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    VIDEO: Challenging The Chinese Coronavirus Data

    It's likely much worse than what's being reported
    by Adam Taggart

    Sunday, January 26, 2020, 9:35 PM

Another day, another video update from Chris on the latest status of the Wuhan coronavirus:

Pretty much the entire country of China is in lockdown at this moment. Unbelievable.

Along with restricting travel within and across its borders, the Chinese government has begun heavily censoring the data its sharing with the world.

Chris calls into question the few statistics they’re currently reporting, suspecting the situation is devolving into something much worse than admitted to.

Be sure to stay up-to-date on Peak Prosperity’s ongoing full coverage of the coronavirus outbreak by visiting here.

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54 Comments

  • Mon, Jan 27, 2020 - 12:04am

    #1
    peakTheTruth

    peakTheTruth

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    If the virus were much more infectious than China is suggesting, wouldn’t we expect the cases outside China to be growing at a much faster rate than they appear to be doing at the moment?  It seems unlikely that all the cases were caught as soon as the people entered the country.

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  • Mon, Jan 27, 2020 - 3:29am

    Reply to #1

    Chris Martenson

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    Cases Outside China

    If the virus were much more infectious than China is suggesting, wouldn’t we expect the cases outside China to be growing at a much faster rate than they appear to be doing at the moment?

    Yes, I’m in agreement. The relative lack of cases outside China is comforting. But I’m still extremely worried.

    The way these things work is that as they build up a head of steam the “law of large numbers” begins to work against you.

    China has been trying to get ahead of that dynamic but always too late. I understand too. It’s a huge and disruptive if not dangerous decision to shut down a major city like Beijing or Shanghai. Very hard to make that call.

    Here’s why we haven’t seen that many cases outside China yet. Also why I am absolutely livid that the WHO and other bodies have not declared a major emergency and sought to shut down all travel.

    So I’m not surprised there’s been relatively few cases internationally so far. But that’s going to pick up here now that we’re much further up the infection curve.

    My estimation is that a single plane leaving from Wuhan today (and they still are *ugh*) has the same statistical odds of being an infection carrier as two weeks worth of planes at the beginning of it all.

    And by this time tomorrow *those* planes will exceed today’s planes infectivity.

    Just how the numbers work.

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  • Mon, Jan 27, 2020 - 3:42am

    #2
    karenf

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    Chris I didn't know if you had seen my post from yesterday

    I work in a hospital lab in the Wash DC area.  Yesterday a university student showed up in our ED with fever and trouble breathing.  He had been in Wuhan 1 week ago.  Labs were taken and sent off to the state for testing and he was SENT HOME. Presumably back to the university.  This is the current state of things in the US.

    K

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  • Mon, Jan 27, 2020 - 4:36am

    Reply to #2
    nigel

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    Karen, that is very scary

    I mean, if he is showing symptoms of ncov how will he feed himself, if he is at university does that mean shared food preparation area, shared bathroom, room mates? The asymptomatic incubation period is 7 to 14 days, so he probably has been spreading it at a university for the last week. What you just said was it’s time to panic, I mean this is containable but only if someone who has the virus is isolated and everyone who has had contact with them is also isolated.

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  • Mon, Jan 27, 2020 - 4:43am

    #3
    nigel

    nigel

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    Maths and R0 values.

    Simple math shows the r0 value can’t be less than 3. The only variable not corrected for is the date when the 1st actual infection occurred not the one I used which was 1st reported. There are two charts, that show the upper and lower incubation time frames. So using mathematics it can’t have a r0 value of less than 3, or this had to have started back in November not December. These numbers are projected infection rates, not reported infection rates, so in order to get the current 2800 number of reported confirmed infections you have to have a much higher rate of actual infections out there.

    Using an asymptomatic incubation period of 7 days based on a 1st infection date of December 1st

    1st case in china R0 1.5 R0 2.4 R0 3 R0 4.5
    01/12/19 1 1 1 1
    08/12/19 2 2 3 5
    15/12/19 2 6 9 20
    22/12/19 3 14 27 91
    29/12/19 5 33 81 410
    05/01/20 8 80 243 1845
    12/01/20 11 191 729 8304
    19/01/20 17 459 2187 37367
    26/01/20 26 1101 6561 168151

    Using an asymptomatic incubation period of 14 days based on a 1st infection date of December 1st.

    1st case in china R0 1.5 R0 2.4 R0 3 R0 4.5
    01/12/19 1 1 1 1
    15/12/19 2 2 3 5
    29/12/19 2 6 9 20
    12/01/20 3 14 27 91
    26/01/20 5 33 81 410

    I’ll note I’m not a doctor, and this isn’t my area, I’m an engineer with a spreadsheet program, check my math, it took me 5 minutes in a spreadsheet program.

