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    Coronavirus: How Bad Will It Get?

    Latest data shows the virus continues to spread at an exponential rate
    by Adam Taggart

    Sunday, February 2, 2020, 9:56 PM

The official data on the spread of the Wuhan coronavirus continues to suggest a geometric growth rate.

Which explains why more and more infectious disease experts are now openly calling the virus a full-blown global pandemic.

So how bad might things get?

It’s worth noting at this point that the data we do have, mostly from the Chinese government, is still scant and suspect. Many think the situation is China is worse than is being reported — potentially much worse.

Frustratingly, the Western press seems bent on downplaying the coronavirus threat, many trying to convince us that the standard flu is more dangerous. Which is NOT true, at least in terms of survivability.

So, we must continue to educate ourselves as best we can.

Be sure to stay up-to-date on Peak Prosperity’s ongoing full coverage of the coronavirus outbreak by visiting here.

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124 Comments

  • Sun, Feb 02, 2020 - 10:31pm

    #1
    TraderOne

    TraderOne

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    The word is pronounced "spewtum"

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  • Sun, Feb 02, 2020 - 11:14pm

    #2

    Agent700

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    Shenzhen Report

    Thank you for working late Chris and Adam..

    Here in Shenzhen people are starting to arrive back from their LNY travel, I can see them from my deck. The city is very, very quiet, with the normal construction and traffic noise still greatly reduced. The city government is reporting daily, with 226 confirmed cases; 9 patients are in critical condition, 23 in severe condition and 5 have been discharged from hospital. There have been no deaths reported so far. (Large Boulder of salt, of course).

    Businesses are to remain closed through the 9th, except for food supply and critical infrastructure. There are fire trucks driving around on the mostly vacant streets with loudspeakers to wear masks and stay home if possible. I’m not brave enough to head to the local hospitals like the VERY BRAVE Chinese men have done. On WeChat, most of my Chinese friends are either silent or spouting the Party Line……

    I have installed Persicope onto my Twitter account (all behind the Chinese Firewall, which can be tunneled through using a VPN) – just in case things start getting hot OR they try to do forced evacuations, which I WILL NOT comply with willingly. At least it will be live streamed!

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  • Mon, Feb 03, 2020 - 12:44am

    Reply to #2
    nigel

    nigel

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    Crematorium

    It takes on average 90 minutes to cremate an adult human, there are variables like the coffin type and size, and size of the remains, but on average it takes 90 minutes. If the Wuhan crematorium is running 24 hours a day with a single furnace they could cremate 16 bodies per day. They have 30 furnaces, so the theoretical maximum would be 480 bodies per day. That isn’t right, there would be down time for cleaning and cooling. An assumption of 200 per day would really be a low figure, I would consider realistic.

    You should consider that they have 30 furnaces because of the natural death rate of the Wuhan area, so it might just be normal deaths, with a few extra’s pushing them into running after hours. The existing reported confirmed deaths in Wuhan added to the existing natural demand for the crematorium might be the cause of the running 24/7.

    It’s not conclusive of anything other than the fact there is an increased death rate in Wuhan, which we already knew.

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  • Mon, Feb 03, 2020 - 1:10am

    #3

    Agent700

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    Caixin, Chinese News, Frank Reporting

    My primary source for “approved” news here is Caixin, which is a subscription news service in English (and Chinese). It is heavily focused on economic and financial news and I have been surprised over time at how they report critically on negative parts of the Chinese economy. Now – they are posting free articles about the virus with pretty darn honest viewpoints (it seems)..This one just now is particularly open and descriptive.

    https://www.caixinglobal.com/2020-02-03/in-depth-how-wuhan-lost-the-fight-to-contain-the-coronavirus-101510749.html

     

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  • Mon, Feb 03, 2020 - 1:48am

    #4
    nordicjack

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    Regarding why human to human cases are low in US

    My brother was sick with a respiratory condition that didn’t seam like a cold or a flu.   He had a cough and horse voice and sounded rundown  for about the last week.   He did have direct contact with an individual 10 days ago or so that was in asia and flew through china on the 15th.   We spoke about the potential of him having Ncov.   We laughed about the fact that if he did seek help, that they would ask him if had been traveled outside the country and if not they would dismiss him as just having a cold or flu.   So, I am quite sure, unless you have had direct contact with someone known with the infection.. no one will notice if you have Ncov.  I am sure , until someone dies from a flu,  this will go unnoticed mostly. ( and that might still be chalked up to the flu ) So, I do believe their are plenty of cases in the US from human to human contact.  Just let the lag time catch up; you will need about 100 cases before you see a death.  – Actually , that might not be true if to use the Philippines cases.. 2 cases one death.. They are clearly missing something.

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  • Mon, Feb 03, 2020 - 3:35am

    Reply to #4
    VeganDB12

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    I agree nordijack. In other words, how do we know it isn’t widespread here if it is only causing mild illness?

    If we can’t test we won’t know.  I have seen a few viral pneumonias and some very severe colds in the area but testing is limited on a good day because it isn’t necessary.  Colds get better on their own.  Holding my breath hoping that is the case.

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  • Mon, Feb 03, 2020 - 4:15am

    #5
    dryam2000

    dryam2000

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    Data not lining up inside and outside of China

    Data not lining up inside and outside of China…..

    This could be for the simple reason that not enough time has passed such that new cases have not come to fruition yet, and the people who are infected outside of China and came from China simply had a Headstart as far as getting infected. The number of travelers is linear, but when these numbers of travelers then start infecting other people outside of China the numbers will start going up exponentially. How in the world does someone travel a very long distance in an airplane and airports and not infect other people? or, infect people for several days after they have arrived?  My suspicion is that in about 10 to 14 days the cases outside of China are going to start going up exponentially in a very clear fashion.  Hopefully I’m wrong.

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  • Mon, Feb 03, 2020 - 5:15am

    #6

    lambertad

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    China Arrested Doctors warning of outbreak

    https://www.yahoo.com/news/china-arrested-doctors-warned-coronavirus-111252311.html

    Seems to me to be a good idea not to trust anything the CCP says. If they had reacted cautiously, the epidemic may be much smaller at this point, but given the R0, likely would have continued. CCP clearly cannot be trusted. Watch what they do (line up perhaps 100 police officers outside apartment complex where someone tests positive) and not what they say.

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  • Mon, Feb 03, 2020 - 5:37am

    #7
    LabCat

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    NYC?

    With all this talk about dubious numbers, I find it odd, that New York hasn’t confirmed a case yet.

    The same goes for transportation super-hub Atlanta.

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  • Mon, Feb 03, 2020 - 5:57am

    #8
    wheresdavid

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    The #coronavirus can survive for five days maximum on smooth surfaces under suitable circumstances: experts from China's Health Commission

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  • Mon, Feb 03, 2020 - 7:01am

    #9

    cheapseats

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    Bird flu in Hubei

    Now bird flu is in Hubei.  If it recombines in a host it could have the transmission of nCov with the 50% mortality of H5N1.

    https://www.bioline.com/uk/blog/rna-viruses-new-h7n9-avian-influenza-and-coronavirus-outbreaks.h

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  • Mon, Feb 03, 2020 - 7:06am

    Reply to #8

    Snydeman

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    Caution with that source

    In my experience, the “CoronaVirus Breaking News” twitter account needs to be taken with multiple grains of salt. They sacrifice accuracy and back-checking facts for speed releasing information. I’m not saying they are wrong in every case, but they’ve “reported” things that ended up being disproved.

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  • Mon, Feb 03, 2020 - 7:06am

    #10
    vinci1452

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    virus may survive for 5 days on ‘smooth’ surfaces….are the planes being scrubbed sufficiently after flying to or from China??  are some of the infections being caused by hand to nose or eye after surface contact??? ….will the airlines hire expensive cleaning crews??….I have my doubts…something to look into

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  • Mon, Feb 03, 2020 - 7:07am

    #11
    jgritter

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    Brace for impact

    The MSM (CBS morning news) broadcast the images of the body bags on the bus this morning.  TPTB have acknowledged that the Chinese public health care system is collapsing. You have been warned, people. We may only have four to six weeks before things get really bad out here in the rest of the world.  I am an ER nurse.   The Swine Flu stressed the hospital I work at very hard.  I do not want to believe that the American public health care system could collapse but I have to admit, in the face of the evidence, that it could happen. I am prepping for my people with the idea that I may be quarantined, get sick or die.

    The next several months are going to be fascinating.

    John G

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  • Mon, Feb 03, 2020 - 7:14am

    #12

    Adam Taggart

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    """Market""" insanity

    China’s stock market dropped hard overnight. Down nearly 8%, with 90% of stocks closing ‘limit down’, the most the exchange will let a stock fall in a single day.

    But here in the US “””markets””?

    S&P up 1%. NASDAQ up 1.5%.

    This is likely the PPT flexing its muscle and trying to convince investors “all is well”. IMO, this is akin to encouraging passersby into the lobby bar of a tall hi-rise, while refraining from telling them the floors above are aflame.

    At what point do the partiers smell smoke and bolt for the exit? Is it when the number infected with the coronavirus is into the hundreds of thousands? Or when the many corporations with Asian supply chains and/or customers start issuing profit warnings?

    We may not have long to wait for either.

    And get this…TSLA up *another* 12% this morning!!! TSLA has gone from $423 to $724 just in 2020 alone. BTW, it was $180 back in May.

    Insanity.

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  • Mon, Feb 03, 2020 - 7:54am

    #13
    dryam2000

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    CNBC

    Right now I am watching CNBC with the volume down as I am working. I glance up every once a while to take a look. From what I’m seeing is they are downplaying this virus as much as they can. They just had the head of in NIH and reassuring phrases were coming across the bottom of the screen.  “ This virus is not near as deadly SARS“, etc. I thought this was not the case. But, I don’t follow the details like that because to me they are irrelevant.  In my mind SARS is bad and this virus is also very bad. So what’s the point with that statement?

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  • Mon, Feb 03, 2020 - 8:04am

    Reply to #12
    Sparky1

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    PPT as Plague Protection Team, loss of confidence, conflict

    So apparently the Plunge Protection Team also functions as the financial Plague Protection Team. Do they really have unlimited supply of digital dollars sufficient to keep these “”markets”” afloat when the nCoV’s societal and economic impacts become undeniably bad? Can they manage perception to the extent that it protects us from actual pandemic spread of this deadly virus? IMO, unless the PPT miraculously finds a way to print/press confidence (with the occasional bump-up with “new promising vaccine” pharma news), these “”markets”” are sure to come down very hard very soon.

    Unfortunately, I think TPTB will find another crisis distraction in the middle east to pump up oil. I think the effect on the “”markets”” will be temporary, but possibly with very real human costs if our military “retaliation” happens to miss their (prewarned, evacuated–oops, not quite!) targets. What a mess!

    Yes, indeed:  Brace for (multiple) impacts! :-/

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  • Mon, Feb 03, 2020 - 8:28am

    Reply to #13
    VeganDB12

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    SARS was extremely deadly (10 percent fatality) but fewer confirmed cases(a little over 8000). People with SARS weren’t infectious until they were sick for a while. With this coronavirus people can infect others very easily and without symptoms, hence they aren’t quarantined in time.

