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    Coronavirus: The Media Says “Shoot The Messenger!”

    The media establishment empire strikes back
    by Adam Taggart

    Wednesday, February 5, 2020, 4:14 PM

Last night, Wikipedia deleted its page on Chris Martenson.

Why?

They declared him “non-notable” — totally ignoring his scientific publications (Nature), appearances in the mainstream media (e.g, BBC, ABC News, Fox News, PBS Newshour, MarketWatch, Yahoo! Finance), speaking appearances at major universities (like Harvard, Yale, Berkeley, Oxford) and government organizations (the U.N., UK House of Commons, US state legislatures, etc).

This is the visible hand of the media “buzzsaw”. The messengers who are not part of the “establishment” are being shot.

We’ve been slammed by the major media (Bloomberg, Mother Jones, etc) for our coronavirus coverage even though they are not challenging us on the science we’re presenting. They’re just smearing us for being a competitor, and for refusing to parrot their “all is fine” narrative.

What we don’t get is why folks are maligning us for advising prudent preparation (NOT fear). Advising more people on how to stay out of harm’s way helps everyone — both the officials in charge of the “greater good”, as well as us as individuals. Isn’t that something to be encouraged?

Anyways, new reports suggest that the Wuhan coronavirus remains highly contagious (10 infected, so far, on a single Japanese cruise ship) and we’re seeing more reports of human-to-human transfer where no party had direct exposure with Chinese nationals.

Meanwhile, the markets remain stupidly ignorant. Sure, its part of the “keep everyone calm” campaign, but it’s not smart for you to fall for it. The global economy is getting clobbered and, soon, stocks will have to care about it — and start falling.

Be sure to stay up-to-date on Peak Prosperity’s ongoing full coverage of the coronavirus outbreak by visiting here.

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77 Comments

  • Wed, Feb 05, 2020 - 4:32pm

    #1

    dtrammel

    Status: Silver Member

    Joined: May 03 2011

    Posts: 804

    6

    Ouch! Don't Piss Off Chris

    Just saw the new video on Youtube. Good response to the push back on your informative videos from TPTB. Looking forward to the discussion here.

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  • Wed, Feb 05, 2020 - 4:45pm

    #2
    Tom Sammy

    Tom Sammy

    Status: Member

    Joined: Jan 30 2020

    Posts: 135

    3

    I hope human health is not being prioritized over $

    It’s disturbing to think if a  passion for protecting our economic interests might be in prioritized over health and human life.   Agree with Chris that both can be important but health is always #1.

     

    There are no shortcuts in life, Sometimes the hard way hurts buts gets the best results. In this case the hard way might involve more transparency by the government and not painting a rosy picture to support complacency.  It might be scary but we may get better results in the end, right?

     

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  • Wed, Feb 05, 2020 - 4:47pm

    #3
    bigpig1

    bigpig1

    Status: Member

    Joined: Sep 09 2008

    Posts: 11

    5

    bigpig1 said:

    I don’t think the commonly and widely held belief, by those in power, that this information will lead to some dystopian panic is the least bit true! Not today.  I’m not sure it was ever true.

    In fact, I believe the obvious efforts to obfuscate the truth is more likely to cause alarm.

    I understand their fear about our fragile markets, but what about just leveling with everyone and asking us in the face of this grave pandemic to do our part to help the economy through a precarious time? Appeal to our patriotism as well as our sense of self preservation!

    By the time the truth becomes self evident, as well as the deceptions and incompetence, no one is going to be in the frame of mind(or body) to want to do their part to help a government that has been lying to them- even if it is in their best interest.

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  • Wed, Feb 05, 2020 - 4:58pm

    #4

    dcm

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: Apr 14 2009

    Posts: 133

    7

    Badge(r) of Honor

    Remarkably adapted. Able to dig out just about anything. Often misunderstood. Recently seen on national television hunting with the coyote - another savvy and clever beast - praised and honored by our native culture. Wear your badger badge well Chris. What may have worked a few years back, is pathetic and transparent today.  The more they TRY to discredit heroes like you, the more it flies in their face and, perhaps, in all irony, helps reveal the truth.

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  • Wed, Feb 05, 2020 - 5:00pm

    #5
    Tom Sammy

    Tom Sammy

    Status: Member

    Joined: Jan 30 2020

    Posts: 135

    2

    Reuters- 20 now infected on ship?

    10 more reported......and I never saw confirmation that all passengers were tested...earlier reports said only 237 tested?

    Not a good situation but at least a massive departure of these folks into the population can be mitigated?

    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-health-japan-cruise-idUSKBN1ZZ360

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  • Wed, Feb 05, 2020 - 5:01pm

    #6
    MattRoss72

    MattRoss72

    Status: Member

    Joined: Jan 24 2020

    Posts: 9

    7

    Shooting the messenger

    Great response Chris! While you are right on, it seems that the typical response is to immediately deny facts and place blame. Why? To draw attention, any attention, away from the situation at hand. We live in a “reality” based scripted world, just listen to an main media outlet. While the reporter is different, different location, different voice, sex, etc. the story is the same, scripted. We may never know the whole story until it’s too late. Then, someone will pop up and suddenly say “I told You so” thank you for being thorough, honest and concise in your research. I appreciate it as well as everyone else within the PP group.

    Regards, Matt - North Dakota

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  • Wed, Feb 05, 2020 - 5:04pm

    Tom Sammy

    Tom Sammy

    Status: Member

    Joined: Jan 30 2020

    Posts: 135

    1

    Cruise Ship - this story identifies 20 total out of just 273 tested

    https://www.afp.com/en/news/826/ten-more-cruise-ship-japan-have-new-coronavirus-local-media-doc-1oq6ls5

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  • Wed, Feb 05, 2020 - 5:13pm

    #8
    planfortomorrow

    planfortomorrow

    Status: Member

    Joined: Dec 28 2017

    Posts: 155

    4

    I have already been save from contracting the Corona Virus:

    Chris, this work of which is your calling is why I follow you. If you have saved my life or my words have saved the life of my closest friends or family member because I have credibility with them and I show them what you are saying then they take logical steps for their family, then you are certainly to feel very good about yourself. Quite seriously you have saved their lives.

     

    Chris, I have never cared what others think or how they react to me because they simply do not know me at all so I give them no time at all.

     

    I agree, trust is key but, I never shut out any person that has the credentials and speak on what they know. This is inclusive of you. I'm not nearly as harsh as you sound. Then again, we have our biases, you too, and get set in our minds about things and frankly is harmful to be so judgmental.

     

    You are who I come to in cases like this to get a serious and focused opinion about what is real and what isn't.

     

    China is lying, no doubts. It doesn't make them bad but, if they are not doing their level best to isolate this Virus then the World must respond and help them and that will be next. All boarders will be closed, hell, Trump might even get his wall built in 5 days like the hospitals in Wuhan and the Democrats will probably make certain it does.

     

    This Virus is for real, no question about that and you came to us early and frankly was an easily proactive chore. I already have everything I need in my pantry, freezers and stock room such as masks, fuel, food and all things to hole up in my home for weeks to avoid contacting this Virus. Another test that passed.

     

    My only concern is my wife is a career professional nurse and I worry for her safety. Not yet but, I encourage her to be very careful.

     

    Screw the media Chris, their liars, liars, liars. and controlled useless minds. Peace

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  • Wed, Feb 05, 2020 - 5:15pm

    #9
    PenchantForHoarding

    PenchantForHoarding

    Status: Member

    Joined: Feb 03 2020

    Posts: 14

    13

    Spreading Word to Friends/Family/Colleagues

    Office-bound corporate Dad with a family of 4 based in NYC/Brooklyn here.  Don't judge, we have a rural house 100 miles outside the city.  Therein, I have a closet filled with 6 months of shelf stable food, basic home protection, and have 600g of water storage in the basement.  Lots of land on a wetlands preserve, large established garden.

    So my wife, select family and friends have tracked my prognostications, grumblings, cynicism, and alt news coverage through the silver fiasco (big losses from 2011), ebola, "prepping," financial collapse and.... well, you know.  Now this.

    They don't take risk seriously, furiously scrolling through Instagram frivolousness vs news, consumed with selfies vs thoughts of being self-sustaining.  They think I'm nuts.

    It's a lament more than a question: when society has such addictive blinders on, obsession with triviality, and you (we?) have no more credibility (shared the crash course with all family and friends when it came out, got a lot of people into PMs etc - and nothing happened but endless stock market ramp!) - how do you get anyone to take you seriously?

    Long time reader but only recently joined.  Chris/Adam - amazing coverage - thanks for what you guys do.  Looking forward to joining the conversation.

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  • Wed, Feb 05, 2020 - 5:27pm

    #10
    NorthElkhound

    NorthElkhound

    Status: Member

    Joined: Feb 06 2020

    Posts: 35

    6

    AFRICA

    I am very concerned that we hear nothing out of Africa. Aren't there hundreds of thousands of Chinese building the New Silk Road? How many went home for Lunar New Year?

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  • Wed, Feb 05, 2020 - 5:27pm

    #11
    kic88

    kic88

    Status: Member

    Joined: Feb 06 2020

    Posts: 1

    1

    Possible to comment/analyze Singapore data

    Hi Chris, could you help take a look at Singapore data, seems a lot of details have been disclosed so far:

    https://www.moh.gov.sg/2019-ncov-wuhan

    Thanks !

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  • Wed, Feb 05, 2020 - 5:35pm

    #12
    Time2help

    Time2help

    Status: Platinum Member

    Joined: Jun 08 2011

    Posts: 2346

    3

    Main Stream Media

    Bunch of ******* ***** *** ******* ************* ******** *********** ***** *** ************* *****.

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  • Wed, Feb 05, 2020 - 5:36pm

    #13
    RebelYell

    RebelYell

    Status: Member

    Joined: Dec 21 2019

    Posts: 105

    1

    Story change significance

    Chris,

     

    Think the significance of the change is not "close contact".  The first version  indicated that the whole 273 were tested.  The second version indicates only 31 were tested.  And 10/31 had the disease.

    Think that has implications for how many more of the 273 might also be infected once/if they test them too.

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  • Wed, Feb 05, 2020 - 5:37pm

    cheapseats

    Status: Member

    Joined: Jan 27 2019

    Posts: 25

    4

    Protect your cache

    Buying a load of stuff doesn’t help your family if you can’t prevent people from taking it from you.  The upstate locals have your bug out spot cased.

