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    Coronavirus Pandemic: The Next Two Weeks Are Critical

    Will infections ex-China remain muted, or explode higher? We'll soon find out.
    by Adam Taggart

    Tuesday, February 18, 2020, 4:45 PM

While China remains largely in lockdown, covid-19 cases in the rest of the world are at a key juncture.

To-date, confirmed cases have been lower than feared. Though increasingly, we’re suspecting that’s due to inadequate testing & reporting.

And the cases we *do* know of (now at ~1,000) appear to be growing at an exponential rate. So the next two weeks will be critical in telling the tale. We’ll soon know whether the spread is indeed slower than initially feared, or we’ll start to see huge increases in the number of infected ex-China.

Meanwhile, the authorities around the world, including the WHO and CDC, continue to downplay the threat. But at the same time, governments are busy mobilizing massive containment efforts. Their words do not match their actions. Is there more we’re not being told?

As we’ve said, time will soon tell. Keep up your efforts to remain informed, as good information is scarce right now.

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123 Comments

  • Tue, Feb 18, 2020 - 5:02pm

    #1

    Montana Native

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    Diamond Princess vs the World

    The massive amount of cases on the cruise ship show plainly that this coronavirus can spread like wildfire. I’m very curious as to how the cases all over the world are so muted, yet the Diamond Princess was a Petri dish full of agar. I suspect the virus is replicating at the rate the cruise ship experienced in multiple locals presently. But until we know….pure speculation. Is there silence from authorities or is Covid-19 an Asian problem? So curious…

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  • Tue, Feb 18, 2020 - 5:10pm

    #2
    Desogames

    Desogames

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    Repost

    Since the info thread seems to move to whatever article is current, i’ll repost what others have posted here at the top:

    That’d be the reason for the diamond princess being so infectious. It probably gives us the best estimation of an R0 yet – what the disease does in total amateur hour (so effectively no protection).

    EDIT: And JUST to make matters worse; some fresh info:

    https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/japan-confirms-88-more-cases-aboard-diamond-princess-one-day-quarantine-set-end

    First 500 people are set to be released in 15 minutes from this post!

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  • Tue, Feb 18, 2020 - 5:16pm

    #3
    dryam2000

    dryam2000

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    Infants, antibodies, and why Co-vid causes its severe damage

    I have to believe infants are spared by Co-vid because the bad symptoms are from the exuberant immune system response & not from the virus itself.  Infants do not have much in the way of active immunity, and have very weak immune systems..  Breast feeding provides passive immunity by the transferring of antibodies from the mother to the baby.  This is why breast feeding is recommended; to help fight off infections that the baby’s immature immune system has yet to encounter. Passive immunity also take place when patients get plasma (antibodies) from others who have recovered from Co-vid.  The severe & deadly part of this illness is the cytokine storm that attacks the lungs as well as possibly the heart.  That storm comes from the over exuberant immune system response.  That’s probably going to be the target rich area for medicines & treatments for Co-vid.

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  • Tue, Feb 18, 2020 - 5:23pm

    #4
    Mareta

    Mareta

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    Japan and South Korea...

    Japan – Releasing 500 folks into city and then back to their countries… I hope they are being put into isolation rooms the virus will likely be in some of them just undetected!!!

    South Korea – 15 new cases from 31 taking it to 46! thats an explosive jump… well detected. I hope they have good contact tracing and know where these folks got it from, or we’re in the potential abyss again!

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  • Tue, Feb 18, 2020 - 5:50pm

    #5
    kunga

    kunga

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    Getting hard to post comments

    Site flipping me to other posts.

    I just tried to like a post and got flipped into my microsoft email site.

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  • Tue, Feb 18, 2020 - 6:30pm

    #6
    nordicjack

    nordicjack

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    What a Joke - the dangerous misinformation is coming from the official sites

    Like  I quoted of the CDC last week. It is one thing to say we dont know but to make statements that its spread by droplets in close contact with in 6 ft and there is no evidence and such of spreading on objects.  This is absurd deficient and reckless and clearly just lies and misinformation.   The italian site looks like a clone of the CDC.  and the WHO is being just as blatantly as dumb.  It seems North Korea , has its shit together..  why not the US?

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  • Tue, Feb 18, 2020 - 6:39pm

    #7
    nordicjack

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    re: kids spared

    I am thinking the serious illness part of this could from a presensitization to this from a previous infection.    This would make it less likely that those very young would have a significant response.

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  • Tue, Feb 18, 2020 - 7:04pm

    #8
    Tom Sammy

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    Long calm for US

    China was first….Japan and Singapore a month later have low/moderate case counts (Assuming higher interaction rates / travel with China.)

    I would guess here in US we will be at least a month after Japan/Singapore to reach over 50 cases.  Not to mention per video topic that identification will be delayed due to poor testing procedure.    I think folks in US might get lulled by a long calm thinking we’re good.  If we get it here I’m thinking the big news starts end of March or later.

     

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  • Tue, Feb 18, 2020 - 7:13pm

    #9
    nedyne

    nedyne

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    The Chinese study

    I was hoping for a more in depth discussion about the big study coming out of China, “Vital Surveillances: The Epidemiological Characteristics of an Outbreak of 2019 Novel Coronavirus Diseases (COVID-19)” (it’s cached here if the official source takes too long to load). The video mentions a NYT article that talks about the study, but there’s a lot more to it. You can use estimates of the case fatality rates for different age groups, and there’s a lot to discuss regarding biases in the study.

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  • Tue, Feb 18, 2020 - 7:14pm

    Reply to #8
    Mareta

    Mareta

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    Containment

    Not sure how this thing will be contained unless all countries adopt appropriate measures to reduce the r0 to under 1. Singapore style measures seem pretty decent with 2 degrees of separation tracing. Financial measures to pay and incentivize folks with cold/flu symptoms to get tested at clinics to proactively seek diagnosis also appropriate for the asymptomatic nature of this disease…. without detection, the numbers reported are kind of not too meaningful to be honest.

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  • Tue, Feb 18, 2020 - 7:35pm

    #10

    dtrammel

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    What Info Would A Doctor Need? - Q? for Medical Professionals

    Like Chris, I believe we have maybe 2-3 weeks before this gets ugly.

    Its a given that most of us are going to have to care for ourselves at home when this gets serious. There may come a time though, no matter how prepared we are, that someone with us (or ourselves) become so sick that seeking professional medical care is called for.

    When that happens, you are almost certainly going to end up at a hospital that is at the breaking point, with few resources and personnel. Maybe the government sets us some online resources to field calls before you go to the hospital, but I doubt it.

    I’m thinking the more information you can provide that first nurse or doctor who sees you, the more likely they can make a good diagnosis in the shortest amount of time and keep you from siting there waiting.

    I assume a form with basic patient info would be helpful. Things like age, sex, home address and SS# and basic descriptions (so they can identify you). Medical history of past illnesses or injuries, any medication they are on, either prescription or over the counter, Insurance contact info if they have it. Anything else?

    So what illness specific information would be important to have documented?

    I have (or will have soon) a thermometer, oximeter, and blood pressure cuff.

    I figure that I should establish a base line over a couple of days, then at the first sign I should be recording temperature, blood oxygen level and blood pressure. How often would I want to take these?

    Any other symptoms I should note? Fatigue, shortness of breath, nausea, chills or hot flashes first noticed?

    I’m pretty good with making forms (have a good set of graphics programs on my pc). If I can get some guidance I can make one people here can download and print to fill in as they home treat and then take with them to a hospital.

    I also think having a medical care directive and a health care power of attorney made up and signed for each person would be useful.

    If you end up at a hospital, having one would give you a little more legal right to be there while treatment is going on, and might prevent the hospital from shipping the ill person off to a quarantine camp if they appear too sick to make a decision for themselves. Having someone fit, who can say “I can treat them at home!” might get them to release the person to you just to get you out of their hair.

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  • Tue, Feb 18, 2020 - 7:43pm

    #11
    Tom Sammy

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    West Chester NY quarantines

    Makes you wonder, Are these people even being tested?

    Coronavirus Update: More Than 2 Dozen People Quarantined In Westchester County As A Precaution

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  • Tue, Feb 18, 2020 - 7:45pm

    #12
    Ejh237

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    Elderberry Syrup and Asthma

    I thought I would share something POSITIVE that has come out of the last 3 1/2 weeks. (has it really only been 3 1/2 weeks? wow!)

    We have been drinking Chris’ Elderberry syrup since 1/28, and Cindy told me a few days ago that her Asthma symptoms and med requirements have been down for the last 2 weeks! That good news, along with our huge order of meds from India have us feeling better about the meds aspect. And, her breathing is better! 🙂

    We’ve ordered another few lbs of the Elderberries Chris liked to, and will be picking up an Elderberry bush from the tree farm here shortly.

    Best to all,

    Eric and Cindy

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  • Tue, Feb 18, 2020 - 7:52pm

    #13
    Sparky1

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    Brits David & Sally Abel quarantined aboard the Diamond Princess tested positive for Covid-2019 today.

    The Abel’s have posted videos regularly from their quarantine suite on the Diamond Princess and now have thousands of followers worldwide. Today they received test results that confirmed that both David and Sally are infected with Covid-19. Here’s an update provided by their son, Steve; as well as a video posted by the Abels yesterday.

    The Abels are both elderly, but David has some health issues that make him at high risk of serious outcomes from the virus and/or his comorbidities. There are no definitive evacuation plans of UK citizens (whether well or infected) from the ship.

    The Abels are an endearing couple. They worried that they might be separated for the first time in their 50 years of marriage. At least it looks like they’ll be together, location yet TBD. :’-|    Very sad. I hope they recover their health and sense of normalcy back in the UK soon.

    My Quarantined Parents Now Have Coronavirus

    https://youtu.be/XikyFBYwLbA

    ‘Absolute balls’: David and Sally Abel deny feeling unwell over coronavirus (recorded yesterday before the received they positive diagnosis)

    https://youtu.be/bM8EH85tLk0

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  • Tue, Feb 18, 2020 - 7:55pm

    #14
    pat the rat

    pat the rat

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    chance

    I have seen were there is now bird flu virus in china, any chance that bird flu virus and corona virus become a new virus? My wife says that my mind can be strange at times.

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  • Tue, Feb 18, 2020 - 8:38pm

    #15

    dtrammel

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    Yes Pat

    Your wife is correct, your mind is strange.

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  • Tue, Feb 18, 2020 - 8:41pm

    #16
    Nordic_Mist

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    Singapore Update

    I previously posted a comment stating that I believed that in Singapore we are past the peak of infections. That is being borne out by the facts at the present time with a lower number being infected each day than the number being released from hospital following multiple negative tests to ensure that they are no longer carriers of the virus. I have to say that Singapore has done a fantastic job in controlling the virus and in tracing any close contacts of those infected so it is improbable that there are more than a very few cases that have not been detected in the country.

    https://www.straitstimes.com/singapore/health/coronavirus-4-new-cases-including-3-linked-to-grace-assembly-of-god-church-21-cases?cx_testId=20&cx_testVariant=cx_1&cx_artPos=2#cxrecs_s

    “At the same time, five coronavirus patients have been discharged, including the one-year-old boy evacuated from Wuhan that was announced on Monday. To date, 29 people have been discharged.

