• Blog

    Coronavirus: Public Panic & Market Carnage

    The masses have just reached the panic stage
    by Adam Taggart

    Monday, March 16, 2020, 3:59 PM

The lockdowns predicted in yesterday’s video update are already starting to happen.

Italy, Spain, New Zealand, Northern Ireland, Israel and a growing number of countries are locking down their borders and tightening restrictions on movement.

More and more US states & cities are banning public gatherings and forcing closure of non-essential businesses. Rumors of a coming national curfew circulated this morning.

Meanwhile, grocery and pharmacy shelves are being stripped bare . Even the slow-movers are now panicking.

A similar panic has gripped investors. The stock market is experiencing a historically vicious sell-off — after falling 24% by the end of last week, the Dow is down another 13%(!!) today.

So far, no matter what the Federal Reserve and world government’s have pledged, the market hasn’t been convinced it will be enough.It’s a global fire sale; investors want the safety of cash. And they’re selling everything to get it.Such is the psychology of crowds. When the herd is spooked a stampede ensues.

And this is with less than 4 thousand confirmed coronavirus cases in the US. How will the herd react when that number is 4 million?

When the panic is raging like this, narrow your focus on doing what it takes to keep yourself and your family safe. In the big picture, that’s all that truly matters.

And if you haven’t read them yet, the coronavirus preparation megathreads available for free on PeakProsperity.com are a great resource for preparing for lockdown.

If you’re one of the many new readers here on Peak Prosperity, be sure you’re up-to-date on developments with the coronavirus. All of our latest covid-19 video updates, podcasts and articles can be accessed here for free.

And here’s a brief list of the more recent material that Chris and I have published for our premium subscribers, to give you a sense of what’s behind the paywall (free executive summary, enrollment required for full access)

Related content
» More

146 Comments

  • Mon, Mar 16, 2020 - 4:22pm

    #1
    drkate

    drkate

    Status: Member

    Joined: Mar 16 2020

    Posts: 1

    Masks

    I am a visiting nurse on the South Shore of Boston. We have received no direction from the company on how to keep ourselves and our patients safe. I took it upon myself to send out a group text trying to educate based on what I have learned from Chris, number one suggestion was Wear a Mask! Finally today we were enlightened. We received this text from our boss:

    “Just listened to Webinar from Mass Gov relating to home care. The information that has been passed out over the past week (stay home if you’re sick)  by our agency is right on target. There is a state wide shortage of mask, gloves, gowns. Masks should be offered to the client if they are coughing. This will eliminate spread of germs from client. It is more beneficial for the person coughing to wear the mask than for a nurse to wear a mask thinking they are protecting them self.”

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Mon, Mar 16, 2020 - 4:30pm

    #2

    dtrammel

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: May 03 2011

    Posts: 698

    1+

    Megathreads Updated to 3/9, Now Available Online

    And if you haven’t read them yet, the coronavirus preparation megathreads available for free on PeakProsperity.com are a great resource for preparing for lockdown:

    1. Coronavirus: Sanitation, PPE and Self Quarantine Megathread
    2. Coronavirus: Medicinals, Herbals and Supplements Megathread
    3. Coronavirus: Home Prep, Deep Pantry & Gardening Megathread

    The Megathreads, which are a collection of all the comments on those subjects, from the videos, blog posts and articles Chris and Adam have done since 1/23 have been updated to include those of 3/9.

    They have been moved to their own site, and can be found here:

    Peak Prosperity Covid19 Library of Files

    In addition, I have begun to do subject specific compilations. There are 4 so far, with more to follow, and can be found if you click the Blog link on that site.

    You may request a download of these three files by sending me a PM on this site. Please include your email.

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Mon, Mar 16, 2020 - 5:18pm

    #3
    emg13

    emg13

    Status: Member

    Joined: Mar 16 2020

    Posts: 3

    Philippines: Luzon island in total lockdown.

    Here in the Philippines, we are in Enhanced Community Quarantine (Total Lock down) the whole Island of Luzon. Only Health workers, police, military, Food Delivery are allowed to pass through check points. Mass Public transportation is suspended. People are advised to stay at home.

    The government’s cry is Flatten the curve.

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Mon, Mar 16, 2020 - 5:28pm

    #4

    Waterdog14

    Status: Member

    Joined: Jan 18 2014

    Posts: 138

    My yoga teacher's report on having SARS-COV-2 coronavirus (and no test)

    Here is what my Iyengar yoga teacher posted about having the coronavirus.  She and her husband are in their early to mid-60’s.  He works in a ski shop in one of our  Colorado ski areas (epicenter of a local cluster).

    So I don’t usually post private things online but I think this might be helpful. Husband started feeling a little sick on Friday with a sinus cold and decided not to go to work on the mountain.  They then closed the ski area on Saturday, he was not the only worker to call in sick. I was feeling fine on Sunday morning then all of a sudden around eleven I felt like I was hit by a bus. I had chills, slight cough, slight fever and aches. Then I got a really bad headache, I had a night from hell! I called the call center and they recommended I get tested for the virus today. They tested me for the flu to rule that out and it came back negative, so they said to assume we both have the virus. They did not then test for the virus since they are short on tests. They recommended staying home for 2 weeks and told me if I get any shortness of breath to call my doctor and or go to the ER. I feel a little better today, the head ache is gone. I am relatively healthy so I’m sure I’ll be ok but I can now understand why they are telling people over sixty to stay home. We are all in this together so we need to show support and love. Stay home, read a good book, watch Netflix, do yoga, take walks in the fresh air. It seems like the young people will be ok, but they can pass the virus even if they don’t have symptoms. 

    There are not enough [email protected]#$% test kits!  The US statistics are absolutely unreliable.  Grrrrrrrr!!!!

    The “good” news is that our county is shut down.  All ski areas are closed.  University and public schools are closed.  All hotels & motels are in mandatory closure.  Libraries, child-care centers, rec centers, hockey rink, public transportation — all closed.  The county released a public health order prohibiting groups of 10 or more from gathering in public spaces including bars and restaurants (so most of them have closed).   We have 8 confirmed cases in a county with a population of about 17,000 humans.  That equates to 470 cases per million.    And we’re not adequately testing, so the numbers are probably MUCH higher.

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Mon, Mar 16, 2020 - 5:32pm

    #5

    westcoastjan

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: Jun 04 2012

    Posts: 325

    Meanwhile, covert behind the scenes shit - what a surprise...

    US Intel Agencies Played Unsettling Role in Classified and “9/11-like” Coronavirus Response Plan

     

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Mon, Mar 16, 2020 - 5:55pm

    #6

    Adam Taggart

    Status: Platinum Member

    Joined: May 25 2009

    Posts: 3169

    Costco line

    A lot of people have sent us thanks that these daily updates helped them recognize the magnitude of the coronavirus threat over a month ago and thus prepare early.

    Perhaps few visuals demonstrate the value of taking that early action better than this:

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Mon, Mar 16, 2020 - 6:01pm

    #7
    kunga

    kunga

    Status: Member

    Joined: Feb 26 2017

    Posts: 251

    1+

    USA doubling time

    Last Tuesday, 03/10,  1000+ cases confirmed.  Friday, 03/13. 2000+.  Today, Monday, 03/16 , 4,000+.  So even with poor testing, I would say doubling time about three days.

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Mon, Mar 16, 2020 - 6:01pm

    #8
    nordicjack

    nordicjack

    Status: Member

    Joined: Feb 03 2020

    Posts: 329

    First human trials

    So human trials started for a vaccine candidate.  I am sure they are not really informed -while getting paid just 100$ per clinic visit.  Ha ha.

    You won’t catch me lining up for that shot/.  These people are real fools.

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Mon, Mar 16, 2020 - 6:02pm

    Reply to #
    schwedischdemokratischrepublik

    schwedischdemokratischrepublik

    Status: Member

    Joined: Mar 12 2020

    Posts: 17

    RE: Sweden...*sigh*

    I subtitled a video where he says these things. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2Q7jE7gRQPA

    This man seems to be living in a theoretical, ideological fantasy world and is unaware of and/or rejects everything else. He says he follows the “consensus” of “heavy-weight” British scientists but is unaware of basic, and crucial, facts such as the fact that the virus spreads well asymptomatically.
    He also says it is better to implement measures to arrest the spread later, when more people are infected, because then it has greater effect. That is likely *technically* true but what does that matter when our healthcare system is overloaded well before that and people are mass-dying needlessly.

    More and more is reveiled about how woefully unprepared our nation is. In 1993 we had thousands of ventilators available, now we have less than 600. We used to have sophisticated portable military hospitals, now we have none of that. Hospitals are already lacking protective equipment and, likely, we have a lack of testing supplies. Our governments in recent years have thought we don’t need that stuff any longer since they think the EU will pick up the slack. But with the same crisis hitting all of the EU and everyone needing all the stuff they have, deliveries have been stopped.

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Mon, Mar 16, 2020 - 6:08pm

    #9
    cicerone

    cicerone

    Status: Member

    Joined: Sep 22 2019

    Posts: 12

    SF Bay Area Lockdown

    Full lockdown is here for us: https://www.sfchronicle.com/local-politics/article/Bay-Area-must-shelter-in-place-Only-15135014.php

    Starts at midnight tonight. Our CEO called an emergency meeting around 2pm when the “shelter in place” order happened and gave those of us who don’t have 3 weeks food/water/tp permission to leave and battle the hordes at Whole Foods. I would say about half of our small company are young apartment dwellers that usually eat out or order from Instacart and they immediately left the call (we’re all remote already of course), returning later with dramatic videos, some of which you’ll probably see on the news.

    I don’t have to tell anyone here, but if your state isn’t already in lockdown, take advantage of the calm before the storm to get what you need.

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Mon, Mar 16, 2020 - 6:33pm

    #10
    Desogames

    Desogames

    Status: Member

    Joined: Feb 03 2020

    Posts: 210

    EU Bond market creaking

    No need to make this post long. This one’s pretty obvious. No way in hell do i trust the greek 10 year right now; but i wanted to see if the periphery was disconnecting from the EU’s “core” (and the UK cause why not)

    Yep. Betcha didn’t expect that. I didn’t either. Seems we have another problem on our hands sometime these next 2 weeks, and maybe even as early as tomorrow.

    Wish we could keep it virus central but the virus seriously isn’t the biggest oncoming problem anymore. The authorities are at least starting to take that seriously but the above is a much bigger problem if that gets out of hand. Which honestly it’s looking like it will because that greek line is WAY too steep. Greece is the bellweather for the EU bond market and it’s not looking good.

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Mon, Mar 16, 2020 - 6:37pm

    #11

    AKGrannyWGrit

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: Feb 06 2011

    Posts: 846

    Here Is A Company That Still Does’t Get It

    Charter Communications In Denver –  where there are “confirmed cases”!

    Staff angered as Charter prohibits working from home despite spread of coronavirus

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Mon, Mar 16, 2020 - 6:40pm

    #12

    westcoastjan

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: Jun 04 2012

    Posts: 325

    A few thoughts

    Agree with Granny from the last thread – for the sake of simplicity and finding things or following comment threads, we need to split virus/honey badger related discussions from the finance/economic/PM discussions. PP site admin – what can we do to facilitate this? Thx!

    @Shimz re your comment on the previous thread:

    The rich western healthcare systems are “lean and mean”, normally operating at over 95% capacity. Efficiency is good in predictable times, it’s not good for meeting the unexpected.

    It struck me that this parallels what Hussman was saying about the markets being overvalued because of having no risk built into them. The healthcare systems are the same – operating on narrow margins and tightly managed for efficiency with virtually no room for risk or flexible capacity responses – at least not without far reaching implications. Case point: today BC announced that thousands of elective surgeries are being cancelled to free up beds for the expected ‘boom’ (my word). Like the economy, you don’t just stop doing things on a dime and expect to be able to resume on a dime later on. It just does not work that way. Also, BC just cancelled all non-essential dental services due to that recent big dental conference in Vancouver – wow. A number of positive virus cases have been traced to that conference. That is likely millions of appointment cancellations… the scheduling logistics/planning for all of the above are simply mind-boggling, not to mention the impacts on staffing.

    Non-essential dental services paused after COVID-19 cases linked to Vancouver dental conference

    And still, people are largely not getting it, and still carrying on as if this is not a big deal, evidence all over the place. The one phrase I have not seen Chris use yet in his videos (I could be mistaken but I do not think so) is ‘social contract‘. As a member of society people are bound by a social contract that provides a framework for behaviours. Is not adhering to the social contract merely a slow adjustment response? Is it ignorance? Stupidity? Stubborn resistance? I don’t know, and I don’t get it either.

    Sadly, we have for a long, long time now seen that social contract dishonoured by our so called leaders, politically and financially. Party affiliation does not matter. They are all the same. The bail outs, the financialization, the money printing, the crony and disaster capitalism…. So when your average Joe and Jane see all this lying, cheating and lack of accountability or consequences for leaders is it any wonder they don’t feel like the rules matter. Selling sanitizer on Ebay for a profit – who TF cares?!? What’s the big deal?!?

    We have lost our way. Big time. I am though heartened by all the good things I see happening, the many people caring, such as Chris, Adam & team, as well as all of you here who contribute. I am disheartened by the gaping tears in the social fabric to the point so many have forgotten what goes into being a good and decent human being.

    We ARE all one – the virus is proving that. For all of our sakes I hope people start buying that meme sooner rather than later.

    Jan

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Mon, Mar 16, 2020 - 6:46pm

    #13

    AKGrannyWGrit

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: Feb 06 2011

    Posts: 846

    Holy Cow Charter Communications Fired The Guy - Post # 12

    Hours later, he was no longer an employee.

    Just a few minutes after Wheeler sent the email, he was summoned to a vice president’s office to a conference call with human resources. In a call with TechCrunch, Wheeler said his email was described as “irresponsible” and “inciting fear.” He said it was hard to understand why Charter had not implemented a work-from-home policy after the coronavirus outbreak was upgraded to a pandemic.

    Wow, lets punish people who question safety and peoples wellbeing.

    Sounds like the Doctors in China who tried to sound the alarm.  Maybe profit is more important than people?

     

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Mon, Mar 16, 2020 - 6:48pm

    #14

    sofistek

    Status: Platinum Member

    Joined: Oct 02 2008

    Posts: 609

    China data bad?

    Chris, you mentioned that you’d give us some anecdotal data around why you think the China data is bad, but I don’t think you did. I agree that it seems unlikely but they have been in lockdown for some time, so maybe the data is right? In any case, it will be interesting to see how those numbers change once they do seriously try to restart the economy there.