     

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  • Mon, Jan 27, 2020 - 4:58am

    Reply to #2

    Chris Martenson

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    Karen, No I missed that...

    I work in a hospital lab in the Wash DC area.  Yesterday a university student showed up in our ED with fever and trouble breathing.  He had been in Wuhan 1 week ago.  Labs were taken and sent off to the state for testing and he was SENT HOME. Presumably back to the university.  This is the current state of things in the US.

    No, I’m still catching up with everything here…I just finished touring the world data (been up since 5:30)…

    So thanks for reposting.

    And, my god, that’s just about the dumbest thing I’ve heard…today.  So far.  It’s really amazing how unprepared we are for this.  People don’t have any training or authority to make the right calls.

    Every decision counts.  Every minute matters.  That’s the nature of these things.  This virus is moving 100x faster than bureaucratic responsiveness.   It’s like watching the best running back in the NFL up against an elementary school squad.

     

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  • Mon, Jan 27, 2020 - 5:08am

    #4

    Chris Martenson

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    Speaking of Flights....

    Want to grasp the improbability of “containment?”

    Then do as I did and go to FlightAware and take a gander at all the flights to and from China.

    This is from a few minutes ago (8:05 a.m. EST):

    *Sigh*

     

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  • Mon, Jan 27, 2020 - 5:18am

    #5
    schmidtma01

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    After I think 3 days of radio silence from the CDC, last night’s sit sum had these two tidbits:

    Person-to-person spread in the United States has not yet been detected, but it’s likely to occur to some extent.

    and

    It would not be surprising if person-to-person spread in the United States were to occur.

    Considering everything, those seem to be pretty game-changing statements that have, as of yet, not been picked up by the media. I am an infectious disease epidemiologist who previously worked in the public sector and I know the type of wordsmithing that can occur with public statements from CDC. This has all of the hallmarks of either knowledge that the virus is here already or at least CYA. By the time they issue an actual alert for people to become prepared, it will be too late. Sad, because I spent a few years of my career working on statewide pandemic influenza preparedness plans and this was not how it was supposed to go…

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  • Mon, Jan 27, 2020 - 5:32am

    Reply to #4
    quixtar

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    They aren't flying...

    … those flights are just scheduled but later cancelled.

    Click on any of the flight numbers to see the history. Also, the map doesn’t show any inbound flights.

     

    https://www.flightradar24.com/data/airports/wuh/departures

     

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  • Mon, Jan 27, 2020 - 5:37am

    Reply to #3
    quixtar

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    You may redo it with these values

    In one video, a Chinese doctor mentioned that one sick person infects another 14 people.

    The incubation perdiod is 10 days for most patients but it can be a slow as 1 day and up to 14 days.

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  • Mon, Jan 27, 2020 - 5:48am

    Reply to #4

    Chris Martenson

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    Re; Flights

    … those flights are just scheduled but later cancelled.

    You’re right.  I just checked the status of those scheduled flights and they are now listed as “unknown” so I guess that can be interpreted to mean they didn’t fly?  Oddly some are listed as cancelled, some as delayed and the rest as unknown.  Seems to me that status really should be known.  Any idea how to interpret that?

    Next, the image I posted in the above comment is of actual flights in the air.  You’d have to burrow in to determine the to/from status, but it’s safe to say that many of them are departing and arriving from cities in China where the virus is pretty much uncontained.

    Remember:

    Yeah, “other reasons”

     

     

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  • Mon, Jan 27, 2020 - 5:50am

    #6
    Andy_S

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    EXPERTS - "CONTAINING VIRUS MAY NOT BE FEASIBLE" - Medical Site

    This is the best-sourced but also most alarming report I have seen-

    https://www.statnews.com/2020/01/26/containing-new-coronavirus-may-not-be-feasible-experts-say/

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  • Mon, Jan 27, 2020 - 5:57am

    Reply to #5

    Chris Martenson

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    Thanks for Posting!

    Considering everything, those seem to be pretty game-changing statements that have, as of yet, not been picked up by the media. I am an infectious disease epidemiologist who previously worked in the public sector and I know the type of wordsmithing that can occur with public statements from CDC. This has all of the hallmarks of either knowledge that the virus is here already or at least CYA. By the time they issue an actual alert for people to become prepared, it will be too late. Sad, because I spent a few years of my career working on statewide pandemic influenza preparedness plans and this was not how it was supposed to go…

    First, the person-to-person barrier has been broken in Canada.  From this morning:

    So that’s out of the bag.

    The CDC is busy preparing as if this is a pandemic:

    9 hr 32 min ago

    CDC official: We’re “preparing as if this is a pandemic”

    Dr. Nancy Messonnier, director of the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases, responded to a statement Sunday by the Chinese health minister Ma Xiaowei that people are infectious before they have symptoms of Wuhan coronavirus.