    The baby was evacuated on Feb 9. He had been warded in an isolation room since Feb 13 and had only mild symptoms. He was confirmed on Feb 16, but cleared of infection on Feb 18.

    He is now well, but has been put back on quarantine with his parents.”

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  • Tue, Feb 18, 2020 - 8:47pm

    #17
    BillL

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    Washington State...

    https://www.naturalnews.com/2020-02-18-why-are-712-people-in-washington-state-monitored-for-coronavirus.html

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  • Tue, Feb 18, 2020 - 8:53pm

    Reply to #11
    Sparky1

    Sparky1

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    Re: West Chester NY quarantine testing; only if symptomatic for Covid-2019

    According to the news report you linked, no testing unless the quarantined become symptomatic for Covid-2019.

    “County officials say doctors are able to video conference with patients around the clock while monitoring their conditions. “You’re watching to see if people develop symptoms of the disease, and at that point, you would then test them if they did,” Amler said.”

    The report didn’t state the number of days these 26 individuals would be quarantined.

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  • Tue, Feb 18, 2020 - 8:55pm

    Reply to #12
    BillL

    BillL

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    Elderberries...

    They grow wild in much of the US.  They don’t ripen until late summer  in most of those places but are very prolific growers.  They are very easy to identify.  They are darker purple in the eastern US and in the west, more of a med. blue color.

    A quick web check will reveal whether you have them or not.

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  • Tue, Feb 18, 2020 - 9:12pm

    #18
    yagasjai

    yagasjai

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    Thank you for covering details on aerosol transmission!

    Thanks for going into more detail on that, Chris! I really appreciate it!

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  • Tue, Feb 18, 2020 - 9:13pm

    #19
    aggrivated

    aggrivated

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    The Big Takeaway

    Arthur Schopenhauer’s explanation of how truth is accepted has been playing out in my family this last few weeks.  From “you are(roll of eyes) SO obsessed with this virus thing”, to “Dad, just be quiet-that is just depressing-I don’t want to hear another word”, to “so, I’m taking some extra Vitamin D now, what do you hear new out there?”

    1.Ridiculed, 2. Violently opposed, ………………………2.9………………..3. Accepted as truth.

    I would not suggest for a minute that my family is much past 2.0 as a whole, but their curiosity towards me and acceptance of me as a crazy old man will make it easier for them to reach 3.o. The cognitive dissonance they are experiencing in the meantime is well worth it.

    Chris’s comments on this subject are a hard push for us not to sit on our derrières and fumigate on this subject ad infinitum, but to jump up and get ready. Many of this tribe have already made their preparations,   some have not.  Buck your own internal conflicts and make some concrete moves to 3.o in actions, not just words.

    The armed high jacking of a toilet paper laden truck in Hong Kong is a vivid reminder of where things can go in a jiffy.

    As an example, I was surprised at how easy it was for our physician to prescribe some extra medication for us. Since it was from the doctor’s office the insurance worked. That was the Rubicon for my spouse.

    Best of preps to you all.

    Thank you Chris and Adam.

    Aggrivated as usual

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  • Tue, Feb 18, 2020 - 9:56pm

    #20
    Sparky1

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    WHO, Covid-2019: "Rights, Roles and Responsibilities of Health Care Workers"

    For what its worth, perhaps of special interest to the many PP members that are health workers, and others:

    CORONAVIRUS DISEASE (COVID-19) OUTBREAK: RIGHTS, ROLES AND RESPONSIBILITIES OF HEALTH WORKERS, INCLUDING KEY CONSIDERATIONS FOR OCCUPATIONAL SAFETY AND HEALTH

    https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/who-rights-roles-respon-hw-covid-19.pdf?sfvrsn=bcabd401_0

    Something must have got lost in the translation as these guidelines did not prevent those very unfortunate 1,700 Chinese health workers from being infected with Covid-2019.

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  • Tue, Feb 18, 2020 - 10:09pm

    Reply to #17
    kunga

    kunga

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    Seattle

    Washington State is having 712 potential carriers on self monitoring.  I live rural and order quite a bit from Amazon.  That will stop this week and all packages loaded into back of pickup, with gloved hands.  Everything Lysol sprayed before bringing into house.

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  • Tue, Feb 18, 2020 - 10:15pm

    Reply to #9
    nedyne

    nedyne

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    Flaw in the Chinese study's CFRs

    I was hoping for a more in depth discussion about the big study coming out of China, “Vital Surveillances: The Epidemiological Characteristics of an Outbreak of 2019 Novel Coronavirus Diseases (COVID-19)” (it’s cached here if the official source takes too long to load).

    Edit: Most of this post is wrong. In a new post below I explain why.

     

    I read the Chinese study I mentioned above and while useful, there’s something that seems very troubling. (I recommend you open the PDF and follow my argument looking at the figures I mention.) In Figure 1, when they break down by date of onset (defined for confirmed cases as date on which patients selfreported the start of either fever or cough), it’s readily apparent that the disease, for those who eventually end up dying from it, usually takes close to a month from symptom onset to death. The problem is, most of the sample had not reached the month before the study’s data cut-off date (Feb 11th).

    It’s reasonable to expect that many who had a date of onset on Jan 11th or later will soon die from the virus or died after the cut-off date for the study’s data, since the reported case fatality rate (CFR) drops precipitously as the time shortens from date of symptom onset to study cut-off. The 2.3% overall CFR is mainly (86%) composed of cases with symptom onset on Jan 21st or later, and that group as a whole has an average CFR of 1.55% [(494+102)/(26468+12030)].

    If one ignores the big bias created by the fact that many mild or asymptomatic cases probably go undiagnosed, the true CFR for cases that do get confirmed is probably closer to 15.46% [(15+102)/(104+653)], which is the average for cases with onset of symptoms by Jan 10th.

    Curiously, there’s no mention of this issue in the article!

    One potential explanation could have to do with the fact that the outbreak was confined to Hubei province for the first ~23 days, and Hubei’s health care system collapsed, so maybe the reported CFR drops as onsets become more recent because that’s when more cases happen outside of Hubei (where hospitals are not overrun to the same degree). However, this theory is not supported by the evidence. See figure 3-B (epidemiological curve for confirmed cases in all of China), and figure 4-A (epidemiological curve for confirmed cases outside Hubei). By simply eyeballing the figures it’s clear that this theory cannot contribute to any substantial degree to the phenomenon described above.

    In trying to estimate the expected CFR to my age group, 30-39, I take the reported CFR (18/7600, ~0.2%), multiply by average CFR of those who had onset by Jan 10th (15.46%), and divide by CFR reported for all confirmed cases (1023/44672, ~2.3%), arriving at an estimated 1.6%, up from the reported 0.2% for my age group. That figure also needs to be adjusted by the fact that I’m male, which leaves me at 2.0% CFR. That’s an approximate CFR in China for a male my age group, conditional on being confirmed infected, but since many mild and asymptomatic cases probably go untested, the real CFR is probably substantially lower. By how much, that’s anyone’s guess. Another big wildcard is how much of this CFR is due to the fact that the health care system collapsed in Hubei. (I’m not adjusting by the fact that I have no health conditions because there’s no way to tell apart the influence of age on health conditions, and I presume that most of the effect of health conditions is already baked into the age data.)

     

    Another interesting data point. It seems that of those cases that ended up being confirmed, most cases probably tended to be confirmed within 12 days after symptom onset:

    “Although for confirmed cases onset of illness peaked around January 23–27, diagnosis of infection by nucleic acid testing of throat swabs did not peak until February 4.”

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  • Tue, Feb 18, 2020 - 10:28pm

    Reply to #10
    Myrto Ashe

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    Good idea to keep written notes to bring to hospital

    Re: having someone who can nurse you at home. I don’t think they would release you at home if your O2 sat was under 93%, which is the Chinese cutoff for initiating testing. I need to study that chart more carefully but once you are in the hospital (presumably because you are too sick to stay home), and test positive, I don’t see how they would send you home to potentially infect someone else. And I think we’ve all agreed that we shouldn’t cram urgent care and ERs with people who are just unwell but not too sick to stay home.

    That said, I also don’t think the details of whether you have cough, or fever, or nausea, or headache are the most important. From what I know of the virus so far, as a doctor I would want to know if there is a known exposure and when that was, when the first symptoms started, and whether there is presently shortness of breath. Also if there is a history of underlying health problems and as you mentioned, the medication list. Rarely are supplements used in hospitals in my experience.

    Name, DOB, SSN, and who to call (ideally one person to call with updates), advanced directives as to resuscitation and what measures are acceptable, medical power of attorney (there are forms that can be filled out online).

    Also, religion, and allergies, especially to medication, but also to food.

    Don’t leave any valuables with the patient; in my experience, hospitals can’t keep track of these in the best of times.

    I haven’t been working in hospitals since 2008, so others please chime in.

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  • Tue, Feb 18, 2020 - 10:29pm

    Reply to #3
    Nairobi

    Nairobi

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    Our defences are now our downfall?

    You are likely correct in that assessment, dryam2000. That might partly explain the videos of middle aged people in China dropping like birds in the street or inexplicably kneeling over and dying.

    Their immune systems are backfiring. Total failure. It is an abrupt sudden death without any reference point familiar to us.

    Who ever heard of that kind of an immune system response other than cases of bee stings where patients instantly develop anaphylactic shock and suffocate?

    But kids don’t get this because they do not yet have an immune response. So it’s like a disease that does not exist for them.

    So maybe don’t bother with the vitamins or vaccinations? Wow! Anything that makes you stronger will lead to your death now?

    What evil madman dreamed up this disease!!

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  • Tue, Feb 18, 2020 - 10:49pm

    #21
    Truth9834

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    As previously discussed/reported, in a paper by the Chinese CCDC (released on February 17) the Chinese Journal of Epidemiology found that the risk of death increases the older you are, as follows:

    COVID-19 Fatality Rate by AGE:

    Age                                                   Fatality Rate
    80+                                               14.8%
    70-79 years old                         8.0%
    60-69 years old                         3.6%
    50-59 years old                         1.3%
    40-49 years old                         0.4%
    30-39 years old                         0.2%
    20-29 years old                         0.2%
    10-19 years old                         0.2%
    0-9 years old                             no fatalities

    Does anyone have this “age” breakdown between men and women? Also between men who smoke and those who do not smoke?  Thanks!