    They both bad in different ways. SARS has a higher fatality but was easier to contain.  This coronavirus has many more opportunities to spread while people are still feeling well.

    I think media people, as Chris may have said, may be trying to reassure themselves as well. It is pretty frightening.

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  • Mon, Feb 03, 2020 - 8:28am

    #14
    km64

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    Under reported statistics from China

    Read the following last week, from what seems to be a reliable source.

    https://humanevents.com/2020/01/29/wuhan-a-human-catastrophe/

    “Our hospital is already the first-rated (medical level) in the country,” he said in the chat. “If a nurse, or a doctor is infected, just like SARS, it is unavoidable that people in the whole section are potentially infected too. You guys need to be prepared. The whole Orthopedics department of my hospital has been infected. No one is safe,” Dr. Sun warned the others in the group.

    “No one is going to add those numbers. Because many people died at home or ER, so their names won’t be added into the statistics,” he added in the group chat, referring to the announced official statistics. Still, information like this is only circulated in their inner circle, not to the public. At the time of this conversation, China had confirmed only 440 cases. The latest official statistics show that there are 5794 identified patients, 9239 suspected cases, and 132 deaths.

    According to the information shared by Dr. Huang, however, many doctors from ‘first-and second-grade hospitals’ in major cities along the southeast coast have reached a consensus. They believe that the definite number of infections is five to six times the number officially announced by China, including those who have not been confirmed. The number of deaths, they estimate, is two to three times the official announcement.

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  • Mon, Feb 03, 2020 - 8:55am

    #15

    Chris Martenson

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    Possible Explanation for China Being Hit Harder

    We all have genetic variations.  In particular, different enzymes and proteins in our bodies have slightly varying configurations and many of these are more heavily or lightly expressed depending on your race.

    These variants can be quite useful for predicting certain disease outcomes, or tracing genetic routes.  In fact, when you do a “23andme” test that comes back and says you are 13% Irish (or something) this is exactly what they are testing for; known unique genetic variations that have clustered within a region or race or both.

    In this case, we’re looking at a table of populations listed by the amount of ACE2 expressing cells (across the six genetic variants listed):

    In the study I referenced in one of the earliest videos on all this a while back, they experimentally determined this: (from a relatively small set of samples, mind you):

    We also noticed that the only Asian donor (male) has a much higher ACE2-expressing cell ratio than white and African American donors (2.50% vs. 0.47% of all cells). This might explain the observation that the new Coronavirus pandemic and previous SARS-Cov pandemic are concentrated in the Asian area.

    (Source)

    At any rate, note that the highest concentration is in Japanese … presumably Japanese males.  Consider also that Japan is a very aged population.

    That suddenly makes me wonder about this particular suicide:

    Japanese gov’t official looking after returnees from Wuhan found dead

    Feb 1, 2020

    Saitama, Japan -A government official involved in work to look after isolated returnees from Wuhan at a lodging facility near Tokyo was found dead on Saturday and police are investigating his death as a possible suicide.

    The 37-year-old man dispatched from the Metropolitan Police Department to the Cabinet Secretariat was found collapsed around 10 a.m. near the dormitory building of the National Institute of Public Health in Saitama Prefecture where some of the people brought back from the central Chinese city are currently staying.

    This caught my attention when it came out, but I didn’t quite know what to make of it.  But what if this poor person was in charge of overseeing a R0 4.1 virus that attacks his race particularly hard?

    I cannot imagine anything more devastating the potentially feeling somehow responsible for allowing such a  thing to escape into my country.  If that’s what happened.  Just speculating, but it’s one of those odd news stories that bears noticing.

    At any rate, it may well be that this virus has a much more powerful impact depending on both sex and race, and that it may well be that the table above is predictive to a degree?

    Worth watching…

     

     

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  • Mon, Feb 03, 2020 - 8:57am

    #16

    saxplayer00o1

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    WHO chief says no need to halt travel to beat coronavirus

    WHO chief says no need to halt travel to beat coronavirus

    World Health Organization (WHO) chief Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said on Monday there was no need for measures that “unnecessarily interfere with international travel and trade” in trying to halt the spread of novel coronavirus outbreak in China.

    “We call on all countries to implement decisions that are evidence-based and consistent,” he told the WHO Executive Board, reiterating his earlier message.

    “Our global consecutiveness is a weakness in this outbreak but it is also our greater strength,” Tedros added.

     

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  • Mon, Feb 03, 2020 - 9:25am

    Reply to #16
    DLWELD

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    “Our global consecutiveness is a weakness in this outbreak but it is also our greater strength,” Tedros added.

    Thank you Tedros, I feel better now and I’m glad you have it all in hand. A lot of “value added” right there. Keep up the good work.

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  • Mon, Feb 03, 2020 - 9:29am

    #17

    saxplayer00o1

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    Coronavirus same class as plague & HIV: PM Mishustin says Russia will deport infected foreigners if necessary

     

     

     

     

    Coronavirus same class as plague & HIV: PM Mishustin says Russia will deport infected foreigners if necessary

    The Prime Minister further made it clear that Russia is fully equipped with the necessary medicine to combat the coronavirus, stressing: “It is important … that the prices in pharmacies remain at the same level. The Federal Antimonopoly Service and Roszdravnadzor have been instructed to monitor this.” Some areas of the country have already reported increases in the cost of masks, with local media in Kursk speaking of a 3,500% price hike.

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  • Mon, Feb 03, 2020 - 9:36am

    #18
    FooBarr

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    Question: Given the ACE2 variance among genetic origin, does that correlate to how fast the virus multiplies in one's body?

    I’m still trying to wrap my head around the impact between asian verus european ACE2 levels.  So I’m thinking in the case of German worker, did his body react to NCoV as like it was another nasty flu and given lower ACE2 levels and his immune system was able to “keep up with it” so he was able to go back to work days later?  (Although he was still contagious).

     

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  • Mon, Feb 03, 2020 - 9:37am

    #19
    Mr Curious

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    virus epidemiology

    Hello I am brand new here and fascinated by the current topic. I have noticed that there are persistent (conspiracy?) theories regarding the potential engineered origins of this virus. For example the Indian researchers claiming a HIV insert. Is it the opinion of people on this site that these claims have any merit?

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  • Mon, Feb 03, 2020 - 9:51am

    #20

    saxplayer00o1

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    NIH doctor says 25% of coronavirus cases in China are ‘very serious,’ requiring ‘intensive care’

     

    NIH doctor says 25% of coronavirus cases in China are ‘very serious,’ requiring ‘intensive care’

    Poland said on “Squawk Box” that the worldwide coronavirus outbreak is “basically at a pandemic now.”

    ================================

    Mayo Clinic doctor: Coronavirus is ‘basically at a pandemic now’ and should be treated as such

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  • Mon, Feb 03, 2020 - 9:56am

    #21

    sand_puppy

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    No group consensus at PP. Think for yourself.

    Mr Curious, we are a very, very diverse group.

    Many distrust official words, but some trust them.  This site endures by asking for civil discourse and that each person think for themselves, then articulate their understanding as clearly as possible.  Many things are unknown and cannot be known, yet are possibilities (like bioweapons).  These are discussed, too, but without consensus.

    We have pro-Trump and anti-Trump, Catholics, Protestants, Jews, Muslims and religious persons of all shapes, atheists, agnostics, Ph.D./MD scientists, housewives, gardeners, herbalists, farmers, optometrists, machinists and lawyers.  Very very diverse.

    For every opinion offered there are many here who disagree.  There is no group consensus.

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  • Mon, Feb 03, 2020 - 10:01am

    #22
    RebelYell

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    Thoughts on R0 and CFR

    I think the Lancet estimate of R0 as 2.68 is the best estimate we currently have.  The Lancet study used case rates from secondary cities and the number of travelers between Wuhan and those cities to calculate both the suspected infection count in Wuhan and R0.  The study estimating R0 as ~4 calculated its estimate from the official statistics including the Wuhan and Hubei province numbers themselves.  We now know that the numbers coming out of Wuhan are not accurate, whereas it remains possible that the numbers from other cities are much more accurate for a number of reasons.

    My best estimate of the case fatality rate is based on four data points:

    –  the Lancet study’s estimate of 76,000 actual cases in Wuhan on Jan 25th, and doubling period of 6.4 days
    –  median time to death of 14 days from hospital admission (lost source link), and assumption that the mean is similar to the median
    –  my assumption of mean time of admission to hospital from onset of symptoms of 5 days
    –  the suggestion in the humanevents article linked above that Chinese doctors in Hubei privately agree that official statistics are under-reporting deaths by a factor of three

    These assumptions lead to the following calculation:

    Number of deaths on Feb 2:            1080 (360 x 3)
    Number of cases on Jan 13:             19,000 (76,000 / (12/6.4))
    CFR:                                                      11.4%  (1080 * 2 / 19,000)

    Note that I have simply doubled the number of deaths to account for the fact that only half of the eventual deaths will have occurred by 19 days after infection.  This math is overly simplistic since the numbers include all cases, many of which had an infection date before Jan 13th.  Therefore it’s reasonable to adjust that number downwards to, say, 9% to reflect this.

    Note that, if we accept the assumptions above, which are obviously highly unreliable, the CFR is unlikely to be below 5.7%.  It’s also worth noting that if the average time to death is shorter than 19 days from initial infection these numbers would improve significantly for each day shorter.  For example a mean mortality period of 12 days from infection would yield a CFR approximately half the value I have calculated.

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  • Mon, Feb 03, 2020 - 10:03am

    Reply to #19

    thc0655

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    Engineered virus?

    I’m one who is willing to consider the <possibility> this is an engineered virus, purposefully or accidentally released. I’m not a scientist but it seems that if scientists conclude that the virus appears to be engineered (eg. By adding HIV components) then I’ll be convinced. Then we’ll want to know: by whom? If the engineered virus mostly affect men of Chinese origin, what does that mean about the culprit?

    I’m waiting for more information. Open minded (I’ve been lied to so many times I’m always distrustful of narratives the government and the MSM media are pushing, or denying.). In the meantime I’ve got a life to lead and preps to top off (I got ready for pandemics during the most recent Ebola unpleasantness).

    BTW, welcome to our site and community! I’ll look forward to whatever contributions you can make.

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  • Mon, Feb 03, 2020 - 10:06am

    Reply to #12

    Adam Taggart

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    TSLA now up 18%+ today -- insane euphoria

    Blow-off top:

     

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  • Mon, Feb 03, 2020 - 10:09am

    Reply to #21
    Mr Curious

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    Sounds good. I came across Chris recent videos and found them of interest.

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  • Mon, Feb 03, 2020 - 10:19am

    Reply to #12
    CCBW

    CCBW

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    Tesla Options

    Adam what do you think I went to cash on 1/27/2020 should have waited one day. Than I bought Tesla March puts 400 and 350 on 1/29/2020 shold have waited longer again. well should a person add a few or load the boat.

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  • Mon, Feb 03, 2020 - 10:20am

    Reply to #12
    DisappearingCulture

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    Tesla

    Other than the one quarter they claim to have made a profit [if you believe their accounting methods, they are a perennial money loser. Amazing.

