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    Coronavirus: The High Cost Of Being Wrong

    Millions of lives and trillions in wealth are at stake
    by Adam Taggart

    Thursday, March 26, 2020, 8:58 PM

Picking up from yesterday’s video rebutting the latest media campaign of “It’s not going to be that bad” opinion pieces from ‘experts’, Chris investigates the cost of being wrong in these predictions.

This is important because government and health care response policies are being influenced by these experts. If we pick the wrong policies, millions of lives and trillions in wealth are at stake.

Chris walks through the two main competing theories on the pandemic’s projected impact and highlights the merits and shortcomings of each.

In his opinion, the logic underlying one is much stronger than the other.

In many very real ways, our destiny is tied to the path we choose. Here’s hoping we choose wisely.

 

And if you haven’t read it already, read our Coronavirus Home Lockdown Survival Guide.

We’ve written it to be a comprehensive collection of the resources you need to stay safe, sane and solvent through the covid-19 crisis.

It’s a great tool for getting everyone in your household on the same page — print it out and have them read it:

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103 Comments

  • Thu, Mar 26, 2020 - 9:01pm

    #1
    nordicjack

    nordicjack

    Status: Bronze Member

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    I have a idea, Lets test it . and we can answer the CFR and Hospitalization rates

    Lets go ahead and get 1000 volunteers ( who think this virus is less deadly than the flu ) and inoculate them with the virus.  And then just follow them through the course.. AND no medical treatment provided.. Done and Done..  We have an answer

    Edit: The US military can do this with soldiers.  Why not do it .. consider them at worse casualties of war and give them purple hearts or whatever..  GET it done.. I am sure a lot soldiers would sign-up for this alone.

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  • Thu, Mar 26, 2020 - 9:55pm

    #2

    Quercus bicolor

    Status: Silver Member

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    Some calculations based on Diamond Princess + thoughts on New York.

    Hypothesis: early detection and excellent care including hospitalization of many patients who would not have been hospitalized in the general population will lead to a lower death rate.

    Data to support hypothesis.  Quick estimate of expected death rate relative to South Korea when adjusting for age gives 3-4% (would be higher if we used China or Italy).  Actual death rate currently 1.4%.  Will probably settle around 2-2.5%.

    Current status: To early to confirm this hypotheses although current data supports it.

    Hypotheses: Infection rate in the general population will likely exceed 20% without NPIs.

    Data: Rate exceeded 20% on the ship.  Spread should be much more aggressive in tight quarters, however, a quarantine was implemented and new infections tailed off sharply 14 days into the quarantine.  This suggests the quarantine was at least somewhat effective.

    Current status: need to consider evacuations from ship.

    Hypothesis:  Asymptomatic cases are perhaps 50%-60% of all cases.

    Data: asymptomatic rate was about 50% on the Diamond Princess.  However these results are from Feb 20, so some of them could have developed symptoms after this date.  On the other hand, some of the symptomatic cases were mild (how many?) and might not have been detected in a less tested population.

    Tentative conclusion:  Asymptomatic and mild to moderately symptomatic cases in the general population almost certainly do not exceed detected cases by even a factor of 10.  Depending on testing,  a figure of 2-7 times is more likely.

    Resources:

    Lots of data on the Diamond Princess including cases by age and symptomatic vs. asymptomatic.

    Age demographics of Diamond Princess

    Deaths by age in South Korea

    Diamond Princess cases and deaths time series

    Interesting note:  New York has now tested about 0.65% of it's population and it's positive rate has crept above 30% suggesting testing is biased towards likely cases.  The testing rate should exceed 1% by Monday.  deaths/cases is currently 1.2%, although that is likely to increase.  I can't find serious/critical numbers today, but even if we assume all U.S. serious/critical cases are in New York, we're at 5%, so the true number is perhaps 3% - also likely to increase.  With all of the testing, the next week or two will likely give some good insight into likely overall population deaths, etc.

    What we really need is randomized testing on a few thousand people to see what is going on in the general population.  Antibody testing to catch the (likely few) people who have recovered fully might add a bit more insight.

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  • Thu, Mar 26, 2020 - 11:10pm

    nordicjack

    nordicjack

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    5+

    I agree with the random testing

    We should be testing randomly in the community instead of likely cases ..

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  • Fri, Mar 27, 2020 - 2:48am

    #4
    French connexion

    French connexion

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    It really didn't have to be this way

    Dear Chris,  I will post again the interview I posted yesterday of one of the professeurs who is part of the Marseille team. In the interview the MSM interviewer - LCI is an information channel much like CNN - asked the doctor a loaded question. I believe it was Sanofi which offered the French government to make a huge quantity of Chloroquine - 300,000 doses (pills) for free 16min40 - the interviewer asked what the Doctor thinks about the way the government had not replied to the offer. He very carefully avoided the question. The importance which he came back to over and over again in the interview was simply - their results show that the treatment drops the infectious load in patients in a spectacular manner - to the point where the virus is no longer contagious and takes the patient out of danger. He said "On a un traitement" we have a remedy - we give it to people who come to them to Marseille - after that he practically begs the audience to take them seriously!

    By contrast the old fart tanned doctor would prefer to wait 8 weeks (9min51) so that all regions  submit their clinical results. The MSM interviewer on hearing this departed radically from his text - earphone questions - to personal shock at a doctor proposing to allow thousands of deaths - in the interest of following protocol. Procedure!

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  • Fri, Mar 27, 2020 - 3:40am

    #5
    rushcard1

    rushcard1

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    High Cost of Being Wrong? Way too many known and unknown variables.

    I would be scared to make predictions or forecasts based on what we now know, because there are still way too many things we do not know about Covid-19.  For instance, I have not heard anyone speculate as to whether or not Covid-19 virus will come and go as do ordinary flu viruses, or even the Spanish Flu of 1918-1920, or will it have an agenda of its own, and simply bypass the stop and go and continue on?  Also, some of the data just does not seem logical, such as approximately 2.5 people being exposed to one who may be infected.  What if those 2.5 become infected and then each expose their own 2.5 and those each do the same?

    Based on testing in our area, it is often taking several days or even a week or longer to receive back results of testing, due to shortages of supplies, or other bureaucratic snarl-ups.  How many in the meantime are exposed and how many were exposed prior to one suspecting they need to be tested.  For instance, we had a health care worker who had traveled with spouse and they returned and went back to work.  That worker then exposed around 100 hospital cancer patients plus 12 other workers and a couple doctors.  How many others were then exposed to all of them during the times that symptoms were not apparent and then before test results were known?  Even at 2.5 per times all those people and then 2.5 times each of their own exposures, to me it gets nearly impossible to calculate because first of all we will never know how many of any of these occurred and secondly, which of those who were and continued to expose others actually became infected, and then how does this multiply when you factor in the spouse?  Chris, since you obviously live your life around this analysis and have been working on all this for several months, to me it would be very helpful to hear your beliefs.

    Beliefs are predicated upon working knowledge of a given subject matter so who better to be able to render guesstimates and suspicions about this fast moving virus?  I do like your analysis of the straight line and perhaps we should either analyze individual states as though they were countries, or at least break up our nation into workable chunks, due to the fact that there are different weather and temps, different population masses ranging from sparse in WY or ND to heavy in NY and CA, etc.  If we in fact guess the wrong way on this and Covid-19 decides to run unabated for say 18 months, and we then have to bail out our economy for that long, how will that then fare as to who if anyone will be able to go back to work, because how many employers may have simply disappeared during that time period?

    What if like the Spanish Flu, Covid-19 wreaks havoc and then goes off to rest while everyone thinks it is licked and then it comes back with a vengeance worse than the first time?  What if in fact there are multiple strains and each of them must run their courses and maybe one or more of them then decides to again mutate, even though the medical brains surmise they will not?

    Making correct decisions from faulty data is just as bad as making wrong decisions from correct data.  Why in fact are we as a nation bent on arrogantly thinking that because we are who we are, we will somehow fare better than most others in the world?  Yes, there were some correct but politically damaging decisions made early on and that may have saved incalculable lives, just by locking us off from affected areas from the get-go.  Hopefully that will have made a big difference, but we really do not know for sure yet.  Based on all known data, we are only at the very beginning of this nation-wide exposure, which logic would dictate will in fact become much worse perhaps in known ways as well as in unknown ways, just by following all the straight lines.

    Why are we not using or mandating masks or applying known pneumonia cures, rather than creating monstrous paralysis of analysis tasks which could well be at least temporarily shelved until we get this under control?  There will always be time later to study this, but if we inappropriately apply those dwindling resources to things that we already know will not pay off for years, why do our experts not recognize that such misapplied resources will also equate to lives lost between now and the time that we actually do apply those resources and directions to the things that matter most now?

    It is as though the brainiest of brains of our medical world and society cannot see the full picture but only their own single minded rut.  That to me is one of the greatest problems our education system creates, and not just in this profession but all of them.  Way too many professors know lots of things but cannot relate to ordinary common sense problems of society.  Instructing 18,000 people to study computer info in order to search for a cure, forbids acknowledging that such cure for pneumonia was already found in 1920, while they proceed with their tasks of more paralysis of analysis.

    Based on such apparently intellectual actions which in fact are not likely to solve any problems real soon, I am not confidant that we will end this problematic situation any time relatively soon, short of a miracle or short of this aggressive virus just getting tired and quitting, and that is ridiculously optimistic.  Also, they have stopped having funerals around here due to social distancing -- how many of these can be stacked up before we start to create other related problems?  For every decision made out of hand, why are our intellectuals not able to envision the material consequences and thus try to prepare such decisions according to the comprehensive picture rather than for only one small narrow path?  Knowledge even in abundant quantities does not necessarily equate to wise decisions, mostly due to the fact that we are all mice in the overall scheme of things.  The best laid plans of mice and men do not mean a hill of beans when not coupled with wisdom and common sense.  I have only touched on a few examples but there has to be literally thousands of unknowns and some of them may in fact be very important, perhaps more important than all of our now-known variables.

    Supposing we follow a path because it seems like a good idea, that then takes us over an unexpected cliff of no return?  We listen to doctors and professionals every day who continually dispute what others of their same profession are saying.  It is obvious that there is not an overall consensus which means that propelling forces are not always even on the same page.  For instance, some say that viruses are randomly and dormant-ly in existence, while others say they are alive.  Who knows and does it matter?