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  • Wed, Feb 05, 2020 - 5:43pm

    RebelYell

    RebelYell

    Status: Member

    Joined: Dec 21 2019

    Posts: 105

    1

    Re: Reuters- 20 now infected on ship?

    ^  This.  And we still don't know how many more need to be tested.  Ideally the whole ship needs to be tested at this point, but I doubt they have the test kits yet.  I saw a story somewhere (no link - sorry) that indicated the CDC will be sending out kits to regional centers in the US in a week or two, with each kit capable of 700-800 tests.  So I doubt Japan yet has the capability to run ~4,000 tests in a day or two.

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  • Wed, Feb 05, 2020 - 6:09pm

    #16
    Aprila1

    Aprila1

    Status: Member

    Joined: Feb 06 2020

    Posts: 2

    10

    Honesty is the best Policy

    I started following Chris a couple of weeks ago.  He’s the only one (source) that is honest about the information he finds.  Chris states what may or may not be factual and that the information that he pulls from may change.  He has been very up front about that and if I may say so myself pretty on point.
    I think for the most part, people with any common sense can say, with much certainty that the numbers that are being reported by China are less than factual.
    To be informed is the best way to protect ones self. As the saying goes “knowledge is power”.

    Unlike the rest of the sheep in this world I do my research and decipher what I believe is factual and what is bullshit.

    If this virus burns itself out and does not turn into anything in this country well then I have a little extra food and water and some other things.  But if it does blow up, guess what I’m prepared.

    It’s hard for some people to see that perhaps someone is calling out someone else’s bullshit and wish they were the one who’s who did it first and received the 12,000 additional follower.  Or that Chris has been on point since day one and now his subscribers are now informed citizens.

    Anyway, I appreciate the information you put out there.  I’m a nurse and I feel like as a potential front line person, one has to be informed, whether it’s from my own personal research or finding someone who I believe has integrity and honesty.

     

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  • Wed, Feb 05, 2020 - 6:16pm

    #17
    Mike from Jersey

    Mike from Jersey

    Status: Member

    Joined: Jan 22 2018

    Posts: 89

    2

    Typical MSM

    I am outraged by the personal attacks on Chris.

    This site is a quality production.

    Then again, we have come to expect this from the Main Stream Media.

    Let's recap some of the media's most recent blunders:

    Two years of screaming wall to wall headliners trumpeting repeated "bombshells" on Russiagate. Oops, in the end those two years of coverage was "reportage" of something that didn't even happen.

    .. a military strike against Syria for use of chemical weapons by Assad which turned out to be based upon corrupt data. But the media finds no need to report that fact or to investigate it. After all, why should bombing another country for no reason at all be considered newsworthy.

    ... and Jeffrey Epstein killed himself while two video recorders were both on the blink, all the video tapes were mistakenly destroyed and the two guards tasked with looking in on Epstein were asleep on the job that night - this all allowing the most high profile prisoner since Lee Harvey Oswald to kill himself with no witnesses or record of it. How convenient this is for all the implicated high-profile-power-broker friends of Jeffrey.

    But the media is not further investigating this one. After all, what is there to investigate? The government has already ruled it a suicide. Therefore, it must be a suicide. I mean - the government would not lie. Isn't it the job of the media to trust the government?

     

    Just ask me who I trust, Chris or the MSM.

     

    No, don't even bother to ask.

     

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  • Wed, Feb 05, 2020 - 6:19pm

    #18
    sekrudba@hotmail.com

    [email protected]

    Status: Member

    Joined: Feb 06 2020

    Posts: 2

    0

    Shoot the messenger

    Chris,

    Advice is not cheap and people who has gone through tough times realize advise from whatever source it comes from.Thanks for your wonderful posts and continue the good work and the message is clear in the wall.As per the dashboard "https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6" the number of deaths 564 and confirmed cases of infected crossed over 28k. Every country has confirmed this has spread from person to person and as a proof the japanese ship with 20 confirmed cases. Still people doubt about this pandemic?I have posted similar caution about this  in India but the same has gone unnoticed.But one state in India ---Kerala has declared it as disaster. This is  not because all the three cases from Kerala but because the experience they have gained with earlier Nipah outbreak sometime earlier.The name is new (Corona) but the experience and the protocols they have adopted are same. Kudos to the administration.Other Indian states and  the country is lacking far behind and as usual waiting for official confirmation about the confirmed cases. Like other countries slowly this will raise. One in West Bengal and one in Karnataka/Tamilnadu etc. Are we ready for complete lock down like china's Wuhan. Will the other states and the country will declare disaster?Like China admitting the emergency and shortcomings in handling the crisis.Soon one by one will start saying we thought this can be contained and mortality % is low only not to panic. Person infected in South Korea because of visiting Thailand and Cruise ship example of one Hongkong person. Guys we are only talking about known facts or risks. What about the unknown/unknown?

    Soon the R0 and the mortality % CFR figures will start making some sense to everyone.Hope we fight this battle together and my sincere solidarity with China and their gold standard of locking down Wuhan.

    Chandra

    Bangalore,India

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  • Wed, Feb 05, 2020 - 6:25pm

    #19
    kristen braun

    kristen braun

    Status: Member

    Joined: Jan 29 2020

    Posts: 13

    2

    Number tested on cruise ship is 102

    BNO news report that 20 confirmed infected out of 102 tested.

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  • Wed, Feb 05, 2020 - 6:31pm

    #20
    nordicjack

    nordicjack

    Status: Silver Member

    Joined: Feb 03 2020

    Posts: 730

    5

    Those who critique your work are people who have not evaluated the works.

    That was obvious even in the statements provided by the those that condemned you Chris.      Second, no one found where you were blatantly  wrong or stating wrong information.   The fact that you are conspiracy sites as a reference, is simple.  the govt is never ever truthful completely.  and there is all political agenda's and biased along with other considerations like avoiding social unrest and economic collapse. So they have to spin it and people deserve to be told the truth .. The misconception is that the public cant handle the truth.. and so yes.. there is a conspiracy within the govt.  And I ask any of you.. < not knowing everything.. even with the data we have,  if you are a governor, are you going to sound the whistle?   no, of course not. even us good people would not.. Its not time yet,  we dont know enough. we do know plenty.. and what the problem is we don't provide the truth objectively in the media.. only subjectively.  so, therefore its always dangerous.   people need to be informed of facts.. and let them make their own risk decisions.    anyhow , i will never support or click a link to wikipedia again. and i am writing them to know that they have no right of censorship.  Infact I believe there are legal implications there..

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  • Wed, Feb 05, 2020 - 6:41pm

    #21

    LesPhelps

    Status: Silver Member

    Joined: Apr 30 2009

    Posts: 639

    3

    I stopped supporting Wikipedia last year

    Wiki consistently criticizes my heroes with very flimsy arguments coming from sources without the credentials to support the criticism and without a shred of science, or evidence.

    My hero’s are people like T. Colin Campbell, Neal Barnard, Caldwell B. Esselstyn, John McDougall, not to mention Chris Martenson and Adam Taggart, to name just a few.

    If you are familiar with all these men, you will realize that they share a preference for science and facts over widely held beliefs and status quo.

    And now Chris is deleted from Wiki.  Good for you Chris.  Why would you want to be on that irresponsible infosource?

     

     

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  • Wed, Feb 05, 2020 - 6:44pm

    #22
    westcoastjan

    westcoastjan

    Status: Silver Member

    Joined: Jun 04 2012

    Posts: 462

    5

    Food for thought from another article

    This quote from Prince Phillip, in the article linked below:

    It is an open secret that the modern environmentalist movement’s longest living founder and patron is none other than Prince Philip himself, who co-founded the World Wildlife Fund for Nature in 1961 along with his bosom buddy Prince Bernhardt of Bilderberger fame. Married to the head of the Anglican Church, Prince Philip expressed this misanthropic anti-Christian view of man on multiple occasions over the years and has even publically stated his wish to be “reincarnated as a deadly virus” to solve overpopulation. In a December 1981 People Magazine interview, His royal virus laid it all out when he said:

    “Human population growth is probably the single most serious long-term threat to survival. We’re in for a major disaster if it isn’t curbed… The more people there are, the more resources they’ll consume, the more pollution they’ll create, the more fighting they will do. We have no option. If it isn’t controlled voluntarily, it will be controlled involuntarily.”

    The Coming Collapse of the House of Windsor and the Clash of ‘Two Christianities’

    I know it is in the realm of the unthinkable (so was 9/11...), but I cannot help but wonder what might be at play with this virus behind the scenes. I try hard to keep my thinking reality based and fact driven, but we have seen too much game playing, lies and manipulations at the highest levels across the globe.

    I hope to hell I am way off base but this whole thing is just not leaving me with a good feeling. Couple that with the 'messengers' like Chris being condemned and censored... I fully expect PP to go dark at some point in the near future, if indeed it is perceived as a threat to keeping a lid on this to keep the sheeple dumb and compliant - just the way TPTB like them!

    I will be so happy if I am way off base but I do not think I am. We will know soon enough.

    Jan

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  • Wed, Feb 05, 2020 - 7:03pm

    Sparky1

    Sparky1

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: Jul 21 2016

    Posts: 753

    0

    Africa update: 1 confirmed case nCoV on 2/3/20, other media reports

    Hi NorthElkhound! Welcome to PP. I posted an update on Africa a few days ago on another PP thread, which you can find here:  https://www.peakprosperity.com/why-the-time-to-prepare-for-the-coronavirus-is-now/#comment-306945

    As 2/3/20 there was 1 confirmed nCoV case, with several suspected I believe. I also included links to news articles about nCoV precautions, flight bans, and more. I'll try to include more info about nCoV in Africa in future posts. Please feel free to share any perspectives and information you may have as well.  Welcome aboard! 🙂

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  • Wed, Feb 05, 2020 - 7:06pm

    NotLostYet

    NotLostYet

    Status: Member

    Joined: Feb 06 2020

    Posts: 1

    0

    A completely honest heads up to a friend...a good friend

    You would think that with a 1.4 billion population and diseases coming one after the other... they would seriously consider adopting food regulations before selling it for human consumption.

    The problem with China is that they are trying to become a superpower at the cost of cheap labour and to do that... they neglect the health and well being of workers (check out iPhone factory vids). There is little to no policing of the wet markets and what not since the Gov. is happy they are feeding themselves.