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  • Mon, Feb 03, 2020 - 10:28am

    #23

    SagerXX

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    Colloidal Silver nebulizer treatments for sinus/throat/lungs

    Hey all —

    I’m pretty agnostic about colloidal silver as a medicine.  I know people who are quite serious that it is an indispensable part of their kit, and I know people who are busily rolling their eyes before you get done saying “colloidal”.

    Anecdotal data point:  for a couple months I have been dating a woman who among other things is a resilience enthusiast/prepper.  She had a terrible flu about 3 weeks ago, the associated coughing of which left her throat so raw that when she gargled salt water, it came out pink.

    She eventually got better.  Fast forward to a few days ago and she felt a relapse of the cough coming on.  She mentioned this to a friend who brought over a nebulizer and some colloidal silver.  My lady friend did two treatments of about 4 minutes about 6 hours apart and it just knocked the cough right down.  She’s certain the colloidal silver wiped out whatever opportunistic bug was trying to assert itself in her lungs/throat/sinuses.

    Make of it what you will.  Like I said, just one data point, and perhaps a starting point for investigation if colloidal silver doesn’t make you roll your eyes…

    VIVA — Sager

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  • Mon, Feb 03, 2020 - 10:33am

    #24
    Penguin Will

    Penguin Will

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    8+

    I don’t know what to make of it, tbh.

    But I do know one thing, I hope it doesn’t make it over here. Or at least not until I’ve shaken the chest infection I’ve been battling the last week plus. And had time to recover. A good case of the flu might do me in while I’m battling this thing. 🙂

    I’ll be honest. I’m afraid for people with compromised immune systems and the very young and old. Most of us have people we care about who fit into these categories.

    Will

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  • Mon, Feb 03, 2020 - 10:34am

    Reply to #19
    Mr Curious

    Mr Curious

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    viral origins

    THanks. I brought up the question because the credibility of the Indian article regarding HIV inserts is hard to decipher. Their biggest contribution may have been to prompt people into actively studying that possibility. The unsettling fact is that the technology for engineering sequence is quite routine and do-able. For what it’s worth, I don’t think that huge numbers of scientists worldwide could be involved in any type of coverup. Perhaps the MSM can all be given a corporate script on what to say, but I don’t think science is that way.

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  • Mon, Feb 03, 2020 - 10:45am

    Reply to #24
    Mr Curious

    Mr Curious

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    yeah, it’s highly concerning that we (the US) has so many people who would likely avoid health care due to concerns about bankruptcy from going to the ER. We’ve also got so many homeless, one could imagine these people are highly vulnerable.

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  • Mon, Feb 03, 2020 - 10:46am

    #25

    tourcarve

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    Posts: 23

    12+

    Re "You folks ever wonder if the MSM may be on here baiting people into commenting..."

    “You folks ever wonder if the MSM may be on here baiting people into commenting on things so PeakProsperity can be discredited in their next article?”

    Foobar – Yes! Because how does speculating on whether this virus is man-made, a consequence of how food markets operate, or something else help us this day in this critical time period?

    I am spending my time making sure that I have enough Kleenex and bleach on hand. And that my car is in good operating order in case I have to drive 2000 miles to retrieve my elderly brother. And monitoring the news for info that will trigger me to do so — a non-travel-related case of person-to-person infection in his area.

    AND I am concerned about keeping Peak Prosperity available as many people as possible for doing what is appropriate to focus on now — not becoming infected (e.g., having the capability to hunker down for months) and being prepared for home care, if necessary. Thinking about how to make my neighborhood more robust.

    Later on, questions about how this virus came to be will be important. But who is so well prepared today that they couldn’t do more for themselves, their loved ones, and their community to stay safe and limit the spread?

    Grrr…

     

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  • Mon, Feb 03, 2020 - 11:18am

    Reply to #15
    kunga

    kunga

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    Genetic variation

    Supposedly, those of Jewish extraction less suceptible to plague and HIV.

    Thank you, Chris for all you do.

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  • Mon, Feb 03, 2020 - 11:22am

    #26
    Mr Curious

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    is the msm baiting you

    tourcarve, I won’t argue with you, I won’t post any more today,  but with due respect can you just look at what you just said? “Later on, questions about how this virus came to be will be important.” Are you in charge of deeming what are important topics and what are not?  Can you provide a date for when ‘later’ is for this discussion will be important? Can you please give a list of what topics are helpful and what are not so I know what not to ask in the future?

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  • Mon, Feb 03, 2020 - 11:23am

    Reply to #23
    kunga

    kunga

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    3+

    Colloidal silver

    This is my first line of defense for any thing respiratory, sniffles, sore throat, eye infections, topical stuff.  Use as nose drops, gargle.  10ppm from Soverign is my choice.

    I also have some silver gel.

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  • Mon, Feb 03, 2020 - 11:28am

    #27

    thc0655

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    And don’t forget: it’s actually 4 “plagues” in China now

    http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/archives/4-plagues-are-marching-across-asia-simultaneously-coronavirus-african-swine-fever-h5n1-bird-flu-and-h1n1-swine-flu

     

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  • Mon, Feb 03, 2020 - 11:28am

    Reply to #25
    Rob Laporte

    Rob Laporte

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    Inoculating against MSM Criticisms of PP

    Thank you Chris and Adam for such excellent information on this virus.

    I worry about two general and perhaps widely convincing criticisms of the reporting here.

    1. If a lot more infections are not reported because of lack of testing or mild symptoms, and if deaths are more likely to be reported (stands to reason), then then the CFR and serious complication rate would actually be much lower. Lack of foregrounding this reasoning. and refuting it if there is a good refutation, could be used to support the accusation of fear-mongering here.
    2. The lack of evidence of rapidly spreading illnesses outside of China would seem among the most important news to be reported here. Though Chris’s videos have the touched on this, the lack of foregrounding it could be used to support the accusation of fear-mongering here.

    The service to our community by PP’s reporting on this virus is incredibly valuable, and I would hate to see it undermined by the criticisms like the above.

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  • Mon, Feb 03, 2020 - 12:10pm

    #28

    Mark_BC

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    Posts: 341

    1+

    If Tesla never makes any money then what’s the difference between 500 and $1000? Its all printed up money inflating the company stock to fund bringing electric cars to market. As long as the printing presses continue there is no limit.

    Edit: it might be because of tesla’s disastrous financials and the powers that be can’t let it fail. So they shovel money into its stock to give it operating cash. Expect it to climb much higher, until the inevitable end. Not there yet though.

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  • Mon, Feb 03, 2020 - 12:19pm

    #29

    George Karpouzis

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    Posts: 157

    Only one deceased outside of China 155 cases

    Very interesting how the virus is killing people outside of China.

    Very relieving information at this time. Shouldn’t be long until reported cases outside of China reach 300. We are currently at 155.

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  • Mon, Feb 03, 2020 - 12:35pm

    #30

    sand_puppy

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    CHS: Brace for Impact, the Pandemic is baked into the cake already

    Charles Hugh Smith does another analysis reviewing the scope of the information available.  He draws from Chris’ discussions and videos and a number of the informal sources discussed here at PP.

    Pandemic is inevitable at this point.  Brace for Impact.

    A couple of highlights.

    1.  Tracking cases and contacts–the technique that “defeated SARS”–doesn’t and cannot work here.

    A statistical study from highly credentialed Chinese academics estimates the virus has an RO (R-naught) of slightly over 4, meaning every carrier infects four other people on average.

    This is very high. Run-of-the-mill flu viruses average about 1.3 (i.e. each carrier infects 1.3 other people while contagious). Chris Martenson (PhD) goes over the study in some detail in this video.

    Let’s say the study over-estimates the contagiousness due to insufficient data, etc. Even an RO of 3 means the number of infected people rises geometrically (parabolically).

    This matters because it negates any plan to track every potentially infected person who came in contact with a carrier.

    2.  How it is spread

    Coronaviruses tend to be contagious in relatively close contact (within two meters / six feet) but masks may not be enough protection, as it may spread by contact with surfaces and through [contact with] the [conjunctival surfaces of] the eyes.  …[T]his virus is highly contagious.

    3.  The contagion that has already happened, but is not yet evident

    Nobody seems to be tracking the origin point of travelers. If an asymptomatic carrier from Wuhan took a train or flight to Beijing last week (exposing other passengers to the pathogen) and then boarded a flight from Beijing to SFO (San Francisco), the presumption would be that the traveler is from Beijing.

    Tens of thousands of people have boarded flights in China over the past month and deplaned in international destinations. The likelihood that some consequential percentage of these travelers originated from Wuhan, or were infected by someone from Wuhan, is high.

    It’s basically impossible to thread these three points together and not conclude that a massive expansion of the virus is about to manifest in dozens of international destinations.

    Put another way: this virus is a nearly ideal combination of contagiousness and asymptomatic transmission that enables a rapid spread of the virus via people who have no idea they’re carriers.

    [Limited contact in an airplane or airport can spread the infection.]

    4.  Many have already fled quarantined cities.  Lockdowns are porous. Large incetives to leave the quarantined ares.  Efforts now are too late.

    …[The] mass movement of informal-economy workers more or less insures the virus has spread far and wide from Wuhan long before the city was fully locked down.

    5.  The mortality rate is hard to pin down, but is significant.

    The mortality rate of the virus is hard to pin down for a number of reasons. One is that mortality is a time-series, meaning counting those who have died isn’t an accurate measure of all those who are infected who may die in the near future.

    Furthermore, the official totals are suspect, as numerous anecdotal reports have come out indicating people who died were mis-classified as victims of “pneumonia.” Other reports indicate the overwhelmed healthcare system in Wuhan has been sending corpses to be cremated without proper identification of the cause of death.

    It appears Chinese officialdom is reverting to the same tactics used in 2003 to suppress data about SARS and downplay the dangers of the pathogen. It seems highly unlikely that the death totals being announced are accurate, and highly likely that the totals are a fraction of actual deaths.

    There isn’t enough trustworthy data to estimate the mortality rate of the virus, but even the official totals, when coupled with the number of patients in intensive care, suggests a higher rate of mortality than typical flu viruses but less than SARS 9%.

    6.  Scooting around quarantine barriers

    A large number of Chinese people work overseas, and they will be returning to their jobs this coming week, as the official New Year’s holiday ended 2 February. While some airlines have stopped flights to and from China, not all airlines have done so. So these workers have a number of ways to get back to their overseas jobs: catch a flight to somewhere outside China and then catch a flight to Europe, Africa, the U.S. etc.

    Nassim Taleb co-authored a paper (download available on his site) that explained why the only way to limit the spread of the virus is to severely limit connectivity of people and transport: the more connections exist, the greater the number of avenues for the virus to spread.

    Lots of additional insightful discussion!  Recommended.

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  • Mon, Feb 03, 2020 - 12:39pm

    Reply to #19

    mememonkey

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    Examing the recent Wuhan Bioweapon Narrative

     

    From the very sharp and superb invesigative reporter Whitney Webb who did the best reporting out there connecting the dots on Epstein, comes this recent article documenting important info on the connections  of bat/Corona researchers the origins of the bioweapons narratives and soon to be Vaccine developers,

     

    Worth a read!

    mm

    https://www.unz.com/wwebb/bats-gene-editing-and-bioweapons-recent-darpa-experiments-raise-concerns-amid-coronavirus-outbreak/

     

    Examining the Recent Wuhan-Bioweapon Narrative

    As the coronavirus outbreak has come to dominate headlines in recent weeks, several media outlets have promoted claims that the reported epicenter of the outbreak in Wuhan, China was also the site of laboratories allegedly linked to a Chinese government biowarfare program.