    Well, if this virus can somehow survive for from 5-50 days depending upon the variables considered, how can quarantines of 14 days be appropriate, or are we just placating the masses to accept a number that they might otherwise not think is within their assessment of tolerance?  What if we all wore masks and did tests and then applied known cures?  Would we not then feel like we were on a road that was allowing us to make progress?  On the other hand, if we do not know where we are going, then any road will get us there, but where will that be?  Will we actually luck out and make a stumbling, bumbling inroad to progress or will we end up worse off than if we did nothing at all, simply by ignoring wisdom and common sense?

    If pertinent knowledge about a given situation is purposely withheld by our political leaders, under the auspices of their fear of (?hip-pa) laws or privacy laws that otherwise protect certain people and information from being publicly disclosed, then how are people to make educated decisions in any given area or region of the nation?  Misinformation is often worse than partial correct information, but our laws seem to prevent us from obtaining such information in a timely fashion, or at times even at all.   Supposing people knew that they had perhaps been in contact or association with a given person who was exposed or positive.  Would they not then know that they too should perhaps be extra careful or maybe get tested?  Yet such critical info often is either being withheld or is somehow distorted or only divulged when no longer pertinent.  We have set ourselves up for failure just due to the number of laws that we have whereby any people in authority can then decide on a whim whether or not to actually implement or enforce a given law, no matter the consequence of their actions.

    I really hate to make the case, but maybe the Mayans were correct when they decided not to advance their calendar forward to our present day situations.  Unfortunately we have evolved into a world where most people can no longer see further than their own noses.  Others act like they can but really cannot either, even though their educational and professional status might indicate that they can.  The other side of the aisle has a group who all seem to be "know-it-all's" and they comprise a batch of educated folks who take the stance that they already know everything so others are not allowed to confuse them with the facts, no matter how relevant they may be.

    Couple that with the fact that many medical organizations are so powerful that they can now dictate what will happen regardless of whether or not it makes sense, as long as it makes lots of cents.  I would say that we are all at the mercy of fate, and that fate predicated on so much knowledge that we can no longer make or expect proper rational complex decisions.   We may as well ask Forest Gump to step in and take over because everyone already there is either fraught with conflicts of interest or has professional blinders on that sway them to go in directions that may or may not be helpful soon enough.  No wonder Einstein said such things as this world will not go out with a bang, but with a whimper.

    We seem to be running on paths of potential self-destruction, no matter how hard a handful of well-meaning leaders try to get us back on track.  I think it is time for everyone to start thinking of others instead of just for their-selves,  and it might not hurt for people to pray for answers because we have proven that we are not always capable of dealing with all the unknown variables.  This nasty Covid-19 virus has come upon us in sneaky fashion at the worst possible time, both for individuals and for the masses.  Many do not realize nor recognize the absolute power it has to cause us to make serious wrong decisions, or even to know that beyond certain breaking trigger points we will reach undesirable destinations of no return -- Will those be to greener pastures or to a world-wide abyss and greater depression?

    Since the entire world is facing this same problem, will people gain commonality of disposition and work together to defeat this virus, or will we persist in a fruitless blame game against the supposed location with which the virus cropped up?  Will people recognize that it could have surfaced from anywhere that the conditions might have allowed it to, and that there may be even more to come just like it or worse, that could also creep out of anywhere else in the world.  Individual and collective energies wasted on such juvenile and unproductive antics are so much energies that might better be spent towards fixing the very problem itself.  Perhaps we all do need to go through this monstrous black-hole in order to re-orient ourselves back to the reality of why we are all here in the first place.

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  • Fri, Mar 27, 2020 - 3:41am

    #6
    French connexion

    French connexion

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    French gov't makes 180° turn

    and approves the use of :

    « Chapitre 7
    « Dispositions relatives à la mise à disposition de médicaments

    « Art. 12-2. - Par dérogation à l'article L. 5121-8 du code de la santé publique, l'hydroxychloroquine et l'association lopinavir/ritonavir peuvent être prescrits, dispensés et administrés sous la responsabilité d'un médecin aux patients atteints par le covid-19, dans les établissements de santé qui les prennent en charge, ainsi que, pour la poursuite de leur traitement si leur état le permet et sur autorisation du prescripteur initial, à domicile.

     

    Put that in you pipe and smoke it big pharma companies who wanted to make a big profit over our deaths.

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  • Fri, Mar 27, 2020 - 4:07am

    rushcard1

    rushcard1

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    I agree with random testing.

    I agree too, but that ought to include mandated masks and other protections.  It would not be beyond possibilities that situations could evolve which would then place many more people at risk, just due to different interpretations of what is supposed to be done.  It seems we are living in an Orwellian world where nearly everything said has double meanings so that what is intended to be said may or may not be what the recipient perceives as what was intended to be communicated to them and in the intended context.  I believe what we all need is a comprehensive package of beginning to end explanations of how this would be undertaken so as to produce meaningful standard results, rather than each location deciding on their own.  Also what possible decisions and actions will be taken pending those possible results.  Will we finally head in the direction of solution or will we merely feed the "paralysis of analysis" machine to generate more expensive studies while more people die from pneumonia that already has known cures which have been and continue to be ignored by supposedly educated and knowledgeable medical experts?

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  • Fri, Mar 27, 2020 - 5:46am

    #8
    LabCat

    LabCat

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    It is Starting Already

    I've noticed Worldometer and others have virtually no new cases listed. Is this the new norm?

    Local politicians seem to be embracing don't ask don't tell again as if there was a big conference call we weren't privy to. Does Trump have their back?

    Why not just tell us the banks are running the show so we can stay home on election day?

    I am disgusted with our government.

    P.S. I think new members should be limited to 250 words per post and anyone that corrects Chris's grammar should be forced to wear a shock collar.

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  • Fri, Mar 27, 2020 - 6:05am

    #9
    Draca

    Draca

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    Best guess of mortality rate

    Maybe I'm taking too simplistic an approach, but I've been estimating mortality rate like this:

    [No of deaths]/[No of identified cases 9 days previously] noting that the average time to death seems to be about 9 days after diagnosis. This mortality rate has been climbing steadily since the virus got out of China and is currently 12.4% at time of posting. Presumably this reflects the overload of health facilities in the current epicentres.

    Obviously this doesn't reflect the silent carriers and is therefore more of a maximum likely rate rather than a true rate.

    Thoughts?

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  • Fri, Mar 27, 2020 - 6:06am

    #10
    tkocou

    tkocou

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    Wear the mask

    If anyone needs a acceptable excuse to wear a mask in public, tell the scoffers that you are wearing a mask for the POLLEN season

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  • Fri, Mar 27, 2020 - 6:11am

    #11
    taz1999

    taz1999

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    A Chinese Case of COVID-19 Did Not Show Infectivity During the Incubation Period:

    The premise of the study just seems wrong to evidence I've seen.  I couldn't find the data beyond the abstract.

    https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32114755

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  • Fri, Mar 27, 2020 - 6:15am

    #12

    dtrammel

    Status: Silver Member

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    Interesting Take From A Businessman

    A bit gruff around the edge but a good look at another perspective

    https://www.texasmonthly.com/news/tilman-fertitta-coronavirus-interview/

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  • Fri, Mar 27, 2020 - 7:02am

    suziegruber

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: Dec 03 2008

    Posts: 191

    PDF of A Chinese Case of COVID-19 Did Not Show Infectivity During the Incubation Period

    This article appears to be open access.

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  • Fri, Mar 27, 2020 - 7:04am

    #14
    Jeff

    Jeff

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    Must Read!!!!!!!!!

    This is from a ER MD in New Orleans.

    https://texags.com/forums/84/topics/3102444?fbclid=IwAR3s13SRnw7YNgtu-7LZyrMUSMIRRWScU67lwbuwZM8fna-6R8k4tqrtO3w

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  • Fri, Mar 27, 2020 - 7:45am

    taz1999

    taz1999

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    Joined: Feb 25 2020

    Posts: 38

    suziegruber

    thanks

    Sample of 1????

     

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  • Fri, Mar 27, 2020 - 7:48am

    #16

    Barbara

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    Is population density an issue?

    Chris,

    Just got this.  The source is usually reliable.

    https://www.cnu.org/publicsquare/2020/03/23/plague-don%E2%80%99t-count-cities-out

    This looks right locally.  WI is only testing in cities, so the rural areas look cleaner, but on a per-capita basis that might not be so true.

    Do you have any good per capita data sources on a more granular basis (by UMPT, by county)?

    It sounds like trump is going to order back to work or NO AID based on total numbers, not per capita.  For those of us who are not in large urban areas this is a big problem.

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  • Fri, Mar 27, 2020 - 8:05am

    gnltabor

    Status: Member

    Joined: Apr 21 2010

    Posts: 34

    gnltabor said:

    Saw a recent post involving a Lupus sufferer who needs Chloroquine to combat the disease and was down to 30 days supply, unable to get the drug as demand has gone off the charts.  The two studies done had small populations of 40 and 30 patients, half of which received the medication and the other half a placebo.  The one study was inconclusive while the other suggested benefits.  These things need more time and many are now receiving the drug as parts of larger studies in places like University Hospitals in Cleveland where they have performed credible studies in the past on hundreds of drugs under trials.  Unfortunately, these things take time.  In the mean time, drug manufacturers need time to ramp up supplies, but they will not do so unless there's a proven benefit and need.

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  • Fri, Mar 27, 2020 - 8:10am

    #18
    yogmonster

    yogmonster

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    Medium Digest free blog, and articles

    Medium Digest set up a free blog, and articles

     

    https://coronavirus.medium.com/

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  • Fri, Mar 27, 2020 - 8:28am

    #19

    AKGrannyWGrit

    Status: Silver Member

    Joined: Feb 06 2011

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    Suzi Gruber and anyone feeling stressed

    Also taz1999

    I looked at printing the brochure but getting printed copied would be nicer.  Can you provide a link to purchase these?  Am happy to pay for these and pass them out to people I know.