    Tony

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Mon, Mar 16, 2020 - 7:02pm

    #15

    suziegruber

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: Dec 03 2008

    Posts: 180

    Are You Kidding Me: Oregon Edition

    Oregon Police Ask People To Stop Calling Because They Ran Out of Toilet Paper

    Talk about lack of emotional resilience…….

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Mon, Mar 16, 2020 - 7:13pm

    #16
    Chris Martenson

    Chris Martenson

    Status: Platinum Member

    Joined: Jun 07 2007

    Posts: 5031

    Anecdotal Evidence of China's Troubles

    Sofistek – that’s right I did forget to include it.

    Here’s what I had found:

    The idea here is that as soon as you lift the lockdown, that pesky badger virus comes roaring back out.  I bet we see that in other places too.

     

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Mon, Mar 16, 2020 - 7:20pm

    #17
    aggrivated

    aggrivated

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: Sep 22 2010

    Posts: 468

    National lockdown predictor

    According to a friend whose daughter serves in a Pacific Island the whole Peace Corps has been ordered home by the end of the week. Are we indeed preparing for a New Zealand style border shuttering and national internal lock down?  I’m sure the public health powers have a master plan based on a very short time line.

    Our local response started out like that of St Louis in 1918. After one reported case, the schools were closed, courts closed, employees told to work from home. The local powers fizzled out dealing with restaurants and smaller businesses. They are leaving that to the national powers. Apparently lots of restaurant owners and employees must vote locally.

    Even the American Dental Association put out a timidly worded directive today advising practitioners to consider “postponing elective procedures for the next three weeks and concentrate on emergency dental care.” Loads of room for interpreting that based on your debt load.

    I sense Draconian moves ahead. Hatches battened, belts buckled, tanks full, and not to forget the new national currency–toilet paper.

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Mon, Mar 16, 2020 - 7:23pm

    #18
    MayS

    MayS

    Status: Member

    Joined: Mar 17 2020

    Posts: 4

    I liked his take on this, though I think he meant "control group".

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Mon, Mar 16, 2020 - 7:23pm

    #19
    aggrivated

    aggrivated

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: Sep 22 2010

    Posts: 468

    and one more thing

    The Peace Corps is bringing their people home on commercial airlines. No chance of catching anything on that trip. This couldn’t be any worse than crossing the Atlantic in the Mayflower.

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Mon, Mar 16, 2020 - 7:30pm

    #20
    nedyne

    nedyne

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: Jan 14 2012

    Posts: 68

    N95 that doesn't fit small face

    Now that cases are exploding in my country I convinced my girlfriend that she needs to wear an N95 in public, and she agreed reluctantly. Problem is, when she tried the 3M 8511’s that I bought, it turns out that the mask is way bigger than her face. There’s no way to get a tight seal on it. Darn! I knew mistakes would be made but I still wasn’t ready for this. Now N95s cost 10x the usual and you can only source them from untrustworthy sellers.

    I don’t know why 3M only has one size for valved N95 if they don’t fit all face sizes. Lesson learned: field-test all your critical preps. (I had tried the N95’s on me but not her).

    We also have a 3M small half face mask, and that one fits like a glove, but we’re orders of magnitude of cases away from the point where she can be coersed to wear one in public.

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Mon, Mar 16, 2020 - 7:34pm

    #21
    Sparky1

    Sparky1

    Status: Member

    Joined: Jul 21 2016

    Posts: 586

    ALERT: Military recalled for US national 14-day lockdown by Friday 3/20

    Two other PP members recently posted on information they received re: US military being recalled to their billets by today, 3/16.  I put out feelers for information here on this site and informally through friends/family.

    Please Note  The following  information has not been substantiated through written or first-hand report, but passed on from a friend’s friend in the military who was apparently among those receiving the recall notice. The individuals reporting and the information reported seem credible to me:

    Either tomorrow or Wednesday, the President is to announce a 14-day national lockdown in an attempt to slow the spread of coronavirus. This lockdown will become effective this coming Friday, 3/20. 

    I don’t have information regarding movement of “essential personnel” or businesses that may be exempt from the restrictions; nor do I have information re: the role of the military and any possible compliance or enforcement mechanisms.

    Any additional information or insights into this from the PP tribe?

    Thanks, all.  Stay safe!!

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Mon, Mar 16, 2020 - 7:36pm

    Reply to #20
    TurquoiseRose

    TurquoiseRose

    Status: Member

    Joined: Feb 26 2020

    Posts: 65

    Tape

    Perhaps try a cloth tape or even paper tape like the use for first aid/wounds to keep the seal.  It may be uncomfortable to remove but if she doesn’t have to work all day in the mask- that may work.

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Mon, Mar 16, 2020 - 7:41pm

    Reply to #20

    dtrammel

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: May 03 2011

    Posts: 698

    Looking Scary or Being Safe, Know What I'd Pick

    I’d have her wear the half mask. BTW did you manage to get any of the smaller pancake type filters for those?

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Mon, Mar 16, 2020 - 7:42pm

    #22

    AKGrannyWGrit

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: Feb 06 2011

    Posts: 846

    Thanks Suzy

    My husband got a chuckle from your post!

    Love the humor!

    Chucklen Granny

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Mon, Mar 16, 2020 - 7:50pm

    Reply to #4
    Chris Martenson

    Chris Martenson

    Status: Platinum Member

    Joined: Jun 07 2007

    Posts: 5031

    Re: Your Yoga Teacher

    Here is what my Iyengar yoga teacher posted about having the coronavirus.  She and her husband are in their early to mid-60’s.  He works in a ski shop in one of our  Colorado ski areas (epicenter of a local cluster).

    Waterdog – as you are probably aware, and may want to relate to them, is that the second week of illness is when the badger virus strikes.  If it’s going to.

    Most cases resolve, but the ones that don’t have a bi-phasic progression:

    No, it is not only the elderly or people who already have a medical problem who fall victim to the new coronavirus. Emergency doctor Ignace Demeyer warns about this. “We see people with a blank medical history who are very ill.” It is also not just about older generations. “We have had very few older people inside so far,” says Dr. Demeyer. “We now have people between the ages of 30 and 50 coming in.”

    “They all have the same complaints,” says Dr. Demeyer. “They have been sick for a week, stayed home with the flu. The flu attack is over, they think. They feel fine for two days. And then they report with complaints of a dry cough and shortness of breath. When we then have their oxygen saturation (level of oxygen in our blood, ed.), we see that they have very low oxygen saturation for their age. “

    At that time, a clear alarm goes off to the doctors that it concerns problem patients, but people do not always realize it because they do not feel very ill at the time. “They just walk in, but they are terribly affected by the virus.” Emergency doctor Demeyer also shows scans of the lungs of such a corona patient. “The images we took yesterday are nothing short of terrifying.

    (Source)

    From what I’ve gathered so far, somewhere around day 8 of symptom onset is where the trouble begins.  Plus or minus many days of course.

    At any rate, just tell here to keep on the lookout for the shortness of breath and dry cough thing.  Having an O2 pulsemeter would be mighty handy as well.

     

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Mon, Mar 16, 2020 - 7:55pm

    Reply to #17
    Sparky1

    Sparky1

    Status: Member

    Joined: Jul 21 2016

    Posts: 586

    Aggrivated, the Peace Corps too?

    That comports with the information I posted re: military recall and anticipated 14-day national lockdown later this week. Will they have this under control in 14 days?? I doubt it. Once implemented, the lockdown may well be extended. What is the anticipated role of the military and Peace Corps in this lockdown? Are they anticipating civil unrest? Are they helping with logistics, building temporary hospitals, or with patient care?

    I can appreciate the need for a lockdown to slow this pandemic, but I’m concerned about how this will actually play out (“soft”/voluntary; or “hard”/enforced). Then there’s that pesky erosion or suspension of civil rights…. Such a slippery slope.

    It might have been so much easier and less costly (in terms of lives, economy, rights) to have acted to contain this virus in early January when the feds and “health” officials knew about it.  Having royally screwed this up, now draconian measures are necessary with the potential for unintended or opportunistic consequences.

    This looks like a lose-lose situation to me.

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Mon, Mar 16, 2020 - 8:25pm

    Reply to #20
    nedyne

    nedyne

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: Jan 14 2012

    Posts: 68

    Re: Looking Scary or Being Safe, Know What I'd Pick

    Yeah I wouldn’t hesitate to wear a half face mask, but she’s ready to face almost any risk to avoid looking weird. No, I have the round 2097 P100 filters I think. Good enough.

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Mon, Mar 16, 2020 - 8:35pm

    #23

    AKGrannyWGrit

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: Feb 06 2011

    Posts: 846

    Ideas - How To Help Those In Need?

    The Municipality I live in is doing a lot to help the homeless during this Pandemic.  Our current homeless shelter is crowded so provisions have been made to open a new shelter where people will be able to sleep 6’ apart.  Many churches offer assistance but volunteers are often elderly and the CDC suggests those over 60 would be at a higher risk.  Logistics are a challenge.  However, There is a lot going on behind the scenes to help those in need.

    When at the grocery store everyone is asked if they would like to donate a dollar or a few to help feed locals in need.

    What is being done in your community to help those in need?  How can we help – from a distance? Ideas.

    AKGrannyWGrit

     

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Mon, Mar 16, 2020 - 8:37pm

    #24

    dtrammel

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: May 03 2011

    Posts: 698

    Get An Oximeter Everyone At Risk

    If you are in a risk group, please get an oximeter. Its under about $25 and it can tell what the oxygen level in your blood is. Blood O2 under about 90-92 is a big indicator you are in trouble.

    They look to be in stock and available for delivery by the weekend.

    https://www.amazon.com/s?k=oximeter+finger+with+pulse&crid=3TQASSGJO2AG7&sprefix=oximet%2Caps%2C176&ref=nb_sb_ss_i_3_6

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Mon, Mar 16, 2020 - 8:42pm

    Reply to #20

    dtrammel

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: May 03 2011

    Posts: 698

    That's them, good filter

    Yeah I wouldn’t hesitate to wear a half face mask, but she’s ready to face almost any risk to avoid looking weird. No, I have the round 2097 P100 filters I think. Good enough.

    That’s the ones I’ve been calling “pancake filters” cause they are flat and round lol. I have two people in my group that are small framed, and the N95s are too big. I got them both half masks and filters.

    Sparky1 actually spoke to the 3M rep and they say those are better than a N95. If you want, make up a small sign that says “I have cancer”. If anyone gives your wife the stink eye for her ppe, just have her hold it up. Shame them the frak up quick.

    Giving them the finger works too.

    ADDED: Just saw your wife worries about looking weird. LOL, go get a clown wig and wear it the first time out. Everyone will be looking at you not her. It will get her over her shyness.

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Mon, Mar 16, 2020 - 11:38pm

    #25
    Grayman

    Grayman

    Status: Member

    Joined: Feb 11 2020

    Posts: 27

    1+

    NZ government Covid19 support package and more...

    The NZ government announced the following elements today as part of their response to the pandemic.

    Extra spending of $12.1 billion for businesses, beneficiaries, pensioners and the health system.
    • $8.7 billion in support for businesses and jobs.
    • $2.8 billion for income support.
    • $500 million for health.

    • Wage subsidy for employers up to 12 weeks and up to $150,000 if they have suffered a 30 per cent decline in revenue compared to last year, $585 a week for full-timers, $350 a week for part-timers, available to all employers and self-employed.
    • Leave and self-isolation support for eight weeks for people with Covid-19, caring for people with it or people in self-isolation up to eight weeks at same rates as wage subsidy but not for those who can work from home.
    • Self-isolation payments not available to people who leave NZ after March 16 and return.
    • Permanent increase of $25 a week in main social welfare benefits after increases from indexation on April 1, likely to affect 350,000 low-income families.
    • One-off doubling of winter energy payment to $1400 for couples and $900 for singles, likely to affect 850,000 people.
    • Families with children not receiving a main benefit but are in work will no longer have to satisfy the work test of 20 hours a week for sole parents or 30 hours for couples, likely to benefit about 19,000 low-income families.
    • $50 million extra for GP and primary care and $20 million for videoconferencing consultations.
    • $32 million for extra intensive care capacity and equipment in hospitals.

    • $40 million for public health units mainly for contact tracing.
    • $100 million set aside to support work deployment.
    • Provisional tax threshold will lift from April 1 from $2500 to $5000 allowing an estimated 95,000 businesses to defer tax payments and possible waiving of interest on late payments.
    • Reinstatement of depreciation deductions for commercial and industrial buildings at an estimated cost of $2.1 billion to 2024.

    Plus it was announced that two recent travelers to NZ who refused to comply with the new rules requiring 14 days self isolation for EVERYONE arriving in NZ now… have been arrested and will be deported immediately.

    Well done, PM Jacinda Ardern.

    Cheers

    Grayman

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Mon, Mar 16, 2020 - 11:41pm

    #26

    Pipyman

    Status: Member

    Joined: Apr 24 2011

    Posts: 85

    O2/pulse meter

    For those that don’t know, free apps are available on phones and I’ve compared one to the real thing; they seem to be very accurate…

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Tue, Mar 17, 2020 - 1:07am

    #27
    DaveDD

    DaveDD

    Status: Member

    Joined: Sep 08 2019

    Posts: 43

    Managers, not leaders

    I finally realized why we (citizens from almost all countries) are in this pickle. The vast majority of our ‘elite’ are managers, not leaders. Managers are the guardians of the status quo, they have to operate within a rather complex environment with a precarious power balance.  Postponing decisions is one way to ensure that compromises are reached, and unnecessary risks (in terms of loss of power) are avoided. Leaders on the other hand are not so much interested in the status quo, nor are they risk adverse.

    So, for example, this WHO clown is a manager. In his case it is even worse because his resume says that he is a scientist and politician. I’m a smart guy, but I can’t wrap my head around it: how can you be a fact lover and fact adverse at the same time?

    So, my conclusion is this: the HB19 virus makes it painfully visible that there are too many managers in leadership positions. Next time when I vote, I’ll take a more care in trying to take the leadership qualities into account.

    Take care!

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Tue, Mar 17, 2020 - 2:22am

    #28
    Jarethtitan

    Jarethtitan

    Status: Member

    Joined: Mar 17 2020

    Posts: 1

    Balancing acts

    Hi Chris great content, as always! I would very much like to have your view on the following:

    1. How are we able to get herd immunity on an economically sensitive time scale?

    1b. Where’s the line, or how can we find the line/balance, between the deaths caused by the honey badger and the life’s ruined/also deaths from the impact on the world social-economic paradigm, as we don’t want to be dying more from the “cure” than from the virus (trolley problem?! )?