    However, upon further examination of the sourcing for this serious claim, these supposed links between the outbreak and an alleged Chinese bioweapons program have come from two highly dubious sources.

    For instance, the first outlet to report on this claim was Radio Free Asia, the U.S.-government funded media outlet targeting Asian audiences that used to be run covertly by the CIA and named by the New York Times as a key part in the agency’s “worldwide propaganda network.” Though it is no longer run directly by the CIA, it is now managed by the government-funded Broadcasting Board of Governors (BBG), which answers directly to Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, who was CIA director immediately prior to his current post at the head of the State Department.

    In other words, Radio Free Asia and other BBG-managed media outlets are legal outlets for U.S. government propaganda. Notably, the long-standing ban on the domestic use of U.S. government propaganda on U.S. citizens was lifted in 2013, with the official justification of allowing the government to “effectively communicate in a credible way” and to better combat “al-Qaeda’s and other violent extremists’ influence.”

     

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  • Mon, Feb 03, 2020 - 12:49pm

    #31
    km64

    km64

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    Prior planning prevents poor performance and panic

    I may be a new poster here, but I’ve been on the internet and BBSs, since the early 90’s. Even without that background, if one were to only read the major newspapers, there has always been a certain amount of B.S., conjecture, gossip, and myths about every event, from the smallest to the largest.

    One should always keep an open mind regarding information regardless of where you see it. Do your due diligence when confronted by information that is counter-narrative, or narrative fulfilling, either can be used against you in a time of crisis. That was true in the days of the pony express and beyond, it is more true today than ever.

    I’m going to follow standard flu season protocols, frequent hand cleaning with sanitizer, avoiding touching my face, avoid people who have flu like symptoms. I went to storage and got my epidemic preps (masks, gloves, goggles, hand wipes,) just so they’re more readily available. Went to the store and got severe cold and flu meds, because those are already getting low in stock because we’re in flu season.

    “Prior planning prevents poor performance and panic” is my mantra. Don’t panic, it’s the flu. Prepare, because it could become a pandemic (if it isn’t already.) Know what a pandemic could do globally and locally to supply lines.

    With all that said, I found these articles interesting, and certain that it will provide fodder for conspiracy theorists, but it may provide others with information helpful in preparing for the future.

    https://www.theepochtimes.com/scientific-puzzles-surrounding-the-wuhan-novel-coronavirus_3225405.html

    https://www.scmp.com/news/china/science/article/3048772/striking-coronavirus-mutations-found-within-one-family-cluster

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  • Mon, Feb 03, 2020 - 1:33pm

    #32

    thc0655

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    Posts: 1651

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    It took 4 tests to confirm one Chinese patient had Wuhu Flu

     

    Four tests were needed to confirm a case of

    the new deadly coronavirus

    in northern China, highlighting the difficulty of screening for the previously unknown illness, which has spread throughout the world.

    The patient, a 55-year-old railway worker living Tianjin, a megacity next to the capital of Beijing, was identified as a potential case in mid-January because he had been in “close contact” with a number of infected patients in the city, according to the local health commission.

    On January 19, the man developed a fever and, a week later, he went to hospital and was tested twice for the virus. The results were negative and he was quarantined at home.

    He had fever again on January 27, but the third test the next day again indicated that he was not infected.

    It was only until January 30, when he was tested again that he was confirmed as infected, making him Tianjin’s 28th case.

    Two returning Chinese students here in NH had symptoms but were sent home after testing negative once.

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  • Mon, Feb 03, 2020 - 1:38pm

    #33

    Adam Taggart

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    Posts: 2840

    6+

    NIH: 25% of coronavirus cases in China are ‘very serious,’ requiring ‘intensive care’

    The NIH weighs in:

    NIH doctor says 25% of coronavirus cases in China are ‘very serious,’ requiring ‘intensive care’

    Dr. Anthony Fauci of the National Institutes of Health told CNBC on Monday that a quarter of China’s coronavirus cases require intensive treatment.

    “About 25% of them have very serious disease, requiring relatively intensive or really intensive care,” said the director of the NIH’s National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases.

    (…)

    “It’s escalating,” Fauci said on “Squawk on the Street.” “The number of cases that increase from one day to another is clearly going up in a very steep slope.”

    There are many health-care professionals and analysts, including Fauci, who believe the number of coronavirus cases to be much higher.

    “There are probably a lot more people who were infected in China who have not been really counted … because they were either asymptomatic or their symptoms were so light that they didn’t come to the attention of health authorities,” Fauci said. “The number is probably much larger.”

    (Source)

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  • Mon, Feb 03, 2020 - 2:04pm

    Reply to #31
    Kgluong

    Kgluong

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    Prefect chaos virus.

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  • Mon, Feb 03, 2020 - 2:13pm

    Reply to #33
    Trader.Florida

    Trader.Florida

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    The really scary part...

    There have been sporadic pictures/videos of people just falling over either dead or unconscious. Here’s a CCTV video from today that just makes you wonder what the virus is doing that causes people who are apparently OK to fall over and go into a seizure…God help us all.

    https://twitter.com/hongyihope/status/1224358073252249600?s=20

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  • Mon, Feb 03, 2020 - 2:18pm

    Reply to #33

    dtrammel

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    25% of those who can afford the treatment?

    Several comments from those within China tell of a hospital system where if you don’t have the cash for treatment, your care is very minimal. I wonder if this number is skewed badly. How many stay home, self treat and die? And how many come to the hospital, get little treatment and die? Or get better. Or are only affected marginally?

    Not sure how that would affect the CFR and SCR rates. From all the non-CCP reports, the illness/death rate is pretty high though.

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  • Mon, Feb 03, 2020 - 2:26pm

    Reply to #15
    gyurash

    gyurash

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    Ratio of ACE-2 cells

    The global politically correct speech habits may actually be not helpful at this time. I doubt the numbers would make a big difference in contagiousness, but if the race of an individual makes a difference in how severe the illness may be, I would think people within that group would want to know. A change in behavior is the only way to avoid catching it at this time. I have noticed that news reports have mentioned nationalities of victims, but have been mum on race. Exposing this data would not be racist, it would be a caution for extra vigilance and self protection for members of that group.
    Let’s put it another way. Please tell me if I have this wrong as I admit I have no medical training. This virus enters cells using this ACE-2 pathway. I presume then that it can not enter cells without it. If the body has no natural resistance or defense, and takes a week or more to start to build one, then we might as well assume the virus has a chance in infect ALL the available receptor cells. Now looking at the ratio chart, if the virus reproduces in and ruptures half your lung cells, you are going to be really sick, but maybe you can at least still breath. But infecting 92% of your lung cells? Even oxygen in an ICU ward may not save you. Now the numbers in the chart are averages, but I think this would explain the extreme measures being taken in China.

    Why am I, we, left to guess at this stuff? My preferred auto mechanic is better at sharing his trade knowledge than the medical profession. Perhaps he is not as politically motivated.

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  • Mon, Feb 03, 2020 - 2:28pm

    Reply to #26

    westcoastjan

    Status Bronze Member (Offline)

    Joined: Jun 04 2012

    Posts: 219

    11+

    what is important is based on your risk

    Hello Mr. Curious,

    What is matters at this point is what is personally deemed an important & urgent need that will allow people and their loved ones to be ready for any eventuality, should this virus spread, as many are anticipating.

    This site is about info sharing that informs risk management. In the heat of a perceived emergency there is less focus on debating potential sources or causes of the emergency than there is on surviving whatever is coming our way. Think of it this way: if the ground is shaking beneath your feet and the buildings swaying, do you want to take the time to debate the merits of fracking impacts on geology, or do you want to focus what you need to do to ensure near term survival?

    There will be plenty of time and no doubt great debates much later on the post mortem of this latest global crisis. When that is, who knows. Depends on how long this is a threat to us.

    There is never a shortage of good debates on this site. As SandPuppy noted, this is a diverse bunch with a lot of stalwarts contributing, leading and providing much ‘food for thought about numerous topics. I have no doubt there are many in internet-land who think we are conspiracy theorists. And we all have the common problem of getting (most) of our loved ones to try to buy into that which we have come to understand and accept as being reality.

    Stick around, learn things, and join discussions – but be prepared to back up what you say with solid arguments and facts. BS is picked up on pretty damn quick around here, and called out, but new contributors who can add something of value are always welcomed. I hope you are in the latter camp…

    Jan

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  • Mon, Feb 03, 2020 - 2:37pm

    #34

    msnrochny

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    Outstanding video interview of one of the leading authorities on bioweapons says that’s what we are dealing with

    Wow, what an outstanding interview of Dr. Francis Boyle.  His commentary about the WHO and CDC is devastating.  He pulls no punches that this bug is from the BSL-4 lab in Wuhan, and that China, the US, the WHO and CDC know the story, and are lying.  He gives practical advice about how much distance to maintain to prevent contamination, and other great insights.

    https://www.zerohedge.com/health/creator-bioweapons-act-says-coronavirus-biological-warfare-weapon

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  • Mon, Feb 03, 2020 - 2:38pm

    #35

    thc0655

    Status Platinum Member (Offline)

    Joined: Apr 27 2010

    Posts: 1651

    2+

    108 Princeton University students returning from China are “self-isolating”

    https://6abc.com/health/100-princeton-students-in-self-isolation-amid-coronavirus-scare/5901137/

    That ought to stop it dead in its tracks. /s

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  • Mon, Feb 03, 2020 - 2:43pm

    Reply to #10
    NotQuiteReady

    NotQuiteReady

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    Are the planes being scrubbed sufficiently after flights?...

    Two confirmed cases in QLD Australia, arriving on a Tigerair flight.

    First news article to declare the confirmations stated, “Tigerair has confirmed the aircraft the Chinese tourists were travelling on made 13 more flights before the plane underwent rigorous steam cleaning as a result of the man’s positive test.”

    More recent news articles are stating, “Tigerair said the plane was taken out of service as a “precautionary measure” for extra cleaning. It had flown around Australia since Monday to destinations including Cairns, Brisbane, the Gold Coast, Melbourne, Adelaide and Perth. Queensland Chief Medical Officer Jeannette Young said people shouldn’t be alarmed if they had been on the plane.

    “The danger is going to be absolutely minimal,” Dr Young said. “I can’t say it’s zero because we don’t have that full information. When you cough or sneeze — and this man was symptomatic on the plane — you can cough or sneeze the virus particles … and they land on surfaces. Usually they dry out very quickly and are no problem. Coronaviruses don’t usually survive on surfaces for long but we don’t know with this virus that’s why I say be cautious and wash your hands regularly. But if they develop respiratory symptoms in the next 14 days mention to your healthcare provider you were on one of those planes.”

    I’m thinking the answer to your question is….No, the planes are not being cleaned after each flight.