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  • Tue, Feb 18, 2020 - 11:01pm

    Reply to #3
    Myrto Ashe

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    Why kids are doing better than the elderly

    I’m still mulling over this. Kids may have weaker immune systems (infants do, not so sure about older kids) but the immune system doesn’t get stronger and stronger as we age. What does get more common is cardiovascular disease, which appears to play a role in causing death for COVID-19. Male gender also is correlated with cardiovascular disease, but mainly before 55 or 60, as with menopause, women start to catch up. Blood lead levels are also correlated with cardiovascular disease, which could be a risk factor for people living in polluted places. It’s interesting that prior lung disease is not as strong a factor as cardiovascular disease and diabetes. Anyways, air pollution worsens cardiovascular (and pulmonary) issues. Diabetes, also a predictor of cardiovascular disease, comes with significant inflammation, which could make an aberrant immune response more likely.

    I understand that the study analysis has already taken a multiplicity of risk factors into account, but many 40 and 50 year olds walking around don’t know what degree of cardiovascular disease they may have. It’s certainly more than a child’s.

    One thing about the “exuberant” immune response is that it’s not necessarily a sign of a great immune system. The system is designed to start up in an exponential fashion (cells calling other cells with cytokines), but also to turn itself off, otherwise any infection would lead to death. So in my mind, ARDS is related to an aberrant immune response -something that went wrong, not the immune system doing its normal job.

    Which is why I think that measures that help “right-size” the immune system are needed. We don’t have medications for that, but lifestyle approaches have that effect, and perhaps some supplements may help.

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  • Tue, Feb 18, 2020 - 11:09pm

    Reply to #3
    Myrto Ashe

    Myrto Ashe

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    It's not killing the healthiest people

    It’s killing people over 80 years old much more than other ages, so it’s definitely not killing the healthiest. Whether vitamins or vaccinations make you healthier I won’t tackle here. Vaccinations give you antibodies that can protect you against a disease. Will they do anything against another disease? There may be studies on that.

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  • Tue, Feb 18, 2020 - 11:11pm

    Reply to #1
    lambsubstitute

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    9+

    Hearing things UK government is not saying

    I am hearing reports from health care professionals, that cases have been confirmed in uk hospitals over the weekend and are being treated as confirmed coronavirus. The sources are trust worthy close family friends, so i have good reason to trust them. They are also directly treating these people in full PPE gear.

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  • Tue, Feb 18, 2020 - 11:23pm

    Reply to #21
    Nairobi

    Nairobi

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: Feb 05 2020

    Posts: 289

    5+

    Just to be clear, nobody really believes those CCDC figures.

    I do not believe the Chinese CCDC numbers for one second based on what we have learned over the past few weeks.

    Since when did we start accepting that 2.4% was an honest CFR mortality figure? If that is true then why are 700 million people still under quarantine and lockdown?

    If this illness really only kills old, sick people then why are entire cities full of healthy able-bodied people shut down?

    Why are police in China forcefully rounding up so many people who appear to be young or at most early-middle aged?

    Why did Wuhan buy 40 portable incinerators with a theoretical capacity to burn 3000 bodies per day (I did not read that statistic anywhere btw. It is just based on rough math given the incinerators supposedly can burn 5000 tonnes of material daily).

    It is lies, lies and more damned lies from authorities everywhere. Not just in China but here at home too.

    I figure insurance companies are behind it. LOL! Once this thing was declared a pandemic your life insurance became worthless. Same as a war or deaths caused by civil unrest.

    I was reading Bill Blaine yesterday and he remarked that a huge baby boom is coming to China as a result of this quarantine. Probably right.

    We can now probably redraw the population pyramid of China with our newfound data. Most of those pesky seniors will be out of the way. And large numbers of middle aged men will be buried while millions of fresh born babies will be added at the bottom of the pyramid.

    Its a demographic miracle!

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  • Tue, Feb 18, 2020 - 11:47pm

    Reply to #3
    Nairobi

    Nairobi

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: Feb 05 2020

    Posts: 289

    6+

    Let's give this story more time to develop

    Myrto, you are accepting the Chinese data at face value that “its killing people over 80 years much more than other people”.

    I do not believe the numbers. They are BSing us the same way they BS their own people in China.

    What about those Doctors who died? They were not elderly. And recall the videos of medical staff collapsing to the floor suddenly. They did not appear elderly either.

    They almost had me there for a minute.

    But then I snapped out of the trance. Those mortality figures are “goal-seeked” as Zerohedge likes to say. They are part truth and part propaganda.

    This is how you build a narrative so the readers cannot easily discern between facts and fiction when you combine them together.

    Let’s keep our heads screwed on. The Chinese propaganda machine is so effective lately it has our own governments entranced.

    Its also why that idiot from Ethiopia in charge of the World Health Organization actually convinced his own countries airline to keep flying non-stop direct daily flights from China directly into the heart of Addis Ababa.

    That is called an agenda if you don’t know it.

     

     

     

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  • Wed, Feb 19, 2020 - 1:43am

    Reply to #21
    kunga

    kunga

    Status: Member

    Joined: Feb 26 2017

    Posts: 251

    1+

    Life Insurance

    Nairobi, don’t go scaring people about their life insurance.  There are very few exclusions in policies now days.  It would be wise for a concerned policy holder to check with their vendor.  Often, risky situations can be handled with an increase of the premium.

    My thought had been a possible bankruptcy of the vendor if too many claims are made.

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  • Wed, Feb 19, 2020 - 2:06am

    #22
    Sabemenos

    Sabemenos

    Status: Member

    Joined: Jan 30 2020

    Posts: 21

    4+

    Chloroquine concerns

    It’s great that China has had some success but not everybody can take choloroquine phosphate.  I for one, can’t, and For many other elderly people like me it is contraindicated:

    heart failure and arrhythmia

    hearing and vision impairments

    leukopenia-low white count.   Which is concerning because one of the presenting features of Covid19 is leukopenia.
    I’m glad that the young are spared but it looks like us Boomers are in for some serious trouble

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  • Wed, Feb 19, 2020 - 2:51am

    #23

    suziegruber

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: Dec 03 2008

    Posts: 180

    12+

    wildcrafting elderberries - choose carefully!

    Yes, elderberries can be found growing wild in a lot of places. However, proceed with caution. There are many varieties of elder plants so unless you are skilled at knowing which elder you have found, stick to elderberries purchased from reliable sources. Two reasons: not all elder plants are medicinal and the ornamentals will do no good as medicine.  Second, some are poisonous! I was taught to always look for black elder (Sambucus nigra). Red is dead is what I was taught.

    This is also important if you are planting elder bushes. Make sure you are getting a medicinal variety. Crimson Sage Nursery in Orleans, CA is a great source of all kinds of medicinal plants and they ship! I have both the medicinal and an ornamental variety in my garden. Buhner’s book Herbal Antivirals has a lot to say about elder varieities.

    On a side note, I have chosen to go on my vacation because I will be with a very small number of people out in nature for two weeks and I feel confident I can travel and get home before this explodes in the US. However, I am traveling with an unusual level of prep.

    I want to send a big thank you to Chris and Adam and this entire community for coming together to help us address this and make informed choices. See you in the other side of my trip!

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  • Wed, Feb 19, 2020 - 4:26am

    #24
    pat the rat

    pat the rat

    Status: Member

    Joined: Nov 01 2011

    Posts: 141

    2+

    simple math

    let do some simple math. lets start with 74,000 people having the covid 19 virus.There about 1,700 hundred new infection every day.If you were to add this up for the next 16 days you get 101,200 total. There are 2,006 deaths so far,if you where to add 132 deaths for the next 16 days you get 4,118. Now divide the deaths by total infections and you get 4.07%. Numbers tell a story and this not a good number, if the death rate and new infection stay the same China can’t hide the truth munch longer.

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  • Wed, Feb 19, 2020 - 4:35am

    Reply to #10
    VeganDB12

    VeganDB12

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: Jul 18 2008

    Posts: 186

    2+

    dtrammel your list is pretty complete!

    With your usual thoroughness. Perhaps the primary care folks have more to add but it is a good list. I think it’s most important to check vitals when people aren’t feeling well  (feeling feverish, short of breath) and at least a few times a day if they are ill.  ALL symptoms should be reported.  I agree with prior posts indicating that knowing your baseline numbers is important (before you get sick).  The change in numbers can be just as important as the current numbers.

    2 items to add are recent travel history and exposure to high risk individuals (people returning from Asia, known cases, contact with sick people.)  No one has to name names but it is relevant.

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  • Wed, Feb 19, 2020 - 4:45am

    #25
    brushhog

    brushhog

    Status: Member

    Joined: Oct 06 2015

    Posts: 72

    3+

    Could be the disaster of the century

    If the numbers coming out of China are even remotely accurate, this might be the only infectious disease in the history of the world where the more people contract it, the fewer people they pass it on to.

    It seems impossible for me to believe that the number of cases are rising, but the number of new cases is steady almost everyday. Using common sense and our understanding of exponential growth, the number of new cases already has to be in the millions. We need only look at the response from the Chinese, and governments around the world. Would they be going through all of this if the number of cases was so low? And, if the death rate from this thing was so low?

    No way. None of what they are saying adds up.

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  • Wed, Feb 19, 2020 - 4:45am

    #26

    suziegruber

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: Dec 03 2008

    Posts: 180

    2+

    we could make a medical form and share it here

    Dtrammel, that’s a great idea re: medical form. I wonder if someone could build a pdf and share it. I would do Fitbit I am about to be offline for 10 days.

    Chris and Adam, is there a place on the site we can put it? We could even include blank advance directive forms for people to download and complete. Note that those may vary by country based on local law.

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  • Wed, Feb 19, 2020 - 4:53am

    #27
    Sparky1

    Sparky1

    Status: Member

    Joined: Jul 21 2016

    Posts: 586

    1+

    Coronavirus 2019 Clinical Trials, databases; WHO research "road map"

    Coronavirus cure: WHO says eradicating virus is a top priority as clinical trials kick off

    https://www.express.co.uk/news/science/1244140/Coronavirus-cure-WHO-eradicate-virus-China-clinal-trials-virus-latest-coronavirus-news

    From these two databases, it looks like the majority of the clinical trials research is taking place in China or France (likely in cooperation with Chinese researchers). There’s some redundancy between the two databases’ listings.