    2. How sure are we that we can achieve herd immunity and need not be worried about the cytokine reactions (Spanish flu was deadlier the second time around, SARS vaccine reacted like this as well)

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Tue, Mar 17, 2020 - 2:29am

    Reply to #21
    yogmonster

    yogmonster

    Status: Member

    Joined: Apr 01 2013

    Posts: 40

    Thanks for the heads up Sparky

    Appreciate the fore warning.  At times like these you can’t always wait for peer reviewed info, before acting.

    Had a feeling there was a possibilty of this coming.

    Edit: Hopefully the military is just being called back for safety reasons. i.e. they don’t want them getting infected, and bringing it back, and infecting the whole base.  I personally don’t want to see our military in the streets, except in a parade.

    I posted this under one of Chris’s other videos, but don’t know how to find it again.

    Check out: The Model State Health Powers Act. Especially section VI

    James Corbett did a special update to one of his old podcast regarding it.  It’s much shorter than the original, and just goes over the state powers allowed during medical Marshall law.  I will try to post link here, but it usually sends people to the old one which is over an hour long.

    Edit: looks like if you click on the video version of podcast, it will take you to the new updated one. About 20 min long.

     

    Medical Martial Law

    3rd Edit:

    “On Sunday, federal officials began confronting what they said was a deliberate effort by a foreign entity to make Americans think the government was going to impose a nationwide quarantine. Agencies took coordinated action Sunday evening to assure Americans that the government was not planning to do that.”

    https://japantoday.com/category/world/a-somber-trump-urges-americans-to-follow-virus-guidelines

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Tue, Mar 17, 2020 - 3:18am

    #29
    shimz

    shimz

    Status: Member

    Joined: Mar 07 2020

    Posts: 47

    Sweden update

    I am trying to neither participate in any blind rage because I am scared, nor downplay the dangers and go about as usual. It’s really like trying to stand straight in a storm. As much as I am tempted to point fingers in different directions, I think it’s more useful to try and explain the underlying reasons, to the best of my knowledge.

    I feel Sweden did a slow start – at the same time, much of what has been done in other countries has not been possible under Swedish law, like government ordered school closures. There is no Martial Law. But a lot of work has been done and is being done to change laws and prepare for more drastic measures.

    One important reason not to implement draconian measures (closing “everything”) is avoiding a chaotic situation that will cripple the whole society including the health care system.

    I am not sure exactly why, but I don’t think we can test everyone. So we are testing mainly those in need of hospital care and health care workers. Others with symtoms are told to stay home and self treat like you would any normal influenza or common cold.

    Today it was announced that colleges and universities are switching to online courses, effective tomorrow. Many univerisites have already implemented it to a large degree.

    Shools for younger children and daycare centers may come in question later but is something that is not easily implemented under current law. If health care workers, firefighters and police officers have to stay home to take care of healthy children that is going to create another series of problems. Also schools for younger children rarely include travel – different from schools for older children.

    And about setting a limit for gatherings: It can be less dangerous for 20 teenagers to gather than for 10 elderly to gather. It can be more dangerous indoors that outdoors. People need to think for themselves. At least for now.

    Since Sunday, people above 70 are adviced to avoid all social contacts including shopping. Walks in the open air (avoiding others) or gardening is encouraged. Nursing homes and hospitals banned visitors a week ago.

    There are people thinking it’s less dangerous than the flu, there are people that are hoarding toilet paper and pasta, there are people believing in conspiracys, there are those trying to responsibly prepare. There are some that like to blame the government for everything under the sun, pandemic or not. Some are terrified, some doesn’t seem to be bothered at all, some are raging for more action. I believe most are scared but trying not to let it show. But in the midst of it all there is a sense of unity and solidarity and that we’re in this together.

    Trying to distingish the signal from the noice. What will happen? I don’t know.

     

    Update:  Our state epidemiologist explained today that there is not enough resources (counting PPE mostly, but also the workload of the HCWs) to test every one with common cold symtoms that wouldn’t need any treatment anyway. So focus is to test those that need hospital care and health care workers, trying to make sure that the virus won’t get a foothold in hospitals.

    Community spread is now in most regions.

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Tue, Mar 17, 2020 - 4:14am

    #30

    dtrammel

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: May 03 2011

    Posts: 698

    The Kind Of Leadership I Wish We Had In DC

    Ohio Gov. Mike DeWine’s coronavirus response has become a national guide to the crisis

    “The announcement was typical of the no-nonsense, high-fact way in which DeWine has delivered his daily dose of bad news. He frequently cites the advice of public health professionals. He doesn’t mention politics. He shows his concern about the impact of his choices, which he has acknowledged could be devastating for the economy. He sugarcoats nothing.

    “In a sense these were tough decisions, but in a sense they were not,” DeWine said in an interview. “This is life and death.”

    The governor’s ahead-of-the-curve response has won raves from public health experts and from politicians of both parties, who say DeWine’s reliance on medical advice and his unwillingness to put a sheen on the crisis’s damaging impact stands out — particularly when compared with the response from the Trump White House.

    “It’s a study in contrasts,” said Amy Fairchild, dean of public health at Ohio Stat University.”

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Tue, Mar 17, 2020 - 4:37am

    #31

    dtrammel

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: May 03 2011

    Posts: 698

    Finally Someone Telling The Truth About Masks

    Nice to see someone gets what Chris has been saying all along.

    Why Telling People They Don’t Need Masks Backfired

    “Given that there is indeed a mask shortage and that medical workers absolutely do need these masks more, what should the authorities have said? The full painful truth. Despite warnings from experts for decades, especially after the near miss of SARS, we still weren’t prepared for this pandemic, and we did not ramp up domestic production when we could, and now there’s a mask shortage — and that’s disastrous because our front line health care workers deserve the best protection. Besides, if they fall ill, we will all be doomed.”

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Tue, Mar 17, 2020 - 4:50am

    #32

    dtrammel

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: May 03 2011

    Posts: 698

    On The Efficacy Of DIY Masks - Study

    Testing the Efficacy of Homemade Masks: Would They Protect in an Influenza Pandemic?

    Interesting research, will have to read more. Tested a wide variety of materials.

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Tue, Mar 17, 2020 - 4:52am

    Reply to #6

    montani79

    Status: Member

    Joined: Jul 26 2012

    Posts: 18

    Suburban Cleveland Ohio Walmart was cleaned out of all canned goods, all water, most frozen foods, and most refrigerated products when I visited yesterday. I was the only one wearing gloves and mask. The woman two spots in front of me made a point of speaking loud enough so everyone could hear that “It amazes me how scared some people are, and that it’s ‘just the flu'”.  Guy behind me laughed when I changed gloves while retrieving my creditcard.  I hope for their sake I’m paranoid and they are right …….

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Tue, Mar 17, 2020 - 5:12am

    #33

    dtrammel

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: May 03 2011

    Posts: 698

    How About A Two Week Stock Market Close?

    Op-Ed: Coronavirus is restricting market efficiency — We need a two-week trading holiday

    The “””Markets””” are efficient. Have to tell Chris that. I thought the computer programs trading were doing exactly what they were programmed to. Anyone want to bet on a up bounce today at open?

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Tue, Mar 17, 2020 - 5:28am

    #34

    dtrammel

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: May 03 2011

    Posts: 698

    Covid19 Messing With The Wrong Guy Now

    Kristofer Hivju who played Tormund Giantsbane on Game of Thrones announced he had tested positive. Covid19 is messing with the wrong guy now. Its gonna get its butt kicked, lol.

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Tue, Mar 17, 2020 - 5:33am

    Reply to #17
    VTGothic

    VTGothic

    Status: Member

    Joined: Jan 05 2020

    Posts: 59

    Sparky1 wrote...

    Sparky1 wrote:
    What is the anticipated role of the military and Peace Corps in this lockdown? Are they anticipating civil unrest? Are they helping with logistics, building temporary hospitals, or with patient care?

    From watching this play out, from the cheap seats, since the major I know was called back to billet, my main impression is that the President wants to curb unnecessary travel and has the military and DoD contractors leading by example. He likely wants to get all Americans for whom the government is responsible back home where they are arguably “safer.” (And I do think it’s arguable.)

    It looks to me, from the press briefing yesterday where the president acknowledged his team had been talking “to all the governors” that morning, and from seeing the multiple governors acting similarly yesterday to close places of large gathering and encourage self-isolation, that a decision was reached and conveyed that these requests/orders would be received better if they came from each state’s leadership than if they issued from the federal level. (I suspect that’s true. It looks far more democratic, and most people are less contentious in regard to their state government than in regard to the federal government.) It helps us accept the “adjustment.”

    I noticed the president also answered a question about whether he’d be issuing national orders for some kind of lock down with an initial “no,” followed very quickly by “we’re nowhere near that yet.” I love that word “yet” when used in connection with Cov-19. How many times were the American people told there was nothing to worry about “yet”? Until, all of a sudden on a Monday morning a couple weeks ago we were informed by CDC that it was time to panic-buy toilet paper and lysol? That Friday we were assured we didn’t need to worry, yet, because the vice president was going to handle all of the messaging and management from there on out. And now we’re here, where we’re a “long way” from a federally-ordered lock down “yet.”

    So, how long is it between yesterday’s press conference and “yet”? A week? A couple days? Surely not before the Peace Corps is repatriated. But no indication from the major I know that troops will be deployed, yet. “Yet.”

    I don’t know which annoys me more: the increasing likelihood of a strong government hand (always in the name of public safety); or the fact that  so many “free” Americans think that means we have unbounded license but no responsibility to curb our behaviors in the face of a shared threat (which makes the strong arm of government necessary); or the obvious contempt for the rationality of citizens exhibited by government’s self-styled elites who brazenly lie and obfuscate and worry about their political asses and job security (like pathetic middle level bureaucrats) when what adult free people need is transparency, true statesman-like leadership, and clear communications; or that “second rate” countries like Singapore can do all of this so much better than us – despite our CDC brag that (on paper) we scored at the top of the latest international “pandemic games” stress test.

    Inclines one to antiestablishmentarianism, if not misanthropy. At least, it does in moments of loving despair over the never-ending cascade of human foibles to which we are all heir – that keep effing up our best efforts to evolve.

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Tue, Mar 17, 2020 - 5:33am

    #35
    DaveDD

    DaveDD

    Status: Member

    Joined: Sep 08 2019

    Posts: 43

    I hope this is NOT true,

    unless there is guaranty of extensive  testing, including impact of potential reinfection with different strains. If not, this feels more like a potential death sentence.

    https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/denmark-passes-law-enabling-forced-coronavirus-vaccinations

     

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Tue, Mar 17, 2020 - 5:42am

    Reply to #23
    VTGothic

    VTGothic

    Status: Member

    Joined: Jan 05 2020

    Posts: 59

    What is being done in your community to help those in need? How can we help – from a distance? Ideas.

    Our rural Vermont 5-mile long dead-end road has organized a list of email addresses and phone numbers so we can keep in touch with one another without our usual stops by one another’s homes. The younger people, and vigorous older neighbors, are eager to be of help to the infirm and elderly by running errands and leaving supplies at an agreed location at the recipient’s home. (We have no fear of theft. No one locks doors here.)

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Tue, Mar 17, 2020 - 5:59am

    Reply to #23

    dtrammel

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: May 03 2011

    Posts: 698

    Support For The Elderly / Hourly workers

    I saw where several local grocery stores are having special “Over 60 only” shopping hours.

    https://www.ksdk.com/article/news/health/coronavirus/fields-foods-shopping-60-older-coronavirus-at-risk/63-17a39454-3d9e-4653-91ee-8964e9f99f0b?

    also this:

    https://www.newscentermaine.com/article/news/health/coronavirus/south-portland-landlord-challenges-others-to-offer-financial-relief-due-to-coronavirus-concerns/97-bac48d89-43df-434a-93a6-4734445206dd?

    Landlord offering one month free rent to low pay hourly workers in his buildings.

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Tue, Mar 17, 2020 - 6:11am

    Reply to #32
    Chris Martenson

    Chris Martenson

    Status: Platinum Member

    Joined: Jun 07 2007

    Posts: 5031

    DIY masks

    Vacuum cleaner bags!  Of course! /Slaps forehead/

    Great find.

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Tue, Mar 17, 2020 - 6:16am

    #36
    logidin

    logidin

    Status: Member

    Joined: Mar 06 2020

    Posts: 1

    1+

    France feedback, hydroxychloroquin, viral load

    Hello Chris and the team. I want to thank you for the work you have been doing, you might have saved many lives. I am french and things are getting really messed up here. I would like to share some info/feedback with you.

    In France we have the most renowded scientist in the world when it comes to virus, microbiology and this kind of stuff : Didier Raoult.

    I would like to share with you one presentation he did not long ago about the outcome of one study he has been doing on treating covid subjects with hydroxychloroquine.

    Here is the video : https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n4J8kydOvbc&feature=emb_logo

    Here is the pdf of his presentation : https://www.mediterranee-infection.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/COVID-19.pdf

    I have no time to translate the full video but here are the key points :

    – Best strategy is : diagnose, test and treat people. EARLY.

    – Contagion depends on viral load, if it decreases, so do contagious power. – This is what did China and South Korea

    – Test are actually easy to perform by any lab using Polymerase Chain Reaction

    – Therefore, deciding not to perform early and massive testing, nor to communicate about the virus is a political choice, will lead to this kind of situation. Our governments are criminals.

    – Results of his study in Marseille over more than 15000 tests are : the virus is really contagious but if you perform massive testing the fatality rate seems to actually be quite lower than expected (explains South Korea, Diamond Princess), around 1%.

    – If you perform test only on people with advanced symptoms, fatality rate goes up.

    – He then gives data about age.

    – Talking about how french health department tagged him as fake news.

    – He gives results about his study on hydroxychloroquin (600mg/day in france =/= 1000mg/day in china)

    – After 6 days with plaquenil only 25% patients still have viral load, without plaquenil 90% still have viral load.

    – Antibiotic azytromycin works against viruses

    – Viral load is the key

    Conclusion : You HAVE to perform massive testing and treat people EARLY, like south Korea did, instead of telling them to stay home until symptoms get worse and you get respiratory distress and lungs have extended damage. Sorry for grammar mistakes, I wrote this quickly, I hope this info gets to you as it is relevant to me, I will post it on youtube too.

    Thank you and have a great day

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Tue, Mar 17, 2020 - 6:20am

    Reply to #32

    dtrammel

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: May 03 2011

    Posts: 698

    Cutting Viral Load, Even Some Is Good

    Per your discussion in the video on cutting down on the viral load to give your immune system a chance, I notice that most DIY mask materials in the test perform at a minimum of 50%. That would at least cut off 1-2 days of infection.

