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    From: It’s Time To Position For The Endgame
  • Mon, Aug 10, 2020 - 4:13am

    #
    planfortomorrow

    planfortomorrow

    Status: Member

    Joined: Dec 28 2017

    Posts: 120

    1+

    I have gathered myself...

    ... and no longer fear this market short term (this year and next) and will stay the course. I will set aside what I need however to assure our build (Log Cabin) is finished and all debt (minimal) is cleared from the books. All the rest will remain in this market for the rest of the year with my antennas' fully extended for the month of October as historically this is the most damaging month.

    I just won't fear this as I was beginning to because of the money being made in the market and how I felt was too much considering we are in a Depression. I have set aside a good bit in the physical precious metals and hedged for a catastrophe. This cash I will deploy is just plain greed/risk, and I will just trust when the time is right I can get out still ahead of where I am right now. I just don't believe a world wide apocalypse is in the cards just yet. For this to happen is for the world to totally reject the dollar and I just don't believe a China is willing to bring upon their country the aftermath of pulling away from the dollar so totally to cause its destruction. If we go the they go as well. I just believe there is more time and I just need a year. Two would be best so I can inventory just how much food I can produce and preserve in the pantry and raise the farm animals to the age of processing for our future.

    I wish all well but this is a large economy, the world such a large place, that the printing of cash will not cause the Inflation we fear because of all the people not employed still. The world just needs to calm down, everyone do their part to make sure food, clothing, shelter, heat and more resiliency is the answer to at least a stagflation until things improve. I think of the "one hand clapping" now and just think, actually feel we have time still to fake our way a little more time. We could just be another 12 years or more before this beast really happens. Maybe something outside our world will bring all the answers to our predicament. Maybe not but I will be living a sustainable life and living free and happily. I believe many of us will. I am not going to let every media report convince me it's all connected. The explosion in Beirut doesn't equate at all to the explosion of our own financial system, and world wide. It's just we have been bombarded by so much in the last few months that these headlines are having an over reaching narrative to our lives than is necessary. I hope anyways. The news and data are really NOT to be trusted by anyone. All of it is massaged so how can we reliably put the numbers in and are assured what comes out is truthful. You can't. I love this site because we all understand things pretty well but we're not delusional, I hope not anyways. I must admit the relief I felt when reading Charles at "of two minds" that he doesn't feel qualified to even teach anything about this stuff. I get this as I feel I go 2 steps forward and crawl back 2 steps back word. I feel like I wasted 12 years and 4000 hours a year just to learn this stuff and gather opinions from every expert. Until I realized the experts have mostly all been wrong. It's because the data is so poor that nothing makes any sense but, that doesn't mean we have lost control, not yet. We just make decision first for what our gut tells us. I absolutely understand my family's needs so can remain optimistic and in control, so I focus only on this really, and I know everyone are heading in the right direction and some will do well and some will be harmed. We also know it doesn't mean we quit, hell, we are all hedging for quite a few outcomes so quitting isn't in the cards, we just need to manage our stresses as this is hard. Hard in that we have so many irons in the fire to just hope we hit on one and have some capital to weather the impending storm better. What it means is eventually we will have our answers so if having a bit of property where you can provide food, clothing, shelter and energy then you are already as rich as you need to be, so happiness is still in our future. Again, I love you all and I'm dead serious about this. I wish everyone well, good health  and are happy...Peace...PS: Jim H. I went and seen the mad scientist speak on Quantum Computing. It made sense to me for about 5 minutes then my mind went to having to hit a low, inside, late breaking curve ball and how time after time I just ran hard to first as an act of playing the game the right way as the ball was fielded by a middle infielder, left side and easily beat me to first! I never did hit them low curve balls and I am certain my brain is not prepared for the total mind fu,,ing that this instruction gave to me. I respect you Jim but what you do has never been a part of how my brain works. LOL...Be good and keep putting up your comments, most of which I don't have as hard a time as this one did. My bad.