    Now with supply chains being shut down... they are going to find themselves in a worse position. The food is going to start running out. I realize this is just the beginning but it's a great sample size to figure out what will happen globally if this starts to break out.

    I told Row all last week there would only be 2000 cases per day reported and that's exactly what happened... now it's closer to 4000 but that is only because of the additional test kits and the extra manpower/new hospital available.

    You say I'm a little too concerned over it right now... and ya... you're right.

    I said by the end of next week... we will see if this starts spreading in other countries. If it duplicates what is happening near the epicenter of the virus, the world is in deep shit. Economy will bust and it will be everyone for themselves probably for a few years... trying to stay away from it.

    Even scarier, is if it mutates... which coronoviruses often do (hence new flu [which is a coronovirus] shots every year). At the pace this virus is moving around, dont be surprised if it mutates a few times. This has the potential to be a game changer and everyone loves to think optimistically... I also do... but on the other hand... I plan for the worst... that way I can never be disappointed.

    Signed...
    The Worried Neighbour...

    Lol

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  • Wed, Feb 05, 2020 - 7:08pm

    #25

    dtrammel

    Status: Silver Member

    Joined: May 03 2011

    Posts: 804

    3

    Request To All Members - Tag You Location

    St Louis, MO, USA - I wanted to just thank everyone for what a great community of people we have here on the Peak Prosperity website for sharing what their own situation is. Hat's off to Chris and Adam for the way they have responded to this crisis and how they have gone out of their way to keep us informed and apprised with the information we need to make sound decisions for our own safety and well being.

    I've been randomly surfing Youtube and seeing some of the videos people across the World, especially in China, are posting. Wow, who would have thought that when the World ends, it would be documented in video.

    (No I know the World isn't going to end over this, we will survive as a species and continue)

    I had the thought, we are developing a very good network of communication on this forum to keep up to date on developments. Lots of new people arriving and posting for the first time.

    I had a request for everyone, could you start mentioning where you are located when posting about things happening in your area? Like I did at the beginning of this post. I thought this might put some context to your comments.

    Within the bounds of your privacy of course.

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  • Wed, Feb 05, 2020 - 7:12pm

    dtrammel

    Status: Silver Member

    Joined: May 03 2011

    Posts: 804

    0

    Welcome April, Question?

    St Louis, MO - Welcome April to the community. If you don't mind can you give us some sense of where you are and what the management of facility you nurse at is telling the staff about this crisis?

    I have a friend at a nearby large hospital who is talking the line that the flu is worst.

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  • Wed, Feb 05, 2020 - 7:25pm

    #27
    Michael Lipman

    Michael Lipman

    Status: Member

    Joined: Nov 02 2019

    Posts: 4

    2

    Excellent interview of ICU doctor

    https://www.caixinglobal.com/2020-02-06/reporters-notebook-we-interview-front-line-coronavirus-doctor-101512020.html

    If you have trouble viewing try in reader mode - the text is there.

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  • Wed, Feb 05, 2020 - 7:30pm

    Sparky1

    Sparky1

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: Jul 21 2016

    Posts: 753

    0

    Sparse reporting on nCoV in Africa

    First coronavirus case reported in Africa:

    https://www.thesouthafrican.com/news/what-is-coronavirus-latest-updates-first-case-reported-in-africa/

    Johns Hopkins nCoV GIS map does not include 1 confirmed case in Africa. Are they missing other cases, and if so, where is the weak reporting link?

    https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

    Another good source of information, FluTrackers volunteer forum, unfortunately does not yet include Africa:  https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/-2019-ncov-new-coronavirus

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  • Wed, Feb 05, 2020 - 7:30pm

    #29

    dtrammel

    Status: Silver Member

    Joined: May 03 2011

    Posts: 804

    2

    Hand Sanitizer Vs Disinfecting Wipes

    St Louis, MO - A question to the community.

    Like everyone I've been reading way too much news and comments, but the argument over hand sanitizers came up in a FB group.

    The FDA warned the makers of Purell hand sanitizer to stop some of their marketing claims just before this crisis began. Purell made claims that their hand sanitizer killed flu viruses and the FDA said they didn't have the research to back that up.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/28/health/purell-fda-ebola-virus.html?

    Per the article: According to the agency’s warning letter, one company passage said: “Are Purell hand sanitizer products effective against the flu? The F.D.A. does not allow hand sanitizer brands to make viral claims, but from a scientific perspective, influenza is an enveloped virus. Enveloped viruses in general are easily killed or inactivated by alcohol. The World Health Organization and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention are recommending the use of alcohol-based hand sanitizer as a preventive measure for flu prevention.”

    The C.D.C.’s current advice on its website says that washing hands with soap and water is the best way to reduce the spread of germs in most situations. If soap and water are not readily available, the agency recommends using an alcohol-based hand sanitizer that contains at least 60 percent alcohol.

    Gojo’s website states that its hand sanitizers are 70 percent ethyl alcohol."

    In a different article which I can not find, the claim was that alcohol takes several minutes to kill a virus, IIRC as much as a half an hour.

    BUT the chemical disinfectant in wipes kills it very quickly.

    The container of wipes in my house lists two chemicals, Dimethyl Benzyl Ammonium Chloride and Ethylbenzyl Ammonium Chloride as active ingredients.

    Given the difference is kill times, would it make more sense to carry a container of hand wipes to disinfect your hands and surfaces, than to carry a bottle of hand sanitizer?

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  • Wed, Feb 05, 2020 - 7:32pm

    #30
    Mots

    Mots

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: Jun 18 2012

    Posts: 268

    7

    Truth shall set you free

    In an age of complete mass delusion, speaking the truth is a revolutionary act.  That's the issue here.  Those of us (like myself) who dont have much money to spend anymore on media nevertheless need to encourage truth tellers by buying membership in PP to the extent we can.

    In this context, I note that when the printing press invention came out the elite tried to stamp out truth by forcing the licensing of printers.  An analogous revolution with the internet has occurred.  Eventually we individually may need to establish direct connections outside the purview and control of the elite who really do control the internet in myriad ways.   There are interesting ways to communicate peer to peer but that require practical technical knowledge.....  It will be interesting to see if the PP group evolves communications in this direction in response to the growing fascism (merger of corporate and state power to benefit the elite).  A next pivotal step will be more direct interference by banishing CM from  controlled media.............

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  • Wed, Feb 05, 2020 - 7:55pm

    #31
    Tom Sammy

    Tom Sammy

    Status: Member

    Joined: Jan 30 2020

    Posts: 135

    2

    Walter Ian Ripkin Interview - great insight on testing, Ncov vs SARS, vaccines, etc.

    Acclaimed scientist and “virus hunter” is interviewed from China.  Chinese officials requested his help and he said sure! He thinks when the dust settles we are undercounting Ncov cases but maybe overestimating mortality due to mild cases not reported.

    No BS....This guy is the real deal subject matter expert (he helped with SARS outbreak , and got it as a result!) I like his approach - “I’m a scientist and want to help humanity”.

    30 minutes long but definitely worth watching IMO!

    https://youtu.be/Mgl508syq3M

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  • Wed, Feb 05, 2020 - 7:55pm

    kunga

    kunga

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: Feb 26 2017

    Posts: 368

    2

    Wipes

    The USPS sent my local postmaster large spray bottles of the organic ammonium chloride solutions.  To wipe down surfaces.  I will carry gloves and wipes in the vehicle.

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  • Wed, Feb 05, 2020 - 8:15pm

    #33
    johojo

    johojo

    Status: Member

    Joined: Apr 02 2017

    Posts: 2

    0

    The Ministry of Truth (NewSpeak: Minitrue)

    Ironically, I present this excerpt from Wikipedia:

    ”The Ministry of Truth (Newspeak: Minitrue) is the ministry of propaganda. As with the other ministries in the novel, the name Ministry of Truth is a misnomer because in reality it serves the opposite: it is responsible for any necessary falsification of historical events. However, like the other ministries, the name is also apt because it decides what "truth" is in Oceania.

    As well as administering truth, the ministry spreads a new language amongst the populace called Newspeak, in which, for example, "truth" is understood to mean statements like 2 + 2 = 5 when the situation warrants. In keeping with the concept of doublethink, the ministry is thus aptly named in that it creates/manufactures "truth" in the Newspeak sense of the word. The book describes the doctoring of historical records to show a government-approved version of events.”

    How Orwellian of Wikipedia!

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  • Wed, Feb 05, 2020 - 8:17pm

    #34

    Quercus bicolor

    Status: Silver Member

    Joined: Mar 19 2008

    Posts: 427

    3

    Time to avoid social contact yet?

    Tomorrow, a good friend of mine arrives back in Albany, NY, my hometown after several months in Bali.  His airline connection is in the Philippines.  We have plans to go to a large social gathering a couple of hours east of us on Friday evening with friends and activities we deeply cherish.  I'm torn between the pull of this event and the small, but nonzero risk he is carrying the disease. I welcome helpful thoughts, questions and opinions.  What would you do and why?

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  • Wed, Feb 05, 2020 - 8:20pm

    #35
    nordicjack

    nordicjack

    Status: Silver Member

    Joined: Feb 03 2020

    Posts: 730

    1

    Ive been wanting to model the numbers backwards instead of forwards.

    I had some other ideas how to model numbers to get a real intersections of modeling from both directions.   I am not sure how I would want to do this, though I have a few ideas.  I am planning on working a model soon.  But, something more simple for thought, the flu has a hospitalization rate of about 1% infected.  And a death rate of about 1/10th of that.  So, this coronavirus is not hard to compare to the flu in this regard.