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  • Mon, Feb 03, 2020 - 2:55pm

    Reply to #33
    NotQuiteReady

    NotQuiteReady

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    I think we need to remember...

    that not every illness is related to this Corona virus strain. The video shows an obviously excited person fall over and have a seizure…possibly epilepsy? Reports have indicated that the Corona virus symptoms are generally making people quite unwell leading into the respiratory issues and low blood pressure and in those cases it wouldn’t be unusual for someone to pass out as part of the bodies attempt to deal with the low blood pressure/low oxygen levels.

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  • Mon, Feb 03, 2020 - 3:13pm

    #36
    Tim Puffer

    Tim Puffer

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    Posts: 6

    Propaganda from Russia

    Purely informational.

    Russian Media Outlets are Blaming the Coronavirus on the United States

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  • Mon, Feb 03, 2020 - 3:25pm

    Reply to #30
    RebelYell

    RebelYell

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    This is an appalling analysis

    This comment refers to the Charles Hugh Smith article linked from comment #29 – not Chris’s article.

    I read a lot of Charles’ stuff and I like his blog.  I read and enjoyed his novel – which I recommend by the way – it’s an enjoyable read :-).

    But this particular article, from a mathematics perspective, is horse shit.  He picks and chooses his data, double counts, makes unsupported assertions and generally plays fast and loose with logic.

    That’s not to say that I disagree with the position that we need to be concerned, and that the facts we do have are alarming.  We do and they are.  That still doesn’t excuse bad maths and poor logic 🙂

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  • Mon, Feb 03, 2020 - 3:27pm

    #37
    Matties

    Matties

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    Ther is a patent on vaccine for a coronavirus. Pirbright Institute...

    But they are very innocent. We are talking about the institute who leaked mouth and food disease in England. And doing research into swine flu. You know what is killing pigs in China.

    https://www.pirbright.ac.uk/news/2020/01/pirbright%E2%80%99s-livestock-coronavirus-research-%E2%80%93-your-questions-answered

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  • Mon, Feb 03, 2020 - 3:41pm

    #38

    msnrochny

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    Posts: 42

    Study documents first case of coronavirus spread by a person showing no symptoms

    Study documents first case of coronavirus spread by a person showing no symptoms

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  • Mon, Feb 03, 2020 - 3:49pm

    #39

    Adam Taggart

    Status Platinum Member (Offline)

    Joined: May 25 2009

    Posts: 2840

    7+

    Latest: 20,438 infected, 426 dead

    The latest data shows infections are still growing at (or very close to) an exponential rate:

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  • Mon, Feb 03, 2020 - 4:03pm

    Reply to #39

    ktruddymd

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    Posts: 15

    5+

    Francis Boyle, Professor Law, Harvard alum, expert on bioweapon warfare

    Zerohedge has an article about nCoV which contains an interview with Professor Boyle who believes, based on the currently available evidence, that the Wujan virus outbreak is a China-Chernobyl-type accident, a ‘spill’ from a BSL 4 in Wujan; that nC0V is a bioengineered version of SARS capable of lethal penetration of a human population (83% infection rate; 15% mortality rate), as we are seeing in China and may yet see elsewhere.  If true, this is going to be catastrophic.  Please review the Zero post and comment if you feel compelled to do so.  Thanks, Doc

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  • Mon, Feb 03, 2020 - 4:07pm

    Reply to #39

    ktruddymd

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    Posts: 15

    4+

    Epi Curve for ex-China cases of nCoV

    Please have Chris post an outbreak curve for non-China cases of nCoV.  I think that this curve will be more informative of the pattern of future growth of the outbreak than curves that incorporate (likely erroneous) Chinese data.  Thanks, Doc

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  • Mon, Feb 03, 2020 - 4:07pm

    Reply to #25
    sanjeevksharma

    sanjeevksharma

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    2+

     

    • If a lot more infections are not reported because of lack of testing or mild symptoms, and if deaths are more likely to be reported (stands to reason), then then the CFR and serious complication rate would actually be much lower. Lack of foregrounding this reasoning. and refuting it if there is a good refutation, could be used to support the accusation of fear-mongering here.

    ____

    same could be said for any disease – it’s possible people who got ebola or SARS or MERS and never reported symptoms were never counted, but deaths from same would be.

     

    The figure for all could be misleading, but it’s misleading for the same reasons.  And until any disease is so well characterized like older versions of the flu that its spread and mortality can be accurately modeled, it will always be subject to these limits.

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  • Mon, Feb 03, 2020 - 4:14pm

    #40
    Myrto Ashe

    Myrto Ashe

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    11+

    Some news

    1. Two California patients (the San Benito county folks) have been admitted to hospital in San Francisco, after they took a turn for the worse (as reported in Flutrackers). I don’t know if that means they are in critical condition – or just that we have designated hospitals for coronavirus the way we did for ebola.

    2. Interesting statement by public health – they are not trying to halt the spread of virus, as “that would be impossible,” just slow it down: https://www.mdedge.com/internalmedicine/article/216595/coronavirus-updates/novel-coronavirus-cases-now-11-entry-ban-and

    3. This is the link to the newsletter I sent my patients:

    https://mailchi.mp/c38c292e8845/coronavirus-optimizing-our-immune-system

    4. Here is the reference on ARDS (the condition that kills coronavirus patients) clearly stating that it is related to excessive inflammation (“borderpatrol” said he thought that was wrong):

    https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6046379/

    5. I plotted the new cases worldwide as reported by gisandata.coronavirus as of today:

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  • Mon, Feb 03, 2020 - 4:15pm

    Reply to #7
    nordicjack

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    I assure you its there.

    Just give it a little bit of time.   it takes almost as much time to incubate as its been in the news.   this will mushroom in about 10-15 days.

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  • Mon, Feb 03, 2020 - 4:36pm

    #41
    LabCat

    LabCat

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    4+

    Dogs Marrying Cats?

    In a country where the media creates the talking points, why is everything inverted right now?

    Think about it. Lately, every storm system to pass through is a “CODE RED” storm of the century.

    “This weather update brought to you courtesy of GENERAC Home Generators and The Home Depot! STAY TUNED!”

    Everything in the 1st World is a crisis these days.

    Except for this.

    Go figure.

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  • Mon, Feb 03, 2020 - 4:51pm

    Reply to #39

    guardia

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    1+

    Re: Latest: 20,438 infected, 426 dead

    Hi, Adam, it indeed looks like we’re not breaking trend. Also, here is today’s edition of the Japanese TV show that is tracking the number of cases in Wuhan vs in the rest of China:

    At about 1:30:00 (towards the end), they show the updated graph, and it looks like the trend in Wuhan itself has also reversed and is back on track to being exponential! Draconian quarantine is apparently NOT working.

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  • Mon, Feb 03, 2020 - 6:05pm

    Reply to #2
    nordicjack

    nordicjack

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    Posts: 88

    normal death rate and cremation

    I would not read much into the demand.  there are  11M in wuhan.   I would think at a mere daily death rate of 10/100k    this would mean 1100 people die locally.   I am only going by my local town in TN .. of course this is US and the So, so we may have a higher death rate than in wuhan but the point remains .. that I can understand the numbers without something happening huge with the virus  Actually, if wuhan had the same average death rate as the US, then there would an expected 206 deaths each day.     so , then maybe something does seem a bit off.

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  • Mon, Feb 03, 2020 - 6:13pm

    Reply to #15
    bigpig1

    bigpig1

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    Ace II by race

    Is it possible to use the varying ACE II numbers in different races to extrapolate a different R0 by race?

    ie a possible R0 of 4.1 in Japan vs a possible R0 of 1.5 for a group with a much lower ACE II presence?

    I can see this being a sensitive subject and want to broach it with all due delicacy…

    Could you use the ACE II differences to come up with an R0 that, rather than only a rate of transmissibility, could be used as a possible rate of receptivity?

    not sure if I’m making sense…

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  • Mon, Feb 03, 2020 - 6:21pm

    #42
    dryam2000

    dryam2000

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    Way too early to conclude much

    It’s way too early on coronavirus to make any assessments on number of infections, severity of illness, and deaths outside of China. The number of travelers out of China is/was a finite & linear. It probably takes 7-14 days to manifest symptoms once initially infected.  And, when it comes to deaths it probably takes around 14 to 28+ days.  So, not enough time has passed to know the severity of illness in those who acquired the virus in China and traveled outside. Those infected people most certainly infected others during their travels & after they arrived in their destination countries. It is only February 3 today. This just got going 2-3 weeks ago in China, & I don’t believe the travel ban took place until a few days ago.

    Humans in general have difficulty conceptualizing exponential growth. Exponential growth is like watching grass grow in the beginning, and then as it gets going people can not fathom how things ballon to unimaginable sizes much much quicker than expected. Search “Albert Bartlett exponential” on YouTube for a quick primer, or see Chapter #3 #4 of the Crash Course here at http://www.Peakprosperity.com.

    I’m not an epidemiologist, infectious disease specialist, or know many of the details of this outbreak.  I also probably have some of the details wrong about the timeline of this outbreak.  Seems to me too many people are getting lost in some of the details.  I frankly can not see how this devil genie can be put back in it’s bottle. My suspicion is that the sense of American & Western country exceptionalism is absurdly strong. Microbes don’t give a shit where you live.

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  • Mon, Feb 03, 2020 - 6:55pm

    #43

    AKGrannyWGrit

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    Posts: 547

    4+

    History Is Being Made

    Dryam2000, good post until you got to the part about American exceptionalism and microbes not caring where we live.  What?  That was…. odd.  We are not exceptional. You are right though we are all susceptible and many of us are very empathetic to those who are suffering.

    It is all very disconcerting because people just really, really want to believe the problem is over there not here.  I found myself contemplating whether I should wipe down my Amazon order with disinfecting wipes.  There are so few I can talk to about something like that because they would think I am crazy and paranoid.  I suspect not for long though.

    Find I am a bit obsessed with the topic.  Its very interesting, we are living in a historical event.

    AKGrannyWGrit

     

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  • Mon, Feb 03, 2020 - 7:25pm

    #44
    westcoastdog

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    How bad?

    Last week, every plane that carried an infected passenger to the US was a test laboratory for the coronavirus.  The flight from Shanghai to San Francisco is about a dozen hours, more than sufficient time for the virus to spread.  Fellow passenger and crew, if infected, should begin showing symptoms this week. The number of infected persons will provide strong evidence of the communicability of the virus. If the number is low (hopefully), containment may be possible. On the other hand, if more than a dozen passengers and crew acquired the virus, containment will be challenging, perhaps impossible without draconian measures. If crew members become infected, the infection will explode because the flight crews would continue to fly, exposing hundreds of passengers daily. The fact that the initial carriers were Chinese simplified the identification. Once the virus permeates the general population, everyone will become suspects. For the US, this week will be crucial. Expect panic if many of the passengers and crew have gotten infected.

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  • Mon, Feb 03, 2020 - 7:29pm

    #45
    dryam2000

    dryam2000

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    15+

    Exceptionalism

    My point was many Americans, my family included, do not even have Coronavirus on their radar….at all, even many physicians I work with.  Americans typically have a sense that by being in America they are somehow immune from the badness that most other people across the globe deal with on a daily basis.  Yes, microbes are 100% oblivious to what borders they cross and subsequently replicate in an exponential fashion thereafter.

    Btw, if anyone thinks the US healthcare system is going to save them if they get real sick from this virus & need high level care, they are severely misguided.  I’ve been trying to tell people.  A bad flu season puts many hospitals at 100% capacity.