    * Suzi created an awesome pamphlet on emotional resilience during a crisis folks.  I bet a lot of people would benefit from your pamphlet and you are not selling it, I had to contact you and track it down so no  conflict of interest on Suzi’s part.  I just see my grown kids feeling stressed and her pamphlet can help.

    ** Want yo help people, hand them a pamphlet that described what stress symptoms are, they are normal, and here to how to deal with them.

    Thanks so much!

    AKGrannyWGrit

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  • Fri, Mar 27, 2020 - 8:32am

    #20
    South Ranger

    South Ranger

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    High Cost of Being Wrong: What about Nursing Homes?

    It seems that Nursing Homes serve as a pretty sensitive canary in the coal mine. Can we debunk Scenario B on the grounds that if the disease was so contagious in an asymptomatic fashion that it had already saturated the population by orderS of magnitude beyond detection, then it should have inoculated Nursing Homes within said population? We've already seen what happens when it gets into these care facilities. The B scenario can then only be supported if it is argued that a less dangerous strain is responsible for this unmeasured, theoretical and widespread infection.

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  • Fri, Mar 27, 2020 - 8:34am

    #21
    nordicjack

    nordicjack

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    Joined: Feb 03 2020

    Posts: 522

    Everyone's CFRs are likely accurate if understanding some important details.

    You must take into account , how and who is being tested along with population within the sample.

    For instance, Italy does have a much higher aged population than other countries.  So lets say that in italy , average age of infection is 62, where in South Korea its 42.  That is a big difference.  Even data from china was consistent to show , less total infections in elderly with a larger percent of total deaths.  So, the elderly represent a a very disproportionate share of burden by this illness.   So when compare , lets say, so korea to italy, you should get a shocking disparity.  And we do see this.

    Then you must account for surveillance.  The more cases you catch the lower the CFR is , we clearly can see this in Germany and So Korea , which are doing a good job here.

    Finally, you have to account for burden on the medical system.   This is obviously capable of infecting more than the flu,  and elderly people are exceptionally vulnerable.  Once , your medical system is beyond capacity , bad things will happen , increasing deaths needlessly.  We are seeing this in Italy, and will likely see in larger metros in the US.

    The take-away:

    CFR is something influenced by your population ( retirement communities will see higher CFRs)

    CFR is also influenced by surveillance,  which has a 2-fold effect.  It controls spread and decreases ratio or deaths to cases.  But also helps to keep the burden off the medical system and thereby minimizes needless deaths.

    So, in the end, all these countries can be fairly correct, and the disparity can be accounted for.

    What this tells us,  Is this may not be as deadly over-all,  But if we do not take action , we can cause a lot of needless deaths by extremely overwhelming the medical system.  Meaning our actions today can actually influence the death rate.  Its not a hard and fast exact.    We have control.

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  • Fri, Mar 27, 2020 - 8:40am

    #22
    bigpig1

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    NYC Doctor says spread is primarily by touch(your face)

    https://vimeo.com/399733860?ref=fb-share&1

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  • Fri, Mar 27, 2020 - 8:49am

    #23

    AKGrannyWGrit

    Status: Silver Member

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    Hey Sparky1 Is This Rumor True?

    I listened to John Campbells daily up-date today.  He said LA was buying test kits from South Korea. Then wondered why the CDC wasn’t supplying them?

    Me too! Why is the CDC so incompetent?

    Thanks Sparky, you are awesome!

    AKGrannyWGrit

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  • Fri, Mar 27, 2020 - 8:51am

    Credenda

    Credenda

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    Credenda said:

    Gummint

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  • Fri, Mar 27, 2020 - 8:59am

    #25
    LabCat

    LabCat

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    THE FIX IS IN

    Welp...

    https://www.foxnews.com/us/cuomo-closing-all-businesses-keeping-everyone-home-not-best-public-health-strategy?fbclid=IwAR1wvKhUddaC8diMGIe1cR79CGkUNmcn4jCcxuPnHW7cq-e93G7j2ZWFGvU

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  • Fri, Mar 27, 2020 - 9:24am

    #26
    RebelYell

    RebelYell

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    Tedros video

    This is a must watch.

    Video describes Tedros' multi-decade track record of almost unbelievable criminality.  Involvement in terrorism, mass murder, tortue, covering up cholera epidemics, denying medical treatment to children, other massive human rights abuses.

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  • Fri, Mar 27, 2020 - 9:38am

    #27
    karenpath

    karenpath

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    anthem

    https://m.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=10218376617061095&id=1062811331

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  • Fri, Mar 27, 2020 - 9:46am

    #28

    gnltabor

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    Joined: Apr 21 2010

    Posts: 34

    1+

    How China is managing forward after lockdown.

    Chris made the point multiple times that wearing masks is the answer.  If only it were that simple.  Masks were predominantly made in Asia, and they are consuming all they can make under present conditions.  We need to ramp up mask production on a grand scale!  We may need to extend the lock downs until masks are sufficiently available for everyone to have supplies and wear them when out in public.

    At the risk of being redundant, I'll share again a video produced by Japanese media of how China is managing today.  Four things are being done; 1) Anyone from outside the country is required to go through a 14 day quarantine, 2)  Everyone is required to wear masks while in public, 3) Social distancing is strictly administered, and 4) temperatures are being checked continually at the entrance to public places which are channeled using barriers to control the flow of people.  Watch this video for the full story but it looks as if they are managing to function in a limited fashion while controlling further outbreaks.

    I would think we could use adherence to this process as a basis to eventually lift air travel bans and 14-day quarantines as long as the traveler is not running a temp at departure and arrival.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=13&v=YfsdJGj3-jM&feature=emb_logo

     

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  • Fri, Mar 27, 2020 - 9:50am

    #29
    westcoastjan

    westcoastjan

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    Finding patience in the panic

    https://thetyee.ca/News/2020/03/26/Pandemic-Plot-Arc/

    This underscores how social distancing will take time to show effect. We are well conditioned to have/expect everything fixed in a hurry, as if in a 30 minute tv show. There is no fast turnaround time for this, health wise, financially or economically. Patience while under grave threat is needed, however difficult that may be.

    I suppose being patient is tied directly to trust in authority. I can be patient if I have confidence that correct, science and data based decisions are being made for the benefit of everyone, and not only vested interests or political ends. There are pockets of that going on across the globe, but not enough for me to give my complete trust. That is where my fears come from.

    While all countries have the same end goals in this crisis (at least I hope that is the case), the approaches are not the same, which is reasonable considering the different ideologies, politics & leadership styles. But what is the point of any given country ‘A’ doing a great job when neighbouring country ‘B’ undermines those efforts by remaining stuck in denial, indecision and ignorance, which clearly we do not have the luxury of time for?

    How far must we fall, what must we lose, what price must we pay before people, managers, bankers, and leaders realize it is not all about them?

    Jan

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  • Fri, Mar 27, 2020 - 9:53am

    #30
    Steve

    Steve

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    Posts: 140

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    Disinfectant recipe?

    Can anyone please share the home recipe for disinfectant in a spray bottle?

    We have isopropyl alcohol, vinegar, bleach, hydrogen peroxide and water.

    What is the recommendation for a mixture in a spray bottle?

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  • Fri, Mar 27, 2020 - 10:04am

    #31
    vshelford

    vshelford

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    Posts: 142

    Interesting "Pandemic Log"

    at https://homerdixon.com/pandemic-log/

    by a Canadian professor and author - he's good at synthesis and complexity, and his takes are very like Chris' but it's always interesting to see different approaches.  His are very academic.

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  • Fri, Mar 27, 2020 - 10:20am

    vshelford

    vshelford

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    Re Interesting Take From A Businessman

    Thanks dtrammel - that is a very interesting interview.  Gives the most practical, down-to-earth explanation for the sense of urgency to get this thing under control.  Doesn't pretend to knowledge he doesn't have, but clearly expresses the fix everyone is in.  And clearly explains where the lines between rich and poor start to get fuzzy in a situation like this.

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  • Fri, Mar 27, 2020 - 10:26am

    loj-ikul

    loj-ikul

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    An answer to why hydroxychloroquine is being sidelined as a cure.

    If a person tests positive for Covid 19, doctors are not allowed to prescribe hydroxychloroquine to Outpatients. The reason (or excuse) is it has not been scientifically  proven. If they get worse  with fever or shortness of breath they are then told to go to the hospital.

    There they are asked if they want to participate in a trial for the antiviral remdesivir or try taking hydroxychloroquine. I believe they can not be taken together. Which one are patients likely choosing(sold on)?

    The one that is not being attacked and dismissed by the corporate media. The one that costs a whole lot more and which the WHO pushes. The one that China has increased massive production of.

    Last week, Gilead said it has patented remdesivir in China, including filing applications for use on coronaviruses. The company also said that it is working with Chinese, U.S. and World Health Organization officials to rapidly determine whether the drug can be used to treat the virus.https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-02-12/chinese-company-says-it-can-make-gilead-s-coronavirus-drug

     

    WHO officials anointed Gilead Sciences' remdesivir as the most promising potential treatment for the disease.

    https://www.fool.com/investing/2020/03/08/3-stocks-that-are-actually-

    up-because-of-coronavir.aspx

     

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  • Fri, Mar 27, 2020 - 10:40am

    dtrammel

    Status: Silver Member

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    Careful What You Mix Steve

    Chemistry can be a b!4ch, lol.

    https://www.buzzfeed.com/peggy/16-common-product-combinations-you-should-never-mix

    Bleach + Vinegar = Toxic Chlorine Gas

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  • Fri, Mar 27, 2020 - 10:47am

    #35

    robshepler

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    Imact on the health insurance industry?

    A windy spitty day is keeping me inside and out of the garden, these numbers are to huge for my little mind, to huge for my old version of excel as well, but here goes.
    330 million folks in the US, 80% for herd immunity = 264 million sick and recovered, assuming no fatalities.
    My out of pocket for a three week stay with the nice folks in the hospital, $17,400, in ICU $23,700. My guess is this is low, but appears to be a national average.
    So 39 million hospitalized, 13 million in the ICU looks to be about 1 trillion Americans co-pays, 2.3 trillion in insurance claims to reach herd immunity.
    Is my math right?
    Anybody have a guess as to the reserves in the Health Insurance industry?