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  • From: Best Practices For Preventing & Treating Covid-19
  • Mon, Aug 10, 2020 - 3:48am

    sofistek

    Status: Platinum Member

    Joined: Oct 02 2008

    Posts: 728

    Alternative data sets

    mm, I'm all for looking at alternative data sets. What are they and why are they more reliable? I don't "trust" official data but I'm not sure what else we have to go on. Even excess mortality rates are becoming less useful as restrictions also restrict some mortalities that would otherwise occur.

    Dave, good point. The previous graph you showed wouldn't have yet showed the death response to new cases but I might have expected a death response in the Netherland's data by now. Of course, there is always the possibility that better treatments have attenuated that response. Perhaps the best we can say is that the case increase as of 3 weeks ago has only stopped the fall in the death rate, rather than increased it. It will be interesting to see what happens next.

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  • From: Best Practices For Preventing & Treating Covid-19
  • Sun, Aug 09, 2020 - 11:54pm

    davefairtex

    Status: Member

    Joined: Sep 03 2008

    Posts: 2088

    1+

    deaths lag cases

    sofistek-

    While Spain's chart is all messed up, the Netherlands had a case spike start at roughly the same time as Spain.  That spike started more than 4 weeks ago. Are deaths lagging cases by 4 weeks in the Netherlands too?

    I suspect the non-vulnerable are deciding to leave the bunker and live life.  And some are catching COVID, but they are not dying.  Or maybe they wear masks and get a smaller initial viral load.  And almost certainly the testing has improved - more people get tested today than 2 months ago; we have no idea how many tests were run vs 2 months ago.

    So with all these factors, it is hard to say.  But: "no change in deaths = no second wave."

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  • From: Best Practices For Preventing & Treating Covid-19
  • Sun, Aug 09, 2020 - 11:06pm

    mememonkey

    Status: Member

    Joined: Nov 01 2009

    Posts: 123

    8+

    Time to Recalibrate your TrustOmeter

    I wish we could avoid conspiracy theories in reasoned discussions. Not that governments and elites don't sometimes manipulate situations for their own ends but some people see subterfuge in everything they dislike.

    ”sometimes manipulate for their own ends”

    LOL.  That is the norm not the exception, awake up and smell the agenda driven propaganda.

    ”Of course, there are problems with the data in most countries (some worse than others) but no-one has some inside line to the "real" data. If we can't use official data for reasoned discussion, then we may as well just have a free-for-all of wild personal opinions. Nothing is to be gained by that”

    And yet time and again it can be shown that data and statistics are misrepresented, intentionally falsified and misinterpreted both intentionally and accidentally in this  as well as  almost all other domains with political and economic significance and repercussions.

    We are awash in subterfuge and yes, conspiracies  Good luck trusting the “authorities” (scientific or otherwise) with the data.

    That’s the primary benefit of reasoned discussion on this forum, the presentation and evaluation of alternative data sets, viewpoints, interpretations, interpolations and extrapolations to hopefully arrive at a more accurate view than the agenda driven malfeasance that passes for authoritative truth.

    mm

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  • From: Best Practices For Preventing & Treating Covid-19
  • Sun, Aug 09, 2020 - 11:03pm

    #

    sofistek

    Status: Platinum Member

    Joined: Oct 02 2008

    Posts: 728

    Deaths and cases

    Deaths lag cases by two to three weeks. Chris has made this clear in the past.

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  • From: Best Practices For Preventing & Treating Covid-19
  • Sun, Aug 09, 2020 - 9:41pm

    #

    davefairtex

    Status: Member

    Joined: Sep 03 2008

    Posts: 2088

    cases-only second wave

    tbp is correct.  Spain is seeing very few deaths.  4 people have died in the last 4 days, with 9000 new cases.  Over the last 10 days, 60 people have died, for 28,932 new cases.

    Are hospitals overflowing in Spain?  That's a lot of new cases.  I look for stories to that effect - none.  All of them are dated from March.