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  • Mon, Feb 03, 2020 - 7:44pm

    #46
    kunga

    kunga

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    Mucous Membranes

    Disinformation by officials hard to take.  Thank G*d for higher than average IQ of PP posters.  As per you tube by Dr. Ken Berry, MD,  all mucous membranes suceptable; don’t forget area where the sun don’t shine.  My defences include, thin laytex gloves that I will double and n95 mask when I venture out, safety glasses.  At home take 10,000 IU vitamin D with vitamin K2. Antioxidant chain, vitamin C (2000mg) vit E, zinc, selenium(400microg). Medicinal mushrooms. Dilute clorox spray bottle, colloidal silver spray bottle. Supplement magnesium, potassium, use Himalayan pink salt on food. Use stevia, not sugar, no junk food, no vegetable oils. Hydrate, sleep, pray.

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  • Mon, Feb 03, 2020 - 7:49pm

    #47

    dtrammel

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    4+

    Paper Linking HIV to nCov Retracted

    Looks like the paper that claimed nCov had HIV genes has been retracted.

    https://www.statnews.com/2020/02/03/retraction-faulty-coronavirus-paper-good-moment-for-science/

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  • Mon, Feb 03, 2020 - 7:52pm

    #48

    thc0655

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    It doesn’t take much to overwhelm US hospitals

    On a busy Philly weekend night for crime, I shoved a shooting victim into my police car and raced him to Jefferson Hospital. (We don’t wait for ambulances with shooting and stabbing victims. We can usually get the victim to the hospital in our car before the ambulance even arrives at the crime scene.) Anyway, the emergency room has three trauma bays. When I arrived nurses and security guards loaded my victim onto a gurney and rushed him to the trauma bays with me in hot pursuit. All three bays were full with 3 other shooting victims! My guy had to wait while being examined by a triage nurse. The hospital went on “divert” status so police would take shooting victims to other hospitals which meant a longer, life-threatening ride to a more distant hospital. Every critical service is run as close to full as possible for economic reasons. There’s precious little slack for a major event. You should’ve seen what a zoo the city was when an Amtrak train derailed at speed in the city. 100’s injured very hard to even reach and waaay too few medical resources. The same is true of police and fire resources in a big city. They’re designed be able to just barely keep up with a moderate level of need. Easily overwhelmed. But the budget can’t handle more.

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  • Mon, Feb 03, 2020 - 8:12pm

    #49
    westcoastdog

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    3+

    China censorship

    This CNN story documents the suppression of the outbreak of the coronavirus. I have a Chinese friend with daily contacts in China. Her friends told her that people who die at home are transported to a crematorium without testing. No one in China believes the government.

    https://www.cnn.com/2020/02/03/asia/coronavirus-doctor-whistle-blower-intl-hnk/index.html

     

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  • Mon, Feb 03, 2020 - 8:13pm

    Reply to #39

    dcm

    Status Bronze Member (Offline)

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    Posts: 120

    Mr Boyle and other coverage ...

    • Like the story about the resume for the weapons lab job is why Twitter has trimmed the Hedge

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  • Mon, Feb 03, 2020 - 8:14pm

    Reply to #48
    nordicjack

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    4+

    agree hospitals will be overwhelmed

    The problem with this and death rate is that its all predicted early being that people have treatment.  If you take away the ability to get treatment AND this causes ARDS so its treatement is mechanical ventilation.  So, yeah, good luck on that when the numbers get above threshold.  The real deal is the count as of this post is 20655 infected 427 dead. and here is the scary number  2750 critical.       I say only 60% of those wil survive even with intense treatment – without 10%…  so now you know this is 10% fatal  easily.  I really am seeing a much bigger issue.  Do not know how to not panic. I ran the numbers a million time and said that man kind will be fine.  But with this, you will have lots of other people die from all other causes because medical is overwhelmed.. so its going to cascade.

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  • Mon, Feb 03, 2020 - 8:30pm

    #50
    Tom Sammy

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    2+

    potential for no immunity scares me...

    what if Ncov can circle back continuously through people re-infecting again and again like the common cold?  Does that mean a continuous 3% death rate?  (if it doesn’t get you first time around how bout the 3rd…4th….7th…..)

    https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.businessinsider.com/wuhan-coronavirus-risk-of-reinfection-2020-2%3famp

     

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  • Mon, Feb 03, 2020 - 8:34pm

    Reply to #12
    green_achers

    green_achers

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    Posts: 31

    5+

    Market madness

    The US markets make sense to me, at least for now. Are central banks not still creating massive amounts of credit? Is that free money not still looking for maximum return and/or safety? Wouldn’t the US markets appear to be a “safe haven” during any international crisis, but especially in one grossly affecting the economic activity in one of our biggest rivals? Sure, it will eventually dawn on everyone that our “rival” is also the major supplier of the stuff that makes a big part of our economy run. But it still remains that their markets, and every other market on Earth, is a competitor for investment dollars.

    So I guess the question is whether the markets will look at it one way or the other. Or whether market sentiment might be volatile on this measure. Perhaps Friday it looked one way, today, not so much. I decided a long time ago that it was all a rigged game, and the only way to win against a rigged game is to not play.

    As to the effects on our major rival/partner, I am curious as to why so many of the more whacko conspiracy sources out there seem to be pointing to China as the source of a weaponized virus. “Escaped” they say, from the bioweapons labs. But why would China be developing a weapon designed to have maximum impact on their own predominate race? It would make a lot more sense to me to cast a wary eye at the two superpowers most capable of supporting such a program that also happen to have populations that are either predominately Caucasian, or whose historic governing elite is Caucasian. Just saying.

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  • Mon, Feb 03, 2020 - 8:41pm

    #51
    kunga

    kunga

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    Posts: 84

    3+

    In the hospital

    I recently had elective major surgery a top hospital, out of state.  My surgeon was the best but not supportive/ educated in pre or post surgery diet and supplements.  I was put in a recovery center, but I basically broke out of there at the minimum time of two weeks. Mainly because I couldn’t obtain the nutrition I wanted.  I was given a multi vitamin, but also on high dose antibiotics. I begged my vitamin C but couldn’t get probiotics to stop the antibiotic caused diarrhea, or the higher dose magnesium I need. Three months and my gut is still recovering. I sent them my supplement list pre surgery, but obviously ignored.  Hopefully, you have an aggressive health advocate.  For me, I will do everything to stay out of the hospital.

    SO, be sure you have a primary care person who is on the same page with you who can order

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  • Mon, Feb 03, 2020 - 9:18pm

    #52
    westcoastdog

    westcoastdog

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    Posts: 16

    Immune globulin

    Immune (gamma) globulin injections have been used to fight virus infections. In 1960, Chile had a major earthquake, and Peace Corps volunteers were sent. Many of the volunteers were given immune globulin injections, and not one of them became infected with hepatitis A. Most of the non-injected volunteers became infected.

    In 1973, I traveled overland from Europe to India and Nepal. I had heard that overlanders were vulnerable to hep A, so when I was in Athens, I went to a pharmacy and got an injection. A few weeks later, I got a second injection in New Dehli, also at a pharmacy. When I was in Kathmandu, I had bronchitis and went to a hospital run by husband and wife doctors from San Francisco, my home town. I asked about the prevalence of hep A among overlanders, and was told that a third were infected!

    I found a reference indicating that a type of globulin was effective for SARS. From Nature: Developing high titers of anti-SARS hyperimmune globulin to provide an alternative pathway for emergent future prevention and treatment of SARS.

    If I think I have been exposed to the coronavirus, I will ask my doctor for an immune globulin injection. Perhaps Kaiser may have the anti-SARS hyperimmune globulin.

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  • Mon, Feb 03, 2020 - 9:20pm

    Reply to #29
    Airie

    Airie

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    1+

    Are non-asians immune?

    https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.01.26.919985v1.full

     

    “We also noticed that the only Asian donor (male) has a much higher ACE2-expressing cell ratio than white and African American donors (2.50% vs. 0.47% of all cells). This might explain the observation that the new Coronavirus pandemic and previous SARS-Cov pandemic are concentrated in the Asian area.”

     

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  • Mon, Feb 03, 2020 - 10:04pm

    #53
    jbuck

    jbuck

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    Posts: 4

    1+

    Environmental respiratory stressors

    Yesterday in Denver it was 74 degrees … yes on February 2.  I heard we tied a record set in 1934 so I guess it’s not unheard of.

    Today the high was 30, I think, and we’re expecting 7 – 14″ of snow … much more seasonal and, since I’m from here, comforting to me (it’s a water thing, and I like winter).

    The reason any of that is topical is today I was reminded of why winter has become so unpleasant – Mag Chloride or MgCl2 and other products which contain CaCl2 (I think used commercially as a desiccant) get sprayed all over the streets before and as it snows.  This is to “make things better”.

    Sea spray would be one thing with mostly NaCl in lower concentrations (we don’t have that here) but after a month of fall-like weather and the splashy conditions driving to work this morning, I feel it in my whole airway.  My nose has a mildly burning dryness.  (This goes away with nasal irrigation – I like a netti pot myself.)  My throat feels kind of dry even though it is not and I have the faintest rattle right below my trachea but little bit of a dry cough.

    This is a familiar pattern established over many years of paying at least cursory attention to my body and discussing with others.  This is how I and a lot of people I know live when the roads are bad.  For me, it lasts until another snow-pack covers it up or a spring rain washes it away.

    I assume the rest of the US that has winter uses similar products on the roads.  So I wonder – do other people experience low-grade, chronic respiratory irritation they can correlate with weather and maybe with products related to weather?  And what impact does that have on the immune system? (like I could imagine all kinds of problems and I can imagine a perverse benefit of drying out the nasal passage would make it inhospitable to pathogens.)

    If such respiratory irritation occurs in the US, how does that interact with infectious respiratory diseases?  Make them more infections?  More serious in an individual?  No effect? Other?

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  • Mon, Feb 03, 2020 - 10:04pm

    Reply to #39
    Mr Curious

    Mr Curious

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    1+

    Francis Boyle interview

    My overall impression of the interview is that he made some very serious claims based on mostly opinion.

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  • Mon, Feb 03, 2020 - 10:19pm

    #54

    Agent700

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    Posts: 37

    8+

    Shenzhen Report

    Here is the Shenzhen daily report, just released:

    Shenzhen confirmed another 43 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) infection cases on Feb. 3, adding the total number of confirmed cases in the city to 269, according to the latest figures released by the Health Commission of Shenzhen Municipality today.

    Of the confirmed cases, 129 are male and 140 are female.

    In terms of district distribution, 54 cases were reported in Futian District, 52 in Nanshan District, 41 in Longgang District, 33 in Bao’an District, 30 in Longhua District, 19 in Luohu District, 8 in Guangming District, 6 in Pingshan District, 3 in Yantian District, and 2 in Dapeng New District. Another21 cases were detected upon entry to the city (from the airport, bus stations, ferry terminals, checkpoints and roadblocks etc.).

    Currently, 10 patients are in critical condition, 19 in severe condition and 10 have been discharged from hospital. There has been no death report so far.

    All 259 patients are being treated at Shenzhen No. 3 People’s Hospital. 904 people in close contact with the patients are under medical observation.