    “We at CDC don’t have clear evidence that patients are infectious before symptom onset, but we are actively investigating that possibility,” she said.

    Messonnier said the risk to the American public for contracting this virus continues to be low.

    “We need to be preparing as if this is a pandemic, but I continue to hope that it is not,” Messonnier said.

    The CDC confirmed Sunday there are five cases of Wuhan coronavirus in the United States – one in Arizona, two in California and two previously confirmed cases in Illinois and Washington. All five cases were in people who had recently traveled in Wuhan, China.

    The CDC has about 75 people still under investigation because they might have the virus, and about 25 others who were found not to have the virus. The CDC is the only lab in the United States that tests for the virus.

    Good grief.  There’s tons of hard evidence of asymptomatic transmission.  That’s being just too careful.

    Finally, we’d all be interested to hear from you further about your experience and what should be done at this point from a public health standpoint.

    What’s not being done that should be?  Given that, what should people be doing?

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  • Mon, Jan 27, 2020 - 6:29am

    #7

    thc0655

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    In Philly: happy talk but no quarantine of sick Chinese student

    https://6abc.com/5881409/

    PHILADELPHIA (WPVI) — Officials at William Penn Charter in East Falls are working with officials from the Philadelphia Department of Public Health to determine whether an exchange student from China might be infected with the coronavirus.

    The student is among a group of teens who caught a connecting flight out of Wuhan City, ground zero for the illness, before arriving in the U.S. earlier this month.

    The child felt unwell last week and has received medical treatment, and is actually feeling better.

    Health department officials have reassured school administrators that the risk to any of the visiting students or chaperones having the coronavirus is very low.

    Test results are due in the coming days.

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  • Mon, Jan 27, 2020 - 6:32am

    Reply to #5
    Lisa Mooney

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    Wow! Agreed game changer language from the CDC.

    Oops Chris I see you already referenced US ICU bed numbers. We Already have a shortage of critical care nurses, doctors, equipment and medications here in the US. So even IF we had enough beds, other issues remain. Karen so sad about the University student being sent “home”. Not just from super spreader perspective but emotionally, who will care for him?

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  • Mon, Jan 27, 2020 - 6:39am

    #8

    thc0655

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    Maybe if the virus attacked like this everyone would wise up

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  • Mon, Jan 27, 2020 - 6:43am

    Reply to #6
    Lisa Mooney

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    From the Stat news article…

    The WHO so far has not declared the outbreak a global health emergency, though Tedros, as he is know, has said the spread of the new virus is a crisis for China and a risk to countries beyond it. The WHO declined to label the outbreak a global health emergency of international concern on the advice of a panel of experts who met Wednesday and Thursday, though those experts were split on whether a PHEIC should be declared.

     

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  • Mon, Jan 27, 2020 - 7:18am

    #9
    Lisa Mooney

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    https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.latimes.com/california/story/2020-01-25/los-angeles-area-prepared-for-coronavirus%3f_amp=true

    In the Hong Kong suburb of Fanling, protesters set fire to the lobby of a building in an unoccupied public housing complex where officials had proposed quarantining suspected coronavirus cases. The fire was extinguished, and no major damage was reported.

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  • Mon, Jan 27, 2020 - 7:24am

    #10
    quixtar

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    Might be interesting.

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  • Mon, Jan 27, 2020 - 7:35am

    #11

    DavidSV

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    Chris, re Chinese collapsing in hospital waiting lines

    I’ve heard you mentioned Chinese people collapsing in hospital waiting lines a couple of times as anecdotal evidence of much larger carnage from 2019-ncov. Your conclusion(s) may be correct, but do caution against drawing conclusions specifically from these images/videos as such are common in China.

    My wife has made many trips to China in recent years conducting primary research for a US Neurovascular company.  She found that their public hospitals are chronically overrun, start with heavy amounts of red tape before one can be admitted and they have no fast lanes for stroke or heart-attack.  As such, she was told many times that Chinese people collapsing/dying in hospital waiting lines is a daily occurrence.

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  • Mon, Jan 27, 2020 - 10:03am

    #12

    msnrochny

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    I Have Concerns About N95 Mask Effectiveness Against A Virus

    I thought I remembered from some past reading, that N95 masks are minimally effective against viruses for healthy individuals.  They are proven to be beneficial for limiting the impact of existing sick individuals by helping to block aerosol particles expelled via coughing and sneezing.

    I decided to do a search on the size of viruses vs. the stated efficiency of N95 masks.  Per the FDA, the N95 “respirator blocks at least 95 percent of very small (.03 micron) test particles”.

    A search on the size of viruses gave me the following summary, “.004 to 0.1 microns in size, which is about 100 times smaller than bacteria”.

