling increasing consequences, e.g. tourism industry suffering from travel ban from China, and one fearful landlord evicting a Malaysian student.

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  • Wed, Feb 12, 2020 - 2:01pm

    #81
    nordicjack

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    re name

    Covid sounds like some kind of bioweapon installation of the USA.    They said they woudl not name it for a geographic region country or ethnicity.. well they did a good job of that with MERS.   So, I guess that was ok but this isnt.  Never the less, I am all for the kung flu,     its just a lot easier. and everyone will know what you talking about.  And that is with no intent to be racial or offensive.. its asian and it kicks ass.

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  • Wed, Feb 12, 2020 - 2:20pm

    #82

    saxplayer00o1

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    Chinese funeral home overwhelmed as coronavirus body count soars: Staffer

    Chinese funeral home overwhelmed as coronavirus body count soars: Staffer

    When asked about the real situation in Wuhan, the source said the truth is that the current workload is unbearable and that 40 to 50 more workers would be needed to meet the demand. She added that the number of bodies they receive daily has been accelerating at an extraordinary speed and that it is hard to keep pace even with 11 cremation furnaces……………………………….

    According to the latest figures issued by the Chinese government, 1,110 people have lost their lives to the coronavirus, and 44,370 have been infected. However, based on the account of the Wuhan funeral home staffer, the daily average number of bodies suspected of being coronavirus victims is estimated at 225, or 4,725 bodies, at a single Wuhan funeral home since Jan. 22.

    https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/3875039

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  • Wed, Feb 12, 2020 - 2:45pm

    #83

    saxplayer00o1

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    Posts: 3082

    1+

    New study raises coronavirus concerns | NTDTV (Video)

    New study raises coronavirus concerns | NTDTV

    According to interviews with two funeral homes inside Wuhan, everyday the funeral homes cremate 4 to 5 times as many bodies as before the coronavirus outbreak. There’s no official figure yet about how many corpses are burned in all of Wuhan’s funeral homes, as the information is censored. On the other hand, many patients aren’t tested for the coronavirus. If they die, their death isn’t labeled as virus-related, which makes it even harder to get an accurate number. But based on investigations, it seems likely the number of bodies being cremated in a single day in Wuhan already exceeds the official figures of the total death toll.

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  • Wed, Feb 12, 2020 - 2:49pm

    #84
    Matties

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    Chinese numbers garbage

    I do not know why anybody wants calculations with Chinese concocted numbers.

    Garbage in, garbage out.

    I still hold the “Chinese meme” that Asians are far more prone to this disease.

    Japanese should be very aware and awoke to use this word.

    Overfull (ICU) hospitals are at risk to spread the virus especially for the staff.

    Temperature is going to save the day if SARS is a good indication and i think it is.

    Yes, new 2019 nCoV or whatever they call it, Wuflu, might have surprises but it is still corona, hiding with bats in caves in cold, away from the sunlight.

    The biggest risk coming summer in Hong Kong is in air conditioned places.

    And be aware of cured cases, they can be shedding virussen up to 80 days.

    During the epidemic in days with lower air temperature the risk of a larger SARS epidemic in the community was 12.82-fold (95% CI 4.22–40.00, P<0.001) higher than that in days with higher air temperature (i.e. a temperature >24.6 xC) (Table 3). An increase of 1 xC in air temperature was associated with an average reduction of
    1.6 patients.

    https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2863430/
    https://www.researchgate.net/publication/221812681_The_Effects_of_Temperature_and_Relative_Humidity_on_the_Viability_of_the_SARS_Coronavirus/link/553b28bc0cf2c415bb09005d/download
    https://www.researchgate.net/publication/7287344_Environmental_factors_on_the_SARS_epidemic_Air_temperature_passage_of_time_and_multiplicative_effect_of_hospital_infection/link/56d63d7908aebabdb4005814/download

    https://academic.oup.com/cid/article/42/11/1561/282653

     

     

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  • Wed, Feb 12, 2020 - 3:04pm

    #85
    Tom Sammy

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    New Study from Covid labs reveals Peak Prosperity Youtube Secrets

    A new study published by Covid Labs LLC reveals startling insights about Peak Prosperity videos. The study found that viewers stayed away from “sciency clinical videos” and “economy laden” and came in droves for “early revelations” “secretive chinese conspiracies” and “prepper friendly” titles….and apparently nobody cares how Ncov affects men!  🧐

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  • Wed, Feb 12, 2020 - 3:28pm

    #86
    MariaDWhite

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    Update on Brighton UK

    Not much new, except that the number of people potentially affected keeps getting bigger:

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7994583/A-E-medic-coronavirus-Virus-fear-grips-UK-NHS-hospital-worker-eight-deadly-bug.html

    Some of those reports sound very much like some of the people isolated initially started showing symptoms, and their contacts are now being traced.