    Todays numbers, 28,276 infected(confirmed ), 565 deaths confirmed.  These are numbers easily grasped but it still doesnt give an accurate picture.  2 % would be the given - and this is about 20 times as deadly as flu.  But we could have way way more sick changing those numbers.    so, I am going to use a number other than the above - that gives something more important to work from.   of those current numbers , 3,863 are critical.  ( not hospitalized, but critical )  If this was flu we would be working from this number X (.01) hospitalized = X(.001) dead.   The we are going to make an assumption ( I know its a big leap but stay with me )   the average death rate for ICU patients from all causes is 52%.   So lets assume that half ICU patients never leave the hospital alive.   With this assumption critical flu patients is 2X(.001)    So if we now use X as infected confirmed ( lets say this equals only those who are hospitalized , as in the flu)   28,276=x(.01), then dead would equal 287.  This is quite conservative, the death rate for the flu could be as low as half this number realistically.   But this would indicate a critical care equal to 575 where the infected would be estimated at 280k or so.   The problem I am having, even suggesting all the confirmed cases sought hospital  care, the critical care number of 3863 is far out side the line of agreement with the flu - either more than 2.8 mllion people are infected or this is way more lethal than the flu.  infact that critical number has increased 1100 in one day where the confirmed cases increased 4k.   I expect this critical number to explode as we go exponentially towards infections that are not counted.  I think you could do some additional modeling working backwards here from normal flu mortality counts .. and see this is not even close to agreement.   and this is either way more lethal .  or way more infectious.  my guess is both.    I am going to have to chart this out to make more sense of it as a comparison how you would back chart the flu.   We don't need all the info,  we just need to compare the given to the flu model.  My point is more simple.  With the flu, you would expect an infection rate 250,00 , hospitalization rate of 2500  and 250    and critical rate of 500.    we have a death rate of 600 , infection rate of 28,276 and critical rate of 3870.     This does not resemble the flu in any model.    anyone with input would be helpful.      My point is if you look at only that 2% death rate,  with an arbitrary infection rate, you are not making anything usable.  That is where we are getting hoodwinked.

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  • Wed, Feb 05, 2020 - 8:25pm

    #36

    sand_puppy

    Status: Platinum Member

    Joined: Apr 13 2011

    Posts: 2437

    19

    ICU Doctor in Wuhan describe his experience

    Reporter’s Notebook: Life and Death in a Wuhan Coronavirus ICU

    A front-line coronavirus doctor tells of life in death in the ICU. Photo: Xiao Hui/Caixin

    (Wuhan)--In the coronavirus epidemic, doctors on the front lines take on the greatest risk and best understand the situation. Peng Zhiyong, director of acute medicine at the Wuhan University South Central Hospital, is one of those doctors.

    In an interview Tuesday with Caixin, Peng described his personal experiences in first encountering the disease in early January and quickly grasping its virulent potential and the need for stringent quarantine measures.

    As the contagion spread and flooded his ICU, the doctor observed that three weeks seemed to determine the difference between life and death. Patients with stronger immune systems would start to recover in a couple of weeks, but in the second week some cases would take a turn for the worse.

    In the third week, keeping some of these acute patients alive might require extraordinary intervention [such as ventilator support and ECMO]. For this group, the death rate seems to be 4% -5%.

    The doctors and nurses at his hospital are overwhelmed with patients. Once they don protective hazmat suits, they go without food, drink and bathroom breaks for their entire shifts. That’s because there’s aren’t enough of the suits for a mid-shift change, he said.

    Over the past month on the front lines of the coronavirus battle, Peng has been brought to tears many times when forced to turn away patients for lack of staffing and beds.

    Screening criteria were too tough in the beginning

    Caixin: When did you encounter your first novel coronavirus patient?

    Peng Zhiyong: Jan. 6, 2020. There was a patient from Huanggang who had been refused by multiple hospitals, who was sent to the South Central Hospital emergency room. I attended the consultation. At the time, the patient’s illness was already severe, and he had difficulty breathing. I knew right then that he contracted this disease. We debated at length whether to accept the patient. If we didn’t, he had nowhere to go; if we did, there was a high likelihood the disease would infect others. We had to do a very stringent quarantine. We decided to take the patient in the end.

    I called the hospital director and told him the story, including the fact that we had to clear the hospital room of other patients and to remodel it after SARS standards by setting up a “contamination area,” “buffer area,” “cleaning area,” and separate the living areas of the hospital staff from the patients’.

    On Jan. 6, with the patient in the emergency room, we did quarantine remodeling in the emergency room and did major renovations to the ICU (intensive care unit). South Central Hospital’s ICU has 66 beds in total. We kept a space dedicated to coronavirus patients. I knew the infectiousness of the disease. There were bound to be more people coming in, so we set aside 16 beds. We did quarantine renovations on the infectious diseases area because respiratory illnesses are transmitted through the air, so even air has to be quarantined so that inside the rooms the air can’t escape. At the time, some said that the ICU had a limited number of beds and 16 was excessive. I said it wasn’t excessive at all.

    Caixin: You predicted back in January that there would be person-to-person transmission and even took quarantine measures. Did you report the situation to higher-ups?

    Peng: This disease really did spread very fast. By Jan. 10, the 16 beds in our ICU were full. We saw how dire the situation was and told the hospital’s leadership that they had to report even higher. Our head felt it was urgent too and reported this to the Wuhan city health committee. On Jan. 12, the department sent a team of three specialists to South Central to investigate. The specialists said that clinical symptoms really resembled SARS, but they were still talking about diagnosis criteria, that kind of stuff. We replied that those standards were too stringent. Very few people would get diagnosed based on those criteria. The head of our hospital told them this multiple times during this period. I know other hospitals were doing the same.

    Before this, the specialists already went to Jinyintan Hospital to investigate and made a set of diagnosis criteria. You had to have had exposure to the South China Seafood Market, you needed to have had a fever and test positive for the virus. You had to meet all three criteria in order to be diagnosed. The third one was especially stringent. In reality, very few people were able to test for a virus.

    On Jan. 18, the high-level specialists from the National Health Commission came to Wuhan, to South Central Hospital to inspect. I told them again that the criteria were too high. This way it was easy to miss infections. I told them this was infectious; if you made the criteria too high and let patients go, you’re putting society in danger. After the second national team of specialists came, the criteria were changed. The number of diagnosed patients rose quickly.

    wuhan

    Caixin: What made you believe that the new coronavirus could be transmitted between people?Peng: Based on my clinical experience and knowledge, I believed that the disease would be an acutely infectious disease and that we had to do high-level protection. The virus isn’t going to change based on man’s will. I felt we needed to respect it and act according to science. Under my requirements, South Central Hospital’s ICU took strict quarantine measures, and as a result, our department only had two infections. As of Jan. 28, of the entire hospital’s medical personnel, only 40 have been infected. This is way less compared with other hospitals in terms of percentage of total medical staff.

    It pains us to see the coronavirus develop to such a desperate state. But the priority now is to treat people; do everything we can to save people.

    Fatality rate for acute patients is 4%-5%; 3 weeks determine life and death

    Caixin: Based on your clinical experience, what’s the disease progression of the new coronavirus?

    Peng:  A lot of viruses will die off on their own after a certain amount of time. We call these self-limited diseases. I’ve observed that the breakout period of the novel coronavirus tends to be three weeks, from the onset of symptoms to developing difficulties breathing. Basically going from mild to severe symptoms takes about a week. There are all sorts of mild symptoms: feebleness, shortness of breath, some people have fevers, some don’t. Based on studies of our 138 cases, the most common symptoms in the first stage are fever (98.6% of cases), feebleness (69.6%), cough (59.4%), muscle pains (34.8%), difficulties breathing (31.2%), while less common symptoms include headaches, dizziness, stomach pain, diarrhea, nausea, vomiting.

    But some patients who enter the second week will suddenly get worse. At this stage, people should go to the hospital. Elderly with underlying conditions may develop complications; some may need machine-assisted respiration. When the body’s other organs start to fail, that’s when it becomes severe, while those with strong immune systems see their symptoms decrease in severity at this stage and gradually recover. So the second week is what determines whether the illness becomes critical.

    The third week determines whether critical illness leads to death. Some in critical condition who receive treatment can raise their lymphocyte [count], a type of white blood cell, and see an improvement in their immune systems, and have been brought back, so to speak. But those whose lymphocyte numbers continue to decline, those whose immune systems are destroyed in the end, experience multiple organ failure and die.  [Summary:  Prolonged low lymphocyte counts in the 3rd week of illness predict death.]

    For most, the illness is over in two weeks, whereas for those for whom the illness becomes severe, if they can survive three weeks they’re good. Those that can’t will die in three weeks.

    wuhan

    Caixin: Will you please give more details on clinical research? What percentage of cases would develop from mild conditions to severe conditions? What percentage of serious cases would develop into life-threatening cases? What is the mortality rate?Peng: Based on my clinical observations, this disease is highly contagious, but the mortality rate is low. Those that progressed into the life-threatening stage often occurred in the elderly already with chronic diseases.

    As of Jan. 28, of 138 cases, 36 were in the ICU, 28 recovered, five died. That is to say, the mortality rate of patients with severe conditions was 3.6%. Yesterday (Feb. 3), another patient died, bringing the mortality rate to 4.3%. Given patients in the ICU, it is likely to have more deaths. The mortality rate is also likely to edge up but not significantly.

    Those hospitalized tend to have severe or life-threatening conditions. Patients with slight symptoms are placed in quarantine at home. We have not gathered data on the percentage of cases that progress from slight symptoms to serious symptoms. If a patient goes from serious conditions to life-threatening conditions, the patient will be sent to the ICU. Among 138 patients, 36 were transferred to the ICU, representing 26% of all patients. The percentage of deaths among life-threatening cases is about 15%. The mean period to go from slight conditions to life-threatening conditions is about 10 days. Twenty-eight patients recovered and were discharged. Right now, the recovery rate is 20.3% while other patients remain hospitalized.

    It is notable that 12 cases were linked to South China Seafood Market; 57 were infected while being hospitalized, including 17 patients already hospitalized in other departments; and 40 medical staff, among 138 cases (as of Jan. 28). That demonstrates that a hospital is a high-risk zone and appropriate protection must be taken.

    Caixin: What is the highest risk a serious patient faces?

    Peng: The biggest assault the virus launches is on a patient’s immune system. It causes a fall in the count of lymphocytes, the damage in the lungs and shortness of breath. Many serious patients died of choking. Others died of the failure of multiple organs following complications in their organs resulting from a collapse of the immune system.

    Caixin:   [Some patients did not appear too sick] but they died suddenly. Some experts argue that the virus triggers a cytokine storm, which ravages the stronger immune system of young adults. Eventually excessive inflammations caused by cytokine result in the higher mortality rate. ...

    Peng: Based on my observations, a third of patients exhibited inflammation in their whole body. It was not necessarily limited to young adults. The mechanism of a cytokine storm is about whole-body inflammation, which leads to a failure of multiple organs and quickly evolves into the terminal stage. In some fast-progressing cases, it took two to three days to progress from whole-body inflammation to the life-threatening stage.

    Caixin: How do you treat serious and life-threatening cases?