    For those that want to delve into this:

    NIH/NLM, https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/results?cond=Corona+virus+2019&term=&cntry=&state=&city=&dist=&Search=Search

    WHO International Clinical Trials Registry Program, http://apps.who.int/trialsearch/AdvSearch.aspx?SearchTermStat=117&ReturnUrl=%7e%2fListBy.aspx%3fTypeListing%3d0

    WHO Coronavirus 2019 Research Roadmap:  https://www.who.int/blueprint/priority-diseases/key-action/Global_Research_Forum_FINAL_VERSION_for_web_14_feb_2020.pdf?ua=1

     

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  • Wed, Feb 19, 2020 - 5:23am

    #28
    Coppertonic

    Coppertonic

    Status: Member

    Joined: Jan 27 2020

    Posts: 2

    4+

    WSJ article about self-quarantine in the US

    https://www.wsj.com/articles/coronavirus-has-u-s-cities-stretching-to-monitor-self-quarantined-americans-11582108203

    Found it interesting some of the details (and lack of details) about quarantine vs “strict” quarantine, for example:

    “Sometimes those who are self-quarantining are told they may go outside and exercise if no one is nearby, or grocery shop.” Not sure how grocery shopping is considered self-quarantine…especially when we know there can be a long asymptomatic incubation period where the person is contagious.

    And then later the article said, “For people under strict quarantine or in isolation after developing symptoms, public-health workers sometimes need to provide more intense services, including shopping for food and medication.”

    Do we know how long the tests are taking now?

     

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  • Wed, Feb 19, 2020 - 5:43am

    #29
    LabCat

    LabCat

    Status: Member

    Joined: Jan 28 2020

    Posts: 36

    3+

    Prescription Meds

    I’ve been fighting heart disease since I was 39.

    I’m 52 now with a pacemaker and a mechanical heart valve.

    I rely on beta blockers, calcium channel blockers and warfarin.

    The warfarin is a dire necessity for the rest of my life.

    I guess I’ll be asking my cardiologist to write bulk scripts?

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  • Wed, Feb 19, 2020 - 5:47am

    Reply to #28
    kunga

    kunga

    Status: Member

    Joined: Feb 26 2017

    Posts: 251

    1+

    WSJ article, quarantine

    “…after developing symptoms, public-health workers sometimes need to provide more intense services, including shopping …”

    Good luck with that.  Who will pay? You are on your own. Keep on prepping.

    The people in Wuhan who have been welded in their homes, will anyone remember them, or conveniently slip through the cracks?

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  • Wed, Feb 19, 2020 - 6:00am

    Reply to #29
    Keesa Robinson

    Keesa Robinson

    Status: Member

    Joined: Feb 19 2020

    Posts: 3

    2+

    Hey my mom takes that same drug. Check with your doctor *disclaimer *she was told she could take low dose aspirin in a pinch. She also got generic but prefers name brand and with a few mix ups she now has a back stock.

     

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  • Wed, Feb 19, 2020 - 6:32am

    #30
    Sparky1

    Sparky1

    Status: Member

    Joined: Jul 21 2016

    Posts: 586

    Slideshow: Covid-2019 Global Research and Innovation Forum (Feb. 2020)

    Meeting 2/11-12/2020 sponsored by the World Health Organization (WHO) and the Global Research Collaboration for Infectious Disease Preparedness (GRoPID-R)

    Meeting purpose: “To enable identification of key knowledge gaps and research priorities, and thereby accelerate the generation of critical scientific information and the most needed medical products to contribute to the control the 2019-nCoV emergency.”
    Attendees:  “researchers from multiple specialties, funders, public health, regulatory experts, ethicists”

    https://www.who.int/blueprint/priority-diseases/key-action/Overview_of_SoA_and_outline_key_knowledge_gaps.pdf?ua=1

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  • Wed, Feb 19, 2020 - 6:40am

    Reply to #21
    BillL

    BillL

    Status: Member

    Joined: Jan 15 2020

    Posts: 115

    Many of your concern’s addressed in this discussion.

    It seems that the Chinese gub is categorizing deaths in a myriad of ways…I can’t remember exactly which but that a couple thou may be flu related, another couple thou respiratory related, thousands more due to pneumonia, etc.  NOT all related to 19.

    Imagine that, a gubmint not telling the truth because they don’t want to alarm the snowflakes world wide that Dancing with the stars will not be seen tonight or that social media will be censored to only things that they “like”.

    Just ignore jsnip and listen to Clif.  He has sources, friends, etc. inside China as he used the ancient methods to relieve cancer from his body.  I’m not sure if he is cured or not.  IMO, everything he says is thought out and reasoned.  It is 95 minutes long and addresses objectively who, what, why, etc. of 19 and its appearance on our doorstep.

    The discussion is 3 regular Americans who scour the web for a solution to our current societal problems.  Whatever you want to hear is on the web, it is up to you to determine what is beneficial to you.

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  • Wed, Feb 19, 2020 - 7:09am

    Reply to #19
    BillL

    BillL

    Status: Member

    Joined: Jan 15 2020

    Posts: 115

    Extra meds...

    Why wouldn’t it be easier to get more?

    Seriously.  Lot’s of meds sales lobbyists cruising in and out to doctors office with “a new pill for your ills” on a regular basis.  They make huge livings of hawking pills for a living.  Big Pharma/Medical industrial complex often pays for docs continuing ed, vaca’s, seminars…whatever you’d like to call it.

    Sending all our pharmaceutical jobs/production to China was a tremendous benefit for the drug companies.  Labor costs crashed and profits skyrocketed!

    Love that Globalism!

    Who can we thank for that?  Well, there are 435  and 100 and 1 that I can think of that did it a long time ago.  But hey, for decades, they’ve all been looking out for us.  😉

    In some states now, your pharmacist can write you a script without your/a doc I believe.  Sorry no link, but I personally know one and they can.

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  • Wed, Feb 19, 2020 - 7:21am

    Reply to #29
    nedyne

    nedyne

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: Jan 14 2012

    Posts: 68

    2+

    Heart disease

    LabCat, you say you’ve been fighting heart disease for years. You may want to consider going plant-based. Have you read about Dr. Dean Ornish’es studies? A (close to) plant-based diet is the only diet that has ever been shown in clinical trials to not only stop the progression of heart disease, but to actually reverse it. Here’s his TED talk. Also highly recommended is the evidence-based site NutritionFacts: introduction.

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  • Wed, Feb 19, 2020 - 7:29am

    Reply to #26

    dtrammel

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: May 03 2011

    Posts: 698

    3+

    Medical Forms

    Dtrammel, that’s a great idea re: medical form. I wonder if someone could build a pdf and share it. I would do Fitbit I am about to be offline for 10 days.

    Chris and Adam, is there a place on the site we can put it? We could even include blank advance directive forms for people to download and complete. Note that those may vary by country based on local law.

    Suzie I should be able to have home patient care forms, as well as a general copy of a medical power of attorney and a medical directive, done by the weekend. I’ll put them in a pdf, I’ll have to see where I can put them for download. Chris and Adam might run into some legal issues if they host it on Peak Prosperity. I can probably put it on Google Docs.

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  • Wed, Feb 19, 2020 - 7:29am

    Reply to #21
    aggrivated

    aggrivated

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: Sep 22 2010

    Posts: 468

    Fatality rate or case fatality rate?

    Is the Chinese chart on fatalities based on known (diagnosed) cases, or on the total population?

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  • Wed, Feb 19, 2020 - 7:29am

    #31
    Myrto Ashe

    Myrto Ashe

    Status: Member

    Joined: Jan 25 2010

    Posts: 92

    5+

    Affordable prescription meds

    For those who would like to purchase in advance a few months of their medications, and whose insurance won’t cover additional medications, and you’re thinking of going out of pocket, look up your medication on GoodRX online and see which pharmacy may have a good price for it. You can ask your prescriber to send a prescription to that particular pharmacy.

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  • Wed, Feb 19, 2020 - 7:50am

    Reply to #21
    nedyne

    nedyne

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: Jan 14 2012

    Posts: 68

    Re: Just to be clear, nobody really believes those CCDC figures.

    Since when did we start accepting that 2.4% was an honest CFR mortality figure? If that is true then why are 700 million people still under quarantine and lockdown?

    If this illness really only kills old, sick people then why are entire cities full of healthy able-bodied people shut down?

    I think the Chinese CFR numbers look plausible if you run the adjustments I did. I arrived at a 2.0% CFR for males aged 30-39, and you get a roughly similar CFR for males aged 20-29 too. It’s a pretty high case fatality rate, and that’s just for those young age groups. Added to the fact that having your health care system collapse country-wide and remain that way for months is a highly undesirable outcome, and if these numbers were approximately right, it would still make sense for the Chinese to take the draconian measures they’ve taken.

    I’m sure the total number of cases is way too low, but I’m taking these adjusted CFRs at face value since they are all we’ve got. I cannot rule out fake data, but I have less reason to distrust them than I do total number of cases.

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  • Wed, Feb 19, 2020 - 7:52am

    Reply to #21
    nedyne

    nedyne

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: Jan 14 2012

    Posts: 68

    Re:

    Is the Chinese chart on fatalities based on known (diagnosed) cases, or on the total population?

    Those case fatality rates are based on confirmed cases only, not total population.

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  • Wed, Feb 19, 2020 - 7:57am

    #32
    isjrb029

    isjrb029

    Status: Member

    Joined: Jan 16 2009

    Posts: 11

    5+

    A couple of things

    I found this link yesterday after reading about advanced directives here.

    https://www.aarp.org/caregiving/financial-legal/free-printable-advance-directives/

    Some thoughts on self home care. There has been a big push on tele-medicine from companies I I believe the plan is to us it in this case to keep people out of the doc offices and hospitals. I keep reading that people are being sent home to self quarantine. I too have had no real luck getting family to look at this. I finally just stopped talking about it.  The eye rolls always but this weekend I gave my sig other a rundown on an article from ZH and received a well you have my eye open what do we need to do. It lasted about 24 hours at best then we were back to can we talk about something else. Sometimes you just have to take what you can when you can and move on. I find most people want to live in a fantasy world and that can not be changed. So I keep doing what I need to thanks to this sites information. I start here each day with

    Desiderata

    GO PLACIDLY amid the noise and the haste, and remember what peace there may be in silence. As far as possible, without surrender, be on good terms with all persons.

    Speak your truth quietly and clearly; and listen to others, even to the dull and the ignorant; they too have their story.

     

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  • Wed, Feb 19, 2020 - 7:57am

    #33
    Green Acres

    Green Acres

    Status: Member

    Joined: Dec 04 2010

    Posts: 8

    1+

    Some thoughts

    I think it’s a great suggestion to ensure you have your medicine in reserve just in case there are significant problems with the supply chain.

    I also think that the US numbers are far too low.  The most reliable state IMHO in terms of COVID-19 reporting seems to be Singapore.  So Singapore reported 84 as of this morning, and 84 / Singapore’s population of 5.6M (drop the millions to make this easier) or 84 / 5.6 = 15, and 15 * 330 (population of the US, agains millions dropped) = 4,950 or roughly 5,000 people, most of whom are fine, perhaps 500 (10%) to 1,000 (20%) in the hospital or ICUs somewhere all over the country being treated for the “flu” mostly because they do not fit the CDC test criterion, or if they did, nasal swabs said “negative”.