    So, by my layman’s analysis, a virus is smaller than the N95’s capabilities, and this jives with what I remembered from reading I’d done in the past about what the N95 respirator can do.  Again, as a layman, I can envision a scenario where some small particles could get snagged on filtering media, while others pass on by.  Perhaps the N95 might be partially helpful that way?  Perhaps doubling up and wearing two might be worth considering?

    Chris mentioned the fever scans of incoming people from overseas at airports was good “kabuki theater” to soothe the masses, but was essentially pointless with contagious, asymptomatic individuals.  I started to wonder if that’s what’s going on in China with the N95 respirators?  Do officials understand that the masks help limit the damage that sick people can do, while keeping healthy people calm, because they believe they are protected (when the specs on the N95 suggest they are not)?

    A couple of years ago, I purchased two CBRN certified face masks.  These are protective face masks used by the military and healthcare to protect against Chemical, Biological, Radiological/Nuclear contamination (CBRN).  They typically include an integrated full face mask to protect from eye contamination (something that might have killed a Chinese doctor who did not wear eye protection).  These masks have a screw on filter(s) that include charcoal as a component, and are apparently more effective at stopping biological threats.  They used to be $250 to $400 online depending on the features, but I’m sure that price is going up right now, and like N95 masks, supplies may be becoming limited.

    Many of my friends and relatives have run out to buy N95 respirators, and have called or written me, because the are quite excited to be doing something proactive to protect themselves if we end up facing a pandemic.  I’ve been uncomfortable about whether I should share this with them, mostly because I’m not a doctor or expert on the subject.  I’d appreciate any information available from experts that might reside in the PP community.  Thanks.

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  • Mon, Jan 27, 2020 - 10:17am

    #13
    phil hecksel

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    Chris,

     

    Can you explain how an RO above 3.0 can cause a virus to “burn out”.  I also don’t recall is you shared how long it would take to burn out?  Finally, what could be the mechanism for taking off again?

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  • Mon, Jan 27, 2020 - 10:40am

    Reply to #12
    MasterOfMyDomain

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    Masks, reusable vs disposable

    @msnrochny,

    I’m no expert by any means, but I too thought about the heavy duty breathing protection gear. I’ve read up about what went on with ebola and as I recall one problem with essentially “reusable” gear is that needs to be decontaminated after exposure to bad stuff. This is not a straight-forward task and the do-it-yourself decontaminator can easily expose themselves to the bad stuff on the outside of the mask. Disposable masks are easier to just dump in a plastic bag and get rid of–while wearing disposable gloves which go in the trash next.

    But of course this probably applies to all clothing as well. So to be really safe we should probably all have disposable overalls, hoods, booties, etc.

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  • Mon, Jan 27, 2020 - 10:54am

    Reply to #1
    signalfire

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    Chris, Dr. Eric Feigl-Ding’s Twitter acct is now up (it appeared to be down last night); he’s posted this Coronavirus Data Map, seems to be updated at least daily: https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

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  • Mon, Jan 27, 2020 - 10:56am

    Reply to #2
    RedRider13

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    Superbowl

    And just imagine if he infects just one person…and that person is asymptomatic and goes to the Superbowl in Miami. Boom, the numbers are staggering.

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  • Mon, Jan 27, 2020 - 11:11am

    Reply to #10
    Sparky1

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    Quixtar, could you pls. add link to GIS source map?

    I’m not able to open/enlarge the map. Thanks! 🙂

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  • Mon, Jan 27, 2020 - 11:37am

    #14

    Bauer

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    Legacy

    My great great grandfather died in the Spanish flew, having eleven children. I now, partly, understand how it has affected me and my family, in generations. Talking to elderly relatives I understand that my great great mother and children where tight, but a father figure was missing. It has affected us all, in generations. Just had to mention it.

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  • Mon, Jan 27, 2020 - 11:46am

    #15
    Jeff

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    Corona Virus in California Bay Area

    My girlfriends niece is currently in a Bay Area Hospital, the nurse told her family there is a person in the ICU with a confirmed case of Corona Virus.  Anecdotal reports of CV in another Bay Area Hospital, not confirmed.

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  • Mon, Jan 27, 2020 - 12:01pm

    #16

    mememonkey

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    International students & Universities

    I have a daughter at University of Washington which has a large number of  Chinese students

     

    she received this notice about three suspected cases two of which are still awaiting test results from students who had been living in Campus housing (Dorms) and are now moved to private housing while they await results

     

    Very Unsettling to say the least. She’s already in mask and eye protection mode but I’m considering pulling her out of school if one of those cases gets confirmed. Fortunately she is not on campus housing but that won’t matter much if this takes off.