    I think though furnace filters of the HEPA type, high filtration rate, would be easier. They are relatively cheap ($20US for a 16×25″), even bigger when unfolded (see screen grab) and can be cut up easier than disassembling a vacumn bag. Here’s a screen grab of a video tutorial on how to do one.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K-HRVrwxw9k&t

    I picked up the material for a try at making one myself yesterday and I’m going to have pictures up by the evening I hope.

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Tue, Mar 17, 2020 - 6:27am

    #37
    Matties

    Matties

    Status: Member

    Joined: Jan 30 2020

    Posts: 160

    re : DIY masks

    Good find !

    facemask2013

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Tue, Mar 17, 2020 - 6:52am

    #38

    Afridev

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: Oct 11 2013

    Posts: 154

    Visualising what's likely in the pipeline

    I like to clarify things through overviews, here one I want to use around me for clarifying what’s probably coming down the pipe (hope the overview can be read, cannot upload original size…).

    The effectiveness of your system will depend on whether and when the shift from process- and rule-based approach to results-based approach aiming for ‘good enough’ results can be made.

    The 50% of medical staff out (second red block) is not a fixed number in any way, just an indication that your system is losing capacity fast. In the largest emergency where I worked (Mozambique 1998 – cholera epidemic) we ‘burned through’ expat staff in on average 2-3 weeks. Medical and support staff will have a very hard time once they cannot send severe cases to reference structures anymore. If this becomes a bad scenario (seems likely at the moment) this is going to be a pretty traumatic period for many. Better try to charge the batteries as good as you can before it gathers steam.

    edit: Dtrammel; did the change you suggested but came out the same as the image you presented.

    First blue text: ‘Reference (specialised) health care systems not able to cope anymore
    Second blue text: ‘Reference health care systems refuse to take more patients‘; that means probably no, or very limited, ER, no routine medical care
    Third blue text: ‘50% Of local medical staff is sick, in self-quarantine or in burn-out‘; you’ll have to sit it out…

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Tue, Mar 17, 2020 - 7:09am

    #39

    dtrammel

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: May 03 2011

    Posts: 698

    I see where you are going now Afridev

    I see what you were getting at about fall off of the line as health care workers get ill now.

    BTW, Peak Prosperity defaults media uploads to 300 pixels wide. If you go back into your post to edit, then select Text, not visual, then in the line that has the image, change the width = to 700 and delete the height, it should make the image about as wide as the post.

    It will be a little blurry though. I host my images on a private website, then link to them directly not upload here, that way they are wide and crisp.

    You make a good point, and something we should highlight as we go forward.

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Tue, Mar 17, 2020 - 7:11am

    #40
    Matties

    Matties

    Status: Member

    Joined: Jan 30 2020

    Posts: 160

    re : I hope this is NOT true

    Well, i do have a religious comment : The Antichrist is coming.

    I do have a politically observation : “The parliamentary session was itself affected by the pandemic, with only 95 out of 179 MPs present for the vote, efforts made to ensure that MPs kept a safe distance from one another, and MPs voting by standing up. ”

    And a medical one : The SARS vaccination failed because second infections were deadly.

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Tue, Mar 17, 2020 - 7:14am

    Reply to #36
    Mohammed Mast

    Mohammed Mast

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: May 17 2017

    Posts: 157

    Sorry Logidin

    Arithromycyn is NOT an anti viral. It is an antibiotic effective on bacteria

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Tue, Mar 17, 2020 - 7:15am

    #41
    Zana Hart

    Zana Hart

    Status: Member

    Joined: Dec 23 2011

    Posts: 31

    I've got shingles which is also a virus

    I got diagnosed yesterday with shingles, and so far I’ve learned that it is no fun. But I do wonder if the antiviral med I’m on might help with cov19.. it’s Valacyclovir Hcl, 1 gram tablet

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Tue, Mar 17, 2020 - 7:16am

    #42
    Zana Hart

    Zana Hart

    Status: Member

    Joined: Dec 23 2011

    Posts: 31

    1+

    Humor

    https://www.boredpanda.com/quarantine-coronavirus-jokes/

     

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Tue, Mar 17, 2020 - 7:31am

    Reply to #42
    ddelong

    ddelong

    Status: Member

    Joined: Jan 20 2015

    Posts: 32

    Re: Humor

    Thank you Zana, I needed that.

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Tue, Mar 17, 2020 - 7:32am

    Reply to #41
    mntnhousepermi

    mntnhousepermi

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: Feb 19 2016

    Posts: 260

    acyclovir, valcyclovir - no

    The short answer is it would likely have no effect.  That is why they are not giving it to COV-19 patients.

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Tue, Mar 17, 2020 - 7:49am

    Reply to #36
    Soar07

    Soar07

    Status: Member

    Joined: Aug 05 2010

    Posts: 11

    Hydroxychloroquinine

    What about the possibility of using the fish aquarium chloroquinine phosphate if you cannot access it from your doctor as things get worse?

     

     

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Tue, Mar 17, 2020 - 7:53am

    #43
    ao

    ao

    Status: Platinum Member

    Joined: Feb 04 2009

    Posts: 1243

    another knife in the heart of the economy

    https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-amazon-suspends-all-non-essential-shipments-to-warehouses-2020-3

    You wonder how many more “wounds” of this nature the “patient” can sustain before it expires.

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Tue, Mar 17, 2020 - 8:05am

    #44

    dtrammel

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: May 03 2011

    Posts: 698

    Amazon story not behind paywall

    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/exclusive-amazon-stops-receiving-non-142026737.html

     

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Tue, Mar 17, 2020 - 8:16am

    #45
    Steve

    Steve

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: Jun 27 2009

    Posts: 110

    Transfusion Rumor from China - does anybody have any info on this?

    About a month back there was some posts about successfully using transfusions from recovered patients to cure acute cases.

    I received this note from an associate this morning…

    “My wife works with an epidemiologist at Harvard who told her this morning they are making immunoglobin from recovered patients in China and are starting to ship to the US. This should cure acute cases and hopefully halt the panic and death rates. Probably within a month. Hope they’re right.”

    Does anybody have any additional information on transfusions?

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Tue, Mar 17, 2020 - 8:21am

    #46
    meteor35

    meteor35

    Status: Member

    Joined: Mar 07 2020

    Posts: 9

    Something going on in China?

    I’m downloading data from https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/publications-data/download-todays-data-geographic-distribution-covid-19-cases-worldwide

    Just noticed for today they showed a spike in cases from 25 up to 110.  They have been in the 20’s since March 10th and all of a sudden it spikes to 110 on the past report.  I know this seems like a very small number , however, the trend may be something to watch in the days ahead.

    3/8/2020 46
    3/9/2020 45
    3/10/2020 20
    3/11/2020 29
    3/12/2020 24
    3/13/2020 22
    3/14/2020 19
    3/15/2020 22
    3/16/2020 25
    3/17/2020 110

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Tue, Mar 17, 2020 - 8:22am

    Reply to #36

    KugsCheese

    Status: Gold Member

    Joined: Jan 01 2010

    Posts: 893

    https://www.drugs.com/pro/chloroquine.html

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Tue, Mar 17, 2020 - 8:30am

    Reply to #45
    Ision

    Ision

    Status: Member

    Joined: Feb 07 2020

    Posts: 81

    Transfusion of blood plasma with Sars-Cov-2 antibodies...

    This is an old technique, used to combat pathogens in those, whose systems are already too degraded to function as they should.   One just hopes the plasma infusion contains the correctly targeted antibodies and these supplied antibodies are not “old and tired.”

    Problems include the amount of plasma used, or required, to be effective..and mixing the sources of the plasma, which might mean mixing the targeting of the antibodies provided.  Hopefully, the supplied antibodies will not subject the patient to ADE, but such critically ill patients will most likely not survive in any case.

    There is a problem of supply to demand, which increases the more such plasma is used for each patient.   How many liters are needed to cure a very sick person?  One, three, fifty?

     

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Tue, Mar 17, 2020 - 8:35am

    Reply to #36
    MarkM

    MarkM

    Status: Silver Member

    Joined: Jul 22 2008

    Posts: 379

    @MM

    Maybe yes, on azithromycin.

    https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4923851/

     

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Tue, Mar 17, 2020 - 8:39am

    Reply to #46
    Ision

    Ision

    Status: Member

    Joined: Feb 07 2020

    Posts: 81

    China number spikes...

    One will see spikes as China orders its workers out of isolation and back to work, thinking a particular area is safe enough to put people back to work.  However, just as soon as the workers come out of isolation, within a week, the pathogen again explodes into the work force…causing the Chinese to send them back into isolation.

    Each time China tests the waters…expect spikes.

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Tue, Mar 17, 2020 - 8:46am

    #47
    ezlxq1949

    ezlxq1949

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: Apr 29 2009

    Posts: 334

    hydroxychloroquinine is not chloroquinine

    They’re different. The Chinese researchers were investigating chloroquinine phosphate, and so is Prof Raoult.

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Tue, Mar 17, 2020 - 8:48am

    #48
    Ision

    Ision

    Status: Member

    Joined: Feb 07 2020

    Posts: 81

    What If, No Matter How Long You Hide...SARS-CoV-2...Will Be Waiting For You?

    I am beginning to think people shall need to remain in isolation for a very long time, or, until EVERYONE is equipped with PPE and wears it…at all times they are in public places.

    We may need to establish a totally new process of food safety and delivery, which includes bulk radiation and HV-C sterilization techniques.   New businesses dedicated to sterile food packaging and delivery….fashionable PPE…UV-C “baths” in public places…public toilets with timed HV-C radiation before its next user…and the like.

     

    We may be forced to stay in some sort of isolation until the pathogen mutates away from being a threat.  Years?

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Tue, Mar 17, 2020 - 8:57am

    Reply to #46
    MarkM

    MarkM

    Status: Silver Member

    Joined: Jul 22 2008

    Posts: 379

    Hubei

    Read somewhere today, I can’t find it now, that a couple of cities in Hubei had relaxed the quarantine only to reimplement it a day later. If so, that is not encouraging.

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Tue, Mar 17, 2020 - 9:12am

    Reply to #21
    RocketDoc

    RocketDoc

    Status: Member

    Joined: Aug 28 2013

    Posts: 26

    Lockdown is overkill

    I am in complete agreement with social distancing.  I have problems with the concept of “lockdown”.  A checkpoint to go visit my daughter in her own quarantine in a town 100 miles away does not seem logical.  If friends in quarantine for a week want to come over to my house while I have been in quarantine for a week–is that irresponsible?  Our county announced its first case 1 hour ago.  I decided a month ago that more than one case in my city/county would necessitate closing my dental practice.  Single person visits with common sense protections should be sufficient to slow the progress of disease.  If it is not, then we will just have to see who survives it because as soon as we quit isolating, the disease spread will resume.  And we are not all going to sit in our room until nobody has the disease.

    Can I go to a park?

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Tue, Mar 17, 2020 - 9:18am

    #49

    dtrammel

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: May 03 2011

    Posts: 698

    Its Not You RocketDoc That Worries Me

    “Revelers celebrate St. Patrick’s Day Saturday, March 14, 2020, during an unofficial gathering at Tracey’s Original Irish Channel Bar in New Orleans. (Scott Threlkeld/The Advocate via AP)”

    Want to guess how many of those people were wearing masks or practicing social distancing?

    In New Orleans and Chicago, people clad in green for St. Patrick’s Day packed bars and spilled onto crowded sidewalks on Saturday even after the cities canceled their parades.

    “I’m not about to put my life on hold because this is going around,” Kyle Thomas told the Chicago Sun-Times. Thomas, a nurse from Colorado, said he had flown to Chicago to celebrate St. Patrick’s Day with friends and thought people might be ”overreacting.”

    In New Orleans, Syd Knight, 86, celebrated despite the public health warnings and the higher risk she faced because of her age.

    “The Lord will take care of us all,” Knight told The Times-Picayune-New Orleans Advocate.

    Oklahoma’s governor tweeted a picture of himself and his children at a crowded metro restaurant Saturday night.

    In the since-deleted tweet, Republican Gov. Kevin Stitt wrote: “Eating with my kids and all my fellow Oklahomans at the @CollectiveOKC. It’s packed tonight!”

    “The governor will continue to take his family out to dinner and to the grocery store without living in fear, and encourages Oklahomans to do the same,” Charlie Hannema, a spokesman for the governor, said in an email.

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Tue, Mar 17, 2020 - 9:31am

    #50

    Afridev

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: Oct 11 2013

    Posts: 154

    Question on modelling

    I’m trying to see if I can make a model that predicts how many cases we could expect every day/ week. Even if it is very approximate, being able to say that in x scenario we could expect y number of new cases per day gives some handle of what a community can expect in case load.

    I think there are different aspects that will change the form of the curve:

    I wonder if there is a model that could produce some predictive data. A quick search on the internet didn’t generate much useful info. Maybe it is there though.

    The normal curve could probably be used, but I have to admit that I never really grasped this when it was covered in school :).

    For some of the more statistics/ mathematically gifted persons around here, do you think that that approach would make sense? Would it potentially generate useful data?

    If yes, do you know of a place where you can find relatively ‘noob-friendly’ info?

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Tue, Mar 17, 2020 - 9:32am

    Reply to #48

    dtrammel

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: May 03 2011

    Posts: 698

    Its Just How Big Of A Price We Are Willing To Pay

    I am beginning to think people shall need to remain in isolation for a very long time, or, until EVERYONE is equipped with PPE and wears it…at all times they are in public places.

    Nah, we will get herd immunity in 2-3 years. Its just how big of a price will we pay to get it. 2 million, 5 million, 10 million, 50 million?

    Once we do, it will just be another Fall flu that people get and some people die. We’re fine with 50-100K dying from simple influenza now. We’ll be fine with the same for Covid19.

    Though I for one would like to be one of the 20-30% without herd immunity who never gets it.

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Tue, Mar 17, 2020 - 9:32am

    #51

    AKGrannyWGrit

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: Feb 06 2011

    Posts: 846

    Dream or Nightmare?

    “We may be forced to stay in some sort of isolation until the pathogen mutates away from being a threat.  Years?”

    For us introverts thats a dream come true.  But a nightmare for extroverts and the young party crowd.

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Tue, Mar 17, 2020 - 9:34am

    Reply to #47
    Mary Catherine Tartara

    Mary Catherine Tartara

    Status: Member

    Joined: Mar 13 2020

    Posts: 6

    hydroxychloroquinine is not chloroquinine

    But they are similar right?  I’m on Plaquenil.  I was hoping that would be a benefit to me.