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  • Wed, Feb 19, 2020 - 8:08am

    #34
    ezlxq1949

    ezlxq1949

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: Apr 29 2009

    Posts: 334

    2+

    More on medical forms

    A good idea to create one or some. Yes, think of differing national requirements. For example, Australia does not use social security numbers, but citizens and residents are issued with Medicare numbers to provide access to the national healthcare system. This is crucial.

    On reflection, it may be better for the different national PPers to create their own forms. A pooling of ideas could be beneficial, however.

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  • Wed, Feb 19, 2020 - 8:51am

    #35
    richcabot

    richcabot

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: Apr 05 2011

    Posts: 228

    2+

    It's now "breaking news" that a trade show is still on

    NAB Show Still on Amid Coronavirus Scare

    https://www.tvtechnology.com/news/nab-show-still-on-amid-coronavirus-scare

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  • Wed, Feb 19, 2020 - 9:57am

    Reply to #26
    km64

    km64

    Status: Member

    Joined: Feb 03 2020

    Posts: 77

    5+

    Forms at your service

    Different states may have different requirements for Medical Power of Attorney, so here is a resource for y’all.

    https://eforms.com/power-of-attorney/medical/

    As for Medical History, here is one from Walgreens…

    https://www.walgreens.com/images/IN2097/Health%20History%20Form.pdf

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  • Wed, Feb 19, 2020 - 10:05am

    Reply to #21
    km64

    km64

    Status: Member

    Joined: Feb 03 2020

    Posts: 77

    5+

    death rate

    Not that I believe the numbers coming out of China, but even a death rate for 2.4% should be worrying to them.

    You stated 700 million are being quarantined… TWICE the number of people in the United States and HALF their population.

    Let’s be optimistic and say only 1/2 of them catch COVID19

    That’s 350 million.

    And “only” 2.4% of them end up dying of this.

    That’s still 8.4 million people dead.

    So, I can see why they would be doing their level best effort with propaganda to keep their population from panicking.

    Because the last thing they can afford right now is a few hundred million people panicking.

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  • Wed, Feb 19, 2020 - 10:24am

    #36
    Nate

    Nate

    Status: Silver Member

    Joined: May 05 2009

    Posts: 370

    4+

    Chinese supply chain disruption

    https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/supply%20chains%20at%20risk.jpg?itok=KUiRhFH4

    https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/which-supply-chains-are-most-risk-answer-one-chart

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  • Wed, Feb 19, 2020 - 10:29am

    Reply to #34
    km64

    km64

    Status: Member

    Joined: Feb 03 2020

    Posts: 77

    1+

    Medical history forms can be pretty generic. Having it filled out and available is the important part.

    As for strategy for finding forms the following are the tags I used to locate what I’ve found so far.  Below you will find forms from the Department of Health – Australia.

    “{country} medical history form”

    “{country} medical power of attorney”

    https://www1.health.gov.au/internet/main/publishing.nsf/Content/mbsprimarycare_ATSI_mbsha_resource_kit

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  • Wed, Feb 19, 2020 - 10:51am

    #37

    AKGrannyWGrit

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: Feb 06 2011

    Posts: 844

    4+

    Gaslighting

    Hmmmm, are we experiencing gaslighting on a national scale? An International scale?

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  • Wed, Feb 19, 2020 - 10:58am

    #38

    saxplayer00o1

    Status: Silver Member

    Joined: Jul 30 2009

    Posts: 3127

    2+

    World Bank pandemic bond under pressure as coronavirus spreads

    World Bank pandemic bond under pressure as coronavirus spreads

    With the coronavirus outbreak having infected more than 74,000 people and claimed more than 2,000 lives, prices for the IBRD pandemic bond with the highest investment risk – the Class B notes – have come under increasing pressure.

    PRICE SLIDE

    Losses to investors depend on the number of deaths and geographical spread. In the most extreme case, a global outbreak – defined as more than 2,500 deaths across more than eight countries with a certain number of fatalities in each country – will wipe out the bondholder’s entire investment.

    Offer prices quoted by one broker have slipped as low as 45 cents in the dollar, while another is quoting 62.5 cents, market sources said. In the midst of the 2018 Ebola outbreak the bond traded at a little more than 70 cents.

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  • Wed, Feb 19, 2020 - 10:59am

    Reply to #6

    Bheithir

    Status: Member

    Joined: Nov 02 2008

    Posts: 20

    1+

    Really?

    You think NK has is together? They lie worse than China. I bet they have hundreds of cases if they are letting people live. More like if you get the disease you are shot.

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  • Wed, Feb 19, 2020 - 11:15am

    Reply to #37
    Lnorris

    Lnorris

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: Mar 28 2011

    Posts: 86

    4+

    Shaming people into submission

    is a way to control the masses. I don’t trust what the governments are saying or doing. There are too many inconsistencies.

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  • Wed, Feb 19, 2020 - 11:50am

    #39
    Matties

    Matties

    Status: Member

    Joined: Jan 30 2020

    Posts: 160

    2+

    Censuur

    曾錚 Jennifer Zeng
    @jenniferatntd
    3. This is Wen Zhao’s channel: youtube.com/channel/UCtAIP… The pictures show how many of his programs are restricted. Another friend, Jiang Feng (youtube.com/channel/UCa6ER…) encounters the same problem and is losing 90% of his income.
    Quote Tweet
    @realDonaldTrump @VPPressSec @SecPompeo @EsperDoD: I hope to draw your attention to this: @YouTube has been heavily censoring programs/news/comments about #COVID19. Many such programs are not allowed to have ad. income. My friend Wen Zhao has 463K subscribers…

     

    Image

    censuur

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  • Wed, Feb 19, 2020 - 11:54am

    #40
    AC16

    AC16

    Status: Member

    Joined: Feb 19 2020

    Posts: 3

    8+

    I really don’t think there is much use at all trying to calculate any kind of CFR. The numbers from China are quite obviously understated and incorrect. Deaths could be far more than we know about which boosts the CFR rate right up. Also this myth that it’s over 80’s is disproven by the younger medical staff etc dying. Or do we just conveniently ignore that?

    It is also far too early to even begin calculating a CFR for those cases outside of China. Yes there is a current CFR rate but it is anything but accurate. We are only just starting to see people die outside of China. It does take time for this to happen. Consider an incubation of 24 days for an extreme case, then another 1-3 weeks for deterioration and then resulting death. You’re talking up to a period of over 6 weeks from infection to death.

    Can we also please start to discuss the real deadly aspect to this virus? One which means CFR can’t be determined for some time yet. Reinfections.

    Reports are surfacing suggesting that this virus is a whole load more deadly when you contract the virus for a second time. It is apparent that people can be reinfected almost instantly after recovering from their first infection. Does this happen with the flu? People get the flu and then get struck down with it a few weeks after?

    Apparently reinfections can cause a different immune response. An over reaction of the immune system if you will. This is causing the immune system to basically attack the body from within, resulting in a cytokine storm and eventual death. Cardiac arrest is also cited. This would explain the videos which have leaked showing people collapsing to the floor etc. They are not saying this happens with every reinfection, just that this scenario becomes far more likely. This is all to do with ACE2 and Angiotensin 1 and 2. Look it up. Studies are not peer reviewed yet.

    This means that everyone can reinfect everyone so the virus just keeps circulating. Multiple infections results in higher chance of complication and/or death. That would explain why it appears that China are dealing with far more deaths than they are letting on, and why crematoriums are running 24/7. If people can just keep reinfecting others then that also explains the welding of doors and locking people inside their homes. It also explains the constant spraying of the streets with disinfectant.

    Why not allow those who’ve recovered to go back out into the world and work etc? They still need protecting from the virus. If they go back to their families then they could be reinfected right? What’s the solution? That’s more people coming to hospital as recoveries would be returning. And if they know a reinfection more likely results in hospitalisation then what’s the solution? Instead of having families etc reinfecting each other and causing each other to be hospitalised, then lock them inside their houses to continue to reinfect each other and either die or survive. Although surely they’d starve to death anyway.

    It was the second wave of the Spanish Flu which caused the most deaths, and the reported cytokine storms etc.  This then killed the younger generations too.

    China’s drastic measures, to me, aren’t in line with a virus with 80% + mild cases and a 2% CFR. I mean they could be if it is very quick to spread as health systems soon become overwhelmed. But do we believe the number of deaths being reported? Do we believe it’s only the elderly and weak? Or is something more sinister going on? Reinfections causing cytokine storms, cardiac arrests etc? Does that fall more in line with what we’re seeing from leaked content? Just a few questions for us to be asking ourselves I think.

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  • Wed, Feb 19, 2020 - 12:02pm

    #41
    Matties

    Matties

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    WHO or Who cares ?

    I guess this is a clever joke. The Chinese characters read ” #WHO cares about you”. If you read the English sentence below the Chinese as “Who cares”, it means one thing. You can also regard the “WHO CARES” as the English translation of the Chinese above it. Get it?
    Image

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  • Wed, Feb 19, 2020 - 12:09pm

    #42
    Dutchnewsjunkie

    Dutchnewsjunkie

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    Translation of Dutch CDC equivalent Q&A page

    After listening to last episode and seeing how the Italian CDC equivalent handled the situation in their Q&A page it got me curious on what the Dutch site had to offer. So long story short I translated about 5 pages of the Q&A and I must say it has a lot of valuable information. I didn’t translate the last couple bits tho because I was already busy for almost 3 hours and the last parts were mostly info about the situation in China and the symptoms all of which is frequently talked about already in previous video’s.

    There’s especially good information on how the Westerdam cruise ship is handled now that many passengers got of it before it was known that someone on the ship was infected.

    I figured this might be good content for a Coronavirus update video so if there’s anyone who can make Chris read this please do.

    Also my English translations probably aren’t perfect but i tried.

    https://wetransfer.com/downloads/d4a2c6945d287da8290c58f59a9b5cc520200219200747/7be3c9f127d7f385bff584e57c74e84520200219200809/3d17ac

     

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  • Wed, Feb 19, 2020 - 12:31pm

    #43
    Mater

    Mater

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    Virus impact on children

    I was really happy to hear Chris mention the limited impact observed in the data so far for children, especially young children. As I’ve thought about that in the past day, I remembered seeing a video a week or so ago purporting to show children who died from the virus. The video was paired with an article that was discussing the shortage of body bags in Wuhan. It claimed that multiple young children were having to share a single body bag. The video showed 2 Asian looking children who were clearly dead, but not disfigured at all, being placed in the same  body bag by 2 adults wearing full PPE of the style we have been seeing used in China right now. If I recall correctly the children were wearing fairly normal looking clothes, not medical gowns or comfortable looking clothes that you might wear when sick or admitted to a Western hospital.