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  • Fri, Mar 27, 2020 - 11:23am

    #36

    LesPhelps

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    Posts: 620

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    China satellite factory emission images?

    Chris,

    Can you provide a link to the satellite images of Chinese factory emissions?  You showed them a few weeks ago and I’m wondering what they look like now.

    With China in complete control of the virus, they should be showing much more visible emissions, right? 😎

     

    I

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  • Fri, Mar 27, 2020 - 12:01pm

    Montana Native

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    Posts: 113

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    CDC cleaning guidelines

    https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/prepare/disinfecting-your-home.html

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  • Fri, Mar 27, 2020 - 12:45pm

    #38

    Jim H

    Status: Bronze Member

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    Posts: 1162

    4+

    Text from my daughter regarding situation NYC

    My daughter is in health care mgt. in CA.. here is what she just heard;

    NYC hospitals and EMS have hit their flex capacity.  There are lines outside of emergency rooms and there aren't enough ambulances to keep up with call demand

    Realize that most people/families in NYC don't maintain a car, hence you don't just jump in the car and drive or get driven to the hospital like 99% of us would anywhere else.  This is bad, period.

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  • Fri, Mar 27, 2020 - 12:55pm

    #39
    skipr

    skipr

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    evolution of diseases

    This extremely interesting one just appeared.  It was recorded over 10 years ago.  There's no youtube link, so I don't know if it will come through.  He doesn't mention overpopulation as a primary cause and the possibility of bioweapons is absolutely taboo.

    https://nutritionfacts.org/video/pandemics-history-prevention/?utm_source=NutritionFacts.org&utm_campaign=71b00b9d14-RSS_VIDEO_DAILY&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_40f9e497d1-71b00b9d14-23770733&mc_cid=71b00b9d14

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  • Fri, Mar 27, 2020 - 1:13pm

    ao

    ao

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    rob, they don't need reserves

    They just turn around and jack up your premiums, delay or deny payments to providers, and slash payments to providers.  They also keep paying off their government lackeys to keep any serious regulation off their backs.  It's a formula that's worked well for them for years.  Why would they change now?

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  • Fri, Mar 27, 2020 - 1:40pm

    #41
    Rrobles

    Rrobles

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    Home garden soil

    Hi there, anyone have any suggestions for type of soil to buy for a raised bed?  Super new at this gardening thing 😳. Thanks!

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  • Fri, Mar 27, 2020 - 2:08pm

    vshelford

    vshelford

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    Re Home Garden Soil

    Hi there, anyone have any suggestions for type of soil to buy for a raised bed? Super new at this gardening thing 😳. Thanks!

    My suggestion would be, the best you can afford.  How big are the beds?  Are they small enough that you're looking at buying soil in bags, or large so you're getting a truck-load or two?  In either case, try to include some manure or other organic fertilizer to mix in, as what is often sold as "garden soil" is not generally very rich.  And my own lifetime preference is to figure on a thick layer of mulch on top when you've planted, as it both keeps moisture in AND breaks down and enriches the soil.  My current raised beds after 20 years have soil I could only have dreamed of when it first went in, and it achieved close to that in 2 or 3 years of 8 inches of spoiled hay or straw mulch.  Soil is an on-going project.  I'll be interested in what other responses you get, but that's my take.

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  • Fri, Mar 27, 2020 - 2:11pm

    #43
    MQ

    MQ

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    Good News Friday

    Thank you, thank you. Always welcome--now more than ever.

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  • Fri, Mar 27, 2020 - 2:19pm

    nordicjack

    nordicjack

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    Rebel tedros - is a joke and a criminal

    Most govt officials are bad people and criminal against citizens and civilians.   Abuse of power is a very simple concept and little is done to stop it.

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  • Fri, Mar 27, 2020 - 2:20pm

    MQ

    MQ

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    Who woulda thunk it???

    Search Results

    Web results

    Donald H. Rumsfeld Named Chairman of Gilead Sciences

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  • Fri, Mar 27, 2020 - 2:23pm

    #46
    nordicjack

    nordicjack

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    My feeling - speaking with my customers and suppliers

    Basically, young and working middle age people , want to just go back to living and expect elderly, sick people to protect themselves.     I am feeling they( officials ) are ready to pull the plug on lockdown.   And the ethics of the medical community , will be we cant help you, if you die you die. there is no cure for this.. US govt will be happy,  Tons of medicare and SS saved.   done and done..

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  • Fri, Mar 27, 2020 - 2:24pm

    #47
    Sparky1

    Sparky1

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    Posts: 734

    PM of GB Boris Johnson tests positive for Covid-19, self-isolating (video)

    Coronavirus: Boris Johnson says he's tested positive

    "Speaking in a video posted on social media, he said he would work from home but continue to lead the "fightback" against the disease."

    https://www.bbc.com/news/av/uk-52065395/coronavirus-boris-johnson-says-he-s-tested-positive

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  • Fri, Mar 27, 2020 - 2:41pm

    #48
    westcoastjan

    westcoastjan

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    Hopeful progress in BC - March 27 update

    https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/physical-distancing-bc-covid19-coronavirus-1.5512269

    There is a dramatic increase in protective measures everywhere, even from just last week, which is great. It seems the majority are social distancing well with just a few covidiots still showing their obtuseness.

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  • Fri, Mar 27, 2020 - 2:54pm

    dtrammel

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    7+

    Garden Soil, Depends on What's Under Your Bed.

    Hi there, anyone have any suggestions for type of soil to buy for a raised bed?  Super new at this gardening thing. Thanks!

    Welcome Rrobles. How tall/deep are you doing your beds?

    When I put mine in I didn't go that tall. I used concrete blocks for a boarder which are less than a foot tall, but I dug down about 18" below the ground as I put them in, removed the soil and then mixed in compose before putting the whole thing back into the hole. St Louis has a high percent of clay in the soil, so it gets packed tight with some rain. I wanted to loosen it up so the plants could grow deep roots. Here's a picture:

    I'm renting a duplex and my small garden is along the fence line on the South side, so it gets good sun.

    One of the things you can do if you are first putting the beds in, is at the bottom lay in a layer of any twigs, sticks, leaves you have from the Winter. Its a technique called "hugelkultur". Google it. That's a good way to put a lot of organic material into your soil.

    You can also add sand or other soil additives depending on what you are going to plant. Check the web for suggestions.

    One thing not related to soil you can also do, is put in a underground watering system using pvc pipe.

    This is a raised bed on either side of a fence. I used 1" pvc I got from Home Depot, with connectors. The pipe in the ground has 1/8" holes drill all along its bottom length that way the water drains out into the soil under the surface. With all that clay, wet soil will glaze up and get really hard in the hot Summer. The two up pipes are what I water it with. Put two up pipes that way air has someplace to come out when you fill the bed.

    Those are actually called "partitioning blocks". They are the same size as concrete blocks, but half as wide. I like them because the small holes can be filled with some dirt and flowers planted in them. Companion planting can help with insects as well as feed the local pollinators.

    PVC is good for making tressels too. I've got cherry tomatoes in one and last year it was cucumbers, but I didn't have much luck with those. Might try beans this year.

    ADDED: These pictures are from last years garden start of the season

     

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  • Fri, Mar 27, 2020 - 3:00pm

    Linda T

    Linda T

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    Re: garden soil

    Rrobles,

    Yes, soil is an ongoing thing because the earthworms and microbial life you can't see "eat" organic matter such as leaves, wood chips, pruned branches, grass clippings, etc. It's always good to aim for approx a 40:1 ratio of carbon (brown) to nitrogen (green and food waste) content for composting. Work on feeding the life in the soil, and your trees, bushes, and veggies will be much happier and healthier. No glyposhate though! It's systemic and can end up killing the pollinators and other beneficial insects.

    How large an area do you have to work with? Do you want to start with one bed? Two? How many? Does the property or place where you live have any "hilly" areas? You could work on relocating it into your bed(s) and adding organic matter you have in the area if need be. What is your soil like? How much clay? sand? any humus (organic matter)? If you want to work on one (or two) bed(s) for this year's veggies, you could be overwhelmed if you try to do too much if it's your first year and there is a learning curve!! So, while this year's crops are growing, you could start setting up new bed(s) for additional crops for next year, so you’re creating soil with Nature’s help rather than buying soil. For those beds you could do lasagna gardening. Which is creating alternating layers of cardboard & or newspaper (but no slick paper ads) which you moisten, add some of your existing soil with some type of nitrogen (grass clippings, "weeds", etc.), and repeat. You can also use branches from pruned bushes but depending on how large they are they may not be fully decomposed by next year, which is ok, it leaves food for the critters.

    I said "weeds" above, because collectively we don't understand weeds and their messages (depending upon which weeds/pioneer species show up they can tell you a lot about the soil). Many of them have medicinal properties, are edible raw or cooked (some are both and some only cooked and some raw), and are nature's healers. Once soil is disturbed and bare (Nature hates bare and disturbed soils, as well as vacuums, and it also doesn't do straight lines.) Dandelions are a perfect example of a misunderstood pioneer species. It's edible, medicinal, and has deep roots so it brings up important minerals from deep below to heal the soil. Some can even be used for dying paper or fibers, make wine (for example dandelion), etc.  Eventually, depending on what we do or don't do, it will "mine" itself out of a job, and the next succession of species will start to show up. Takes a really really long time, not in our timeframe we like, but the climax species (depending on the climate) are trees and a forest.

    Linda

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  • Fri, Mar 27, 2020 - 3:04pm

    #51
    ezlxq1949

    ezlxq1949

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    Earthworms, compost worms carry no known diseases

    and are a vital component of good soil.

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  • Fri, Mar 27, 2020 - 3:18pm

    #52

    dtrammel

    Status: Silver Member

    Joined: May 03 2011

    Posts: 792

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    Vaporized Hydrogen Peroxide For Masks

    Adam sent me a link to an article about Duke University on a new way to sterilize masks using vaporized Hydrogen Peroxide. It took me a little time to find the original press release.

    https://corporate.dukehealth.org/news-listing/duke-starts-novel-decontamination-n95-masks-help-relieve-shortages

    While I applaud anyone doing the research, it appears this is a method mostly for large hospitals or medical centers, since it requires specialized equipment.