    Spain's "second wave" feels a whole lot like Sweden's "second wave", which resulted in no spike in the death rate.  Contrast that with what happened in Arizona, where deaths spiked right along with cases.  Seems like it is probably just an artifact of a better testing effort.

    Here's the data we don't have: "number of tests conducted."  Without this number, you have no idea what the "cases" line means.

     

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  • From: Best Practices For Preventing & Treating Covid-19
  • Sun, Aug 09, 2020 - 7:10pm

    #

    Barbara

    Status: Member

    Joined: Dec 15 2009

    Posts: 160

    Can we ever chose to do things because they are hard again?

    "there is a deep connection between the botched U.S. response to COVID-19 and the half-century absence of astronauts on the moon. They are both case studies in the difference between potentiality and actuality — between what we can do, and what we choose to do."

    https://www.discovermagazine.com/the-sciences/what-we-can-do-and-what-we-choose-to-do?utm_source=Yesmail&utm_medium=email&[email protected]&utm_campaign=News0_DSC_200809_000000_COVID19

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  • From: It’s Time To Position For The Endgame
  • Sun, Aug 09, 2020 - 6:04pm

    Mohammed Mast

    Mohammed Mast

    Status: Silver Member

    Joined: May 17 2017

    Posts: 632

    5+

    Balance

    i can help you out in your search for balance. As you said your knowledge of economics is minimal. So let's start here ; there are basically 2 economic systems in the US. There is capitalism and there is socialism. Tradesmen are capitalists. Bankers, hedges funds, and a whole lot of corporations function in a socialist economy. Tradesmen can suffer losses whereas the socialists don't. Trades people pay the same as everyone for everything they purchase.

    As a trades person myself I find it humorous that after a lifetime honing my craft someone would doubt whether I earn what I charge. But I function in a capitalist system which means it is market driven. It also means negotiation is possible.

    When someone asks if I can do any better on the price my first answer is " well let me see. What was the price? $50 k ?  Yeah I can do better , how about $60k?"

    Or another option is well you can always go to the big box store buy a do it yourself book and have at it. Or if I am feeling compassionate I might say "well I understand you can;t afford me but I am sure you can find someone to do it for less"

    Here is a quote which I think is applicable "

    "There is hardly anything in the world that some man cannot make a little worse and sell a little cheaper, and the people who consider price only are this man's lawful prey."
    It is just a shame that Amerika is now a Walmart nation and the results are plain to see

     

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  • From: Best Practices For Preventing & Treating Covid-19
  • Sun, Aug 09, 2020 - 3:20pm

    #

    sofistek

    Status: Platinum Member

    Joined: Oct 02 2008

    Posts: 728

    CT

    I wish we could avoid conspiracy theories in reasoned discussions. Not that governments and elites don't sometimes manipulate situations for their own ends but some people see subterfuge in everything they dislike.

    Of course, there are problems with the data in most countries (some worse than others) but no-one has some inside line to the "real" data. If we can't use official data for reasoned discussion, then we may as well just have a free-for-all of wild personal opinions. Nothing is to be gained by that.

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  • From: It’s Time To Position For The Endgame
  • Sun, Aug 09, 2020 - 3:07pm

    robie robinson

    robie robinson

    Status: Gold Member

    Joined: Aug 25 2009

    Posts: 1019

    2+

    Kelp and Redmonds

     

    for years we have used,,, https://www.newcountryorganics.com,,,as our supply of minerals. I have never bought feed from them,names have changed often,as I don’t use feed, uhuh, even for my ducks and chickens. They free range and I exercise discipline when my Border Collie interferes. If you need an outside input,,,,you aren’t sustainable. My only necessary input is diesel fuel, which I am in the weaning phase, and beer. I drink more than I can ferment and distill, and am working on that.

    We are in process of selling some timber which will free up capital for fence work. We have several hundred acres of high tensile is imminent.

    lover of all things involving husbandry,

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