    Peng: For serious and life-threatening cases, our main approach is to provide oxygen, high-volume oxygen. At first noninvasive machine-pumped oxygen, followed by intubated [with a ventilator] oxygen if conditions worsen. For life-threatening cases, we use ECMO (extracorporeal membrane oxygenation, or pumping the patient’s blood through an artificial lung machine). In four cases, we applied ECMO to rescue patients from the verge of death.

    Currently there are no special drugs for the coronavirus. The primary purpose of the ICU is to help patients sustain the functions of their body. Different patients have different symptoms. In case of shortness of breath, we provided oxygen; in case of a kidney failure, we gave dialysis; in case of a coma, we deployed ECMO. We provide support wherever a patient needs it to sustain their life. Once the count of lymphocytes goes up and the immune system improves, the virus will be cleared. However, if the count of lymphocytes continues to fall, it is dangerous because the virus continues to replicate. Once a patient’s immune system is demolished, it is hard to save a patient.

    [Very important negative prognostic sign:  failure of the low lymphocyte count to recover.]

    Caixin: There is news of some drugs that work. People are hopeful of the effect of U.S.-made remdesivir, which cured the first case in the United States. What do you think of the drugs?

    Peng: There are not 2019 novel coronavirus-targeted drugs so far. Some patients may recover after taking some drugs along with supportive treatment. But such individual cases do not indicate the universal effect of the drugs. The effect is also related to how serious each case is and their individual health conditions. People want a cure urgently, and that is understandable. But we need to be cautious.

    Caixin: Do you have any advice for coronavirus-infected patients?

    Peng: The most effective approach to the virus epidemic is to control the source of the virus, stem the spread of the virus and prevent human-to-human transmission. My advice for a patient is going to a special ward for infectious diseases, early detection, early diagnosis, early quarantine and early treatment. Once it has developed into a severe case, hospitalization is a must. It is better to contain the disease at an early stage. Once it reaches the life-threatening stage, it is way more difficult to treat it and requires more medical resources. With regard to life-threatening cases, try to save them with ICU measures to reduce the mortality rate.....

    Caixin: What are your work load and pace like?

    Peng: The work in the ICU is overloaded. There are three patient wards with 66 beds in South Central Hospital, housing 150 patients.  Since Jan. 7 when we received the first patient, no one took any leave. We took turns to work in the ICU. Even pregnant medical staff did not take leave. After the epidemic got worse, none of the medical staff ever went home. We rest in a hotel near the hospital or in the hospital.  [The medical staff working in the ward would be considered "under quarantine" after their shifts and could not go home.

    In the segregated ward, we wear level-3 protective gear. One shift is 12 hours for a doctor and eight hours for a nurse. Since protective gear is in a shortage, there is only one set for a medical staff member a day. We refrain from eating or drinking during our shift because the gear is no longer protective once we go to the washroom. The gear is thick, airtight and tough on our body. It felt uncomfortable at the beginning, but we are used to it now.

    Caixin: Did you experience a very dangerous moment? For example, in case of intubation, what do you do to prevent yourselves from being infected?

    Peng: It is a new coronavirus. We are not sure of its nature and its path of spread. It is not true if we say we are not afraid. Medical staff members do fear to some extent. But patients need us. When a patient is out of breath and noninvasive oxygen provision fails, we must apply intubation. The procedure is dangerous as the patient may vomit or spit. Medical staff are likely to be exposed to the danger of infection. We strictly require doctors and nurses to apply the highest-level protection. The biggest problem we face now is the shortage of protective gear. The protective stock for ICU staff is running low, although the hospital prioritizes the supply to us.

    wuhan

    Caixin: Is there anything that moved you in particular? Did you cry?Peng: I often cried because so many patients could not be admitted to the hospital. They wailed in front of the hospital. Some patients even knelt down to beg me to accept him into the hospital. But there was nothing I could do since all beds were occupied. I shed tears while I turned them down. I ran out of tears now. .....

    The deputy director of our department told me one thing, and he cried too. Wuhan 7th Hospital is in a partnership with our hospital, South Central Hospital. The deputy director went there to help in their ICU. He found that two-thirds of the medical staff in the ICU were already infected. Doctors there were running “naked” as they knew they were set to be infected given the shortage of protective gear. They still worked there nonetheless. That was why ICU medical staff were almost all sickened. It is too tough for our doctors and nurses.  [No shit buddy!]

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  • Wed, Feb 05, 2020 - 8:32pm

    #37
    Copper’s Hu-mom

    Copper’s Hu-mom

    Status: Member

    Joined: Feb 01 2020

    Posts: 42

    4

    Thinking for myself

    Northern Illinois - Chris and Adam, you are obviously on the right track if the established media are trying to discredit / silence you.  PP subscribers think for ourselves, and we will continue to benefit from your hard work. So Thank you for it. Your conclusions are starting to sink in with a few people I work with as they start to ask questions instead of shutting down the conversation.  So many people, sadly, don’t have a clue or any imagination of what the facts  mean. I can’t fathom living that way. Yes, like you said, it’s like watching a train wreck in slo-mo, but at least we

    My family’s pharmacy so far

    can brace for impact.  Thanks for helping me figure out what to do next.

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  • Wed, Feb 05, 2020 - 8:46pm

    #38

    dtrammel

    Status: Silver Member

    Joined: May 03 2011

    Posts: 804

    2

    Sobering

    Thanks for that Sandpuppy.

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  • Wed, Feb 05, 2020 - 9:20pm

    #39
    Barbara

    Barbara

    Status: Member

    Joined: Dec 15 2009

    Posts: 180

    6

    It's here! Local to me.

    From the Madison, WI area.  A sick traveler from China has brought the disease here.
    As some of you may remember, I've been worried about Wuhan students allowed to return to the small college near my infirm father.   However, just today I've learned I could be next door to a confirmed case, but they're only monitoring/notifying "close contacts".   They are also monitoring only those returning after the CDC required Feb 2 date.  This person was apparently sick ON a plane that arrived Jan 30.

    https://www.channel3000.com/we-are-ready-for-this-area-leaders-public-health-officials-respond-to-confirmed-coronavirus-case-in-dane-county/

    WI has tested 10 with 7 negative, 1 confirmed and 2 pending, including a sick student at a Milwaukee school.  The health services say they have been planning for the outbreak for a month, but won't isolate non-symptomatic travelers from China because that would be racist.  Masks were bought out between the midday announcement and the evening news.  Glad I already picked up a few and split them between here and dad's.

    You don't need to live in a big city with lots of international travel to have this stuff show up next door.  If you haven't made the basic preparation of food, anti-bacterial cleansers/wipes, gloves, etc. do it now.  Also identify the best nearby emergency room (not necessarily the local level 1 trauma center which will be overcrowded with critical cases, including flu and other respiratory viruses).

    The WI health agencies seem to prefer quarantine at home if an ICU is not needed, and they will support the patient with needed supplies.  Of course, eventually support capacity will run out, but for now, except for refusing to quarantine China travelers a month ago, local authorities here seem to be doing sensible things.

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  • Wed, Feb 05, 2020 - 9:24pm

    #40
    Lineman7

    Lineman7

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    Joined: Feb 05 2020

    Posts: 20

    0

    Lineman7 said:

    I am a new subscriber, but have followed Chris for many years. First, I would like to say thank you Chris, for your straightforward, informed, commenting.

    Today, Japan's number of cases has jumped higher to 45 cases, a 105% increase, as follows:

    1/31   20, 2/1   20, 2/2   20, 2/3   20, 2/4  22, 2/5  45

    Some of this is probably due to lax posting by the Japanese. But its interesting to note China had 45 cases reported  on January 16, 2019, which increased in three weeks to todays reported total of 28,254. Let's hope Japan has remediation steps in place, and will not follow China's exponential increase in cases. Time will tell.

     

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  • Wed, Feb 05, 2020 - 9:39pm

    #41
    Lineman7

    Lineman7

    Status: Member

    Joined: Feb 05 2020

    Posts: 20

    1

    Japan Cases Increase to 45

    First, I am a new subscriber to Peak Prosperity, but have followed Chris for many years. I would like to say thank you Chris for your thorough and perceptive commentary.

    Second, today Japan posted an increase in cases to 45 from 22 yesterday, a 105% increase. Probably, the sudden increase is due to correction of lax reporting:

    1/31 20, 2/1 20, 2/2 20, 2/3 20, 2/4 22, 2/5 45

    I noticed China reported 45 cases on January 16, 2020 which in three weeks has grown to 28,254. We'll see if Japan's authorities have put enough remedial programs in place to not follow China's exponential increase in cases.

     

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  • Wed, Feb 05, 2020 - 9:59pm

    #42
    peakTheTruth

    peakTheTruth

    Status: Member

    Joined: Jan 27 2020

    Posts: 3

    0

    Remdesivir is not a protease inhibitor

    Gilead's drug is a nucleoside analogue is it is mistaken by the virus for a DNA/rna base it's not a protease inhibitor

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  • Wed, Feb 05, 2020 - 10:14pm

    #43
    annie

    annie

    Status: Member

    Joined: Dec 07 2008

    Posts: 21

    5

    Looks like the British media are beginning to take this seriously

    The Daily Telegraph has an article where the realization of exactly how bad this might get is beginning to dawn on them.  Thanks to Chris and Adam for all the on going hard work.  There are few places you can trust to give you accurate, up to date information and I for one, treasure this one and the great community it has fostered.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2020/02/05/chinas-coronavirus-not-remotely-control-world-economy-mounting2/

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  • Wed, Feb 05, 2020 - 10:36pm

    #44

    dtrammel

    Status: Silver Member

    Joined: May 03 2011

    Posts: 804

    3

    Home Humidifier

    Among the food and stuff you buy in preparation, make room for a home humidifier. From what I've read, a room with high humidity acts to cut down on airborne infectious droplets. Not sure why.

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  • Wed, Feb 05, 2020 - 10:42pm

    #45
    kunga

    kunga

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: Feb 26 2017

    Posts: 368

    1

    Self quarantine at home. Really??

    Pre surgery , I knew I was going to be spending weeks at home recovering, so stocked up, got needed house maintenance and chores done, etc.  How many people are prepared physically, psychologically, emotionally to isolate?  Some just coming home after a trip, maybe don't feel too bad and Holy Cow!! I'm out of ice cream, doritos, bread, milk, toilet paper, etc.  You think they might call a friend or just make a quick dash to the store?  Couldn't hurt, right?