    People locally have been receiving a text message advising that people with respiratory symptoms that have recently traveled to Asian countries should self-isolate and call a medical helpline for instructions. It explains the sudden appearance of suspected cases. But why did they send the text just to Brighton residents? Are the health authorities trying to bring up as many cases as possible in Brighton for some reason?

    Especially when experts are saying breezily on the BBC that they think they’re picking up just one in three cases of the virus and that this is the early stage of a pandemic:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51481469

    So, if that’s the case, what’s the plan?

     

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  • Wed, Feb 12, 2020 - 3:46pm

    #87
    Matties

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    So, if that’s the case, what’s the plan?

    https://www.pirbright.ac.uk/news/2020/01/pirbright%E2%80%99s-livestock-coronavirus-research-%E2%80%93-your-questions-answered

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  • Wed, Feb 12, 2020 - 4:15pm

    #88
    Matties

    Matties

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    Posts: 98

    Where is my post ?

    I know that i am not always political correct but just posted something twice.

    The first time it was not showing up.

    The second got a response, seemingly from peak prosperity “i posted twice the same” and now i am at a loss…

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  • Wed, Feb 12, 2020 - 4:27pm

    #89
    kristen braun

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    Explanation of numbers today

    At the bottom of Worldometer’s page, I found this explanation for the surge in numbers February 12:

    Report from Hubei: 14,840 new cases and 242 new deaths. [original document]
    Surge in number of cases due in most part to the adoption of a new diagnosis classification.
    In conformity with other provinces, starting today, Hubei Province will include the number of clinically diagnosed cases into the number of confirmed cases.
    Of the 14,840 cases added, 13,332 are due to the new classification while 1,508 are new cases.
    There were 242 new deaths (including 135 clinically diagnosed cases).

    1 new case in the UK (a Chinese national). First case in London.
    1 new case in Hong Kong and 1 recovered.
    3 new cases in Singapore – “While most infected patients will recover, some may become seriously ill and a small number may succumb to the infection ultimately” said the Minister for Health. Out of 50 total cases, 15 have recovered, 8 are in intensive care.

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  • Wed, Feb 12, 2020 - 4:29pm

    #90
    Sparky1

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    Chris' newest YT video (2/12): COVID Threat Greatest in Cities & Other Densely Populated Areas

    Catching-up on all things PP, didn’t see this posted yet:

    Coronavirus Threat Greatest In Cities & Other Densely-Populated Environments

    https://youtu.be/bsg7_h8TiLA

    Not sure why now 3 nCoV videos are not yet posted to the PP website. Maybe the PP site bandwidth just can’t handle the additional traffic as suggested by another PP member.

    The new name will take getting  used to, So when we’re trying to search on the term, which term do we use? Coronavirus, Wuhan coronavirus, new coronavirus, novel coronavirus, nCoV, 2019-nCoV, COVID, COVID-2019, Chris’ facetious “Ninja virus”. Nice to see WHO spending time on the really important stuff.

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  • Wed, Feb 12, 2020 - 4:55pm

    Reply to #90
    nordicjack

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    regarding chris's new video - Singapore

    The prime ministers statement is brilliant.  Its about a strategy , and if and when.  Its useful , something people can appreciate interpret and use.. Not this ambiguous garbage peddled by the US and others.

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  • Thu, Feb 13, 2020 - 9:28am

    #91
    kglad

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    Coronavirus Must See and Follow Youtube Information !!

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qqZYEgREuZ8

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  • Thu, Feb 13, 2020 - 11:17am

    #92
    wyrldtraveler

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    Posts: 40

    2 Military.com articles on case in Africa and last pandemic

    Looking for the militarytimes.com article I had read earlier, I stumbled onto two short, informative articles on military.com:

    Suspected case in Djibouti

    https://www.military.com/daily-news/2020/01/30/coronavirus-case-suspected-djibouti-where-us-and-china-base-troops.html

     

    Spanish Flu and cytokine storms:

    https://www.military.com/military-life/why-spanish-flu-was-able-kill-healthy-wwi-troops.html

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