    This highlights one facet of this crisis, that we need two tracks of research and methods, those usable by the home bound and individuals, and the methods usable in large settings.

     

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  • Fri, Mar 27, 2020 - 3:21pm

    #53
    Linda T

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    another positive aspect to soil

    Big difference between soil and dirt though. Dirt is dead, no life in it, is usually used for infill, and looks, smells, and feels different.

    Soil is alive, feels and smells yummy. Putting your hands, no gloves, into soil is a great thing to do. "They" (don't remember, but I've seen reference to studies, etc. about this topic and have experienced it myself...) have said that soil has natural anti-depressants in it.

    Linda

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  • Fri, Mar 27, 2020 - 3:27pm

    #54

    dtrammel

    Status: Silver Member

    Joined: May 03 2011

    Posts: 792

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    Using Microwaves and Steam to Disinfect Masks

    Here is something we as individuals can use though.

    https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3078131/

    "Evaluation of Microwave Steam Bags for the Decontamination of Filtering Facepiece Respirators"

    Some good numbers and charts. Looks like you could use the bags, or I actually had picked up one of these early in the crisis.

    https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B007VBXKG2/

    Under $20 and still in stock. One note, you would need to remove the metal nose band before microwaving any masks.

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  • Fri, Mar 27, 2020 - 3:36pm

    #55
    Sparky1

    Sparky1

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    Chris' newest video: "Everyone Should Wear a Mask!" (3/27/20)

    A Simple Way To Combat Coronavirus: Everyone Should Wear A Mask! (3/20/20)

    https://youtu.be/yN3BWaEH3tY

     

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  • Fri, Mar 27, 2020 - 4:05pm

    #56
    green_achers

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    "Buy" soil?

    Soil is not something you can buy. It is a 4-dimensional phenomenon, an ever-changing community of beings of all five life kingdoms in an ever-changing mineral matrix. How much rain and sunlight it receives and its history is just as much a part of what it *is* as any other physical or biological component.

    Sorry, I don't mean to sound discouraging, but if you are coming around asking what kind of soil to buy, just accept that you are not going to grow anything worthwhile this year. Not without spending far more on exotic inputs with long-term hidden costs than the value of any produce you are going to get out of it. Better to just go out and begin studying what you have to work with. I assume you are talking about doing something on some piece of ground that you have access to. Get a shovel or a digging fork. Turn some of your ground over. Look at it. What do you see? Anything growing in it, plant or animal? Ask yourself how much moisture it is going to get during the growing season. What other sources of water do you have available to you? Look up and around. Where is sunlight coming from? How many hours a day does your spot get? How many days on average are cloudy during the growing season? Who had this before you, and what did they do with it?

    Seriously, if I had only a small piece of land to work with, and anyone thinking about "buying" soil can only be talking about a very small piece of land, the main thing I would do in year 1 is sheet mulch it and build myself the biggest compost heap that I could right smack in the middle of it.

    Maybe by late summer, you would be ready to spread it out and put a few potatoes into it.

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  • Fri, Mar 27, 2020 - 4:11pm

    VegasJim

    VegasJim

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    Thanks!

    Thank you.  This might be the best $17 spent in a while!

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  • Fri, Mar 27, 2020 - 4:35pm

    westcoastjan

    westcoastjan

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    Unhelpful reply green_archers

    I thought your reply to a rookie gardener looking for advice was rather pathetic. We are trying to encourage people to start gardening, not crap on them for their lack of knowledge. Geez, way to be a trooper...

    There are many types of bagged soils, or bulk for those who have a truck, that can be purchased to get someone started. At this juncture it is important to help people find ways to begin, even if only in a few containers so that they can learn as well as have some quick wins to build confidence. Who cares if they blow a few bucks on bagged soil? While their few veggies are growing they can sit and read the many forums here as well as other resources to find solutions for their particular spaces, and make a plan for what they can do going forward. Rome was not built over night!

    Helping is the name of the game. Can/will you do that? If not, why are you here?

    Jan

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  • Fri, Mar 27, 2020 - 4:46pm

    LesPhelps

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    Garden Soil

    The town I live in now provides free compost, so I use that to fill my raised beds here.

    At my previous location, I used a sheet mulching technique.  I put a layer of cardboard on the existing grass and threw down a few bags of manure to attract worms.  The bulk of the volume was leaves and grass clippings I saved at the end of the fall season.  Basically, I bagged my lawn and dumped the grass clipping and chopped up leaves in the beds and let them sit for the winter.  I shot for a mixture of 2/3 leaves and 1/3 grass clippings.  In the spring, I covered the beds with 1 to 2 inches of top soil to plant in.  I got an excellent crop, without fertilizing and by the end of the season, the contents were completely composted into soil.

    There is a lot of info on the internet and YouTube about sheet mulching.

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  • Fri, Mar 27, 2020 - 4:47pm

    #60
    Rrobles

    Rrobles

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    Rrobles said:

    Thanks to all for taking the time to share all the helpful information!   I like what you did with your garden Dtrammel: seems very cost-effective too!

    I’ve ordered three 2 x 4 x 10 h open-bottom planters two of which I’d like to use for vegetables (potatoes, carrots, zucchini, garlic, onion) and one for blueberry bushes.  Initially, I wanted to try square-foot gardening but I don’t think we will get around to building the frames as we have other projects around the house to complete.   According to the square-foot gardening method, the recommended soil mix is 1/3 of peat moss, compost, and vermiculite.  Then I read elsewhere that peat moss isn’t sustainable.  So I wondered if there were any other options.

    I don’t know much about the soil in my area (Seattle) but I do know the contractor who put my fence in said it was harder than any he’s ever worked with.  He had to use a power washer to loosen the soil first!  This is really one of the reasons why I figured we have to buy soil for a raised garden bed.  However, one of the locations for my garden bed will be on an existing flower bed which we cleared, so that may be ok.

    I am also wondering about the location of the beds.  I had initially picked a spot that has sun from morning to night, but read that there should be a bit of shade in the afternoon.  Is that right?  I suppose it might depend on the type of vegetables I’ll be planting.

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  • Fri, Mar 27, 2020 - 5:13pm

    Mohammed Mast

    Mohammed Mast

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    3+

    Rrobles

    boy howdy that is a great question with a million answers of which you will be getting a goodly portion here (already some good advice) . since no one knows where you live it is difficult to get too specific. I have been organic gardening for 65 years and I am still learning new things, thank god. I have lots of friends involved in organic farming , csa's farmers markets, etc. No matter what route you take you will have to add soil amendments. A good place to start is with a soil test. County extension offices provide that free of charge. I think for the first year it would probably good just to think of your bed as a "growing medium" . Like hydroponics, water is the growing medium. A way to avoid buying soil is to solarize the ground. I am against tilling as god did a pretty good job of layering the soil and if left alone will grow lots of stuff. A couple of organic farmers I know roll out a big roll of black plastic over their rows which have drip irrigation ( cheap from the big box stores) , burn holes for their plants with a propane torch then plant in the holes. they then covet the plastic with whatever organic matter they have (leaves , straw, well rotted hay, i am not a big fan of hay because dang it always has seeds that i don't want in my garden, So presto a very little expense easy way  to get going the first year. I am focusing on quick easy things because it is getting late. As for soil amendments I start with manure. If there is no local source (rabbit, horse, cow etc) you can always go to a garden center and get some bags of manure. My next in line is soft rock phosphate also  known as calphos. After that I add Azomite which is a rock mineral that comes from Utah. The guy who discovered the deposit lived to be 90 something. He would put some in a glass of water everyday and drink it. It is used in animal feed. It is called Azomite because it has A to Z minerals. I use chicken feather meal for my nitrogen , wood ashes for my potash. Most people don't know but earth worms love the minerals. Actually if you create a great home with lots of food for them they will grow your garden for you. Last but not least I add paramagnetic rock dust. This stuff is pretty amazing. It is not a fertilizer. It is magic. It has been found that it works even if it is contained and not in contact with the soil. It has been placed inside an old garden hose and laid in the bed and it has magicall increased yields and shortened maturation time. I got turned onto it by a retire USDA scientist (if you can believe that) He had grown corn with a 90 day maturation in 57 days. That means 2 corn crops in one year in certain parts of the country. The really cool thing is you just add it once and it lasts 50 or more years.

    So if I were you ( and lived in a moderately good area ( not the desert lol) I would just plant in the ground sheet compost add the amendments ( use the plastic if you want, btw the lumber yards just give away those big tarps that lumber comes wrapped in, generally white on one side black on the other. If you want to use them they are useful for all kinds of things and when they fall apart just throw them away. )  mulch heavy. Then in the fall when all is said and done you can build your bed/beds right on top of some pretty good soil. Btw if you use the lumber wrappers if you put the black side up be sure to mulch well as they will get hot in the summer and burn your plants.

    Gardening is not a one shot one size fits all deal. Find and talk to some local gardeners and see what works for them. As you can tell us gardeners like to share what we know and get some good info from them' that are doin. Almost forgot, I would start growing some mushrooms. As has been mentioned here they are great for the immune system. You can do logs (they last for years or sawdust. Just need a shady spot and water. You can dry them in the sun and they pick up vit d. When dry they last a long time. I get my spawn from the Mushroom people at The Farm in Tennessee. It is the commune started by Stephen Gaskin. Great people.

    Good luck

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  • Fri, Mar 27, 2020 - 5:23pm

    Mohammed Mast

    Mohammed Mast

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: May 17 2017

    Posts: 499

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    Rrobles update

    Just saw that you are in Seattle. Damn start with mushrooms. You can grow zillions of them there. It is absolutely the perfect climate. Get started now and you might have a good crop in the fall. Plant the blueberries in peat. they like acid. They like lots of water a little at a time. They don't like wet feet so make sure they have good drainage. I would not put them in the beds. I dug holes 2 feet deep and 2 feet wide and filled them with peat. In retrospect I would have gone wider and not as deep. They are shallow rooted. Btw I like to foliar feed with Maxi Crop and fish emulsion during the growing season. I make my beds no wider than 3 feet which makes it easy to work from either side.