    Still very, very quiet. Street sweepers operating 24/7 but with very little fluid, I’m really not sure what or why they are doing this. All traffic into our apartment complex is being stopped at the gate, residents are temperature tested and allowed to enter. I was questioned about my location over the past 2 weeks; was I outside of Shenzhen? All very friendly however!

    Today all foreign pilots at several major Chinese airlines were put on immediate leave without pay. We are expecting the same announcement at my cargo airline soon, but our contract and Chinese labor law prevent immediate contract termination without pay. That Chinese attorney I put on retainer 2 years ago has suddenly become quite valuable and is working diligently for me..

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  • Mon, Feb 03, 2020 - 10:28pm

    #55
    Matties

    Matties

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    Posts: 95

    RE Are non-asians immune?

    Good find. I saw this study but ignored it when i saw the sample size. Still i missed that these numbers where mentioned.

    We all hope these numbers are correct and mean something.

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  • Mon, Feb 03, 2020 - 10:50pm

    #56

    dtrammel

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    Joined: May 03 2011

    Posts: 229

    2+

    Agent 700

    Thank you for your posts. Please stay safe.

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  • Tue, Feb 04, 2020 - 12:05am

    #57
    Ben Burke

    Ben Burke

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    Posts: 11

    2+

    MSM might be catching up?

    There’s a couple of reports on cnbc that are starting to sound a *lot* more like PP!

    This one, which is economically focused, seems to represent a change in the narrative https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/03/el-erian-says-coronavirus-to-paralyze-china-dont-buy-stock-dips.html

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  • Tue, Feb 04, 2020 - 12:07am

    Reply to #47
    Sparky1

    Sparky1

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    Posts: 305

    1+

    re: Paper linking nCoV to HIV retraction: comments and controversy

    Thanks, dtrammel, for your post and link to the article regarding the retraction. I wondered what happened to have it retracted, and so quickly. The article references comments that took issue with the methodology and unscientific language (e.g., “uncanny”) used in the study.

    Delving into the comments section of the original study posted by the authors, I found this comment by co-author Prashant Pradhan re: their retraction:

    “This is a preliminary study. Considering the grave situation, it was shared in BioRxiv as soon as possible to have creative discussion on the fast evolution of SARS-like corona viruses. It was not our intention to feed into the conspiracy theories and no such claims are made here. While we appreciate the criticisms and comments provided by scientific colleagues at BioRxiv forum and elsewhere, the story has been differently interpreted and shared by social media and news platforms. We have positively received all criticisms and comments. To avoid further misinterpretation and confusions world-over, we have decided to withdraw the current version of the preprint and will get back with a revised version after reanalysis, addressing the comments and concerns. Thank you to all who contributed in this open-review process.
    : Authors of the Manuscript”

    The comments are worth a read even for those, like me, that are not schooled in bioinfomatics. There’s a lively debate, some very technical, but it is clear that there are those that still feel that the study raises important questions regardless some weaknesses in methodology.

    Several commenters questioned why one of the bat coronavirus samples used in the study was collected in 2013 but uploaded into the genetic sequencing database by the Wuhan Institute of Virology days after the article was posted.

    (Note: researchers use the NLM/NCBI BLAST program, “BLAST finds regions of similarity between biological sequences. The program compares nucleotide or protein sequences to sequence databases and calculates the statistical significance.” They created a new BLAST database focused on nCoV sequences.)

    Commenter “torque”:
    “Jason, I took a look at the blast results. The Wuhan seafood market virus does seem to match the bat coronavirus. However, if you click on the Accession (QHR63250.1 and QHR63300.1) you can see that both were submitted on the same day, 27-JAN-2020 by CAS Key Laboratory of Special Pathogens, Wuhan Institute of Virology. There are some subtle differences in “ORIGIN”. It may be instructive to see what those differences are.”
    “(For anyone else that was wondering, the notes indicate QHR63300.1 was collected 24-Jul-2013 – fecal swab from bats. But still it was submitted into the system on 27-Jan-2020.)”

    Commenter, Anon:
    “I noticed that several people have pointed out that QHR63300.1 has all of the same insertions and is from Bat. Can anyone explain why this is the only Bat CoV with these insertions?
    If you search for matches to QHR63300.1 the best hit by far is the Wuhan Seafood Market CoV, which infects humans.
    It’s also hard to understand why QHR63300.1 was uploaded 4 days ago (Jan 27, 2020) from Wuhan Institute of Virology.”

    It is the “spike glycoprotein [Bat coronavirus] GenBank: QHR63300.1″ that was uploaded after the study posted.

    Honestly, this is a bit out of my skill set and I’m not sure what to make of the above. But I find it curious, and would be interested to hear others’ perhaps better informed take on this.

    Note: For those who really want to dig deeper, commenter Alex Crits-Christoph provides a concise step-by-step tutorial on using the BLAST program with the protein sequences in question.

     

     

     

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  • Tue, Feb 04, 2020 - 5:29am

    #58
    Tom Sammy

    Tom Sammy

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    Ncov came from a lab theory

    Another supporting article.  Nice summary of Ncov designed in a lab theory.  Includes references to multiple scientists reaching similar conclusions.

     

    https://www.naturalnews.com/2020-02-03-the-coronavirus-was-engineered-by-scientists-in-a-lab.html

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  • Tue, Feb 04, 2020 - 5:34am

    Reply to #34
    km64

    km64

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    5+

    Just so everyone is clear, this Dr Francis Boyle is a Doctor of Philosophy and a law professor. He is an expert in bio-chemical LAW, not a medical expert.

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  • Tue, Feb 04, 2020 - 5:54am

    Reply to #53
    BillL

    BillL

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    Posts: 55

    environmental respiratory stressors...

    jbuck…ever look up instead of down?

    http://www.geoengineeringwatch.org

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  • Tue, Feb 04, 2020 - 7:18am

    Reply to #48
    RebelYell

    RebelYell

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    Posts: 15

    noridjack - your math is wrong

    “The real deal is the count as of this post is 20655 infected 427 dead. and here is the scary number 2750 critical. I say only 60% of those wil survive even with intense treatment – without 10%… so now you know this is 10% fatal easily.”

    You are forgetting the lag.  Cases do not become serious instantly.  I have no idea how many days it takes before a case becomes serious, but if we were to use 6 days as the number (and from the Lancet study we have a case doubling rate of 6.4 days) then I expect the CFR to be twice what you are suggesting.  I agree this is potentially horrendous.

    The other side of the coin is that “serious” is completely undefined.  “Serious” might just mean that the case would – in the normal course of events – require hospital admission.  And we have some early data that only 17% of those cases develop ARDS.

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  • Tue, Feb 04, 2020 - 7:28am

    Reply to #39
    RebelYell

    RebelYell

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    Francis Boyle claims

    “My overall impression of the interview is that he made some very serious claims based on mostly opinion.”

    I agree with this.  I would list the claims as follows:

    1.  Several countries, including the US, Russians, Canadians, British, French and Chinese, are aggressively developing bioweapons including viruses similar to the corona virus.

    I think this claim is within his sphere of expertise and likely to be correct.

    2.  The Wuhan lab was used for such research.

    Again I think this claim is within his sphere of expertise and likely to be correct.

    3.  The corona virus epidemic is caused by the inadvertant release of such a weapon from the Wuhan lab.

    Here he is clearly guessing – and he acknowledges this himself.  He claims Occam’s razor supports his position.  I have no data with which to judge this.  What is the chance of a weapon escaping?  What is the chance of such a virus arising naturally?  How many bio weapon labs are there in the world and where are they?  If we knew the answers to these questions we could make an estimate of the relative likelihood of the virus arising naturally vs escaping from a lab – but we don’t know them.

    I doubt he is really in a good position to judge this either – and his personal bias is shining through loud and clear.

    4.  Pirbright have a vaccine and he has the patent on his desk.

    He admits he hasn’t even read the patent, so how on earth does he know that it is a for a vaccine to 2019-nCov?  This appears to be pure hyperbole.

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  • Tue, Feb 04, 2020 - 7:54am

    #59
    analuizasavi

    analuizasavi

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    3+

    Regarding the theory of China burning that many corpses:

     

    Burning corpses releases SO2, witch you can track real time in the world.

    The micro region where all the crematoriums are located in Wuhan has levels about 4x higher than the highest level in Pequim. Moving like a few blocks from that region you already have levels much lower. I wasn’t able to find any spot in the whole map (of the world) higher levels than this small region with all the crematorium.

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  • Tue, Feb 04, 2020 - 9:05am

    Reply to #48
    DLWELD

    DLWELD

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    Speaking of math, a bit puzzled here – we hear death rates like 2% or 8% – low numbers like that, but we also see in the rollup stats from today (Feb04): Deaths 427, and recovered 664. Does that mean out of 1091 people, 60% recovered and 40% died? Am I missing something?

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  • Tue, Feb 04, 2020 - 9:43am

    #60

    George Karpouzis

    Status Silver Member (Offline)

    Joined: Feb 17 2009

    Posts: 157

    2+

    Market could care less

    Up 600 points in 2 days

    media has practically ignored this story

     

     

     

     

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  • Tue, Feb 04, 2020 - 9:51am

    #61
    hail

    hail

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    Posts: 16

    1+

    China central bank to rescue

    https://www.cnn.com/2020/02/04/investing/dow-stock-market-rally-coronavirus/index.html

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  • Tue, Feb 04, 2020 - 9:54am

    Reply to #29
    gyurash

    gyurash

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    2+

    Immunity

    Reading the linked study, it is likely much too early to estimate infection rates for different populations. It looks like all humans carry the receptor this virus uses, the variable is in how many. Accordingly, I don’t see how this would effect how contagious the virus will be around the globe. A receptor is a receptor, unless as the study noted there are other not yet identified dependencies. However, as a point of conjecture based on the numbers at hand, it could make a difference in how likely progression of the illness is into ARDS for different population groups. We should start seeing trends like this developing over the next couple of weeks if true. Something to watch for. Depending on which group you belong to, it could make the difference on the viability of home treatment. However, unless you can hole up somewhere until a vaccination comes out, I think a whole lot of us are going to get sick. Like some of the other things we follow at PP, make plans to try and mitigate the worst case, then be happy if afterwards you don’t need it.

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  • Tue, Feb 04, 2020 - 9:58am

    #62
    planfortomorrow

    planfortomorrow

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    Posts: 22

    This is the reason I ever followed you way back in 2007/08. Chris it was your data and teaching prowess and I DID learn an incredable amount from you and it will always be appreciated.. So glad I didn’t follow your stock market guesses though. Some day you’ll be right as the broken clock strikes every number twice a day. Anyways, just an outstanding public service with regards to the Coronavirus, and I thank you for this. You will actually save lives is my guess and for that feel comforted. Be good. BOB

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  • Tue, Feb 04, 2020 - 9:59am

    #63
    Tom Sammy

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    1+

    Coronavirus - could it become an ongoing seasonal illness?

    This seems likely given its rate of spread and suspected immunity only short term.  Reputable John Hopkins Dr. opinion.

    https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.cnbc.com/amp/2020/02/04/johns-hopkins-dr-amesh-adalja-says-new-coronavirus-is-here-to-stay.html

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  • Tue, Feb 04, 2020 - 10:00am

    Reply to #48
    schmidtma01

    schmidtma01

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    Posts: 16

    Mortality rate

    DLWELD, from your post:

    Does that mean out of 1091 people, 60% recovered and 40% died? Am I missing something?