    Hydroxychloroquine has largely replaced chloroquine in the United States, except among patients who travel to areas endemic with malaria. Although the mechanisms of the two agents are presumed to be the same, many reports suggest that chloroquine is more toxic to the retina than hydroxychloroquine

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Tue, Mar 17, 2020 - 9:36am

    Reply to #46

    dtrammel

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: May 03 2011

    Posts: 698

    Chris posted a video Mark

    Scroll up to post #17

    “Anecdotal Evidence of China’s Troubles

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Tue, Mar 17, 2020 - 9:53am

    Reply to #48

    Afridev

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: Oct 11 2013

    Posts: 154

    dtrammel

    If you’re with the 20-30% that hasn’t been infected, is it because you didn’t get in contact with the infection, or is it because your bodies defenses are able to avoid infection? Usually there are people who are just able to resist infection. Same conditions, same preventative measures; I have had malaria 4+ times, my wife never. Can be luck, but there are many cases like that. I have certainly been in contact with high doses of cholera, never had it though…

    The difference between the two is a life spent in isolation and behind protective gear in a risky period, or being able to go about without having any issues… Until you encounter a serotype that gets through. But that’s the same for any person

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Tue, Mar 17, 2020 - 9:53am

    #52
    Ejh237

    Ejh237

    Status: Member

    Joined: Oct 16 2011

    Posts: 29

    "No Proof Masks Work"

    So, we have the person who is both on our city council, and is responsible for our elderly center (finally closed down… last in thing in the town to close), in a council meeting last night, when I asked about PPE during food prep, all the way thru delivery, she said “I know all of our core group preparing meals, and trust them”, and “there is no proof masks do any good, and we don’t have any”. A second council member seconded the mask’s don’t work, as tho read from the script.  After two attempts to dissuade her from the mask lie, and the fact that TRUST has nothing to do with if one of them catches this thing… and becomes a super spreader (didn’t say that exact thing) to our elderly population.

    It is REALLY hard to convince someone of something they have been programmed to see otherwise.

    Our community has a LARGE elderly population…  It’s a tiny rural town, so everyone seems to either die early, or live to 100.  We may just be losing them all.

    Eric & Cindy in Washington State

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Tue, Mar 17, 2020 - 10:13am

    #53
    ao

    ao

    Status: Platinum Member

    Joined: Feb 04 2009

    Posts: 1243

    here it comes ... helicopter money for everyone

    https://www.zerohedge.com/political/watch-live-white-house-holds-daily-coronavirus-task-force-briefing

    I predict the eventual emergence of a new and powerful third political party, The Everything for Everyone Party.  They will give everyone everything they want until the whole shebang just explodes (or implodes as it may).

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Tue, Mar 17, 2020 - 10:15am

    #54
    centroid

    centroid

    Status: Member

    Joined: Nov 16 2014

    Posts: 49

    helicopter money: how to destroy real wealth. how to destroy manufacturing.

    Broken countries.  Broken trade. Broken bond markets. Broken manufacturing. Broken businesses. Broken housing markets. Broken Labour markets. Broken people.  Mal-investments. Wealth inequality. Big Government. Mass immigration. Wars. Even climate change.

    End the FED. End the ECB. End the BOJ. End the PBOC. End the BOE. End the SNB. End the RBA

    Bring back The Classical Gold Standard.

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Tue, Mar 17, 2020 - 10:22am

    #55
    Mohammed Mast

    Mohammed Mast

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: May 17 2017

    Posts: 157

    Masks

    Have had a respiratory infection (bronchitis ) for a month. Finally went to urgent care to get some serious meds. It was a brand new office. No one but me there. I wore one of my few remaining masks. Went to the counter started telling the receptionist what the issue was and filling out paperwork. There was a sign on the counter that said if you are coughing or sneezing please take a mask. I said nice sign but there were no masks . She said they keep them underneath behind the counter because people take them. I said great plan. Then I told her that this was my last mask and she said ” oh do you need more?” Not being one to miss an opportunity I said “sure you bet” She reached down and gave me a handful.

    Went back yesterday and different receptionist. Again no one in the place. I went in w/o a mask and said I need a mask. She said ” sure” and handed me one. I have found my strategy for accumulating masks and am making many more appointments

    lol

     

     

     

     

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Tue, Mar 17, 2020 - 10:22am

    Reply to #52
    ddelong

    ddelong

    Status: Member

    Joined: Jan 20 2015

    Posts: 32

    Re: "No Proof Masks Work"

    Ejh237,

    I totally understand how you must feel.  That kind of absurdity has no place in rational discussion.  Should have come out and said we are doing our best, we don’t have any masks and are looking for other options for those that want to afford some level of protection to themselves and the community.

    In a bizzaro world, their statement that masks don’t work would be wonderful, all of our HCWs no longer need masks either.  Mask crisis has been averted.  Bureaucracy to the rescue.

    If anything I hope that this situation might open enough people’s eyes that we need leaders and statesmen that are ultimately in the people’s interest not managers and bureaucrats what are most often acting in their own interest.

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Tue, Mar 17, 2020 - 10:27am

    #56
    Mrswede

    Mrswede

    Status: Member

    Joined: May 07 2014

    Posts: 4

    Go Big Red (and PP, too!)

    Considering the connection here to Chris’ own background, this recent Cornell community letter from its president, Martha Pollack, also reiterates the psychological hurdle we are all up against with our friends & family:

    https://statements.cornell.edu/2020/20200317-6CA37g-to-the-cornell-community.cfm

    …”In the past week to 10 days, all of our lives have changed in ways that are almost incomprehensible. My colleague Vice President Ryan Lombardi likes to talk about the need to “process” new information, and that’s what every single one of us is doing: trying to process our situation. This takes time and it takes psychological energy, so please be patient with yourself and expect a wide range of emotions. Please also be patient with your friends and loved ones, especially those with whom you will be spending a lot of time in the coming weeks.

    I am a bridge player—not a very good one, but I do enjoy the game. In bridge, you are sometimes dealt a great hand: lots of high cards, distributed across the suits in an advantageous way. Other times, you are dealt a terrible hand. The great hands are unquestionably more fun to play, but every bridge player knows that you have to play the hand you’re dealt. Sometimes, doing an outstanding job with a terrible hand can be incredibly rewarding.

    Right now, we’ve all been dealt a bad hand—and we have to play it, and play it to the best of our abilities. So many of our plans have been disrupted, leaving us frustrated and disappointed. But we can rise to meet this challenge, just as previous generations of Cornellians have when they faced huge and unexpected challenges, whether it was a World War, or the Great Depression, or the scourge of AIDS.”

    Worth a read of the entire letter.  Its not all negative out there…

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Tue, Mar 17, 2020 - 10:44am

    #57

    westcoastjan

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: Jun 04 2012

    Posts: 325

    Drive through clinic in Victoria BC - yay!

    Drive-through coronavirus test clinic up and running in Victoria

    by referral appointment only, hope this helps and is a start to more like this! Save people from going into hospital emergency rooms!

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Tue, Mar 17, 2020 - 10:44am

    #58
    Mrswede

    Mrswede

    Status: Member

    Joined: May 07 2014

    Posts: 4

    The local banks are starting to get it

    At least here in MA:

    https://www.institutionforsavings.com/Coronavirus_Info.htm

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Tue, Mar 17, 2020 - 10:44am

    Reply to #50
    DaveDD

    DaveDD

    Status: Member

    Joined: Sep 08 2019

    Posts: 43

    Reply model

    Hi Afrediv,

    Yes, there are simulation models. The main questions are: 1) how is your math?, and 2) what program do you use (e.g., Excel, Phyton, Matlab, or the a manual calculator).

    For an example, you could check out this example. A model accounting for policies, and other factors is actually rather complex. The interesting thing about the example in the wikipedia page is that if the number of infected people is much smaller than the maximum population size, a standard exponential function will do.

    Instead of creating a complex model with all kind of parameters that need to be determined I would suggest to “fit” an exponential function:

                                #Infected = B*exp(A*days),

    with A and B the fitting constants, and days the number of days since a starting point (the days are plotted on the horizontal (x) axis). All complexities are captured by the fitting constants. You will find that this give a reasonable accurate short term prediction (1-5 days ahead) and a rough (and scary) long term prediction.

    • If you only have a hand held calculator I can create an example how to do all this by hand.
    • If you know some basic math and some basic spreadsheet skills, this should be rather straightforward: you convert the data to a linear function:
      • by taking the natural logarithm (the “ln” function) of the equation above you get: ln(#Infected) = ln(B) + A*days. This is a linear function (straight line). A is the slope of the line, days is plotted along the horizontal axis, ln(#Infected) is plotted on the vertical (=y) axis, and ln(B) is the intercept, the value at which the straight line crosses the y-axis.
    • If you are fluent in math and programming this should not be an issue at all. I calculate the fit parameters based on the last 7 days, and if the doubling time changes more than 10% I update the constants that I use for prediction.

    Hope this helps.

    Take care!

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Tue, Mar 17, 2020 - 10:45am

    Reply to #32

    Montana Native

    Status: Member

    Joined: Mar 17 2009

    Posts: 110

    dtrammel.....on masks

    My wife is a pharmacist and she doubts when she goes back to work next week there will be PPE. I’m trying to come up with a decent solution. I have enough for all her employees to get 1 N-95 each. Should have stocked up, but didn’t want to hoard and it never crossed my mind if she was the only one showing up in PPE, the herd would get nervous. You are on top of everything here….best ideas for sterilizing and reuse and best idea for homemade masks. Thanks, TJ

    Also great work on the forum lately. You’re quickly becoming a PP legend like saxplayer, Davos, and many others.

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Tue, Mar 17, 2020 - 10:56am

    Reply to #53

    AKGrannyWGrit

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: Feb 06 2011

    Posts: 846

    Here it comes ... helicopter money for everyone

    I predict the eventual emergence of a new and powerful third political party, The Everything for Everyone Party.  They will give everyone everything they want until the whole shebang just explodes (or implodes as it may)

    Well thank God!  It’s easy to be cynical when you have lots of money.  I have children who will find this quarantine financially difficult.  There are A LOT of people who will find not getting a paycheck through no fault of their own ———-devastating!!

    This situation is not just about “us”. We are all parts of a community and when the community suffers we should notice! And help.

    AKGrannyWGrit

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Tue, Mar 17, 2020 - 11:02am

    #59
    lmcdel

    lmcdel

    Status: Member

    Joined: Jul 12 2012

    Posts: 15

    Military - anecdote

    I met with a military contractor today, whose main job is teaching about human behavior to military and law enforcement. His side job is installing gates and deer/elk fences, which is what we met about. His upcoming contract work has been cancelled. I asked him about the military being brought home, and for what reason – to keep peace, or – ? He said that it is being done for their own safety, as they live in such close quarters, that if they get this virus, it will sweep through ferociously. They are no longer able to fly commercial. And, they are on/will be on lockdown, for their own safety. He guesses that all, or most, military have already been tested for the virus.  Perhaps this has been shared already, though I didn’t see it on a quick look.

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Tue, Mar 17, 2020 - 11:16am

    #60
    Zana Hart

    Zana Hart

    Status: Member

    Joined: Dec 23 2011

    Posts: 31

    Heads Up: Get things done while you feel good

    I posted yesterday that I just got shingles. This isn’t about me though. I just want to encourage everyone to do whatever needs doing at your place or in your life NOW. If you get sick, your brain may not work as well, nor your stamina. I learned this in the past couple of days!

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Tue, Mar 17, 2020 - 11:18am

    Reply to #53
    ao

    ao

    Status: Platinum Member

    Joined: Feb 04 2009

    Posts: 1243

    AKGranny, i'm not sure and maybe I misinterpreted

    But are you taking a verbal shot at me because I posted this?

    I didn’t say people won’t find this quarantine financially devastating.  I also didn’t say people not getting a paycheck wouldn’t be devastating.  I also didn’t say this is only about “us” nor did I deny the importance of community.  Quite frankly, I’d rather see the money going to the people than to banks, financial services, and other corporations.  But do you think this is a sustainable situation, regardless of who is getting the money?

    Forgive me for saying this but you often seem to find minimal excuse for taking offense.  If I’m wrong here, I stand corrected.

    I’m just reporting the news.  Don’t shoot the messenger.

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Tue, Mar 17, 2020 - 11:43am

    #61
    Bren

    Bren

    Status: Member

    Joined: Feb 27 2020

    Posts: 19

    Our favorite epidemiologost at Imperial College of London

    Hello from SE Wisconsin,

    I just came across the latest research from epidemiologist Dr. Neil Ferguson on ZeroHedge. I first became aware of Dr. Ferguson’s scholarly insight about the then Chinese crisis in a video posted weeks ago in this ongoing daily forum.

    https://www.zerohedge.com/health/terrifying-new-research-warns-22-million-could-die-us-without-drastic-action

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Tue, Mar 17, 2020 - 11:47am

    #62

    thc0655

    Status: Platinum Member

    Joined: Apr 27 2010

    Posts: 1836

    Pessimistic report from California ED nurse.

    Summary: even the best health care systems aren’t moving fast enough. Disaster dead ahead.

    http://raconteurreport.blogspot.com/2020/03/you-really-have-no-idea.html

    …Some days back, I stated that I didn’t think we’d bring Kung Flu patients into the hospital, but instead, triage them in tents outside, then send the ones meeting criteria to some FEMA-set-up Kung Flu Treatment Center, staffed as possible, and serviced by dedicated Hazmat 9-1-1 ambulances, whisking members of the community there as appropriate, in full protective gear, 24/7/365.

    Because, as I argued with flawless logic, to do otherwise would be to
    a) risk our entire healthcare system being overwhelmed and destroyed, a la Italy, and
    b) make every other medical emergency impossible to deal with, thus doubling casualties from every other treatable and preventable cause of death, from heart attacks and strokes to appendicitis, because the entirety of any and every hospital would be filled with Kung Flu-infected plague petri dishes, in every nook and cranny.

    Turns out, TPTB, top to bottom, make the Italians look like Leonardo da Vinci.