     

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  • Fri, Mar 27, 2020 - 5:27pm

    #63
    vshelford

    vshelford

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    Joined: Jul 13 2014

    Posts: 142

    1+

    More about soil and new gardens

    Another possibility you might consider, if you have access to them, is to start with a straw bale garden - lots of info on the web about how to do it.  With a heavy clay base, you may not have time to build something up for this year, but this would let you start growing right away.  By next year, the bales will have broken down and be terrific compost to enrich your beds.  When I built my second lot of raised beds (very high sides - I have no soil below, just rock), I couldn't afford to truck in enough soil to fill the beds, so I put in the best I could get, and filled up the rest with hay bales (a local farm had some spoiled bales they couldn't use for feed).  You have to prep the bales for about a month, but then you can start planting.  In my experience, everything grew beautifully, and now the soil/composted hay beds are continuing to build up as an excellent growing medium.  (The difference between hay and straw is that hay has more nutrient in it, but also more seeds that will try to grow and you'll have to keep weeding.  Straw has somewhat less nutrient, but also fewer unwanted seeds.)

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  • Fri, Mar 27, 2020 - 5:41pm

    sofistek

    Status: Platinum Member

    Joined: Oct 02 2008

    Posts: 712

    1+

    Lack of good data

    I think any estimate of the fatality rate is almost as bad as using a random number generator because the data is so poor. The numbers in the worldometer table or the Johns Hopkins app vary so widely across the world that it's impossible to figure out a rate overall. There have been a few studies to date - based on Diamond Princess data, based on the Vo, Italy data and based on extensive random testing in Iceland. Probably 10 people could made 10 different estimates from those data.

    Personally, I'm expecting the fatality rate to eventually be calculated above 1% but less than 2%. But that's just a finger in the air number. The best we can say with any certainty is that this is much more infectious and much more fatal than than 'flu.

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  • Fri, Mar 27, 2020 - 5:43pm

    #65
    Roadlesstaken

    Roadlesstaken

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    Joined: Dec 27 2011

    Posts: 5

    Great modeling video

    Nice SIR modeling by changing variables: https://youtu.be/gxAaO2rsdIs

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  • Fri, Mar 27, 2020 - 5:54pm

    #66

    sofistek

    Status: Platinum Member

    Joined: Oct 02 2008

    Posts: 712

    1+

    Germany and other data

    I see that the serious/critical number for Germany is now much more believable at 1,581 but their death numbers seem so much less than others with case numbers in the same ball park. The case and death rates vary hugely across countries which begs the question  of whether all have the same virus and the same species of humans.

    Of course, we don't know whether the rates are an artifact of testing (I haven't seen testing data for various countries or the policies applied to testing).

    If some countries are deliberately reporting misleading numbers, one must ask why? It helps no-one to not have the most complete data. Even my own country seems to have some numbers that don't make sense - the number recovered has been greater than the number of confirmed cases just a few days ago, which makes no sense unless some recoveries happened only hours or a couple of days after testing positive.

    So we continue to speculate on what this all means, and policies are being formed on the basis of bad or incomplete data.

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  • Fri, Mar 27, 2020 - 6:02pm

    #67
    Mohammed Mast

    Mohammed Mast

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    Posts: 499

    2+

    John Kerry calls Re. Massie an ...hole

    LOL

    Kerry of Skull and Bones fame married to Heinz 57 kinds millions calls Rep, Massie an asshole for wanting a real vote on the theft, er I mean stimulation. i guess he thinks somebody ought to read it before they vote on it, what an absolutely novel idea. Maybe we could get a clue on what lobbyists wrote it.

    The funny thing is none of them want to go back to DC because they would be afraid of getting infected, what with being in close quarters with each other. Not one picture have I seen where any of these bozos are practicing social distancing. They could wear masks then we wouldn't know who they are. LOL

    This whole sorry bunch of mid level mismanagers  has bungled this thing since the beginning and the ones who will get rewarded are their corporate masters.

    Here is the calculus. Pay off the corporate benefactors, blow up another bubble, put people back to work in 3 weeks (the corporations will pocket the money and then the unemployment benefits will be done) No telling how many will die or be permanently damaged but most of those who die will be SS recipients and Medicare recipients. Long term that will save a ton on those " entitlements) Trump and cronies will cut off Federal aid to those states that don't comply with going back to work. The second wave of the virus will be much worse.

    Then they have the balls to call it " The Save the Workers Bill"

    I agree with O'Toole . "That Murphy was a damn optimist"

    Who was it that said "never let a good crisis go to waste"?

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  • Fri, Mar 27, 2020 - 6:03pm

    Oliveoilguy

    Status: Silver Member

    Joined: Jun 29 2012

    Posts: 713

    2+

    I would buy compost instead of soil

    Compost is sold in bulk in our area. It has more beneficial bacteria than “soil”.

    If it is hot and steaming, it cannot be planted in until it is “finished”. Finished means that it has gone through a cycle that uses nitrogen and oxygen to accelerate the decaying process.  When the decaying process is done, this is a great material to use as soil or to add to your existing soil.

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  • Fri, Mar 27, 2020 - 6:26pm

    #69
    bethiew

    bethiew

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    Joined: Sep 27 2008

    Posts: 3

    2+

    Home isolation area

    Hi all,  I'm sure this has been discussed here but I can't find the answer!  We are needing to set up a home isolation area for our son who is a healthcare worker in our local hospital.  We have an area of our home with a door to the outside and it's own bathroom.  We have put plastic over all of the vents and taped them to seal them off.  To seal the area off to the rest of the house we hung painters plastic and sealed it all the way around (assuming the virus can't travel thru plastic??).  After work, everything is taken off including shoes before entering the house and kept in the garage until laundry is done.  We bring food to the door and the only contact we have is out in the backyard a good 12' apart.  We are also spending time with him on the other side of the painters plastic as we can hear and see him and it helps to be able to spend time with him and live as normal as we can right now.  He has no symptoms and he don't even know if exposure has happened or not, we are assuming it will happen within a week based on current cases and how quickly they are moving.  Any help would be appreciated.  If there is a post about this already, can someone point me to it?  THANK YOU!!!!

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  • Fri, Mar 27, 2020 - 6:33pm

    LabCat

    LabCat

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    Posts: 45

    2+

    What an ego on that guy.

    Wow! I hope the wizened sage of soil gets mutated aphids with canine teeth.

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  • Fri, Mar 27, 2020 - 6:42pm

    #71

    dtrammel

    Status: Silver Member

    Joined: May 03 2011

    Posts: 792

    3+

    LOL Rrobles, As You Can See Soil is a "Dirty" Subject

    Soil, like politics, is a subject everyone has an opinion on.

    As some have mentioned, good soil is a rich and varied ecosystem, with microbes living in layers. The ones in the 1-3" depth are different from the ones at 12-18". When I first started, by digging up my area down to 18" I destroyed that ecosystem BUT here's the thing, most lawns especially in suburban and urban areas are deserts. If they haven't been pilled over with fill and clay when the place was build have been leeched of essential minerals by decades of monoculture grass.

    It sounds like you are in the same situation I was in when I began. One of the reasons I turned my soil over so completely and added lots of compost. If you just add compost on top of that hard layer, then when your plants' roots get to it, they will have no way to penetrate and will just go laterally looking for food.

    Its worth getting in there at least to loosen things up.

    But its also true that just dumping store bought garden soil is going to give you less than stellar results for the first few years and you know what, that's ok. Modern hybrids are designed to give great results for amateur gardeners. Once you learn a bit more, you can branch out into heirloom plants and niche veggies for your particular situation. And you will learn more about soil, if you keep at it. What to add, and what kinds of mixes work best with different plants. Which like acid soils and which don't.

    Given your soil, I would stay away from root crops like potatoes and carrots. You might be able to get onions but I'd try bunching types first. Maybe some squash and other above ground veggie types, but be careful some of those are the type that really spreads out.

    Try a few things and experiment, don't try to even get much more than token additions to your pantry. Have fun.

    Also have a place for flowers. I don't know how many mornings when I worked on third shift I would come home, to go out and just sit in the garden and watch. Seeing the pollinators going from bloom to bloom. Being there when a humming bird showed up, or the robins who made a nest on the top of a downspout on the garage behind my yard for three years now. That is worth the effort of doing a garden all by itself.

    Let us know what you decide to do. Take loads of pictures and document. Right everything down because that will end up being very important down the road.

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  • Fri, Mar 27, 2020 - 6:46pm

    dtrammel

    Status: Silver Member

    Joined: May 03 2011

    Posts: 792

    2+

    Try This Resource Bethiew

    Hi Bethiew and welcome. Sounds like you have a good start. Let me point you to this post.

    https://peakprosperityfilelibrary.wordpress.com/2020/03/13/example-post-3/

    Its the collection of comments for the videos here on sanitation, PPE and self quarantine. Its a little out of date because I haven't had a chance to get it updated but luckily the self quarantine stuff was spoken of early in this crisis. That should give you some suggestions on how to proceed.

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  • Fri, Mar 27, 2020 - 6:54pm

    #73

    dtrammel

    Status: Silver Member

    Joined: May 03 2011

    Posts: 792

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    Sun or Shade, Go For Sun

    I am also wondering about the location of the beds.I had initially picked a spot that has sun from morning to night, but read that there should be a bit of shade in the afternoon.Is that right?I suppose it might depend on the type of vegetables I’ll be planting.

    You can always cut the amount of sun with a makeshift shade like a umbrella or just a flat reflector made of cardboard. What you can't do is ADD sunlight so I would plant where you can get the maximum sun and go for plants that like sun to plant.

    Its been my experience that what does a plant in isn't too much sunlight, its too little water. Water is the grease that keeps the engine of sunlight on track and spinning. One of the reasons I put that underground tube system in, was so that I could keep the ground at 6-9 inches moist while the sun cooked the surface and killed the weeds.

    Plus I've read anecdotally that surface watering can damage the plants either by burning (the droplets on leaves act as lenses and damage the leaves) and if watered in the evening, promote mold and other problems when the temperature cools down and the leaves are all moist over night.