     

    Note , they did not broadly notify the student body!

    she only got the warning from  a friend who got it from friend who got it from the mother of a student in a dorm.

    universities strike my as likely epicenters if this gets a foothold here.  particularly as the timing was unfortunately around the winter break when students may have returned to China as well as the obvious high density of student living and association.

     

    mm

     

     

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  • Mon, Jan 27, 2020 - 12:07pm

    Reply to #15

    nancybeck

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    Thanks & Charter flight on Tuesday

    Thanks for the info. Also my understanding is that the State Department has chartered a flight from Wuhan to bring diplomats and US citizens on Tuesday (tomorrow). They are flying them to San Francisco SFO. Seems like a quick way to spread the virus IMHO.

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  • Mon, Jan 27, 2020 - 12:28pm

    Reply to #15
    Sparky1

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    2019-nCoV cases in California hospitals, more on the way

    Jeff, that’s interesting considering that the two confirmed cases of 2019-nCoV were located in Orange and LA counties. Hmmm….maybe we’re not getting timely, accurate reports?? **sarc** Per Nancy’s post, more potential cases are coming in tomorrow via a flight from Wuhan to SFX. (Thanks for the “heads-up”, Nancy!)

    The alert layperson will need to rely on informal information resources embedded in local hospitals, medical offices, etc. as it appears that state health departments are reporting/underreporting limited information about suspected and confirmed cases primarily at the state or county level, to ensure patient confidentiality (and avoid local panic?).

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  • Mon, Jan 27, 2020 - 12:33pm

    Reply to #13
    schmidtma01

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    R0, CFR, and burning out

    Hi Phil,

    The short answer is that I think you mis-read the passage. This is Chris’s comment from the ALERT:

    If a virus is ‘too lethal’ and kills above a certain threshold, it will burn itself out quickly.  The 3% CFR of this coronavirus is in the ‘sweet spot’ for doing a lot of damage.

    I think he was referring to the case fatality rate, not R0. This generally means that the more lethal a pathogen is, the more likely the host will die before being able to pass on the pathogen (likening to a lower R0).

    A longer answer is that all epidemics will burn themselves out eventually, as the people become immune to the disease. An R0 basically determines how quickly this happens. A higher R0 is more like a conflagration, with a very large and very quick outbreak, as the pathogen spreads like wildfire among susceptible people until there’s nothing left to burn. A lower R0 leads to a slower spreading brushfire that keeps creeping along.

    A final thing is that, while R0 is most commonly used, it has limited utility (meaning it’s only useful in times like this where there is a fully susceptible population and no control measures). More accurately, epidemics are described by R in the simplified equation R = R0 – x, where x=the cumulative effect of reducing transmission, either through immune individuals or the implementation of control measures. While an R0 is a static, constant, number for a pathogen, public health measures are designed to increase “x” which will reduce R. When R<1.0 then the outbreak dies out.

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  • Mon, Jan 27, 2020 - 1:07pm

    #17

    SagerXX

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    Already had it?

    In December, I traveled to LA for Christmas with my mom.  After a week after I got home (first week of January), I came exceedingly close to getting sick for the first time since the swine flu (’08?).  When I could feel the virus trying to take over, I did all my usual preventatives and got a mammoth night’s sleep.  I was definitely off for another 5-6 days, but I nipped it in the bud before I had to take to bed and ride it out.

    Sore throat (bad!), fatigue, cough (still lingering a couple weeks later).

    A woman I am dating also got it, but she had been burning the candle at both ends with a home renovation and was worn down and got knocked on her behind for 4-5 days.  Her throat and lungs became so raw from cough that when she gargled salt water, the water came out light pink (at the worst of it).  Concurrently, my son’s mother and my son (3 years old) both had sinus/chest/flu bouts — his lasted a 5-6 days and required antibiotics when he developed a sinus infection, and his mother (as indomitable a human as I know) near about ended up in the ER with throat pain and lung tightness.

    Yesterday, the woman I’m dating reminded me of all this.  It had slipped my mind (I had semi-major surgery about 10 days ago and am in the process of moving;  my 2020 is crowded, noisy and intense so far).  She and I wondered if we’d had an early meetup with CoV.  I live on Maui (air travel crossroads, LOTS of Chinese tourists), and had been to LA (while there I visited the gym twice, a perfect place to swap coronaviruses with strangers) in the timeframe we now know the virus was active.

    Just posting this for anecdotal purposes.  Probably wasn’t CoV.  Wouldn’t mind if it was, since I (and my fam and ladyfriend) would have immunity to the next wave.