     

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  • Wed, Feb 05, 2020 - 10:58pm

    #46
    Sparky1

    Sparky1

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: Jul 21 2016

    Posts: 753

    0

    SF Bay Area: nCoV rescue flights, hospital workers quarantined, local business impact

    KPIX CBS San Francisco Bay Area video:  https://youtu.be/YAH9TbeADMI

    More people wearing masks, encouraging and taking other precautions; reassurances amid declining business activity due to nCoV concerns

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  • Wed, Feb 05, 2020 - 11:21pm

    #47
    kunga

    kunga

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: Feb 26 2017

    Posts: 368

    1

    Community Hygiene

    Think of all the things, as you travel around in your day, that you touch, that have been handled by others.  I live in a rural, not too bright community, where scabies seems to be endemic.  As in many third world countries, people here just seem to live with it and public health people won't acknowledge it.  Pretty sad in 21 century America, but I have learned to adjust.  I carry my own pen for signing anything.  Community pens are at the bank, grocery and health club.  I wipe down grocery cart handles.

    I often think what a great study could be done if the stockers, cashiers and baggers at the grocery store could have their hands swabbed and plated out.  Can't pump gas in my state so gas person handles my credit card.

    I also have stopped shaking hands, got infected too many times, even fist bumps becoming questionable.  I guess gloves is the next reasonable step.  Gloves and wipes, steering wheel, door handles, keys, going to slow things down.

    Just assume everyone around you is unaware, asleep or stupid and protect yourself accordingly.

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  • Wed, Feb 05, 2020 - 11:42pm

    #48

    guardia

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: Jul 26 2009

    Posts: 55

    1

    Japanese Cruise Ship

    The numbers get all jumbled up in the media, but on average the situation is clear. Samples have been taken from 273 people having had most contact with the first known infected person that disembarked in Hong Kong, 102 of those have been processed until now, and from that processed batch, 20 came back positive.

    In my opinion, we can expect at the very least 100 cases to be on the ship at the moment, and most likely increasing...

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  • Thu, Feb 06, 2020 - 12:54am

    #49
    mad_bobul

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    Are Asian people really more susceptible?

    Just quick observation.

    As I do not neglect impact of ACE2 receptors, I think we need much more time to see if the claim of greater susceptibility of Asian people is valid.

    For today - all around the world (except China) we have something like 250 cases.

    Now, lets have a look on China data (cases/deaths/recovered):

    Hubei       19665      549      671
    Guangdong     970      0    52
    Zhejiang       954       0     82
    Henan       851     2           59
    Hunan       711        0        67
    Jiangxi      600     0     37
    Anhui      591    0     34

    Would we really claim on the basis of above data that people in Guangdong , Zhejiang , Henan are less susceptible?

    I guess what is most important (for now) - quality /accessibility of the treatment. This is why single cases in the western world are ok - they have best treatment one can get (till the time when hundreds start visiting hospitals).

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  • Thu, Feb 06, 2020 - 2:08am

    #50
    Max S.

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    Statistical viewpoint - Official data fits wrong theoretical model

    Just wanted to point out an interesting titbit in relation to one of the charts, that Chris shows in the video.

    Disclaimer: I’m a statistician by profession, and although this post supports an argument that the official 2019-nCov numbers are doctored, the argument is in itself far too weak to support this conclusion. This argument is only meant as an interesting note, that can support other arguments with a method of the “doctoring”

    The chart I’m referring to is this:

     

    This chart is being presented, as a formula, that can predict the new official number, pointing to the conclusion, that the numbers might not be “entirely correct”, but as far as I can see, nobody has mentioned the obvious.

    The formula for the function is QUADRATIC. Cases=155.57d2 – 2610.7d + 13789

    Why is this interesting? Well the theoretical model for the spread of a virus is not quadratic. It is exponential. The reason why this is interesting requires a bit of math. The differential of a function describes the functions increase over time. Like speed and acceleration, where speed is the total number of cases, and the acceleration is like increase in cases pr. day.

    The differential function of a quadratic function is linear. Increase in cases=311.14d - 2610.7

    The differential function of an exponential function is exponential.

    This means that over time, the quadratic function will always undershoot the exponential function. If you wanted to “doctor” the numbers to look kind of exponential, but continually undershoot the real number of cases, you could use a quadratic function.

    Obviously this might just be a coincidence, but I have modelled the numbers too corona data, and I noticed, that a quadratic fit of the data becomes increasingly better and better over time. I have included an Excel file with the data from the Johns Hopkins dashboard: https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6 and the wuflu dashboard: https://wuflu.live/

    Both data series has been fitted with a quadratic trendline and an exponential trendline, and from the charts, it is visually obvious that the quadratic form models the data best. The statistical representation of how well the trendlines fit the data can be read in the R square values (R2). The R2 value is a number between 0 and 1 and basically tells how many percent of the variance in the datapoints can be explained by the trendline. So, looking at the JH data, the exponential trendline can explain 96,3% of the variance but the quadratic trendline can explain 99,91% of the variance. We see exactly the same pattern in the Wuflu data where the exponential trendline can explain 96,79% of the variance but the quadratic trendline can explain 99,95% of the variance.

    This means that for both datasets, the quadratic form fits the data best, except that viral spread should theoretically be exponential.

    Obviously, this could just be due to “noise” in the data, but visually this does not seem to be the case. All datapoints follow the quadratic trendline much more closely, except for datapoint 31/1, that undershoots a tiny bit in the JH data. Just to drive home the point, we can adjust the graphs to only include the early datapoints until the 26/1.

    Now for the JH data, the exponential trendline can explain 96,65% of the variance and the quadratic trendline can explain 97,74% of the variance. And for the Wuflu data the exponential trendline can explain 99,51% of the variance but the quadratic trendline can explain 99,96% of the variance.

    This clearly shows that it is not noise, that produces the better fit of the quadratic form, it is time and the inclusion of more datapoints. Basically this means, that in the beginning, both a quadratic and an exponential model were plausible models for the data, but as we move forward in time, the quadratic form is becoming more likely as a representation of the data for both datasets.

    This points to the obvious conclusion, that since a viral outbreak should be exponential in nature, all else being equal, and the best fit of the trendlines is moving towards a quadratic fit, the likelihood that the data is being “doctored”  is increasing.

    The counter argument to this is of course that with such high R2 values, and so few datapoints, no statistically significant tests can be made that this is actually true.

    But everything else about this case considered, can you see a pattern emerging?

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  • Thu, Feb 06, 2020 - 2:35am

    #51
    mad_bobul

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    Analysis by Max S.

    Max S.,

    Thanks for this deep analysis :). It may be funny to "play" with this model in Excel (for people inclined to numbers) trying different trendlines and to keep an wye on it once more data is available.

    This is realy good remark that quadratic function should not reflect exponential reality. And R2 looks too good. From the other side (playing devils advocate), could it be that all actions from Chinese government impede spreading and it is now more quadratic?

    Now a bit of "conspiracy theory" - what struck me when I look on data again:

    Hubei       19665      549      671
    Guangdong     970      0    52
    Zhejiang       954       0     82
    Henan       851     2           59
    Hunan       711        0        67
    Jiangxi      600     0     37
    Anhui      591    0     34

    Could it be that CCP decided to "sacrifice" Hubei and throw some light on reality there and from the other side they are hiding data from other provinces? So all the world focuses on Hubei and just bypasess rest? In the end 3 of provinces have almost 1000 cases each. When Hubei had 1000 cases, hell already broke loose there...

     

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  • Thu, Feb 06, 2020 - 2:48am

    Sparky1

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    Max S., Awesome statistical analysis and presentation! Thank you!

    Hi Max S., welcome to the PP tribe! Thank you for delving deeper into the data and helping us to better understand it through your excellent presentation and analysis. I'm sure you'll find some kindred stats-oriented folks here for some lively and productive conversation. 🙂

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  • Thu, Feb 06, 2020 - 2:59am

    Max S.

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    Statistical viewpoint - Official data fits wrong theoretical model

    mad_bobul

    To answer your question bluntly (perhaps too bluntly):

    1. Lower R2 due to noise in the data points to: delayed data, under reporting, problems with testing and diagnosing, etc.
    2. Lower R2 due to fit to wrong model points to: Active manipulation of data or fictitious data.

    Perhaps that is a bit too blunt, but with an R2 of 0,9991 to 0,9995 fitted to the wrong model, I’d go for option 2.

    To elaborate a bit: Option 1 means that the real number of cases could be higher. Option 2 makes anything possible, like this for example: https://www.zerohedge.com/health/did-chinas-tencent-accidentally-leak-true-terrifying-coronavirus-statistics

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  • Thu, Feb 06, 2020 - 4:26am

    #54
    Chris Martenson

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    Max S. - Thank you for bringing the goods!

    Max - Your analysis is excellent and fits right in here perfectly.  Honest, measured, and experienced while being open about the interpretation.

    The exponential vs quadratic insight is a new one for me, and completely obvious now that you've raised it.

    Thank you for the analysis and resulting insight.

    As an aside, the viral cruise ships are confirming (for me) the idea that nCoV is indeed highly transmissible.  At a minimum, one person infected 20 others.  But only 102 results are back from 273 tested.  So that could be much higher (and I'd bet that's the case).

    Such a rate of spread is not consistent with a quadratic spread, but an exponential spread.

    Great work.

     

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  • Thu, Feb 06, 2020 - 4:52am

    #55
    Max S.

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    Statistical viewpoint - Official data fits wrong theoretical model

    Hi Chris – Thank you very much.

    Just to add some more familiar terms, that you used in the Crash course series. The R2 in a regression model equals the correlation between the fit and the data, squared.

    So, if we want to know the correlation between the fitted trendline and the data we take the square root of The R2. The correlation between the data and the two quadratic functions is 0,9955 (Wuflu) and 0,9997 (JH).

    Interpretation of a correlation coefficient is obviously different from situation, but if we for a moment disregard that the quadratic model is the wrong model, bud add the fact that there should be some “noise” from all kinds of practical problems, we would expect a lower correlation.

    In other words, as you point out in crash course series (regarding a correlation), the correlation is just too good in these numbers.

    And when we consider that this “near” perfect fit is to a wrong model, I’m sure everyone is getting a whiff of what these numbers smell like.

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  • Thu, Feb 06, 2020 - 6:39am

    #56

    Quercus bicolor

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    Quadratic vs. exponential

    Quadratic: the number of new cases each day increases linearly.  For example if there are 100 new cases on day one, 120 on day two, 140 on day three, 160 on day four, etc.  I can guess day five will have 180 new cases.