    Yes, it should read: “out of 1091 people for whom the disease has run its course, 60% recovered and 40% died. The problem lies in determining for whom the disease has run its course. Based on the official stats, we can see that that would be 1,091/20,676 or 5.3%. What’s going on with the remaining 95% of people is to be determined… Based on the 14-day median time lag between diagnosis and death and the fact that deaths occur quicker than “recoveries,” this remains the biggest unknown at this point.

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  • Tue, Feb 04, 2020 - 10:03am

    Reply to #60
    Tom Sammy

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    4+

    insane market

    I am starting to wonder what, if anything can stop this non-sensical market euphoria greed driven trump fanatical money printing monster of a market!!!

    If we get a critical asteroid hit  tomorrow, tsla will prob be up 15%  ☄️   😀

     

     

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  • Tue, Feb 04, 2020 - 10:27am

    #64
    westcoastdog

    westcoastdog

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    Posts: 16

    2+

    Japanese coronavirus test failure

    “Japan’s health ministry said on Tuesday that the new coronavirus has been detected in three people whose initial test results were negative.”

    It appears the current test does not detect low levels of virus in the early stages of infection.  If true, this is terrible news.

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  • Tue, Feb 04, 2020 - 10:34am

    Reply to #60

    Mark_BC

    Status Bronze Member (Offline)

    Joined: Apr 30 2010

    Posts: 341

    1+

    The worse things get, the higher the faang stocks will go. The reason Apple hasn’t gone on a tear in the last week is that it actually has comparably decent fundamentals and doesn’t need support. The virus is actually holding it down. Tesla is a basket case so the Fed has to directly intervene and shovel money into it. The ESF has their computers hooked up to the stock market. We will not get a deflationary crash, except possibly at the very end if those in power want to shed some blood. Not sure why they would though as the assets to be bought up on the cheap in such a case have little intrinsic value. We will have a hyperinfltionary crash instead. Kicking myself for ever letting the deflationists affect my financial decisions, against my own intuition. Hopefully theres still time to make a million off of it.

    Tesla to $4000 and beyond!!!!

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  • Tue, Feb 04, 2020 - 10:53am

    #65
    schmidtma01

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    2+

    The disease pyramid, active vs passive surveillance, and statistics

    The following isn’t new information for those on this site, but may be presented in a different way.

    This is a CDC-based “disease pyramid,” showing what happens in the IDEAL epidemiological situation and why we hear so much about the “tip of the iceberg” with initial stats. Basically, among everyone exposed to an illness, people drop out of the numbers moving up the pyramid. It also explains why case fatality is always highest early because people who don’t seek care, by definition, drop out early in this process, so every subsequent level up is only assessed among people who are sicker and die. I also point out that this situation occurs during periods of what’s called passive surveillance – meaning people wait for reports to come to them – and, depending on how severe illness is, a LOT of people might drop out between the yellow and red layers, so the initial case fatality rate might seem a LOT higher than it actually is.

    Right now, public health authorities are doing active surveillance – which is reflected in the statistic that there are currently about 180,000 contacts who are under “medical observation.” This means that people are actively trying identifying close contacts and following them over time to determine who gets sick, so they too can be included. In terms of the pyramid, it means bringing more people from the yellow layers into the red layers. Meaning, as time goes on, there should be less bias in who gets tested, based on severity of disease. Meaning that, while the case fatality rate may still be likely to drop, it’s unlikely to drop as precipitously as it does initially.

    This doesn’t get at any of the questions surrounding the truth of the official statistics. But it does help explain what I’m seeing professionally among epidemiology colleagues who don’t seem too concerned… yet.

    As an aside – it’s worth pointing out that this is the ideal, “training” example for students in Epidemiology 101. And it has almost always worked out that way. Where it didn’t was for SARS, where the initial CFR was ~3.5% and was later revised up to 7-9%. Just sayin’.

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  • Tue, Feb 04, 2020 - 10:58am

    Reply to #59
    Sparky1

    Sparky1

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    Posts: 305

    Analuizasavi: Tracking, mapping SO2 output as an objective indicator of crematoria activity

    Hi analuizasavi, and welcome to the PP tribe! Thanks for posting this very intriguing information. Is there a link to the mapping function with visuals in real time, and might it archive readings to identify differences in SO2 output over time, by location? Could there be other sources of SO2 that are not related to burning human corpses?

    This appears to be a potentially objective indicator of crematoria activity in China (and  elsewhere if nCoV really gets out of hand). Any additional information and guidance you can provide on this would be appreciated.

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  • Tue, Feb 04, 2020 - 11:00am

    #66
    Andy_S

    Andy_S

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    Posts: 50

    SARS CASUALTIES were 96% ASIAN - THIS VIRUS MAY be SIMILAR

    Like SARS this targets the ACE-2 Receptor cells. These are much higher in Asian males.

    So most deaths from this virus may well be East Asian.

    This would explain the lack of fatalities outside China.

    -Andy

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  • Tue, Feb 04, 2020 - 11:52am

    #67
    gkcjrrt

    gkcjrrt

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    Posts: 25

    Is this what's making the markets rally? /sarc

     

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  • Tue, Feb 04, 2020 - 11:59am

    Reply to #67
    Tom Sammy

    Tom Sammy

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    Posts: 108

    numbers

    i don’t think they have the last days interval updated yet

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  • Tue, Feb 04, 2020 - 12:12pm

    #68
    RoseHip

    RoseHip

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    Posts: 145

    2+

    How bad will it get?

    Hopefully as bad as needed for humanity to use it as a wake up call to change our ways.

    Economic activity and money have become anti-life. We can not distinguish between cutting a tree down for economic activity and to keep it in place for bio-activity life.

     

    Ultimately a patient with a lung cancer diagnosis caused by smoking, can still decide to discontinue their habit and defeat the disease. The level of the sickness must rise to the level of the problematic habit. A chronic cough or repetitive chest cold isn’t enough.

    We can either stabilize ecosystems or we can grow the economy. That choice looms before us. How will you help break the habit? And how will you help heal the wounds that offers the opportunity to look within? If you do choose to continue to grow the economy, how will that choice sit with you? Where is right action vs complacency?

    Rose

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  • Tue, Feb 04, 2020 - 12:33pm

    #69

    apismellifera

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    Posts: 34

    Interesting implication for treatment, given the ACE2 connection

    I ran across several mentions of this after the SARS outbreak– given that (apparently several types of) coronavirus use the ACE receptor to enter the cell.  Using a class of blood pressure drug called “Angiotensin Receptor Blockers” (ARB’s for short) might interfere with the virus’s ability to replicate, and buy time.

    I ran across the paper here explaining how using these common blood pressure meds might change a life-threatening illness into something more akin to a common cold.  Full link is: http://genomed.com/pdf/AT1RSARS.pdf

    [Emailed just that  paper to Chris and Adam on Jan 27, wondering if they might have some research connections to explore the idea. But it probably got lost in very full inboxes.]

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  • Tue, Feb 04, 2020 - 2:18pm

    Reply to #2

    Bheithir

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    Posts: 19

    Maybe more?

    While not an expert, why put the coffin in with the body like we do in the US, assuming there is one. Why not stack a couple bodies in at a time. Cleaning? Open it up throw a couple more in and go. Clean it only when you have to.

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  • Tue, Feb 04, 2020 - 2:44pm

    Reply to #2
    wyrldtraveler

    wyrldtraveler

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    Posts: 40

    re: maybe more

    Cremation produces ash, but some parts (large dense bony structures) do not powder like formerly watery flesh.  All you’re doing is increasing the time required to bake the moisture out of the tissues by overloading the crematory, as the other bodies are shielding the inner tissues from the heat and the ash buildup begins to perform as insulation for the unbaked tissues.  Crematorium is designed to cremate one body at a time; this is the same reason why taxis are not allowed to cram passengers in like clown cars in a circus.

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  • Tue, Feb 04, 2020 - 3:40pm

    #70
    westcoastdog

    westcoastdog

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    Posts: 16

    1+

    Safe 24 hour disinfectant

    Most disinfectants are toxic, such as chlorine or alcohol. Pure Bioscience created silver dihydrogen citrate, which is so safe a person could gargle with it. The EPA has approved it for hospitals. Subway (the owners are major investors) and Chipotle use it for sanitation. Besides its non-toxicity, it kills germs and viruses for 24 hours.  The company website used to sell it directly, but now the only source is Amazon, Pure Green 24. Go to the company website for more info.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2009/08/23/business/23stream.html

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  • Tue, Feb 04, 2020 - 4:24pm

    #71

    Mark_BC

    Status Bronze Member (Offline)

    Joined: Apr 30 2010

    Posts: 341

    So it seems Tesla had a big short squeeze. There were so many with short positions on it since so many people have a hate on for Tesla. All it took was some freshly printed money to push it up and trip margin calls so they had to exit their positions and buy back the stock. This caused price to keep rising. Billions of $ in short positions were lost. Glad I’m not one of them. But I missed out on the best opportunity of the year. Last week I was planning to buy some Tesla calls but didn’t act to wait out the virus a bit!!!! Big mistake. Now that the shorts are out, price will probably stabilize or retrace a bit before continuing up.

    DON’T SHORT THIS MARKET

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  • Tue, Feb 04, 2020 - 4:25pm

    Reply to #19
    Thrivalista

    Thrivalista

    Status Bronze Member (Offline)

    Joined: Apr 05 2011

    Posts: 55

    Russia?

    >>If the engineered virus mostly affect men of Chinese origin, what does that mean about the culprit?<<

    Half-joking. But only half.

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  • Tue, Feb 04, 2020 - 7:33pm

    #72
    Alexis

    Alexis

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    Posts: 26

    3+

    And if we all get sick??

    After reviewing lots of info and infectious rates; it seems to me that we are ALL going to be exposed,  whether passively from fomites or directly from people. I have an immune deficient asthmatic 4yo and KNOW that I can manage her at home with our usual home meds, and also I was previous pedi/adult ER nurse so can manage IV therapy for fluids if needed. I’m curious, what would your threshold be to go to hospital?? We all know that a constant mass casualty (seems to be happening in Wuhan) is unsustainable in our healthcare system as well for any ongoing period. We have stocked food and still procuring antivirals. However, I keep having hesitation knowing what happens once you are in the system… not to mention acquiring a secondary illness Also (Flu! With coronavirus!?).  To me, tachycardia without fever, spO2 94 sustained, discoloration… what will your threshold be for this new virus???

    for non-medical, I would suggest buying a good stethoscope and pulse oximeter to have on hand so you can learn normals vs abnormal breath sounds. You can listen to the different sounds on YouTube. Just use it as a secondary tool to monitoring family if they get sick with fever or cough. If you hear something weird In their lung fields, have them cough and see if it clears, if it doesn’t it could be sign of pneumonia but something that needs to be explored by healthcare. Also have them close their mouth to breath so as not to make sounds with their mouth your stethoscope will pick up.  Def takes practice but worth the ease of mind if you can manage the learning.

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