    VIVA — Sager

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  • Mon, Jan 27, 2020 - 1:09pm

    #18

    dcm

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    To Mutate or Not to Mutate - That is the Question

    From the New England Journal of Medicine a few days ago:

    SARS-CoV mutated over the 2002–2004 epidemic to better bind to its cellular receptor and to optimize replication in human cells, enhancing virulence.7 Adaptation readily occurs because coronaviruses have error-prone RNA-dependent RNA polymerases, making mutations and recombination events frequent. By contrast, MERS-CoV has not mutated substantially to enhance human infectivity since it was detected in 2012.8

    It is likely that 2019-nCoV will behave more like SARS-CoV and further adapt to the human host, with enhanced binding to hACE2. Consequently, it will be important to obtain as many temporally and geographically unrelated clinical isolates as possible to assess the degree to which the virus is mutating and to assess whether these mutations indicate adaptation to the human host.
    Furthermore, if 2019-nCoV is similar to SARS-CoV, the virus will spread systemically.9 Obtaining patient samples at autopsy will help elucidate the pathogenesis of the infection and modify therapeutic interventions rationally. It will also help validate results obtained from experimental infections of laboratory animals.
    A second key question is identification of the zoonotic origin of the virus. Given its close similarity to bat coronaviruses, it is likely that bats are the primary reservoir for the virus. SARS-CoV was transmitted to humans from exotic animals in wet markets, whereas MERS-CoV is transmitted from camels to humans.10 In both cases, the ancestral hosts were probably bats. Whether 2019-nCoV is transmitted directly from bats or by means of intermediate hosts is important to understand and will help define zoonotic transmission patterns.

     

    (Was it not the mutated form of the Spanish Flu that did the deadliest work? – me)

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  • Mon, Jan 27, 2020 - 1:26pm

    Reply to #17
    nigel

    nigel

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    immunity

    Sager, I’ve read that immunity from corona viruses only lasts for a few months once you already had it, so you can get it, be ok, then a few months later get it again. I read that on the internet, so who knows if it’s true, but be careful.

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  • Mon, Jan 27, 2020 - 1:42pm

    Reply to #12

    Chris Martenson

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    N95 Masks and Their Effectiveness

    I decided to do a search on the size of viruses vs. the stated efficiency of N95 masks.  Per the FDA, the N95 “respirator blocks at least 95 percent of very small (.03 micron) test particles”.

    A search on the size of viruses gave me the following summary, “.004 to 0.1 microns in size, which is about 100 times smaller than bacteria”.

    This is important, a little complicated, but not too much.

    Different sorts of viruses get transmitted in different ways.  The avian flu viruses are real pains in the butt because they “aerosolize.”   That’s essentially being shed as a pure virus particle that can be breathed out into the air.

    These are very small particles, but not all the way as small as individual virus particles.

    Here’s some data on avian transmission:

    Poultry-to-human avian influenza (AI) virus transmission can occur from 3 types of exposure: fomite-contact transmission, including contact with contaminated surfaces; droplet transmission, in which large (>5 μm) particles contact a person’s conjunctiva or respiratory mucosa; and droplet nuclei transmission (or aerosol transmission), in which a person inhales small (<5 μm) particles suspended in the air.

    (Source)

    Corona viruses, on the other hand, are not known to have the aerosolization feature.  With the one caveat that it’s always possible that the 2019-ncov is different, other known and studied cornaviruses spread mainly by droplets (>5 um).

    When person-to-person spread has occurred with MERS and SARS, it is thought to have happened mainly via respiratory droplets produced when an infected person coughs or sneezes, similar to how influenza and other respiratory pathogens spread. Spread of SARS and MERS between people has generally occurred between close contacts.

    (Source – CDC)

    Bottom line:  N95 masks are perfectly useful for protection against other coronaviruses,  and I would expect that to be true here as well. (Of course, we’ll keep a close eye on it all in case that proves untrue).

    Also:  No mask is worth the effort if worn improperly!  Might as well not have it.  This means a snug fit where you are not breathing ‘around’ the mask.

     

     

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  • Mon, Jan 27, 2020 - 1:51pm

    Reply to #13
    schmidtma01

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    R0 and burning out, round 2

    I didn’t go out to search for this, but just stumbled upon it after my post above. This is from a CDC Pandemic influenza planning document, showing the varying effects of R0 on an epidemic curve.

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  • Mon, Jan 27, 2020 - 1:56pm

    #19
    agitating prop

    agitating prop

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    biowarfare?

    Is there even the remotest possibility that this virus was somehow designed? I don’t ‘believe’ this theory but am open to the possibility…if it is possible.

    The timing is very suspicious. The U.S. government has created proxy wars all over the Middle East, mainly to control oil, which enables them to maintain the reserve status of the dollar. Without that, I don’t know how a U.S total currency collapse can be avoided.

    Through the belt and road initiative, China will have the upper hand and will be the dominant currency. So far they have been striking China, everywhere but through it’s heart.  Is this pandemic an attempt to go for its jugular?

    Again, a question rather than a statement.