    Exponential:  The number of new cases is equal to the number of new cases yesterday multiplied by X where X depends on the doubling time.  For a doubling time of 1 day, X=2.

    The number of new cases obviously increases much quicker for the exponential model.  The exponential model also fits the theory that the number of new cases is proportional to the number of infected people who can transmit the disease.

    Theory:  a quadratic fit is either someone making things up as we've already discussed - or - reflects a gradual increase in the availability of test kits which are the limiting factor on diagnosis.  Here is the number of new cases daily from WuFlu.live:

    For a perfect quadratic, it would be a line with constant slope. It's close, but not quite.  Noisy enough to be real or too perfect and therefore made up?  I can't say.

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  • Thu, Feb 06, 2020 - 6:52am

    Steve

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    Cruise Ships

    We are hearing about results of infection on a cruise ship in Japan.  But, that's only one ship.  How many cruise ships are active on any given day?  Should we be hearing results of other cruise ships, at least even if those results are negative?

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  • Thu, Feb 06, 2020 - 7:38am

    #58
    Max S.

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    Statistical viewpoint - Official data fits wrong theoretical model

    After looking more at the data, I found some more indications, that the data doesn’t look like it is supposed to.

    Regardless of whether we assume a quadratic or exponential relationship, both functions has an increasing acceleration. From this we would naturally assume that the error residual or “noise” in the data should increase likewise. By error residual or noise I simply mean the difference between a data point and the trend line. The reason for this is that any practical problems with data collection like lack of test kits, missed reporting, etc. should also increase, because the numbers gets bigger. Therefore the absolute values of the error residuals should increase over time. If we try to chart this for the two quadratic relationships, we see that this is not the case, which is rather curious.

    Instead we see data, that looks rather constant. To make the data even more clear, we can divide the residuals by the trend line values. If we do this we should see a reasonably constant line, with a value of the average ratio of noise to value. If the noise is 10%, we should see a line oscillating around 0,1.

    Instead we see that noise is getting less and less and really approaching 0. This is because the error residual is constant, but the actual values are growing at a quadratic rate.

    This makes absolutely no sense. If the difficulty in getting test kits was bad at 5000 cases, it should be alarming at 25000. If the job of counting and reporting the cases was bad at 5000 cases, it should much worse at 25000 cases. If the misreporting was at a certain level at 500 cases, it should be 5 times that at 25000 cases.

    So, this again raises the question of whether we can trust the official data, because the error values simply are completely contrary to what we would expect.

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  • Thu, Feb 06, 2020 - 7:54am

    #59
    bigpig1

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    Great quote

    Just heard a great quote!

     

    ”The only people who get mad at you for speaking the truth are those who are living a lie.”

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  • Thu, Feb 06, 2020 - 10:05am

    Ben Burke

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    worth a watch indeed

    Thanks Tom,

    This was worth every minute of my time... I would recommend everyone to watch with an open mind...

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  • Thu, Feb 06, 2020 - 10:07am

    dtrammel

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    Is This A Case Of Modeling The Output

    Max, would training an AI on a model which is already false and modeled to produce a pre-planned output just produce the expected numbers?

    https://www.forbes.com/sites/johnkoetsier/2020/02/05/ai-predicts-coronavirus-could-infect-25b-and-kill-53m-doctors-say-thats-not-credible-and-heres-why/#2883aed11cd0

    I mean, if the Chinese already have the public number put down ahead of time, training a AI to predict the new numbers based on the old data would then confirm the Chinese numbers for the next day.

    Ok my head is spinning over that paragraph.

    Do you understand my question?

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  • Thu, Feb 06, 2020 - 10:25am

    #62

    dtrammel

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    Handy Hint For People New To Stocking Up

    As someone who is an old hat to having a deep pantry and a decent amount of food stored for an emergency, I sometimes forget that common things I do, people new to preparing don't know.

    Case in point, as you buy extra food, take a sharpie marker and write the date you bought the food on the package. For a soup can, just write on the bottom of the can. This way you can easily see which is the oldest of your foods, and then choose that for your meal today.

    A large pantry isn't something to accumulate and then let sit, its something you want to rotate, eating the oldest first, then adding new supplies.

    Also, buy what you eat. If you don't eat rice or beans on a regular weekly basis, don't pick up 10 pound bags of either. Nothing makes self quarantine suck like eating the same bowl of rice and beans every single day.

    And don't forget some comfort food. Buy at least some that you can have as a treat, like granola bars, those small bit sized candy bars, poptarts, even some cookies. When you hit a snag or feel stressed, sit down for a moment and take a break.

    The Pandemic will wait 5 minutes.

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  • Thu, Feb 06, 2020 - 10:37am

    Redreamer

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    Redreamer said:

    right now with pre 'valentines day' products on the shelves is a good time to supplement treats especially if you have kids since the prices are as good as they get. Buying organic seeds to sprout is also an activity you can do with children that allows them to help produce edible food/greens and provides some daily structure in a lock down situation.

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  • Thu, Feb 06, 2020 - 11:29am

    #64

    dtrammel

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    Sprouts and Microgreens - Add To Your Meal and Keep The Kids Entertained

    Good point Redreamer, small indoor gardening is a great activity for children in normal times. In a situation of self quarantine, having an activity which keeps their interest and puts a little food on the table to spice up their meals would be great. Nothing like eating a meal you helped grow.

    There are just tons of Youtube videos on how to grow them. I like the Home Garden channel, since I ran across this neat way to grow onion greens.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oVauY_zXHA8&t=111s

    I'm not sure where they are, since I don't recognize the language but you don't need to. The videos are easy to follow and easy to make.

    I haven't tried the onion one yet, still too early here to get onion sets but I suppose I could use green onions from the grocery store if I needed to. I've got a pretty good indoor growing set up, that I'm about to re-set up for the Spring anyway. I do quite a bit of container growing since I teach it on my website.

     

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  • Thu, Feb 06, 2020 - 12:36pm

    #65
    Matties

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    Sprouts and Microgreens

    Yes all good fun but abstain from wheat and other grains. They contain lectins, the evil poisons of these plants. Also abstain from sprouted beans.

    you can sprout beets, radish, broccoli, cabbages etc. and eat those.

    For more info goto the other PP, Plant Paradox of dr. Gundry. The guy is serious.

    https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC440759/

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  • Thu, Feb 06, 2020 - 1:44pm

    kunga

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    Sprouts and greens

    Yeah, Matties, Plants really don't like to be eaten.  Who knew?  They want you to eat their fruits in order to spread the seeds.  Most modern engineered fruits are really too high in sugar for the average person.  Avocado is a high fat, low glycemic fruit, high in potassium.  I buy, mash and freeze.

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  • Thu, Feb 06, 2020 - 2:06pm

    #67
    Tom Sammy

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    Opinion piece - Reason to worry about Corona vs. flu

    good opinion article on why corona is reason for concern including onsite on US hospital systems that are ill equipped to handle:

     

    https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.nydailynews.com/opinion/ny-oped-yes-worry-about-coronavirus-20200206-ane5vluupjblbnr4sbvrquuxqy-story.html%3foutputType=amp

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  • Thu, Feb 06, 2020 - 2:07pm

    #68
    Matties

    Matties

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    Sprouts and greens

    Thanks Kunga, more or less, you are the first to adres me. Thanks...

    I just wish the people to become aware. Aware of what ? Just aware.

    Aware is different from woke.

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  • Thu, Feb 06, 2020 - 2:56pm

    #69
    dryam2000

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    Mortality rate

    I’m not an epidemiologist, statistician, or anything of the like.

    All this talk about mortality rate really bugs me.  Death from this virus is a lagging number.  It’s safe to say that whatever the Chinese numbers are in regards to anything about this outbreak is contrived.  The cases outside of China have just been popping up the past 10 days or so.  I have to believe that death can occur up to 21 to 28+ days after initial contact with the virus.  It is premature to have much of clear idea of the transmissibility and severity of this disease.  This because everyone is using fuzzy numbers, and not enough time has passed to get any type of real data.  The next 2-4 weeks will be quite telling.  When it comes to mortality rate my sense is that this can only be arrived at when this outbreak gets closer to a steady state and this will likely take many weeks.

    We know:  this is a terrible illness otherwise 150 million people would not be quarantined via the PLA no less, cases are popping up globally (and somehow the virus is magically going to die out in these countries?!), China immediately (tried to) quarantine all information from their 1.4 billion citizens from going out of the country, all we here from officials around the world is “we got this”, etc.  Also, where in the world can there be any type of quarantine similar to China’s?  Maybe Russia.  It’s hard for me to foresee how the world’s economy doesn’t come to a near standstill if there are expanding outbreaks all over the world.

     

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  • Thu, Feb 06, 2020 - 3:14pm

    annepan001

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    Community hygiene - gloves vs masks

    Kunga, I heard a discussion on Radio Scotland yesterday about precautions to take to minimise risk of coronavirus infection. The "expert" said that in the UK they don't recommend that people wear masks, because people don't know how to use them properly, which leads to inadvertent spread of disease due to some complacency. Eg if someone is infectious, and uses a mask which quickly becomes a huge repository of infectious material, when they remove it with a bare hand, and don't immediately bin it / burn it, and don't immediately wash their hand(s) they start touching surfaces and spreading the virus anyway. Instead we've been advised to avoid touching our faces / eyes / mouth, and wear gloves at all times when out in public. On returning home, the gloves should be washed immediately, hands also washed immediately, and this should help minimise the risk. But I'm conscious of reports that people have become infected in China via unprotected eyes from infectious people coughing droplets into the air. So - masks, gloves and eye protection, and careful washing of hands/gloves/masks/clothes after venturing out would provide the best protection - while also avoiding touching ones face/mouth etc.

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  • Thu, Feb 06, 2020 - 5:08pm

    #71
    greendoc

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    ACE inhibitors/ARBs not helpful. We don't know yet if Asians more susceptible. The science.

    There seems to be alot of confusion/confounding here of ACE and ACE2.  It is easy to confuse for sure, science does a crappy job naming things (they all sound so alike but they are different!)  which creates these misunderstandings.  Maybe this can help.