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  • Fri, Mar 27, 2020 - 7:04pm

    #74

    dtrammel

    Status: Silver Member

    Joined: May 03 2011

    Posts: 792

    5+

    If You Can't Garden, Then Learn To Store Food

    I'm sure there are many who have read this thread and think "Wow, what am I gonna do, I got no place to plant something, not even a few pots, I'm screwed!"

    That's not true.

    There are going to be lots of people with extra veggies and produce this year. Not only that, Farmer's markets are out there too, selling their produce. If you can't grow your own, you can at least use what others grow to fill out your deep pantry and keep you family feed. And home grown or local farmer's produce is ten times better for you to eat. Better tasting and better nutritionally.

    Start hitting the thrift stores and garage sales now, look for one of those multilevel food dryers. People buy them, then don't use them and then donate or sell them for a few dollars.

    Drying food is an easy and economic way to add to your deep pantry. A store bought can of soup, with a big handful of dried vegetables can extend that soup and make it very tasty. Learn when things are in season, and look for times when they are on sale. Buy extra and dry it, bag it and put it away.

    Once you try drying, then consider learning how to can and preserve. It takes a little capital to buy the tools but again you can find them at thrift stores or garage sales for less.

    Not only canning, but the old art of pickling, not just cucumbers but a wide range of veggies can be pickled with little more than good jars and the right spice mix (plus a bit of heat on the stove).

    Even if you can't grow your own, you still have options to protect your family and weather hard times.

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  • Fri, Mar 27, 2020 - 8:32pm

    #75
    Jo Taylor

    Jo Taylor

    Status: Member

    Joined: Feb 07 2020

    Posts: 9

    New Zealand

    New Zealand should actually give a pretty accurate answer to which scenario is correct. All our cases have come to NZ recently, currently there is very little community transmission, mainly family or close contacts. Even though we have closed our border, NZer's are continuing to come home and many are testing positive (but they are hopefully all isolated?). Basically two weeks on from people first testing positive, we are now seeing hospitalizations.

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  • Fri, Mar 27, 2020 - 9:56pm

    #76
    kenwdelong

    kenwdelong

    Status: Member

    Joined: Dec 11 2018

    Posts: 3

    kenwdelong said:

    Can anyone point me to the video with the data on how long we think it can survive on various surfaces?  I've been looking for it and just can't find it.

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  • Fri, Mar 27, 2020 - 10:04pm

    sofistek

    Status: Platinum Member

    Joined: Oct 02 2008

    Posts: 712

    NZ Cases

    Just to clarify, not all of the cases are people who've arrived in the country recently. We do have some community transmission. But we should note that confirmed cases are only those that have been tested. There is a strict policy on testing where you need to meet some criteria, and those seem very narrow since I know of one person who seemed to tick a lot of boxes to get tested but wasn't allowed a test.

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  • Fri, Mar 27, 2020 - 10:53pm

    #78
    Downunder Bound

    Downunder Bound

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    Joined: Mar 13 2020

    Posts: 1

    Coronavirus: Why we do what we're told when our society is shut down

    New Zealanders were this week told of unprecedented restrictions on their lives for at least the next month. Jobs, livelihoods, and our physical and mental wellbeing will all suffer, yet the lockdown has been almost universally embraced. Why is that?

    https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/120627425/coronavirus-why-we-do-what-were-told-when-our-society-is-shut-down

    Chris - Look at all the face masks on people's faces!!!

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  • Sat, Mar 28, 2020 - 4:17am

    spiker

    spiker

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    Joined: Aug 04 2012

    Posts: 9

    Tell them

    I know someone with cancer and i have to protect them. Or give no cares to idiots. Both work.

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  • Sat, Mar 28, 2020 - 5:07am

    #80
    Mad_Bear

    Mad_Bear

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    Joined: Mar 07 2020

    Posts: 2

    2+

    Case Fatality Rate in Italy isnt changing

    These have the stats for the Italy cases from day 1 until presentYeah the CFR for resolved cases in Italy has been between 42 and 45% forever 2 weeks now

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  • Sat, Mar 28, 2020 - 5:22am

    #81
    Dutch Boomer

    Dutch Boomer

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    Joined: Feb 06 2020

    Posts: 101

    1+

    Dutch Boomer said:

    it can take a long long time before one's declared "recovered"

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  • Sat, Mar 28, 2020 - 5:35am

    Hladini

    Hladini

    Status: Member

    Joined: Dec 28 2011

    Posts: 185

    4+

    Garden Soil

    Hello VShelford!  Some tips for good garden soil:  Make compost tea using an aquarium aerator.  Whether you're making 5 gallons or 50 gallons,  fill the bucket 1/4 with rich compost, cow manure, bat guano, rotted leaves, etc., fill with water, then add some molassis or cane syrup.  1-2 tablespoons for 5 gallons and 1/4-1/2 cup for 50 gallons.  Last but not least, place the correct size aerator in the bucket and let bubble for 24 hours.  Use it immediately.  Can use full strength, but don't need to.  I dilute 1 part tea to 3 parts water.  If you add the sweetner, you can go another day before using.

    The plants love it.  It's sort of a probiotic for the soil. I use this once a week for the seedlings and once a month for the plants in the ground.

    A great way to build rich soil is the no till gardening method.  We weed whack or mow down the grass to the soil, then lay tape free cardboard, then lay 4-5 inches of soil, then mulch it in.  It's instantly ready to be planted, the top soil is not disturbed, you're adding organic material to the soil, and the worms LOVE the cardboard!  Mulching materials include leaf litter, grass clippings, wood mulch.

    There is a rich interview with the owners of Singing Frogs no till farm in Southern CA on the peakprosperity site.

    Happy Planting!

     

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  • Sat, Mar 28, 2020 - 5:53am

    #83

    dtrammel

    Status: Silver Member

    Joined: May 03 2011

    Posts: 792

    2+

    Evaluation A Mask Option

    Someone sent me a link to this company and their masks.

    https://store.envomask.com/envomask-n95-respirator-kit-p4.aspx

    At first I wasn't going to post on it. At $80 that pretty high on the economic ladder but I do own several of the 3M half face respirators using the canister or the pancake filters for extended use. Those were $50 with one set of filters, so $80 with 5 might be a reasonable price.

    The downside with the 3Ms are the filters attach with a plastic bayonet fitting. With this masks you could in theory make your own, possibly with the hepa vacuum cleaner filters some are using for inserts in DIY masks.

    I don't care for the ear hooks this mask uses though. They look uncomfortable for an extended use, though for dust situations you aren't worried about pulling the mask to the side from time to time. You'd probably have to cushion them somehow. I would prefer a full strap with detachable clip.

    Not sure how long these will stay in stock. I will say that I expect that masks, both the disposable paper ones and the rubber half masks will be showing up more and more in the next few weeks as everyone and their sister jumps into making and selling them. I hear even Hane's underwear factories are retooling.

    If the assumption that this first wave will tapper off but that we will get another heavier one this Fall are correct, then most of us just need to get through the next few months, before we see a period where we can resupply.

    Make you choice based on your personal situation.

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  • Sat, Mar 28, 2020 - 6:22am

    #84

    dtrammel

    Status: Silver Member

    Joined: May 03 2011

    Posts: 792

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    Is The Push To Reopen The Economy, The Beginning of the End of Capitalism?

    Many of the economic and social problems that most of us will admit are wrong with the way we do things, is because there is no viable alternative to system of vulture capitalism that we have now. I'm not opposed to a person making a fair value on their efforts but that can't be the end all, be all of society.

    The Logic Behind Sacrificing Old People for the Economy

    As Chris mentioned in the "Ask Anything" video, some young people are waking up to the fact there are alternatives and this crisis may have a sunny end to it, by breaking the stranglehold of the way things are and allowing something different to emerge.

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  • Sat, Mar 28, 2020 - 6:35am

    #85

    dtrammel

    Status: Silver Member

    Joined: May 03 2011

    Posts: 792

    2+

    Your Buying Chloroquine Has Consequences

    https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/tanyachen/kaiser-permanente-lupus-chloroquine

    A Woman With Lupus Said Her Health Care Provider Is Stopping Her Chloroquine Prescription And Thanked Her For The “Sacrifice”

    "The fact that they thanked me for my 'sacrifice' is disturbing," she told BuzzFeed News. "I never agreed to sacrifice my health and possibly my life and cannot believe that I am being forced to do so."

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  • Sat, Mar 28, 2020 - 6:58am

    #86

    dtrammel

    Status: Silver Member

    Joined: May 03 2011

    Posts: 792

    2+

    Possible Reinfections or Poor Testing?

    More information out of China.

    https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2020/03/27/822407626/mystery-in-wuhan-recovered-coronavirus-patients-test-negative-then-positive

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  • Sat, Mar 28, 2020 - 8:27am

    #87
    PhilH

    PhilH

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    Joined: May 24 2010

    Posts: 166

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    Garden Soil

    To jump start my raised beds 4'x8', I mixed

    • 2 large bags vermiculite
    • 2 large bags peat
    • 2 large bags compost

    spread the mix into the raised bed and rototilled it into the clayish poor quality soil.  Garden grew like gang busters.  Over the years, wife would take the chicken poop and add it to each garden throughout the winter.  Unfortunately due to health issues, she had to give her chickens up last fall 🙁

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  • Sat, Mar 28, 2020 - 8:31am

    robtompkins

    robtompkins

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    Joined: Aug 16 2012

    Posts: 14

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    Read and watch Prof. Richard Wolff for a practical alternative to Capitalism

    Prof. Richard Wolff, among others, has been promoting Worker Self Directed Enterprises as a practical, proven alternative to capitalist structured enterprises.  And it is important to know that the approach he is advocating does not involve the government mandating or any way forcing this change.  In my opinion, building up a large, alternative sector of the economy consisting of these WSDE's will only happen successfully if they are created/developed from the bottom up by people becoming aware of this alternative way of structuring a business/enterprise and finding others who agree with them.

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  • Sat, Mar 28, 2020 - 8:39am

    #89
    nordicjack

    nordicjack

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: Feb 03 2020

    Posts: 522

    Italy numbers are probably most acccurate

    Italy has done what I recommended here - testing the entire community to see exposure.