     

     

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  • Mon, Jan 27, 2020 - 2:01pm

    Reply to #15
    Jeff

    Jeff

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    Sparky1, I am about as close as you can get to the source of this information.  When a nurse of  2 year old,with cancer, tells the family that corona virus is in the hospital, I think it’s safe to assume the worst

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  • Mon, Jan 27, 2020 - 2:03pm

    Reply to #15
    Jeff

    Jeff

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    Sparky1, I am about as close as you can get to the source of this information.  When a nurse of  2 year old,with cancer, tells the family that corona virus is in the hospital, I think it’s safe to assume it’s true

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  • Mon, Jan 27, 2020 - 2:08pm

    Reply to #15
    agitating prop

    agitating prop

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    Jeff, Where are you, if you don’t mind me asking?

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  • Mon, Jan 27, 2020 - 2:13pm

    Reply to #5
    schmidtma01

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    Re: what more to be done

    Chris,

    Responding to your earlier post:

    Finally, we’d all be interested to hear from you further about your experience and what should be done at this point from a public health standpoint.

    What’s not being done that should be?  Given that, what should people be doing?

    The thing I’d like most to see is for you to be nominated  – and confirmation fast-tracked – to the post of Surgeon General of the United States.

    In all seriousness, though, I individuals should be doing exactly what you’ve recommended here as well as what’s recommended in nearly every emergency/pan flu preparedness plan published to date. What public leaders should be doing – which they’re not – is communicating the risk and situation. What’s most frustrating for me to watch is that there are actual terms with actual definitions that could be used to describe what’s going on (i.e. pandemic level 5), but they are not being spoken in public. I’m trying to give the benefit of the doubt that public leaders (or at least the CDC; I won’t speak for politicians) are trying to be as factual as they can be to avoid panic. However, I think this situation is moving just too quickly for that and they are behind the 8-ball, which will inevitably bite them in the end.

    All we can do is continue to prepare and try to bring others with us.

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  • Mon, Jan 27, 2020 - 3:15pm

    Reply to #12

    DavidSV

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    Value of Mask Wearing, Regardless

    msnrochny

    Must disagree with one thing Chris said in his reply to you.

    Even if not the snuggest of fits, the mask will stop the wearer from inadvertent/unconscious touching the areas its covering – the nose and lips- with their fingers/hand.   I read studies from a couple of years ago that plain surgical masks were found to cut the rate roughly in half at which wearers caught the flu from common, seasonal viruses placed around a room.  This was the case even though the wearers and non-mask-wearers were washing their hands periodically.  I am unable to find that on the web again, but will look some more and come back to post its link.

    Moreover, you should be recommending to everyone that they wear a mask as it cuts down on the likelihood they will be an unwitting transmitter of a (pandemic) flu virus.

    The mask is worth wearing, even if not well fitted/snug.  Though, if this virus is aerosolized/weaponized, the benefit may not be realized.

    Also:  No mask is worth the effort if worn improperly!  Might as well not have it.  This means a snug fit where you are not breathing ‘around’ the mask.

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  • Mon, Jan 27, 2020 - 6:37pm

    Reply to #13
    phil hecksel

    phil hecksel

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    Schmidtma01,

    Maybe I misunderstood Chris’s written text, but I thought I heard differently in his podcast.  your graph kind of supports the higher R0 burns out faster.

    The other thing I don’t understand is the dynamic of the spanish flu, where it dropped off and came back with a vengeance.

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  • Mon, Jan 27, 2020 - 6:59pm

    Reply to #15
    Jeff

    Jeff

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    East Bay, Walnut Creek, hospital is in oakland

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  • Mon, Jan 27, 2020 - 7:10pm

    Reply to #17

    SagerXX

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    Reply to Nigel --

    Hey — what I don’t know about coronaviruses could fill an Olympic swimming pool, so maybe there’s long-lasting immunity (if in fact I *did* have it), and maybe not.

    Even if not, I’m glad that the various countermeasures (megadoses of Vitamin C, fermented foods [kimchi, “live” miso, etc.] yin chiao, SLEEP) for sure had a strong effect.  I’ll be adding elderberry syrup next time.  Ran my supply down to nothing and forgot about it (like I said, my 2020 has been strictly NUTS), but I have a couple of store-bought bottles and just received a pound of berries from Amazon today.  Gonna get cracking on some homebrew once I’m done moving…

    VIVA — Sager

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  • Mon, Jan 27, 2020 - 7:22pm

    Reply to #12

    Chris Martenson

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    Re: Proper Mask wearing

    Even if not the snuggest of fits, the mask will stop the wearer from inadvertent/unconscious touching the areas its covering – the nose and lips- with their fingers/hand.

    You must have missed the part of my post where I sourced the info that said coronaviruses are mostly spread via droplets.  you mentioned a study of fomite transmission.