    Does anyone else remember seeing something like that? Is it possible that children are being tested in low numbers and thus aren’t showing up in the stats but are being impacted similarly to adults? How are children viewed in Chinese culture compared to Western culture? Are there any biases there that could lead to a reluctance to test children? It really is strange that this wouldn’t be affecting them since many illnesses have an out-sized impact on the old and young.

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  • Wed, Feb 19, 2020 - 12:32pm

    #44
    Gus Spreen

    Gus Spreen

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    Dr. John C. and Dr. Roger S. on Case Fatality Rates

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9BYaywITXYk

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Rn5rlBmcxpU

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1-ZGJz5ci1Q

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  • Wed, Feb 19, 2020 - 12:50pm

    #45

    westcoastjan

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: Jun 04 2012

    Posts: 325

    1+

    BC update noon Feb 19

    B.C.’s first confirmed COVID-19 patient has fully recovered, say health officials

    First identified case fully cured – hoping this is full transparency and accurate… if so some welcomed positive news.

    Jan

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  • Wed, Feb 19, 2020 - 12:55pm

    Reply to #29

    KugsCheese

    Status: Gold Member

    Joined: Jan 01 2010

    Posts: 893

    @LabRat

    Have you had a Heart Scan Calcium Score?   See Wheat Belly author Dr William Davis (Cardiologist) and Undoctored.

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  • Wed, Feb 19, 2020 - 12:56pm

    #46

    westcoastjan

    Status: Bronze Member

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    3+

    but.... on the downside

    Local Victoria BC news poll:

    🙁

     

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  • Wed, Feb 19, 2020 - 1:10pm

    #47
    Tom Sammy

    Tom Sammy

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    CDC - New Hong Kong Travel Advice

    Only the finest guidance from the CDC, I guess that’s why they make the big bucks.  😅

    • Travelers to Hong Kong should avoid contact with sick people, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said, and regularly wash their hands to prevent contracting the coronavirus.

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  • Wed, Feb 19, 2020 - 1:21pm

    #48
    Matties

    Matties

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    Virus impact on children

    We don’t have reliable data. Cruise ships are going to tell a lot, but they are mostly inhabited by older people.

    I share your worries.

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  • Wed, Feb 19, 2020 - 1:23pm

    Reply to #40
    Tom Sammy

    Tom Sammy

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    Re: reinfections

    AC16, agree the re-infection risk and severity could be a huge issue.  If those videos of people collapsing are related to this that would be scary.

    Posting these links to the “whistleblower” reports of reinfection and the huge problem of false negatives.

    https://www.google.com/amp/s/nypost.com/2020/02/19/whistleblower-doctors-say-coronavirus-reinfection-even-deadlier/amp/

    https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/3876197

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  • Wed, Feb 19, 2020 - 1:25pm

    Reply to #46
    AC16

    AC16

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    This is where the media and governments party line of preventing panic and downplaying this whole thing is wholly irresponsible and dangerous. People are complacent in their behaviour as a result, helping to spread the virus like wildfire.

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  • Wed, Feb 19, 2020 - 2:01pm

    #49
    kunga

    kunga

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    Trapped in a small space with fomites

    Local mail carrier truck driver, UPS delivery vans, mail room, baggage handler.

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  • Wed, Feb 19, 2020 - 2:05pm

    #50

    saxplayer00o1

    Status: Silver Member

    Joined: Jul 30 2009

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    Coronavirus 74,500 Infected, 40 Mobile Incinerators Brought To Wuhan

    Youtube video. It does have leaked video from one of the hospitals.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=URBCneTwXUw

     

    I saw the leaked video from the hospital earlier today, so here is just that part:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VVoFRI0drQ8

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  • Wed, Feb 19, 2020 - 2:05pm

    Reply to #40

    George Karpouzis

    Status: Silver Member

    Joined: Feb 17 2009

    Posts: 178

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    Reply to AC16

    This story has made international headlines now for close to a month. It was on January 23 when Wuhan was placed on lockdown. It was on January 20 when the US reported its first case. Fast forward to Feb 19 and the US has 15 cases. The story that has been repeated over and over is that its no worse than the flu and how its the flu that we really need to be worried about. To a casual observer, an increase of 15 cases over a month’s time is really nothing to worry about. If the US was reporting hundreds of cases and a few deaths out of those cases then I can imagine people would be more concerned.

    Most (99 percent) of people that I’ve spoken to say that “this is a China problem” and that ends the discussion. Even now the new headline is “China cases fall” and “its under control”. Pretty soon China will stop reporting cases outside of Wuhan area to send its people back to work as they are running out of money. God only knows how this story will play out in the rest of China with its authoritarian regime.

    Is the US hiding its cases due to “privacy concerns?”Or have we really been that fortunate to only have 15 cases? Donald has been eerily silent on this topic on his twitter and has shown no fear at all shaking hands at the racecar event.

    What I’m trying to say is this: the disconnect between us and the rest of the country is huge. We are trying to figure out CFR’s while everyone else is giving two fks about this

     

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  • Wed, Feb 19, 2020 - 2:18pm

    #51
    Matties

    Matties

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  • Wed, Feb 19, 2020 - 2:28pm

    #52

    saxplayer00o1

    Status: Silver Member

    Joined: Jul 30 2009

    Posts: 3127

    3+

    World GDP would be cut by £850bn if coronavirus outbreak becomes a pandemic, experts warn

    World GDP would be cut by £850bn if coronavirus outbreak becomes a pandemic, experts warn

    https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/markets/article-8021987/World-GDP-cut-850bn-coronavirus-pandemic.html

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  • Wed, Feb 19, 2020 - 3:14pm

    #53

    George Karpouzis

    Status: Silver Member

    Joined: Feb 17 2009

    Posts: 178

    4+

    China releases new numbers: 349 cases in Hubei, 108 deaths

    Was just a few days ago that new cases were in the thousands. Now steadily dropping and soon to be in the double digits, then 0.

    China releases the rest of the country update in a few hours. Expect 20-30 cases countrywide lol while South Korea reports 20 cases in a day.

    I’m telling you all, we will have a silent pandemic that kills who it will and will sicken who it will, except they wont tell you about it.

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  • Wed, Feb 19, 2020 - 3:22pm

    #54
    AC16

    AC16

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    Well the USA are now peddling the line that all is well and they’ve contained the virus and confident of no more cases. China have reported only 349 new cases in Hubei Province. Claiming quarantine is working. Numbers will soon be down to zero no doubt. And the world economy can pretend everything is normal. Who cares about protecting citizens?

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  • Wed, Feb 19, 2020 - 3:25pm

    #55
    Desogames

    Desogames

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    Current production in china

    https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/terrifying-charts-show-chinas-economy-remains-completely-paralyzed

    The government can say what they want but we can still track activity in china and there virtually is none. The government’s constant lying about the numbers is actually backfiring now – even if the quarantine is working and the number of cases has decreased, nobody would believe them for a second and stay inside anyway.

    Speaking of which, new numbers are in and they are….. 108 deaths and 349 new cases.

    …yes they switched back the definition of “infected” and are now no longer counting cases clinically diagnosed via CT scan.

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  • Wed, Feb 19, 2020 - 3:26pm

    Reply to #54
    Desogames

    Desogames

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    reversal of methodology was also announced

    https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/china-change-infection-definition-again-pursuit-lower-cases

    Just to add that to the list of links. They did announce the change before hand. Not that anybody would report on that, of course.

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  • Wed, Feb 19, 2020 - 3:49pm

    Reply to #37
    BillL

    BillL

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    Joined: Jan 15 2020

    Posts: 115

    Gaslighting...

    Haven’t we always?

    Asking for a friend.

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  • Wed, Feb 19, 2020 - 4:09pm

    #56
    pawch

    pawch

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    ACE2 and Han Chinese

    Read the last line. That’s why angiotensin II type1 receptor blockers and angiotensin converting enzyme (ACE) inhibitors may prove very helpful, no matter your ethnic background. https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Joseph_S_Peiris/publication/7679870_Good_ACE_bad_ACE_do_battle_in_lung_injury_SARS/links/54aa33ec0cf256bf8bb96451/Good-ACE-bad-ACE-do-battle-in-lung-injury-SARS.pdf?origin=publication_detail

    Han Chinese

    https://bmcinfectdis.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/1471-2334-6-106
    https://www.intechopen.com/books/hla-and-associated-important-diseases/association-between-hla-gene-polymorphism-and-the-genetic-susceptibility-of-sars-infection

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  • Wed, Feb 19, 2020 - 4:10pm

    Reply to #9
    nedyne

    nedyne

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    Joined: Jan 14 2012

    Posts: 68

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    Infection Fatality Ratio: the real odds of death

    If one ignores the big bias created by the fact that many mild or asymptomatic cases probably go undiagnosed, the true CFR for cases that do get confirmed is probably closer to 15.46%

    I wrote some thoughts on the Chinese study above, but I retract them. It turns out that there already are preliminary estimates of the variable we’re most interested in, which is the Infection Fatality Ratio. From today’s WHO situation report:

    “Modeling is a helpful tool to try to account for missed cases, such as those that are mild cases potentially missed in current surveillance activities, and the time lag between onset and death. Using an estimated number of total infections, the Infection Fatality Ratio can be calculated. This represents the fraction of all infections (both diagnosed and undiagnosed) that result in death. Based on these available analyses, current IFR estimates[10,11,12] range from 0.3% to 1%. Without population-based serologic studies, it is not yet possible to know what proportion of the population has been infected with COVID-19.”

     

    So, according to the current worst-case estimate, if you’re a random person who catches this virus (regardless of whether you get a positive test result), your chances of survival are 99%. To this number you would presumably apply adjustments based on age, gender, etc.

     

    Also interesting, it’s the fact that the CFR is supposed to be calculated with all data up to one point in time, and is not supposed to represent your odds of dying from the virus (that would be the infection fatality ratio):

    “The confirmed case fatality ratio, or CFR, is the total number of deaths divided by the total number of confirmed cases at one point in time. Within China, the confirmed CFR, as reported by the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention,9 is 2.3%. This is based on 1023 deaths amongst 44 415 laboratory-confirmed cases as of 11 February. This CFR does not include the number of more mild infections that may be missed from current surveillance, which has largely focused on patients with pneumonia requiring hospitalization; nor does it account for the fact that recently confirmed cases may yet develop severe disease, and some may die. As the outbreak continues, the confirmed CFR may change.”

     

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  • Wed, Feb 19, 2020 - 4:40pm

    #57
    Sparky1

    Sparky1

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    Joined: Jul 21 2016

    Posts: 586

    5+

    Chris's new Covid-2019 Update (2/19/20): "Uh-Oh!"