    Anyway, I am now thinking, scratch Germany , that is obviously flawed.  And when you see reports like this one:

    https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/nidhiprakash/coronavirus-update-dead-covid19-doctors-hospitals

    It is now apparent this is probably a magnitude off in reporting the dead.  This is the virus ( bioweapon ) that francis boyle spoke about.  Like he knew what it was and its fatality rate.. This without medical intervention is a 15% fatality disease..   Goodbye USA..  you will collapse now.  I dont mean economically.   4 turning is long passed. We are ready for the new.

    Edit:   The drs in LA county and NY have been ecouraged by officials NOT TO TEST - unless its going to change the course of treatment!.   I agree that you dont need to test someone obvious with the disease - we need to test the community .. it doesnt change or shouldnt change treatment.. However.  They should be allowed to make a clincial diagnosis and added to the "funny numbers"

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  • Sat, Mar 28, 2020 - 9:38am

    nordicjack

    nordicjack

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: Feb 03 2020

    Posts: 522

    sofis regarding lack of good numbers

    I agree, the numbers are a joke.  However, the between 1-2% fatality is way way off from what I am thinking now looking at the evidence.    I think its 10x this.  first, With exceptional treatment , I think this could be near 1% However, its not close to realistic.. Certainly not in the US medical system.   I think the Diamond princes does show its about 1-2 % though I know they dropped at least one death from the count.  But they were all hospitalized and treated before they could even get bad enough.  That will not happen with most.   It has to be higher this than this - and then what happens when there is no treatment at all?  That is already here in some places.  Italiy will show you what it means to sacrifice a person that can be saved because they have to.. The US is now making the same decisions.   This doesnt just affect old people. it affects both equally, they are artificially selecting the dead.  they did it in wuhan, they are doing it in italy, and now the US.  When the doctors says no , we are doing nothing for this old guy,  we need the bed and vent for the young guy.. your dead numbers are going to show it kills old people.. Because you made it kill the old people.

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  • Sat, Mar 28, 2020 - 9:47am

    #91

    dtrammel

    Status: Silver Member

    Joined: May 03 2011

    Posts: 792

    6+

    About Masks For All - Telling Comment

    https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/03/would-everyone-wearing-face-masks-help-us-slow-pandemic#

    Why is it that so many websites pushing the argument that masks are of use to the Masses, don't take user comments?

    Its telling the article above ends with this point:

    A key factor pushing health authorities to discourage mask wearing is the limited supply, says Elaine Shuo Feng, an epidemiologist and statistician at the University of Oxford, whose team last week published in The Lancet a comparison of various health authorities’ face mask recommendations.

    For that reason, Mark Loeb, a microbiologist and infectious disease physician at McMaster University, says, “I do not think that it is sound public health policy for people to be going out and purchasing medical masks and N95 respirators and wearing them out on the street.”

    Really, really stupid. I don't think it is sound public health policy to have people walking around without masks, when we are doing very little testing to identify asymptomatic spreaders.

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  • Sat, Mar 28, 2020 - 9:55am

    ao

    ao

    Status: Platinum Member

    Joined: Feb 04 2009

    Posts: 1242

    1+

    dtrammel, they don't ask for your consent anymore, they take it

    That's a horrendous situation.  I would think there is legal recourse there, even in the face of a national emergency.

    This situation is analogous to when corporations call you on the phone and start out by saying, "This is Amelia Blowhard with Screwyouover Corporation calling on a recorded line ...".  I immediately interrupt them and say.  "Telling me that you're calling on a recording line is not asking for my consent.  Are you asking me for my consent because I haven't granted it yet and legally, you're on shaky ground recording me without my consent."  It typically throws them off and they often plead they're just doing their job.  I respond, will they do anything their employer tells them to do, even if it is illegalor?  I just want them to think and become a little less of a mindless zombie robot employee citizen.

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  • Sat, Mar 28, 2020 - 10:12am

    #93

    dtrammel

    Status: Silver Member

    Joined: May 03 2011

    Posts: 792

    2+

    He Who Has Deep Pockets and a Team Of Lawyers makes the Rules.

    LOL, I do love screwing with telemarketers and people who call me unannounced. I sometimes try and see just how long I can keep them on the line. I figure the longer they are providing me with entertainment, the less time they have to bother other people.

    You know I just realized, since this has all started happening I've received very little robocalls. Wonder why?

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  • Sat, Mar 28, 2020 - 10:17am

    ao

    ao

    Status: Platinum Member

    Joined: Feb 04 2009

    Posts: 1242

    1+

    dtrammel, LOL

    I do the same thing.  Maybe your robocallers shifted their target zone because I'm still getting a lot of them.  It always mystifies me how they think using a fake number on Caller ID will somehow get me to trust them.  Not much grey matter there, lol.

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  • Sat, Mar 28, 2020 - 11:49am

    #95
    schwedischdemokratischrepublik

    schwedischdemokratischrepublik

    Status: Member

    Joined: Mar 12 2020

    Posts: 33

    1+

    Honey badger virus learns how to infect cats

    Now, it seems, our cats are in danger as well. Cat started showing symptoms (vomiting, breathing problems) a week after its owner and a veterinarian has diagnosed it with HB-19. This virus seems to be able to adapt very fast to new hosts and there is no telling what other ways it will change.

    https://www.brusselstimes.com/all-news/belgium-all-news/103003/coronavirus-belgian-woman-infected-her-cat/

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  • Sat, Mar 28, 2020 - 1:33pm

    #96
    westcoastjan

    westcoastjan

    Status: Silver Member

    Joined: Jun 04 2012

    Posts: 429

    4+

    Words of wisdom from David Suzuki

    In this moment of crisis, we should be asking what an economy is for, whether there are limits, how much is enough and whether we are happier with all this stuff.

    https://www.cbc.ca/documentaries/the-nature-of-things/the-covid-19-pandemic-may-be-an-opportunity-to-transform-the-way-we-live-1.5512241

    I can only hope that the millions who are in isolation and quarantine will use this time  to reflect on the purpose of life and what is truly meaningful, and resolve to find a new life balance that is compatible with finite resources within our finite Earth.

    Jan

    Jan

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  • Sat, Mar 28, 2020 - 2:28pm

    westcoastdog

    westcoastdog

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: Feb 04 2020

    Posts: 58

    Worst mistake

    https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/03/not-wearing-masks-protect-against-coronavirus-big-mistake-top-chinese-scientist-says

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  • Sat, Mar 28, 2020 - 2:30pm

    #98

    sofistek

    Status: Platinum Member

    Joined: Oct 02 2008

    Posts: 712

    1+

    Exit Strategies?

    So far, I don't recall any country which has imposed strict lockdown measures describing an exit strategy. If the aim is to flatten the curve, strict measures would have to be imposed until herd immunity is achieved, until an effective vaccine is available or until a quick effective treatment is found. Assuming that the virus doesn't mutate into a relatively benign form and that humans remain as susceptible to the virus as now, relaxation of restriction would simple shift the curve to the right, rather than flatten it.

    Of course, Chris's idea of mandating that everyone has to wear a mask would also slow the spread and flatten the curve. But no leader seems to be positing that idea other than in the Czech Republic, though there are also other restrictions there and cases don't appear to have slowed (not sure of that, though).

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  • Sat, Mar 28, 2020 - 3:58pm

    drbrucedale

    drbrucedale

    Status: Member

    Joined: Sep 06 2009

    Posts: 103

    Who Said "Never Let a Good Crisis Go to Waste"

    As far as I know, this quote is due to Rahm Emanuel, Chief of Staff to President Obama from 2009-2010, and later Mayor of Chicago. Now you know.  Are you surprised at the source?  🙂

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  • Sat, Mar 28, 2020 - 5:39pm

    sofistek

    Status: Platinum Member

    Joined: Oct 02 2008

    Posts: 712

    Masks and Czechia

    Does anyone have information about the efficacy of the order, in the Czech Republic, for everyone to wear masks? Maybe it's too early to tell but it would be a pointer for other countries.

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  • Sun, Mar 29, 2020 - 12:23am

    Sparky1

    Sparky1

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: Jul 21 2016

    Posts: 734

    1+

    AKGranny, US is buying Covid test kits from South Korea

    Hi Granny,  Sorry I missed your post and request until a little while ago.

    Yes, the rumor is true and may have been already widely reported, but I just missed it. Here's are two articles with details:

    U.S. Seeks Coronavirus Tests From South Korea

    https://www.kpbs.org/news/2020/mar/24/us-seeks-medical-equipment-possibly-including/

    President Trump promised to get FDA approval for these tests within a day.

    LA Purchases 20K Coronavirus Test Kits From South Korean Company

    $1.24M for 20,000 kits initially, then 100,000 kits per week (number of weeks not reported)

    https://losangeles.cbslocal.com/2020/03/24/la-purchases-20k-coronavirus-test-kits-from-south-korean-company/

     

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  • Sun, Mar 29, 2020 - 1:41am

    rushcard1

    rushcard1

    Status: Member

    Joined: Mar 23 2020

    Posts: 33

    He Who Has Deep Pockets and a Team Of Lawyers makes the Rules.

    Gee, you must have more expendable time and tons more patience on robo-callers than I do.  I have two responses which pop up upon such a call.  Mostly I just hang up on them, but if I am doing something important and they have interrupted me, my second language pops up.  I am bilingual as I speak English and Sailor.  Usually they hang up before I finish my "sailor" language comments, but I try to get an earful in as quickly as possible -- I have noticed that I get fewer such calls, but I have to first make sure it is not simply an unrecognized number before I freak out on them.

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  • Sun, Mar 29, 2020 - 2:12am

    albacore

    albacore

    Status: Member

    Joined: Jul 20 2014

    Posts: 50

    2+

    Article lifts lid on Scenario B PR campaign..

    Nafeez Ahmed has done some great digging on the murky PR campaign behind Scenario B, and some good debunking material too.
    For instance, their model assumes only one in a thousand infected need hospitalisation. Yet more than one in a thousand of Lombardy’s (Italy) entire population has currently been hospitalised, and they’re not done yet!

    The Coronavirus Crisis: Oxford Model Touting ‘Herd Immunity’ was Promoted by PR Agency Tied to Ministry of Defence and Nudge Unit

    Matt

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