    Not at all comparable.

    Droplets float through the air.  Thus my statement about the importance of having a snug fitting mask that you can’t breathe around.

    Even if a poor fitting mask provides some benefit, why would you contradict the basic instruction to people of assuring they have a good fitting mask?

    At the gun range we just always handle our weapons in the same careful, safe manner.  We don’t change our behavior because we “know” it’s unloaded.  Makes it easier to know how to handle it – the same at all times!  No additional brainpower required.

    It should be the same for masks.  Wear them properly at all times, and you have the best odds for a good outcome.  If that’s the best way to do it, why wouldn’t that be the way you always do it?

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  • Tue, Jan 28, 2020 - 10:55am

    #20
    lambsubstitute

    lambsubstitute

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    How worried should we be if this is true?

    The source seems reputable however cant confirm the origins of what he is talking about, as i can not read Chinese. If this is true thou, this is very worrying right? https://twitter.com/vote4dongshen/status/1222159845874458625

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  • Tue, Jan 28, 2020 - 2:33pm

    Reply to #1
    mryuri

    mryuri

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    3

    nurse in bejing giving report from the front line.

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  • Wed, Jan 29, 2020 - 1:19pm

    #21
    Sparky1

    Sparky1

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    9 "missing" Americans from Wuhan rescue flight? 210 left Wuhan, 201 arrived in Cali

    Per CDC, media outlets reported 210 Americans were on the charter flight from Wuhan epidemic epicenter. Yesterday the flight was rerouted from final destination of Ontario, California to Riverside, California (March AFB). There was a planned stop in Anchorage, Alaska. Passengers were monitored throughout the flight. Anyone showing symptoms of illness reportedly would be flown out of Alaska on a separate flight(s). Media reports shifted to stating “more than 200” passengers were on the plane, with final reports that 201 passengers were on the plane from Alaska to California.

    What happened to the 9 Americans that were on the initial flight from Wuhan but not accounted for when the plane landed in California?

    https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/policy/healthcare/us-rushes-210-americans-back-from-china-amid-coronavirus-fears

    “State officials had said the plane could carry up to 240 passengers, and Zink said they were prepared for that number.
    “At the end of the day, 201 passengers loaded and 201 passengers left Alaska,” she said.”‘

    https://apnews.com/e3f13d6f778eae1dd6a062499ed889e7

    A typo–or maybe 9 people become symptomatic and were diverted from the flight to California.  Hmmm….

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  • Wed, Jan 29, 2020 - 2:49pm

    #22

    shawns333

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    You hit a nerve, Chris

    Chris/PP, you are specifically called out in this article that has come out today: 😉

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-01-29/coronavirus-misinformation-is-incubating-all-over-social-media

    See paragraph 5:

    One set of tweets and Facebook posts from U.S. conspiracy theory accounts said drinking bleach could protect against the virus or even cure it. On YouTube, a series of videos accusing media organizations of suppressing information had hundreds of thousands of views.

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  • Wed, Jan 29, 2020 - 8:23pm

    Reply to #22
    Sparky1

    Sparky1

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    Pisses me off, but maybe it will drive people to the PP nCoV videos and content

    I challenge the article’s authors to debunk any of the thoughtful, well-researched, credentialed content put out by Chris regarding nCoV. PP has NOT been fear-mongering!  If people actually trusted the official narrative (which simply doesn’t add-up/make sense) and MSM (spin-meisters in their own right), then they perhaps wouldn’t be so inclined to search out “alternative” information. This is simply a cheap shot guilt by association (bleach “cures” and MSM mistrust) to discredit and distract. Notice that there’s no ability to comment on the article.

    Yes, I think Chris has “hit a nerve”, so perhaps this is a positive indicator. Maybe the reference and link will drive people to the PP nCoV videos.

    I get the impression that the censorship has been ratcheted-up in the last few days. Expect that to increase as the virus spreads.

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  • Wed, Jan 29, 2020 - 8:32pm

    Reply to #15
    Sparky1

    Sparky1

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    Jeff, I would consider this good, reliable insider information from the Oakland nurse then.

    “Unofficially”–of course!  I’m in Central Valley, Cali, so I’m watching this very closely and taking precautions.  I appreciate the “heads-up”.  Stay well!

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  • Thu, Jan 30, 2020 - 7:51pm

    Reply to #12
    Narr

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    I have looked into evidence for fomite transmission of the nCoV virus without finding anything but since it has an 80% similar genom sequence to SARS Cov this study may be relevant:

    “A SARS outbreak in 2003 in the Prince of Wales Hospital in Hong Kong, concluding that the SARS coronavirus was most likely
    spread via a combination of long-range airborne and fomite routes” https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007%2Fs40726-019-00123-6.pdf

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