    Coronavirus Infections Outside Of China Are Growing Exponentially

    https://youtu.be/FXelEi4tqAo

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  • Wed, Feb 19, 2020 - 5:22pm

    Reply to #17
    Mary59

    Mary59

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    Joined: Feb 09 2020

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    packages

    Hello that is a good idea.  This may not be feasible for all but I also read someone who is leaving all packages in garage covered in plastic after a 6% bleach spray for 10 days before unpacking

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  • Wed, Feb 19, 2020 - 5:29pm

    #58
    Tom Sammy

    Tom Sammy

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    Joined: Jan 30 2020

    Posts: 128

    2+

    China back to old tricks in new count

    Today’s China new cases are much lower. no shock though, this is just because china changed their counting logic (again). Oh and likely lower because ….300 million now locked in their house cannot be tested…oh and the count requires a serology confirmation but they don’t have capacity to do many each day…….

    Zerohedge explains: https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/china-change-infection-definition-again-pursuit-lower-cases

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  • Wed, Feb 19, 2020 - 5:38pm

    #59
    Tom Sammy

    Tom Sammy

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    Joined: Jan 30 2020

    Posts: 128

    1+

    Don’t worry we have CDC airport fever screening!

    Maybe the 30,001 temperature reading will catch something?

    😳https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.cnn.com/cnn/2020/02/19/health/coronavirus-airport-temperature-checks/index.html

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  • Wed, Feb 19, 2020 - 5:46pm

    #60
    kristen braun

    kristen braun

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    Joined: Jan 29 2020

    Posts: 13

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    5 cases admitted to WA state hospital

    Just found this article, I don’t know this newspaper so I can’t speak to its reliability but I haven’t seen this reported anywhere else:

    https://www.krem.com/article/news/health/covidpatientstospokane/293-bebcd824-fd13-456a-87a2-4a6b6b478814

     

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  • Wed, Feb 19, 2020 - 5:51pm

    #61
    Alexis

    Alexis

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    Joined: Jan 26 2020

    Posts: 66

    1+

    Other countries?

    Iran is busy today… 2 deaths and 5 new cases. Appears to be military organization going on… one hospital was emptied of regular patients and now a nurse leaked they have only ncov patients. Can’t remember how many she said but it was not 5. Twitter hashtag qom is what u accidentally hit and found all that.

    ace2 Tx with arbs… if ARBs reduces the potential for ARDs, would it be difficult to treat patients with a “blood pressure reducing” medicine if they are likely also experiencing blood pressure issues due to the other capillary leak going on, possible kidney failure and all the other cascades that come along with total body shock. Seems like then they would need a vasopresser to counteract all the other dilation going on and then you have more mess to manage. I can see the benefit before it starts but I Wonder if it’s manageable once ARDs starts.

     

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  • Wed, Feb 19, 2020 - 5:57pm

    Reply to #60
    Tom Sammy

    Tom Sammy

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    Posts: 128

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    re: 5 cases washington

    I believe these are folks they are taking from the cruise ship but I could not find a conclusive answer?

    (the way it’s written is as a transfer, not new cases?)

    Five coronavirus patients being transported to Spokane’s Sacred Heart for treatment

     

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  • Wed, Feb 19, 2020 - 6:09pm

    Reply to #60
    kristen braun

    kristen braun

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    But why WA.

    If these are the quarantined passengers from the Diamond Princess, why transport them from CA all the way to WA?  According to the reports, all of the passengers who tested negative were to be quarantined in CA and TX, while the confirmed cases would go to NE.

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  • Wed, Feb 19, 2020 - 6:09pm

    #62
    Myrto Ashe

    Myrto Ashe

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    Joined: Jan 25 2010

    Posts: 92

    1+

    Information on COVID patients who died in Iran

    There is some information on this twitter thread. They were evidently Iranian nationals. https://twitter.com/yasnaH_/status/1230171926431240194

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  • Wed, Feb 19, 2020 - 6:46pm

    Reply to #29

    Barbara

    Status: Member

    Joined: Dec 15 2009

    Posts: 131

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    low dose aspirin in a pinch

    My dad was told the same thing.  Keep a long-term supply of low dose aspirin and you can use it in place of plavix.

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  • Wed, Feb 19, 2020 - 7:00pm

    #63
    Ben Burke

    Ben Burke

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    Joined: Aug 17 2019

    Posts: 12

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    Airborne?

    This just now from Arirang news in Korea
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pshp3uZzHTw

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  • Wed, Feb 19, 2020 - 7:11pm

    Reply to #60
    kunga

    kunga

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    Joined: Feb 26 2017

    Posts: 251

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    Washington/Spokane patients

    Most probably these are patients from somewhere in the Northwest.  The first US case was that young man in Snohomish county, WA.   Richland, WA, southwest of Spokane, is home to many scientists, esp. Nuclear engineers and scientists who travel worldwide.  It appears they are being transferred from other hospitals.  I sure wish we got more detailed information where they are from.  Seattle?   Next state north of me (yes, it’s all about me.)

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  • Wed, Feb 19, 2020 - 7:35pm

    Reply to #60
    VeganDB12

    VeganDB12

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    Joined: Jul 18 2008

    Posts: 186

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    Why WA (Sacred Heart Hospital)

    Sacred Heart was selected because of its airborne infection isolation rooms, and the patients will be transported sometime in the next 48 hours, according to the statement.

    https://www.spokesman.com/stories/2020/feb/19/providence-sacred-heart-will-treat-five-patients-w/

    They are set up for high risk situations like Ebola.

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  • Wed, Feb 19, 2020 - 7:46pm

    #64
    Ejh237

    Ejh237

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    Joined: Oct 16 2011

    Posts: 29

    2+

    local hospital gearing up?

    I was reading our little rural county weekly paper, and noticed this huge set of help wanted ads for…  CT tech, acute/ER nurses…  and much more, can one of you docs or RNs let me know if this looks like a gearing up move?

    thanks,

    Eric & Cindy

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  • Wed, Feb 19, 2020 - 7:51pm

    Reply to #59
    Sparky1

    Sparky1

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    Joined: Jul 21 2016

    Posts: 586

    4+

    Airport temperature checks: Its all about the optic$ and maintaining the approved narrative.

    Out of more than 30,000 passengers screened for fever by the CDC in the past month at US airports, not one passenger was identified as suspected for Covid-2019.

    Regarding CDC’s guidance and prevention activities, ‘”They’re doing a great job at this,” said Osterholm, the epidemiologist in Minnesota.

    These are the measures — information to travelers, doctors and hospitals — that can help stop the outbreak, Osterholm said, and less so the temperature screening.
    “But everybody around the world is doing it, so I guess if we didn’t do it, we would look like we were being derelict in our duty,” he said.” (Source)

    I wonder how much the temperature screening façade cost, and who is footing the bill? Wait, are they still doing it??? 

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  • Wed, Feb 19, 2020 - 7:57pm

    Reply to #60
    Tom Sammy

    Tom Sammy

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    Joined: Jan 30 2020

    Posts: 128

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    Re: Spokane patients?

    Can’t find any definitive info on the origins for these cases.   Posted youtube link below to full local news report (can also check local news site krem.com for updates).   Reporters state they have asked where they are from but have not been told.

    It will be interesting to see if these are new cases originating in US and when discovered? (if it turns  out these had been hidden/delayed reported that opens up question to if there are others)

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  • Wed, Feb 19, 2020 - 8:05pm

    Reply to #59
    Sparky1

    Sparky1

    Status: Member

    Joined: Jul 21 2016

    Posts: 586

    Study w/Interactive Model: (In)Effectiveness of airport screening to detect Covid-2019 infected travellers.

    Effectiveness of airport screening at detecting travellers infected with novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV)

    Full text:  https://www.eurosurveillance.org/content/10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2020.25.5.2000080

    Excerpt from abstract:

    “We evaluated effectiveness of thermal passenger screening for 2019-nCoV infection at airport exit and entry to inform public health decision-making. In our baseline scenario, we estimated that 46% (95% confidence interval: 36 to 58) of infected travellers would not be detected, depending on incubation period, sensitivity of exit and entry screening, and proportion of asymptomatic cases. Airport screening is unlikely to detect a sufficient proportion of 2019-nCoV infected travellers to avoid entry of infected travelers.”

    Link to (very cool, IMO) interactive model to change variables, assumptions:  https://cmmid-lshtm.shinyapps.io/traveller_screening/

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  • Wed, Feb 19, 2020 - 8:11pm

    #65
    pat the rat

    pat the rat

    Status: Member

    Joined: Nov 01 2011

    Posts: 141

    anybody

    Has anybody seen the lights on in Hu Wey city in China? I hope I am wrong!No food, no water?

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  • Wed, Feb 19, 2020 - 8:27pm

    #66

    Barbara

    Status: Member

    Joined: Dec 15 2009

    Posts: 131

    1+

    White Swans? COVID19 not a Black Swan suggests NOURIEL ROUBINI

    I think we’d probably agree with the idea that most economic disruptions are more predictable than the Black Swan idea would imply.  Personally, I prefer the term Neon Swan – pandemics, climate disruption, etc.  It’s NOT a question of IF there will be disruptions.  The question is exactly when will we see an impact, how big and in exactly which variation.

    “There are times when we should expect the system to reach a tipping point — the “Minsky Moment” — when a boom and a bubble turn into a crash and a bust. Such events are not about the “unknown unknowns,” but rather the “known unknowns.”

    “Financial markets remain blissfully in denial of the many predictable global crises that could come to a head this year, particularly in the months before the US presidential election. In addition to the increasingly obvious risks associated with climate change, at least four countries want to destabilize the US from within.”

    “The COVID-19 outbreak has reinforced the position of those in the U.S. arguing for containment, and lent further momentum to the broader trend of Sino-American “decoupling.”

    “More immediately, the epidemic is likely to be more severe than currently expected, and the disruption to the Chinese economy will have spillover effects on global supply chains — including pharma inputs, of which China is a critical supplier — and business confidence, all of which will likely be more severe than financial markets’ current complacency suggests.”

    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-stock-market-is-ignoring-these-white-swan-events-that-could-upend-everything-roubini-warns-2020-02-18?mod=home-page&fbclid=IwAR0Sc9mQCTLUQndg1PlbiZpkCJjSN2m7YwPVCGA4HGsI0xHIniaNCJHOsYI

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  • Wed, Feb 19, 2020 - 8:41pm

    #67
    nordicjack

    nordicjack

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    Joined: Feb 03 2020

    Posts: 329

    3+

    I am really not sure what to make of any of this.

    I start thinking something is not right – With reports saying 80% are elderly-  though,  I would not consider someone, normally healthy under 75 as an elderly person.  I know plenty people like this that will easily work circles around the average millennial.