    1) We’re not putting tents up everywhere.
    2) We’re not segregating people out of the hospital.
    3) We’ll do a half-assed triage assessment outside the building somewhere (fill in the blank where___________)
    4) Using screening criteria overtaken by reality a month ago, because the CDC, no matter how asinine, is always the CDC
    4a) to wit, asking about foreign travel, even though homegrown community-acquired cases outstrip foreign travel candidates, and have for two weeks
    4b) ask about exposure to known Kung Flu patients, even though the CDC and local public health  departments refused to test for Kung Flu until four days ago, in most cases, (due to jackassery, fuckwittery, and a dearth of functional kits for two months) thus insuring via Catch-22, that if you never test for King Flu, nobody anyone was in contact with ever officially has Kung Flu
    5) then bring the infected into an appropriate sealed negative airflow room
    5a) which cleverly has no patient monitoring equipment
    5b) will not allow you to get portable chest x-ray equipment into the room with the patient with respiratory problems (which, cleverly, no one thought about prior to then)
    5c) which would contaminate said portable x-ray equipment every time you got it into the quarantine room
    5d) which would require an extensive, nigh impossible decontamination of said X-ray equipment for each and every subsequent patient
    5e) thus leading to shooting x-rays outside the building, or in other places that probably violate 27 hospital safety policies, local health and safety codes, and probably eleventy Nuclear Regulatory Commission regulations regarding radiological safety of patients, staff, and bystanders, in a slow-rolling Chernobyl sort of way
    5f) and taking them to CT scanners which are then contaminated, and failing to do a full terminal clean of said rooms and equipment each and every time, which would take them offline for hours each shift, and necessitate closing the hospital to ambulance traffic, so why bother cleaning?
    6)unless you’re fresh out of negative airflow rooms, in which case you
    7) put them into open rooms with no protection or containment
    8) thus insuring that all staff members and other patients are exposed over and over again
    9) to cases which will not be tested for Kung Flu unless they’re first proven negative for the flu
    10) Or not
    11) All such “policies” being rather more like the Pirates Code (“just guidelines, really”), purely at the whimsy and caprice of whatever doctor(s), charge nurses, or cranky old bat nurse has phone duty that day at the Public Health office, and their personal and capricious interpretation of the current (of four or five or six, so far) CDC guidelines
    12) which apparently are changed every hour, if not more frequently
    13) while the managers, and senior management, who should be living in the same shoes and underpants 24/7/365 until they sort this shit out, weekend or no, but whom are instead nowhere to be seen, heard from, or in any wise directly involved, until the total colossal clusterfuck falls over from its own weight seven or eight times over, between Friday afternoon and the middle of the following week.
    14) while staff and patients having to deal with the results of people with Acute-on-Chronic Head-Up-The-Ass-Syndrome are repeatedly subjected to potential pandemic exposure, leading to sickness, preventative quarantine, lawsuits, and death
    15) as the Low IQ staff members, who still think this is no big deal, continue to half-ass every bit of their response, 24/7/365, because half of them were below the upper/lower cut in their graduating classes as well…

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yFCvg8uokZc&feature=emb_logo

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Tue, Mar 17, 2020 - 11:54am

    #63
    Dutch Boomer

    Dutch Boomer

    Status: Member

    Joined: Feb 06 2020

    Posts: 69

    First money for small business

    All business in Holland that had to close such as bars, restaurants etc get 4000 euro and 90% of all employee costs until reopening.

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Tue, Mar 17, 2020 - 11:55am

    #64

    sand_puppy

    Status: Platinum Member

    Joined: Apr 13 2011

    Posts: 2161

    Medical Systems Cannot Adapt in Time

    Very much agree with thc0655’s post of the ED nurse above:  Our hospital based systems cannot adapt in time.  Every suggestion to increase efficiency is met with a counter “We can’t do that because _____”

    The system is complex and interconnected and would require a re-engineering/re-designing to make it work well in the pandemic setting.  And many of the changes needed are actually unlawful.

    We are heading into a total shit show from top to bottom and people will die on the sidewalks in front of the ER.  And the staff will get sick and die with them.

    I am very discouraged.

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Tue, Mar 17, 2020 - 11:57am

    #65
    Dutch Boomer

    Dutch Boomer

    Status: Member

    Joined: Feb 06 2020

    Posts: 69

    Self employed

    Also self-employed who lost contract can apply for assistance without fuzz or need to repay later

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Tue, Mar 17, 2020 - 12:00pm

    #66
    Dutch Boomer

    Dutch Boomer

    Status: Member

    Joined: Feb 06 2020

    Posts: 69

    Fatality if overwhelmed

    just look at Italy and Germany….. 2503 of 31506 died in Italy versus 24 of total 9352 in Germany

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Tue, Mar 17, 2020 - 12:01pm

    #67
    meteor35

    meteor35

    Status: Member

    Joined: Mar 07 2020

    Posts: 9

    Hospital Bed to State Population

    Here is a quick rundown of Hospital Beds to State Population based on Ratios.  For every 750 persons in Vermont, there is one hospital bed.  Meanwhile, for every 300 people in Mississippi, there is 1 bed.

     

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Tue, Mar 17, 2020 - 12:06pm

    Reply to #50

    Afridev

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: Oct 11 2013

    Posts: 154

    Thank you Dave, great!

    Hi Dave,

    Thanks a lot for your explanation, great. My math is probably intermediate, not fluent, and I’d prefer to work in Excel as I can more easily tweak things without having to recalculate everything (I’m not familiar with specific math programs). I’ll have something to fiddle around with. I’d expect (gut feeling, not scientific) that the exponential function is correct up to possibly 25% of total expected cases, then a counter exponential function would start reducing the number of cases. Mirroring this on the other side would possibly give a plausible curve. No clue if this has any value, but will tinker a bit with this and get back if something interesting comes up.

    Interesting times 🙂

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Tue, Mar 17, 2020 - 12:19pm

    #68

    AKGrannyWGrit

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: Feb 06 2011

    Posts: 846

    ao

    Directly from the article reflected in the post

    “Of that, $500 billion would go directly towards checks for Americans.”

    “I predict the eventual emergence of a new and powerful third political party, The Everything for Everyone Party.  They will give everyone everything they want until the whole shebang just explodes (or implodes as it may)

    This sounds cynical and does not show compassion for those who are frightened and struggling.

    Forgive me for saying this but you often seem to find minimal excuse for taking offense.  If I’m wrong here, I stand corrected.

    There you go again with the –  YOU.  Thanks to Brene Brown I now get it.  You see my statement was that I interpreted your statement as cynical which you could have disagreed with.  Instead of using “YOU “ find minimal excuse for taking offense.  Which is an attack on my character designed to make me feel shame and diminish me.  But it didn’t.  Thank you Brene Brown, audio book, Rising Strong.

    You misunderstand, I am not taking offense, I am stating an alternate viewpoint!  And that viewpoint is sometimes under represented here which tries to bring compassion and empathy to the forefront.  Often the focus and discussion revolves around acquiring money.  So pointing out that the action of helping people in my mind is quite opposite from “the Everything for Everyone party”.  Are not alternate opinions a good thing?

    AKGrannyWGrit

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Tue, Mar 17, 2020 - 12:40pm

    #69

    AKGrannyWGrit

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: Feb 06 2011

    Posts: 846

    Sand Puppy

    You are on the front line of a war.  It is understandable to be discouraged.  I/we wish we could make the situation better for you.

    Pandemics teach us lessons our society needs to learn.  Hopefully, many people armed with cell phone cameras will document the failures of our bureaucratic, for profit corporations and sick care system.

    My prayers are with you.

    AKGranny

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Tue, Mar 17, 2020 - 12:44pm

    #70
    Sparky1

    Sparky1

    Status: Member

    Joined: Jul 21 2016

    Posts: 586

    WH Press Conference on Covid (3/17)

    Note close proximity of participants, reporters about 1.5 feet apart, no one is wearing masks or respirators.

    Some items of interest:

    * Pence requesting construction companies to donate their N95 and higher respirators to health care facilities/personnel;

    * cash directly to citizens, “not millionaires”,  w/in 2 weeks, in addition to payroll tax relief;

    * $10B from Treasury to Fed to guar A1-P1 commercial paper, to be able to provide liquidity and purchase up to $1T (not clear on this, i.e, $10B —>$1T in purchases, possible by leveraging? see at about the 15-minute mark in video);

    * defer $300B in IRS payments for those who owe, up to $1M for individuals, up to $10M for corporations, for interest-free, penalty-free 90-day deferral (16-min. mark)

    * legislation for fiscal stimulus plan including payments (e.g., to airlines, hotels, impacted industries), loan guarantees and “business interruption payments” to American workers;

    * fast-food, restaurants pre-order, drive-through restaurants should be maintained and used;

    * will keep “”markets”” open, may shorten hours, but will ensure Americans have access to their money in their 401K, banks, in stocks;

    * federal gov’t may “supplement” efforts to increase hospital beds/temp facilities in NYC and maybe elsewhere;

    * the President doesn’t believe there will be shortages of pharmaceutical supplies or raw materials from China as they have “every incentive” to produce them;

    *  re: concerns that coronavirus spread/impacts continue months ahead, President stated “we’re getting rid” of the virus, have as few deaths as possible, US has done a great job, once rid of the virus we (America/markets) are going to “pop back like nobody’s ever seen before” (28 min. mark);

    * President has ordered “massive” numbers of ventilators, respirators, we have a “tremendous amount of equipment” but need more than other countries (e.g., Italy) because the US is bigger, “we’ve done really well, the states have done well….”, states can now order directly;

    * state governors can request DoD support for field/”MASH” hospitals and/or assistance from Army Corps of Engineers to retrofit existing facilities for use as hospitals/medical facilities, discussions with governors from NY, CA, WA re: temporary facilities assistance;

    *  increased focus, removed barriers, increased benefits for telehealth via Medicare/Medicaid to reduce CV exposures for elderly and minimize burden on health care workers and facilities;

    *  CDC, public health labs have to-date reported out 31,878 Covid-2019 tests, clinical labs reported abut 27,000 tests or 8,200 were yesterday, no info from hospital labs yet (37-min. mark)

    *  drive-through labs expect to set up 47 of these in 12 states in next few days, shipping materials and equipment, deploying 140 “commission core officers” at these sites to assist with more expected;

    * and more….

    https://www.c-span.org/video/?470426-1/president-trump-urges-states-follow-coronavirus-guidelines

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Tue, Mar 17, 2020 - 12:51pm

    Reply to #59
    Sparky1

    Sparky1

    Status: Member

    Joined: Jul 21 2016

    Posts: 586

    re: Military anecdote

    Thanks for the update Imcdel! We’ll certainly know more in the days to come. ‘Glad that maintaining the health and safety of our military is being taken seriously.

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Tue, Mar 17, 2020 - 12:53pm

    #71
    nordicjack

    nordicjack

    Status: Member

    Joined: Feb 03 2020

    Posts: 329

    recommended PPE for shopping

    What sort of PPE are you recommending for essential shopping,  I do have to make a run to the Home depot, harbor freight , and grocery store ( I am stocked for about 6 mos maybe more – but feel risk is still lower now than later. ) ..    And still doing postal runs at mailbox annex for my business.

     

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Tue, Mar 17, 2020 - 1:00pm

    Reply to #5
    km64

    km64

    Status: Member

    Joined: Feb 03 2020

    Posts: 77

    Just another contigency

    This type of planning and war gaming goes on all the time. Having contingency plans is what it’s all about. Being able to dust off a play book for the zombie apocalypse or an alien invasion is better than making it up as you go along.

    The worry should be that despite having these plans things go badly, but then humans are involved and nobody is perfect.

    With regard to “secret” meetings, there are rumors abound that COVID19 is a BIOWEAPON from the class 4 lab in Wuhan. I would expect there to be secret meetings with the intelligence services in regards to that.

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Tue, Mar 17, 2020 - 1:03pm

    #72
    Bren

    Bren

    Status: Member

    Joined: Feb 27 2020

    Posts: 19

    I will truly miss enjoying a meal for months(?) to come...

    In an encouraging turn, the vast majority of municipalities that constitute Milwaukee County have taken the following step:

    “Health officials in 16 Milwaukee County municipalities, including the city of Milwaukee, have ordered bars and restaurants to close to help slow the spread of the coronavirus.”

    “The executive order restricts food, liquor, beer and wine sales to carry-out and delivery only for all bars and restaurants in the 16 municipalities.”

    I will miss enjoying a memorable meal at my favorite restaurantes in the ensuing month(s?) to come.

    But for the sake of dramatically slowing the community spread while it is still in its nascent stage in SE Wisconsin and elsewhere in this nation, let’s please order out those missed dishes. 

    I feel those who prepared for the presently unfolding crisis should help those who could not because perhaps those who prepared were blessed in some manner with the appropriate mindset to do so. Let’s not loss our humanity as our present society increasingly mirrors past historical events of mass disruption.

    I was a meal-on-wheels driver years ago between jobs.

    Question to the forum:

    Since I have a multiple respirators* and googles, should I reconsider becoming one again?

    Unfortunately, I was likely one of few weekly visitors – or even the only one – to many of the elderly citizens on my route through the East side of Milwaukee and neighboring Shorewoo. Thus, this is reason for my concern for this vulnerable population during the times of coronavirus.

    (Oh, I am a 40ish year old male currently transitioning to plant based food. Forks Over Knives is rather informative 🙂 )

    *1) 3M tekk Protection 6297 Mold and Lead Paint Removal Respirator 6297PA1

    *2) 3M tekk Protection Mold and Lead Paint Removal Respirator 62093HA1

    *3) 20 3M Cool Flow N95s 8511

    *4) Honeywell North P100 Valved Disposable Respirator (two)

    Source:

    https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.wisn.com/amp/article/milwaukee-part-of-dine-in-ban-for-10-cities-and-municipalities-in-milwaukee-county/31685914

     

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Tue, Mar 17, 2020 - 1:11pm

    Reply to #48

    dtrammel

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: May 03 2011

    Posts: 698

    1+

    My Hope Is Afridev

    If you’re with the 20-30% that hasn’t been infected, is it because you didn’t get in contact with the infection, or is it because your bodies defenses are able to avoid infection?

    My hope is I dodge the bullet until they get a vaccine honestly, or my naturally bubbly and winning personality so wins over Covid19 that it only gives me a minor case of it, lol.

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Tue, Mar 17, 2020 - 1:12pm

    #73
    mai16

    mai16

    Status: Member

    Joined: Mar 17 2020

    Posts: 2

    Some cities in Germany stopped testing for the virus

    I have only links to german sites, but they are saying that they have no ressources (personal etc) to test anymore. They say that is makes no diference because the treat only severe cases anyway. I think this is importand to know when seeing numbers from Germany:

    https://www.wz.de/nrw/duesseldorf/coronavirus-duesseldorf-will-nicht-mehr-alle-verdachtsfaelle-testen_aid-49589647
    https://www.wetterauer-zeitung.de/wetterau/friedberg-ort28695/coronavirus-wetteraukreis-testet-nicht-mehr-13601784.html

    mai

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Tue, Mar 17, 2020 - 1:24pm

    #74
    Ejohnson

    Ejohnson

    Status: Member

    Joined: Oct 26 2018

    Posts: 16

    Military in southern Germany

    To reinforce the points made above, the military is placing restrictions on its members for our own health, due to the close proximity we live/work in. “Force protection” if you will.

    in Germany, we are now confined to a 20km radius (exceptions for commute to work/medical appts). Working from home is in effect unless you need to physically be present for a task. If you live on base you are confined to the base. Screening questions are asked at the gate every time you come on base. We are not all being tested, the test kit shortage is universal, only if you trip a screening question. On base stores are reasonably well stocked, the defense commissary agency runs its own logistics system parallel to local structures. All other restrictions mirror the restrictions imposed by the German government on its own citizens.