    ACE is a gene called Angiotensin I Converting Enzyme.  This gene encodes an enzyme involved in catalyzing the conversion of angiotensin I into a physiologically active peptide angiotensin II. Angiotensin II is a potent vasopressor and aldosterone-stimulating peptide that controls blood pressure and fluid-electrolyte balance. This enzyme plays a key role in the renin-angiotensin system. Many studies have associated the presence or absence of a 287 bp Alu repeat element in this gene with the levels of circulating enzyme or cardiovascular pathophysiologies.  This mutation is commonly referred to as the ACE insertion/deletion or, more simply ACE I/D.  The relative frequency of this mutation in various ethnic populations worldwide has been of interest to scientists (As are the population frequencies of many other mutations in hundreds of genes) as they have bearing on diseases, medications, etc.  ACE is NOT related to 2019 novel CoV or SARS at all.

    ACE inhibitors produce vasodilation by inhibiting the formation of angiotensin II. (Which is NOT ACE2) This molecule is a potent vasoconstrictor  formed by the proteolytic action of renin (released by the kidneys) acting on circulating angiotensinogen to form angiotensin I.

    ACE inhibitors end with -pril: benazepril (Lotensin, Lotensin Hct); captopril (Capoten); enalapril (Vasotec); fosinopril (Monopril); lisinopril (Prinivil, Zestril). These medications have nothing to do with Coronaviruses.

    Much has been made about the non-peer reviewed study that ACE2 is the putative (considered to be based on available evidence)receptor for the spike protein of novel CoV (and likely this seems true)  but even more has been said here by commenters that Asian males are more susceptible because they hav higher expression of ACE2 in lung cells.

    https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.01.26.919985v1

    I want to say that study was done on EIGHT samples from a tissue bank of lung tissue from healthy donors.  ONE of those samples came from a Asian male and in this tissue sample ACE2 expression was found to be much higher than in other samples, and ACE2 was also being expressed in more cell types. The authors SPECULATE that this observation may underlie the virulence for novel CoV in Asians.

    First:  this sample size is ridiculously small, it is NOT established fact. It is a very interesting observation that needs to be replicated by another research group in a much larger cohort.  I am not a statistician, but there are guidelines for sample size needed in order to obtain results that can be statistically significant.  That sample size of EIGHT was insufficiently powered.  You can read more here: https://www.statisticsdonewrong.com/power.html

    So, if someone looked at tissue samples from 1000 people, 250 each: Africans, Caucasians, Asians and Latinos of roughly half male/female you might get a better idea of the actual ACE2 expression pattern as it varies by ethnicity.  BTW: I am not a statistician, so 1000 might not be sufficiently powered (or may be overpowered) …but you get the idea.

    Also, when you read the comments associated with this study, several people (way smarter than me, who work in this area of science) point out some problems with the methodologies used in the research. I cannot comment on this, as I am not a subject matter expert in this area, but I am very clear this happens alot…..it is only people who work in these highly specialized niche areas of research who can understand these subtleties.

    But what about ACE2?  https://www.genecards.org/cgi-bin/carddisp.pl?gene=ACE2&keywords=ACE2

    First, it is not ACE, it is also not angiotensin II.

    ACE2 (Angiotensin I Converting Enzyme 2) is a gene that encodes an enzyme which converts angiotensin I to angiotensin 1-9, a peptide of unknown function, and angiotensin II to angiotensin 1-7, a vasodilator (PubMed:10969042, PubMed:10924499, PubMed:11815627). Also able to hydrolyze apelin-13 and dynorphin-13 with high efficiency (PubMed:11815627). By cleavage of angiotensin II, may be an important regulator of heart function (PubMed:10969042, PubMed:10924499). By cleavage of angiotensin II, may also have a protective role in acute lung injury (By similarity). Plays an important role in amino acid transport by acting as binding partner of amino acid transporter SL6A19 in intestine, regulating trafficking, expression on the cell surface, and its catalytic activity (PubMed:18424768, PubMed:19185582). ACE2_HUMAN,Q9BYF1

    ACE2 also acts as a receptor for SARS coronavirus/SARS-CoV. ACE2_HUMAN,Q9BYF1

    What apparently makes novel CoV so serious for some is this surface expression of ACE2 protein on lung alveolar epithelial cells.  ACE2 is poorly expressed in the upper respiratory tract: nose, sinus tissue, throat, but gets expressed in the lung.  Hence, many people develop a fever and shortness of breathe, pneumonia and never really get a “cold” prior: sneezing, sore throat.

    In short high/upregulated ACE is bad: think high blood pressure. Hence ACE inhibitors to block it.

    ACE2 is good. An upregulated ACE2 (not angiotensin II)  is actually regarded beneficial in cardiovascular and kidney disease.  Perhaps having alot of ACE2 expressed in lung tissue ends up being bad for CoV infection though…and the result of that infection is the down regulation/inhibition of ACE2’s positive effects.

    Stephen Buhner mentions in his book, page 55: “SARS viruses attach to ACE-2 on the surface of lung, lymph, and spleen epithelial cells. (Licorice, Chinese skullcap, luteolin, horse chestnut, Polygonum spp., Rheum officinale, and plants high in pro- cyanidins and lectins such as elder and cinnamon block attachment to varying degrees.)”.   Unfortunately the research supporting this statement tends to be highly technical in-vitro experiments with purified constituents, not real life/in vivo clinical trials involving 2019 novel coronavirus.  But hey, it is something to look at seriously.  Herbs are powerful used correctly.

    And what about using ARBs? These drugs end in -sartan.  Azilsartan (Edarbi); candesartan (Atacand), valsartan (Diovan); losartan (Cozaar); olmesartan (Benicar).

    ARB stands for AT1R blockers and they represent a major class of antihypertensive medications.

    Angiotensin-II (not ACE2) activates two major types of receptors, angiotensin II type one (AT1R) and type two (AT2R) receptors. While AT1R is widely expressed and mediates most inflammatory Ang-II effects (bad), AT2R, is less expressed and has opposite effects, promoting vasodilation and anti-inflammatory effects [1] . Physiologically, AT2R actions are usually masked by the more abundant AT1R. It has been suggested that ARBs can mediate their action through increasing angiotensin II (Ang II) availability to bind to the beneficial angiotensin type 2 receptor (AT2R), thus leading to unopposed AT2R stimulation.

    So long story short, ARBs do not block the gene or the enzyme ACE2.  They block the receptor for Angiotensin 2 (AT1R: which is produced by ACE, not ACE2).

    I know, it is crazy to sort out. But trust me, ACE inhibitors and ARBs have nothing to do with fighting coronavirus infection.  What is needed are antiviral meds or herbs that work on multiple levels:

    1. Block the receptor on ACE2 so the spike protein of novel CoA cannot attach
    2. Stop the endocytosis of the virus into the cell
    3. Stop/slow viral replication with in the cell.
    4. Activation of host defense systems
    5. Many other strategies: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/25108320

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  • Thu, Feb 06, 2020 - 6:25pm

    kunga

    kunga

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: Feb 26 2017

    Posts: 368

    0

    annepan001

    Hi, anne, are you in Scotland?  Another country on my bucket list.

    My plan is to double glove the thin laytex type gloves and cary the disinfecting wet wipes in a plastic baggie.  I will use the wet wipes to rub the gloved hands after I have been in a public place, before touching vehicle and house door knobs or keys.  I haven't completely figured out the routine, yet. After getting in the vehicle, I will remove mask, eye protection and wipe with wet wipes, then remove outer gloves to avoid contaminating steering wheel.  Carry garbage bag to put contaminated items in.   It's going to be complicated.  I suppose I need one set of clothes in the house and a removable set to wear in public.  I live in a rural area with not much people contact and I am preparing to mainly stay home.  Going to be complicated.

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  • Fri, Feb 07, 2020 - 12:13am

    #73

    gyrogearloose

    Status: Gold Member

    Joined: Sep 08 2008

    Posts: 357

    0

    Death rate

    Hi. Here in New Zealand mainstream media was running with 2.1% worked out buy dividing deaths by total confirmed.

    But given the lag between symptoms and death I came up with 10%

    Today in mainstream news  "An analysis, published in The Lancet medical journal, of the first 99 patients treated for the coronavirus at the city's Jinyintan Hospital shows how differently the virus can impact people. "

    It noted just under half had a connection to the food market.

    More importantly it reports that 11 of them died

     

    Regards hamish

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  • Fri, Feb 07, 2020 - 4:27am

    Max S.

    Max S.

    Status: Member

    Joined: Feb 06 2020

    Posts: 6

    0

    Is This A Case Of Modeling The Output

    Dtrammel

    You are spot on here. The model is irrelevant, be it an ANN a RNN or structural equation modeling.

    If a model is trained on artificial data. It will predict artificial results. All these models seek to detect and predict patterns in data. If the data is off, so are the predictions

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  • Fri, Feb 07, 2020 - 11:32am

    #75
    trackingtruth

    trackingtruth

    Status: Member

    Joined: Feb 07 2020

    Posts: 4

    1

    Wisconsin case

    The case in Wisconsin might be worth some attention. First news reports mentioned that the "patient who visited the University of Wisconsin-Madison University Hospital" was confirmed to have the virus. Subsequent news reports avoid mentioning this fact and, instead, refer to the location as Dane County.

    Wisconsin media is notorious for its lack of investigative reporting and for keeping facts from the general public. Very little information about this patient has been released.

    Could it be because the age of this patient points to identity as a student at the university? The university has a diverse population with many Asian students and resumed classes only a few weeks ago.

    Colleges such as Madison would be perfect collectors and incubators for this virus. Dorms force close contact among young people who may not be as cautious as the general populace.

    If Wisconsin was really interested in protecting its citizens, then maybe the news should be about education and preventative measures available at its universities rather than hiding details from the public.

     

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  • Fri, Feb 07, 2020 - 12:08pm

    Julie Derwinski

    Julie Derwinski

    Status: Member

    Joined: Feb 07 2020

    Posts: 1

    0

    Julie Derwinski said:

    The Wisconsin case is an adult woman who recently traveled to China, not a student per the Dane County-Madison Health Department's statement 2/6. 4-new-patients-tested-for-coronavirus-in-wisconsin-results-pending

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  • Fri, Feb 07, 2020 - 2:01pm

    #77
    Tom Sammy

    Tom Sammy

    Status: Member

    Joined: Jan 30 2020

    Posts: 135

    0

    Fun during Quarantine!!! Courtesy of Your friends at China Global Television Network

    😟😮😷.

    https://news.cgtn.com/news/2020-02-07/Facing-Fear-fun-during-self-quarantine-NT6Ix41oze/index.html

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