    And then you have infants which are definitely not with a fully functioning immune system , and seem to have no issues.

    and finally, this clearly seems to catch people in their 30s without any known health problems.  I know the numbers are low.  But never the less what bothers me is the severe cases still show in this age group.  Meaning they all are getting significant treatment and having significant issues.   They may obviously be more resilient to  all the treatment and wear of the illness.  But , is it possible that even if they survive, they end up with some sort of heart or respiratory damage?   So,  the questions is do we really need just to worry about those that die that are elderly.  Or do we need to worry about the care that is required for these other age groups , and is it possibility many would end up with some sort of permanent disability.  Are we just looking at CFR  or should more attention be paid to those who actually survive and what this means and how much treatment even a young person will require and that it still about 20% complications rate ,   and then how much life long issues are on the horizon.. and this doesnt even address the issue of being able to acquire the infection again,  with even greater damage to the organ systems. ??  I mean what are we concerned with now?

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  • Wed, Feb 19, 2020 - 8:44pm

    Reply to #60
    Sparky1

    Sparky1

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    Joined: Jul 21 2016

    Posts: 586

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    Something unique about the Diamond Princess infected, or the virus that requires higher level quarantine?

    Hundreds, if not thousands, of returning travelers have been quarantined at home, at military bases or medical facilities across the US. These 13 repatriated Americans from the Diamond Princess had a “high index of suspicion” for Covid-2019 infection, and some tested positive on the ship but were asymptomatic. All will be retested at the NE facility.

    Could it be that health officials are taking extra precautions, concerned that the new coronavirus strain from Diamond Princess travelers is different (mutated?) and/or more virulent than what has been previously identified?

    13 people, some of whom have tested positive for coronavirus, quarantined at Nebraska Med Center

    “About 10 of the 13 reportedly had tested positive for the virus, officials said Monday. One of them, who has an unspecified chronic condition, was taken to the Nebraska Biocontainment Unit with a cough and lightheadedness, officials said. The 12 others have been placed in the National Quarantine Unit in the Davis Global Center at 42nd and Emile Streets.”

    “Omaha was selected as the destination for these returned Americans because of the newly opened quarantine unit, which was built in partnership with the Office of the Assistant Secretary for Preparedness and Response, part of the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services.”

    “Among those involved in the evacuation effort in Japan were two American infectious disease specialists: Dr. James Lawler of Nebraska Medicine and a doctor from Massachusetts General Hospital in Boston. They accompanied the evacuated Americans back to the United States. Lawler is co-director of the Global Center for Health Security, which includes the quarantine unit. The unit consists of 20 negative-pressure, hotel-style rooms with TVs, refrigerators and Wi-Fi. It is separate from the Nebraska Biocontainment Unit, which is elsewhere on the campus.”

    https://www.omaha.com/news/local/people-some-of-whom-have-tested-positive-for-coronavirus-quarantined/article_0c9c09f9-a6ff-5b83-8a59-6cf3a0b2041e.html

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  • Wed, Feb 19, 2020 - 8:54pm

    #68

    dtrammel

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: May 03 2011

    Posts: 698

    1+

    Some Seem To Get It

    https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/thousands-americans-voluntarily-self-quarantine-after-returning-china-n1138731

    Thousands of travelers who have returned to the United States after recent trips to China are spending nearly half a month behind closed doors, under voluntary self-quarantine, even though they do not pose any immediate coronavirus-related health risk to others.

    These are not people sick with COVID-19, the disease caused by the coronavirus. They have had no fever and no cough, and they aren’t necessarily being tested for the virus.

    Instead, they simply traveled in China within the past few weeks and have since been flagged by health officials at one of the 11 airports nationwide through which all U.S. citizens and their families flying from China are being routed. And now they’re being asked to stay home for 14 days — the maximum amount of time it’s thought to take to develop the illness after being exposed — limiting physical contact with others as much as possible and watching for symptoms.

    “They don’t want to expose their friends or their family. They just want to be home and safe,” she said.

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  • Wed, Feb 19, 2020 - 9:35pm

    #69
    Sparky1

    Sparky1

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    Joined: Jul 21 2016

    Posts: 586

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    "Virus Catcher?" (humor...sort of)

    “Virus Catcher?”

    (Source)

    Note the health official is not wearing protective goggles.

    Fast-forward a few weeks and there will be other countries with nets also chasing this bug, which will be much larger by then.

     

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  • Wed, Feb 19, 2020 - 9:42pm

    #70
    kunga

    kunga

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    Joined: Feb 26 2017

    Posts: 251

    2+

    WA state now has 745 on self quarantine, up from 712.  Where are these people coming from, I thought China flights were stopped?

    For people returning from trip, wouldn’t the first place visited be the kennel housing your pet?

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  • Wed, Feb 19, 2020 - 9:54pm

    #71
    Mr Curious

    Mr Curious

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    Joined: Feb 03 2020

    Posts: 77

    4+

    Dinner Danger

    I was at the pub with some people earlier today and soon realized that one couple I was speaking to just got off a cruise ship and another person just got back from Vietnam 2 weeks ago. Another person at the table had been on a domestic flight. On top of that my wife works with a guy who just got back from Hawaii. All this is just in my piddly little western town in the US. As far as I could tell, nobody had the slightest concern about ‘the virus’.

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  • Wed, Feb 19, 2020 - 9:57pm

    #72
    Sparky1

    Sparky1

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    Joined: Jul 21 2016

    Posts: 586

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    Nearly 15,000 sign petition to cancel classes in CA school district due to Covid-2019

    Petition signed by 14,496 individuals. It is not known if/how many of those that signed are from the Alahambra Unified School District in California.

    Prevent Spread of Wuhan Coronavirus in AUSD by Cancelling Schools until Outbreak Ceases

    https://www.change.org/p/alhambra-unified-school-district-prevent-spread-of-wuhan-coronavirus-in-ausd-by-cancelling-schools-until-outbreak-ceases

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  • Thu, Feb 20, 2020 - 7:39am

    #73

    saxplayer00o1

    Status: Silver Member

    Joined: Jul 30 2009

    Posts: 3127

    1+

    Hospitals across the US prepare for coronavirus outbreak to become global pandemic

    Hospitals across the US prepare for coronavirus outbreak to become global pandemic

    The COVID-19 epidemic in China has not yet met world health officials’ designation of a global pandemic that spreads far and wide throughout the world. While it has spread to more than two dozen countries, international health officials say there’s very little transmission on local levels outside of China right now. But they’ve warned that could quickly change. The virus is proving to be far more contagious than the flu, having spread from 300 people in mid-January to more than 75,700 as of Thursday morning.

    https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/19/hospitals-across-the-us-prepare-for-coronavirus-outbreak-to-become-global-pandemic.html

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  • Thu, Feb 20, 2020 - 7:42am

    #74

    saxplayer00o1

    Status: Silver Member

    Joined: Jul 30 2009

    Posts: 3127

    1+

    Iran confirms three more coronavirus cases

    Iran confirms three more coronavirus cases

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  • Thu, Feb 20, 2020 - 7:53am

    #75

    saxplayer00o1

    Status: Silver Member

    Joined: Jul 30 2009

    Posts: 3127

    1+

    China floods economy with cash with coronavirus outbreak set to hit economic growth hard

    China floods economy with cash with coronavirus outbreak set to hit economic growth hard

    https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3051637/china-floods-economy-cash-coronavirus-outbreak-set-hit

    ======================

    Coronavirus: China’s manufacturing supply chain pummelled from all sides in efforts to restart

    https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3051534/coronavirus-chinas-manufacturing-supply-chain-pummelled-all

    ============================

    Man killed by coronavirus had organ damage similar to that caused by Sars, study finds

    https://www.scmp.com/news/china/society/article/3051582/man-killed-coronavirus-had-organ-damage-similar-caused-sars

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  • Thu, Feb 20, 2020 - 8:11am

    #76

    saxplayer00o1

    Status: Silver Member

    Joined: Jul 30 2009

    Posts: 3127

    1+

    South Korea reports first coronavirus death as millions urged to stay home

    South Korea reports first coronavirus death as millions urged to stay home

    South Korea reported its first death from the new virus on Thursday while the mayor of a southeastern city urged its 2.5 million people to stay inside as infections linked to a church congregation spiked.

    https://www.thestar.com/news/world/asia/2020/02/20/south-korea-reports-first-coronavirus-death-as-millions-urged-to-stay-home.html

    ======================

    Korea coronavirus cases double; two die in Japan

    https://asiatimes.com/2020/02/korea-coronovirus-cases-double-two-die-in-japan/

    =========================

    As Cases Mount, Japan Rapidly Becomes a Coronavirus Hotbed

    Japan is emerging as one of the riskiest places for the spread of the coronavirus, prompting criticism that Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s government has misfired on its policies to block the outbreak. The number of infections in Japan has more than doubled in the past week to 84, tying Singapore as the country outside mainland China with the most cases. The government is being faulted for being too
    slow to bar visitors from China and too lax in its quarantine of the Diamond Princess cruise ship, where infections surged during two weeks docked in Yokohama. While the hundreds of cases aboard the ship have grabbed the world’s attention, they are not counted among Japan’s total. What appears to be more troublesome is that Japan is starting to see a surge in cases in multiple areas across the country – sometimes with little to link the outbreaks

    https://www.bloombergquint.com/global-economics/as-cases-mount-japan-is-rapidly-becoming-a-coronavirus-hotbed

    =====================

    Coronavirus: Japan reports more cases outside ship

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  • Thu, Feb 20, 2020 - 9:23am

    #77

    saxplayer00o1

    Status: Silver Member

    Joined: Jul 30 2009

    Posts: 3127

    30-year Treasury yield inches towards all-time low as coronavirus spreads beyond China

    30-year Treasury yield inches towards all-time low as coronavirus spreads beyond China

    The 10-year Treasury note yield TMUBMUSD10Y, -3.26%   fell 2.8 basis points to 1.539%, while the 2-year note rate TMUBMUSD02Y, -3.44%   was down 1.8 basis points to 1.408%. The 30-year bond yield TMUBMUSD30Y, -2.51%   slipped 3.1 basis points to 1.985%, a few basis points away from its all-time low of 1.95% set on last September.

    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/30-year-treasury-yield-inches-towards-all-time-low-as-coronavirus-spreads-beyond-china-2020-02-20

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  • Thu, Feb 20, 2020 - 9:30am

    #78
    Ben Burke

    Ben Burke

    Status: Member

    Joined: Aug 17 2019

    Posts: 12

    Australian media - crickets.....

    I haven’t seen this reported anywhere in oz… this from South China Morning Post

    There have been reports of cargo ships being marooned at sea, with ports in countries with strict coronavirus quarantine rules such as Australia, Singapore and the United States not permitting shipping personnel to enter their ports if they have been in China over the past 14 days.

    Andy Lane, Asia director at shipping analysis firm Sea Intelligence, said that Australia had seized two ships from China, belonging to Singaporean line PIL and Chinese line COSCO, with the crew now undergoing a 14-day quarantine period before they can unload their cargo.”

    https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3051534/coronavirus-chinas-manufacturing-supply-chain-pummelled-all

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