    Demographically, the military is younger and generally more fit than the general population, so the hard part is getting people to care…

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Tue, Mar 17, 2020 - 1:27pm

    #75
    VeganDB12

    VeganDB12

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: Jul 18 2008

    Posts: 186

    today's stats on NY from Governor Cuomo

    I still think he is doing a great job cannot help it.  He is telling the truth.  More than many.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JQEN0F07xIY

    Cases: over 1700

    Peak cases: estimated to be in 45 days

    Hospital bed capacity: around 52000 (80 percent filled today)

    Range of beds needed at peak: 55000 to 110000 (remember the 52k are 80 percent full)

    They are talking about building new hospitals.  We will need 10’s of thousands of new beds in May.  Our hospitalization rate is around 20 percent (of people testing positive).   Anyone who questions the need to mitigate after seeing these numbers is deluded.  Even with everyone SIP as much as possible (and people are really doing it here, streets are quiet and roads are an easy drive) we have these numbers in the future to look forward to….they are asking nursing students, medical students and retired docs and nurses to come out and prepare to help.

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Tue, Mar 17, 2020 - 1:33pm

    Reply to #58
    km64

    km64

    Status: Member

    Joined: Feb 03 2020

    Posts: 77

    I’ve gotten emails like that for the last week from my banks, my doctor, my veterinarian, energy company and a few others.

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Tue, Mar 17, 2020 - 1:41pm

    Reply to #48
    km64

    km64

    Status: Member

    Joined: Feb 03 2020

    Posts: 77

    My hope is I dodge the bullet until they get a vaccine honestly, or my naturally bubbly and winning personality so wins over Covid19 that it only gives me a minor case of it, lol.

    Alternative, hang around Chuck Norris, he can kick any butt out there…

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Tue, Mar 17, 2020 - 1:47pm

    #76
    Sabemenos

    Sabemenos

    Status: Member

    Joined: Jan 30 2020

    Posts: 21

    How to get back to US during lockdown

    Anybody know who to call to help an American get out of a country when there’s a lockdown and all flights are cancelled?  My daughter is up in the Andes not due to come home for another week when out of the blue Bolivia’s case load went boom and the government announced a total lockdown with the airport to close on Thursday.  Is there a government agency who can help you get home?  When she went two weeks ago Bolivia was boasting it had zero cases

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Tue, Mar 17, 2020 - 1:53pm

    Reply to #62
    Janie-em

    Janie-em

    Status: Member

    Joined: Mar 05 2020

    Posts: 15

    Thanks thc0655, I agree with this assessment

    This is accurate, and speaks to what I experienced at my local San Diego hospital when I went for testing last week. I returned from Europe and a week later came down with severe bronchitis/pneumonia. I wrote about my attempt to get tested in the “Disruptions” post. It was ridiculous. The hospital were triaging those of us who were sick, in our cars, in front of, and blocking the Ambulance bay of the hospital. We were also blocking the exit lane out of the hospital parking lot. There was one triage nurse, and a P.A. for a long line of cars. It took them two hours to get to me, even though I was at the front of the line and blocking other cars. They said they often have a five hour wait in the line.

    Both the nurse and the P.A. who examined me had no eye protection. The nurse had a simple paper mask, which she pulled down to talk to me, the P.A. an N95 mask. I was coughing violently the entire time. The nurse handed me a pen to sign a document, and then put it back on her clip board. She didn’t have me use a tissue or gloves when I used the pen.

    They refused to test me because they said I’d been sick too long and no longer shedding enough virus to test. Yet when I looked at the notes later I realized the nurse had written the wrong dates of my symptom onset, so I was sick for a much more recent time, than they understood. I called my Primary doctor to try to correct the record and see if I should self isolate and they said they can’t tell anyone whether to self isolate or not and although they disagreed with the reasoning not to test me, the P.A. had already “made the call” and they wouldn’t do anything further.

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Tue, Mar 17, 2020 - 2:15pm

    #77
    amylav

    amylav

    Status: Member

    Joined: Sep 21 2008

    Posts: 4

    NYT Article: What I learned in avalanche school

    Hello from Pennsylvania. Although I’ve followed PP for quite awhile, this is my first time to post. I am retired from a non profit family center; my husband retired from local government. No cases in our county have been reported yet. Our adult children are living in other states and seem ok. Each of us are sheltering, each in place.
    I read this article a few months ago. Her reporting and style of writing/story telling stuck with me. Re-reading it in light of our global plight, “What I learned in avalanche school” could parallel some things I have learned here on PP and during my preparations and conversations with friends and family. I hope I copied and pasted it successfully. You may need to google it if not. I think and feel it’s worth the read.
    The work and thoughtfulness of Adam and Chris have been on my radar for some time. I am thankful for their and for posters’ insights and suggestions.

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Tue, Mar 17, 2020 - 2:20pm

    Reply to #64
    bethgreenwood

    bethgreenwood

    Status: Member

    Joined: May 19 2011

    Posts: 11

    Sand Puppy, you’re so right. While I am extremely thankful not to be working in acute care any more, my heart goes out to the hundreds of nurses I’ve precepted and mentored in my 50+ years of nursing. There’s a pain in my heart to know we’re going to lose some of them. As I described it to our CEO a few weeks ago, “I feel like I’m standing in snow up past my knees, seeing the avalanche coming and not able to do anything about it.”

    I’m not looking forward to what I expect will happen in the small mountain community where I live and the nearby slightly larger community where I am the nurse manager of a federally qualified health center (FQHC). For those of you who aren’t familiar with the acronym, FQHCs were created back in the 60s to serve the most vulnerable populations across the US. We have over 40% seniors in our population, many patients who have multiple medical problems and many others who have mental health issues as well. And Ma Nature is apparently not very happy with us because she just dumped over a foot of snow and we had to close the clinic for today and maybe tomorrow.

    We’re trying to figure out how to help our elders shelter in place now that they are snowbound as well as homebound. We’re running longer hours at the food closet, but these people can’t get to us now. Transportation is always an issue in our area – we don’t have buses, taxis, trains or any sort of public system. We need to make sure our patients have meds, food, heat – the logistics boggle the mind. We have people who live in cabins without heat and even a few in tents – at 3,500 feet in elevation. At least one family I know hauls their water from a stream in buckets.

    Luckily I have always been of the “be prepared” mindset and am a frequent visitor to PP, so I was able to get the conversation going early (to the point, I’m sure, some folks wished I would shut up about it, already!). I got the triage nurses checking for possible COVID-19 symptoms early, we revised our triage tool to make sure we answered all the right questions and every morning – and now sometimes at noon – the whole clinic huddles for updates, changes and planning. We stocked up on extra medications for our dispensing closet and made sure the oxygen tanks are all full. Everybody is doing extra cleaning before, during and after the workday.

    It’s a constant struggle. Do you insist staff wear masks all the time and use up valuable PPE? If not, how do we protect ourselves and our patients? How can we do telehealth or phone calls instead of face-to-face visits and how do we get paid (like most FQHCs, we run on a very tight budget)? Like hospitals, we are closely regulated – if we don’t color within the lines, they can shut us down. But difficult as our situation is, I can just barely imagine what it’s like in acute care – it’s more than 15 years since I was a director of nursing.

    Every time I talk to a patient, I have a tiny voice in the back of my mind: “Some won’t survive – will it be you I mourn?” On the other hand, at 71 I’m the oldest staff member, so maybe it’s me they’ll be mourning. It’s the hand we’re dealt – gotta play it with fingers crossed.

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Tue, Mar 17, 2020 - 2:26pm

    #78

    dtrammel

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: May 03 2011

    Posts: 698

    Fox News Tucker Carlson Interview

    Interesting piece, good read

    https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2020/03/tucker-carlson-on-how-he-brought-coronavirus-message-to-mar-a-lago

     

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Tue, Mar 17, 2020 - 2:26pm

    Reply to #77

    AKGrannyWGrit

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: Feb 06 2011

    Posts: 846

    What I Learned In Avalanche School

    Is this the right one?

    https://longform.org/posts/what-i-learned-in-avalanche-school

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Tue, Mar 17, 2020 - 2:37pm

    Reply to #73
    mai16

    mai16

    Status: Member

    Joined: Mar 17 2020

    Posts: 2

    This time a Swiss source about stop testing

    https://www.tagesanzeiger.ch/schweiz/standard/bund-sucht-nicht-mehr-alle-coronainfizierten/story/20389898

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Tue, Mar 17, 2020 - 2:51pm

    Reply to #8

    Taz Alloway

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: Feb 18 2010

    Posts: 464

    I think of the people lining up for those trial vaccine injections as ‘heroes’.

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Tue, Mar 17, 2020 - 2:53pm

    Reply to #68
    ao

    ao

    Status: Platinum Member

    Joined: Feb 04 2009

    Posts: 1243

    AK Granny, let's talk some more

    “This sounds cynical and does not show compassion for those who are frightened and struggling.”

    So it sounds cynical to you and you assume that it does not show compassion?  So in your mind expressing cynicism about the unsustainability of such government spending means I don’t have compassion?  Is that what you’re saying?  I just want to be clear here.

    “There you go again with the –  YOU.”

    “You” happens to be a pronoun that has a lot of uses but pronouns have become a PC minefield as of late.  There’s an agenda that goes beyond the obvious with that but it’s a whole different issue I don’t want to diverge into here.  I don’t know who Brene Brown is but I can guess.  No one attacked your character.  I was pointing out a repetitive personality pattern.  Character and personality are two separate things.  If you think my statement was designed to cause shame, I can’t question your perception but I can assure you that’s not the reality of it.  If I were to assume your Brene Brown’s position, could I construe that as you trying to shame me?  I don’t feel that way though and I’ve never been into playing the victim.  Victimology weakens one and never works to one’s benefit.

    “You misunderstand, I am not taking offense, I am stating an alternate viewpoint!  And that viewpoint is sometimes under represented here which tries to bring compassion and empathy to the forefront.”

    That appears to me like a valid statement on your part.  So, to set an example for me and others, how are you, in a real world, practical manner,  demonstrating your compassion and empathy?

    “Often the focus and discussion revolves around acquiring money.”

    Do you think the acquisition of money (or any other resource) for that matter precludes compassion and empathy?  I may be wrong here but you seem uncomfortable about the issue of acquiring money, like it’s a bad thing.  Do you have that belief?

    “So pointing out that the action of helping people in my mind is quite opposite from “the Everything for Everyone party”.”

    We differ here.  I don’t think they’re opposite.  I think they’re different, like apples and oranges (or in this case, nouns and verbs).  Do you have suggestions of personal examples of how you help people or plan to help people?  Also, I think that perhaps you took my attempt at humor a bit too seriously.

    “Are not alternate opinions a good thing?”

    Are you talking alternate opinions or different opinions.  Again, there’s a difference.  I don’t have problems with either, if it’s in the right context.

    Coming back to the question I posed in my previous post, do you think these actions by our government are sustainable?  That was the point of my cynical attempt at humor.

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Tue, Mar 17, 2020 - 3:04pm

    Reply to #77
    amylav

    amylav

    Status: Member

    Joined: Sep 21 2008

    Posts: 4

    Longform-of course!

    Yes. That is the article. I should have known Longform would have it.

    Thanks.

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Tue, Mar 17, 2020 - 3:26pm

    #79
    TXZ7

    TXZ7

    Status: Member

    Joined: Feb 04 2020

    Posts: 2

    Use 1 Ventilator to Ventilate FOUR patients at the same time

    Dr. Roger Seheult’s MedCram video from today had a really excellent link to a Youtube video on modifying a ventilator to vent 4 patients at once. The video appears credible and based on research simulation.  It also appears fairly easy to accomplish.   Imagine how many more people could get properly treated if hospitals learned this and implemented it!

    If you know medical staff or admin staff in hospitals, please share with them.

     

     

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Tue, Mar 17, 2020 - 3:29pm

    Reply to #77
    MarkM

    MarkM

    Status: Silver Member

    Joined: Jul 22 2008

    Posts: 379

    Dallas, TX

    Nine newly diagnosed today, bringing the total to 28.

    Of those 9, three were admitted to ICU. One in their 20s, one in their 30s, one in their 60s.

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Tue, Mar 17, 2020 - 3:34pm

    #80

    AKGrannyWGrit

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: Feb 06 2011

    Posts: 846

    Perception

    Coming back to the question I posed in my previous post, do you think these actions by our government are sustainable?  That was the point of my cynical attempt at humor.

    So my perception that your post was cynical was correct.

    The actions are as sustainable as a persons ability to purchase food with no job and no money.  Thats my point.

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Tue, Mar 17, 2020 - 3:40pm

    #81

    SagerXX

    Status: Gold Member

    Joined: Feb 11 2009

    Posts: 427

    How to really attack this...

    The balancing act between stopping transmission (lockdown) and crushing the economy (and the most economically vulnerable with it) is a predicament.  I don’t think there’s a win-win out there.

    But if we intend to limit the spread and hopefully save a few million lives, a serious lockdown needs to occur:  30 days at least?  But to get people through (who have no savings or financial wherewithal to survive a month+ until next paycheck) the gov has to pay people to stay home.  The gov needs to help small businesses survive (and low-interest loans won’t do it).  The gov needs to mobilize like it’s a war to distribute food to the folks on lockdown.

    Most people here will agree that the dollar’s toast eventually, so I don’t see the great harm in bringing that eventual date forward if it means we can weather this storm with tens of thousands of excess deaths as opposed to millions.  We can all look back and say “that damn greenback gave its life to save grammaw.”  Nobler than what it’s going to croak of in due course of time.

    Order a 45-day lockdown effective Friday.  Get money into people’s accounts asap.  $2k per adult per month, at least, for the next 2 months.  Suspend mortgages (and rents and credit payments) for 60 days.  Find a number that works to sustain most small businesses, and mail the owners a check to cover the next 60 days.

    Assuming a 45-day lockdown smooshes that curve down to an acceptable-ish level, we can re-boot the BAU economy over the following 2 weeks and get people earning paychecks before the 60-day period runs out (on rent/mortgage/cc suspension).

    We all know they’re going to throw HUNDREDS OF BILLIONS at the airlines, shale, hospitality, etc. industries.  What’s another couple hundy to look after the human citizens?

    VIVA — Sager

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Tue, Mar 17, 2020 - 3:44pm

    Reply to #70
    Orangedem

    Orangedem

    Status: Member

    Joined: Aug 30 2008

    Posts: 5

    1+

    No shortage of pharmaceutical supplies???

    the President doesn’t believe there will be shortages of pharmaceutical supplies or raw materials from China as they have “every incentive” to produce them;

    I call BS. I haven’t been able to refill my hypertension meds for a month. My GP switched me to another med, and the local pharmacy is “out of stock.” I’m in VA.

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Tue, Mar 17, 2020 - 4:03pm

    Reply to #76
    phoenixl

    phoenixl

    Status: Member

    Joined: Nov 01 2015

    Posts: 24

    1+

    Sabemenos she needs the American consulate

    Maybe even on the web you can find out the phone number of the American Consulate down there and give it to her so she can contact them. It is their job to protect Americans in the country and they have their own access to planes to get her out, I bet.

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Tue, Mar 17, 2020 - 4:12pm

    Reply to #64
    Lnorris

    Lnorris

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: Mar 28 2011

    Posts: 86

    1+

    I work in acute care in NJ

    I share your discouragement Sand Puppy. At least 4 departments who stock fluid shield masks have been broken into and cleaned out of their supply.  Our stock is so bad that the front line HCW’s have been told not to wear masks in the hallways. Now they tell us fluid shield masks are acceptable in CoVid positive rooms except where procedures that might cause aerosols would occur.  We will all be exposed and roll the dice on our survival. Our health care system is saddled with the boot of government regulations that make being nimble impossible in times like these. God bless and be safe!

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Tue, Mar 17, 2020 - 4:13pm

    Reply to #76
    km64

    km64

    Status: Member

    Joined: Feb 03 2020

    Posts: 77

    1+

    This would be my first place to check…

    https://bo.usembassy.gov/covid-19-information-2/

    https://bo.usembassy.gov/u-s-citizen-services/

    U.S. Embassy La Paz
    Avenida Arce 2780
    Casilla 425
    La Paz, Bolivia
    Phone: (591) 2-216-8000
    Fax: (591) 2-216-8111

    At this time, this is what their website down there says, can change any day tho.

    Event: The government of Bolivia has announced enhanced screening measures to reduce the spread of COVID-19.

    These measures include:

    • The suspension of classes at schools and universities through March 31, 2020.

    • The suspension of direct flights to and from Europe beginning Saturday, March 14, 2020.

    • Prohibition of mass public events of over 1,000 people.

    • Controls on the commerce of medical supplies.

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Tue, Mar 17, 2020 - 4:17pm

    Reply to #70
    km64

    km64

    Status: Member

    Joined: Feb 03 2020

    Posts: 77

    Had same thing happen to me

    Had the same thing happen to me years ago when they switched out my diabetes medication.

    The change occurred because the FDA pulled the drug I was on off the market. Naturally, they did this without much prior planning, so there were supply disruptions.  Nobody told the makers of the other equivalent medication, hey, we’re gonna pull this, you might want to anticipate increased demand.

    Don’t know what the case is with your particular medication, but it’s something to keep in mind.

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Tue, Mar 17, 2020 - 4:19pm

    #82
    km64

    km64

    Status: Member

    Joined: Feb 03 2020

    Posts: 77

    Pragmatic Business Practices

    Here’s part of the email I just got from Monro Auto Service…

    We know that in this time of crisis, it is critical that we make it possible for you to get where you need to go and to help family and friends. We are here to keep you mobile during the national coronavirus (COVID-19) emergency.

    For your safety and protection, and that of our other guests and store teammates, we are taking the necessary precautions to ensure a safe environment inside our store, including enhanced cleaning of the guest lounge, restroom, service and counter areas, as well as high-traffic, high-touch surfaces. We are providing hand sanitizer as well as cleaning vehicle door handles and steering wheels as we enter and exit the cars. Our team is practicing social distancing and asks that our guests do the same where practical.

    Despite school closing and other disruptions, our team is doing its best to maintain business as usual:

    • PLEASE NOTE OUR TEMPORARY HOURS. We now open 30 minutes later and close one hour earlier than posted.
    • This gives our team adequate time to ensure a healthy environment when you visit.
    • The temporary schedule also facilitates full staff coverage during open hours.
    • As the situation evolves, additional changes in hours may be required.
    • For the latest hours, please call your local store or visit us online.
    • When you drop off your vehicle, please check with the manager on duty about that day’s work schedule and closing time.
    • Currently, we are able to source the parts we need. If there are disruptions in our supply chain in the near future, we will let you know.

    We apologize for the inconvenience of the shorter hours. We appreciate your understanding.

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Tue, Mar 17, 2020 - 4:28pm

    Reply to #76
    Chris Martenson

    Chris Martenson

    Status: Platinum Member

    Joined: Jun 07 2007

    Posts: 5031

    RE: Stuck in Bolivia

    Anybody know who to call to help an American get out of a country when there’s a lockdown and all flights are cancelled?  My daughter is up in the Andes not due to come home for another week when out of the blue Bolivia’s case load went boom and the government announced a total lockdown with the airport to close on Thursday.  Is there a government agency who can help you get home?  When she went two weeks ago Bolivia was boasting it had zero cases

    I’m sorry, you must be worried sick.  Is there any chance for her to get to the airport before Thursday?  Whatever it takes, whatever it costs, you should get her on a plane out of there.

    If that failed, try the US consulate.  Go there, and ride it out at the US consulate.

    If that fails, then…I don’t know…take a land route to a neighboring country that still has air service?

    That’s what I’d be trying if it was my kid.  In that order.

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Tue, Mar 17, 2020 - 4:28pm

    #83

    AKGrannyWGrit

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: Feb 06 2011

    Posts: 846

    SagerXX - How To Attack This

    Amen! You are right on.

    AKGranny

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Tue, Mar 17, 2020 - 5:10pm

    #84

    blackeagle

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: May 16 2013

    Posts: 246

    2+

    How To Attack This

    This is what the Canadian federal and the Quebec provincial governments are doing:

    People with low revenues or the ones that are not eligible for unemployment, that are asked to self quarantine will receive 576$ per week, up to 4 weeks, to stay home. they won’t be obliged to get out and work to bring bread home. This measure helps them and everyone else.

    This measure should cost a mere 150M$. Not a perfect measure, but at least this is an insentive to respect the self-quarantine period.

    Ottawa will make available 10B$ to help small businesses. Quebec should do the same (10-11B$). To follow…

    On the health front, hospitals have been ordered to free beds. This means that most elective surgeries will be canceled (I expect this for my cataract surgery scheduled in two weeks – They told me that I have until the day before to pay. i.e: they don’t want to lose time refunding people is things are canceled. Understandable).

    One comment about vacuum bags to make masks: these bags are not designed for “human consumption” like regular masks and furnace filters. I am wondering if they contain some fibers that pose no issue when used in a vacuum but may be problematic when used right on one’s face?

    Addendum: Just read that the Manitoba province is considering closing schools until September.

    Addendum 2: banks will be asked to be more flexible for mortgage payments (a few  months late won’t bring people to foreclosure). A 6B$ has been allocated to banks to continue giving mortgages. This, I don’t get it: why continue lend money if people cannot pay?

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Tue, Mar 17, 2020 - 6:02pm

    Reply to #80
    ao

    ao

    Status: Platinum Member

    Joined: Feb 04 2009

    Posts: 1243

    AK Granny, and how about the rest of your perception and the questions?

    Is that it?  I was hoping you’d have more to share but I’d understand if you chose not to.

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Tue, Mar 17, 2020 - 6:18pm

    #85
    ao

    ao

    Status: Platinum Member

    Joined: Feb 04 2009

    Posts: 1243

    the problem is, there is no free lunch

    As I’ve already stated, I’d rather see the money go to people than the banks and other corporate entities.

    But let’s say folks don’t have to pay their mortgages.  Do you think the banks are not going to lay off employees to meet their bottom lines?

    Let’s say we have a moratorium on rent.  Do you think landlords don’t have expenses and there won’t be consequences for them if their bottom line can’t be met?

    Let’s say we put a moratorium on paying medical bills, whether to hospitals or doctors.  What happens if hospitals can’t make their bottom line?  They shut down.  We’ve already seen that all over the country and when it accelerates, now where will people go if they’re serious or critical?  If you don’t pay doctors, do you not think they have bills as well?

    Any way you position this, someone is going to lose.  There’ll be a need for economic triage just like medical triage.

    Here’s a suggestion.  I notice most government workers (federal, state, county, or municipal) have great pensions, great benefits packages, and liveable to wonderful wages.  How about they all chip in and tithe (i.e. contribute 10%) of their salaries to small businesses, for example, to keep them alive during this crisis.  Many salaried government workers don’t even have to show up but will still get paid.  Small businesses are the lifeblood of the nation and are going to get slaughtered in this debacle.  Most people who aren’t self employed don’t seem to realize that while they pay 6.2% towards their Social Security and their employer pays the other 6.2%, the self-employed small business owner pays the entire 12.4%.  So how about it?

    You think government workers will chip in and help out the private sector folks who have a lot more on the line and are a lot more at risk? After all, we call them public servants.

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Tue, Mar 17, 2020 - 7:37pm

    Reply to #85
    yogmonster

    yogmonster

    Status: Member

    Joined: Apr 01 2013

    Posts: 40

    1+

    No sure I completely agree

    I was hoping this time around, the ones that blew it, and took all the bailouts last time would have to pay their fair share.

    I gave 10% of salary last time, plus work furloughs. Which haven’t been recovered yet.  Although I’m sure I will give again.

    Yes I am a sworn civil servant. So according to the order passed down yesterday it appears I am an “essential infrastructure” employee.  So I will be out in the public, until further notice.  Luckily wife, and kids get to stay home.  Hopefully I don’t bring it home. Unfortunately my benefit package doesn’t give me time off during an emergency.

    There now I feel better. Just needed to whine a little.

     

     

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Tue, Mar 17, 2020 - 8:03pm

    Reply to #76
    Sabemenos

    Sabemenos

    Status: Member

    Joined: Jan 30 2020

    Posts: 21

    2+

    Thanks!

    Looks like that is going to work.  They’re getting her out in the nick of time!  Whew!

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Tue, Mar 17, 2020 - 8:49pm

    #86

    AKGrannyWGrit

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: Feb 06 2011

    Posts: 846

    bethgreenwood

    I very much enjoyed reading your post # 64 which was a response to sand puppy.  Sharing your thoughts and experiences about working in the medical field is interesting.  I hope you will post again soon.

    AKGranny

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Tue, Mar 17, 2020 - 10:13pm

    #87

    Quercus bicolor

    Status: Silver Member

    Joined: Mar 19 2008

    Posts: 320

    3+

    Paper: Impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to reduce COVID- 19 mortality and healthcare demand

    I know there’s a link to this very helpful paper somewhere up this thread, but I can’t find it.  Read it carefully as it gives much insight into which policies might be most helpful going forward. Note in particular, this quote from the top of page 7:

    In total, in an unmitigated epidemic, we would predict approximately 510,000 deaths in GB and 2.2 million in the US, not accounting for the potential negative effects of health systems being overwhelmed on mortality. (Empasis mine)

    So total deaths could be higher by perhaps a factor or 2 or 3 than the numbers cited judging from Italy’s experience.

    Here is a brief summary.  The first three points below are from the paper, the last two are mine:

    1. If it’s too late to suppress the pandemic, choose just the right combination of NPIs to keep ICU demand at or below capacity.
    2. Choose the most effective NPIs with that are easiest to maintain over time in terms of minimal disruption and damage to the economy.  Otherwise, people will stop cooperating or it will become necessary to loosen restrictions to prevent catastrophic economic consequences that could be more deadly than the virus.
    3. Toggling NPIs on and off based on weekly ICU admissions could be helpful for calibrating the response.
    4. Ramp up ICU capacity as quickly as possible in order to allow gradual relaxation of NPIs in order to minimize economic damage.
    5. Strong emphasis on better treatment to minimize duration of hospital stays and need for ICU beds would have a similar benefit.

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Wed, Mar 18, 2020 - 3:29am

    #88
    Chris Martenson

    Chris Martenson

    Status: Platinum Member

    Joined: Jun 07 2007

    Posts: 5031

    16+

    The "Thumb's Up" Button works again!

    I just want to announce that the vote button works again.  Whew!  I was really missing it all these weeks.

    Please use it liberally.  Anything you find useful in some way, give that person’s comment a thumbs up.

    Great conversations everyone.  I find it useful – captivating even –  to read your stories, ideas, and experiences.

    Keep them coming!

     

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Wed, Mar 18, 2020 - 7:33am

    Reply to #32
    Mark Dixon

    Mark Dixon

    Status: Member

    Joined: Feb 25 2020

    Posts: 1

    Any research about MERV13 cloth traditionally used in furnace filters? Better or worse than vacuum cleaner bags? Or even higher MERV levels?

    Login or Register to post comments

  • Fri, Mar 20, 2020 - 9:14am

    Reply to #50

    Afridev

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: Oct 11 2013

    Posts: 154

    DaveDD and modelling

    Hi Dave,

    Have been fiddling around a bit but am getting to my limits. What I ultimately am looking for is, at local level, being able to predict how many new cases would be generated per pay, how many beds are needed for suspected cases/ confirmed cases, and getting a better view of how this epidemic could develop over time (I’m preparing an open letter for the local ‘authorities’ to show what we might be facing, and how to better prepare for it.

    I see 3 approaches to getting to a curve that can be used for local scenario planning for the epidemic curve:

    1. A formula is developed that provides the form of the curve. As the curve is only exponential in the beginning, it quickly gets beyond my ‘kitchen sink’ maths. I also wonder if this approach allows for easy adapting (e.g. change R0, different treatment protocols). Possibility to tweak while data comes in.
    2. Using Excel, calculate day-by-day, the situation, and let the curve form itself by this. We have quite some data to inform us in that. I think this form is easiest (for me at least) to tweak parametres to form different scenarios (e.g. attack rates, R0), but not possible to change the form of the graph on-the-fly. . One part will push the number of cases higher (existing infections that transmit using an R0 of around 2-3 (though this will change with types of measures taken), one part will suppress (a reducing pool of people who are susceptible to infection). There are some shortcuts taken here (e.g. you’re just looking at number of new cases, not total present in a population) and it is based on assumptions, but you have to start somewhere…
    3. The last option is just take a paper with a raster, overlay a curve that starts off with a doubling every 6 days, and counts number of squares under the curve. More intuitive, but no ability to easily tweak with new data that comes in.

    I have started to work on option 2, but nothing ready yet, a bit a two-steps-forward-one-step-back process. Will try to work further on it this WE. Will share when I have something that kind of works…

     

    Login or Register to post comments

Login or Register to post comments