Year in Review

Podcast

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David Collum: The Vicious Cycle Approaches

We'll regress to (and through) the mean
Sunday, December 24, 2017, 2:03 PM

Whether or not you've had time yet to plow your way through David Collum's excellent 2017 Year in Review, our annual podcast with Dave always brings additional color to light -- and this year's is no exception. » Read more

Podcast

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David Collum: We've Got A Recession Coming

A bad one, at that
Monday, December 26, 2016, 1:53 PM

Whether or not you've had time yet to plow your way through David Collum's excellent 2016 Year in Review, our annual podcast with Dave always brings additional color to light -- and this year's is no exception. » Read more

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2016 Year In Review (Part 2)

And then things really got weird...
Thursday, December 22, 2016, 9:02 PM

If you've not yet read Part 1, click here to do so. The whole enchilada can be downloaded as a single PDF here or viewed in parts via the hot-linked contents as follows: » Read more

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2015 Year In Review

Scenic vistas from Mount Stupid
Friday, December 18, 2015, 9:37 PM

I am penning my seventh “Year in Review.” These summaries began exclusively for myself, evolved into a sort of holiday cheer for a couple hundred e-quaintances with whom I had been affiliating since my earliest days as a market bear in the late ’90s, and metastasized into the Tower of Babble—longer than a Ken Burns miniseries—summarizing the human follies that capture my attention each year.

I wade through the year’s most extreme lunacies as well as a few special topics while trying to find the overarching themes. Somehow 450 pages of notes, quotes, and anecdotes describing a web of interconnected concepts must be distilled into the “Year in Review,” all in a few short weeks. So let’s head to the choppers. » Read more

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2015 Year In Review (Part 2)

A bonfire of the sanities
Friday, December 18, 2015, 9:35 PM
As regards the banks, we have come down from the trees but are not out of the woods yet.
 
The six biggest banks are ginormous—50% larger than they were at the previous high at the start of the crisis—but the sector was relatively quiet this year. Hundreds of billions in fines have been levied by various governmental Rainbow Coalitions.
 
As statutes of limitations began to run out, Eric Holder and authorities declared there would be no prosecutions of individuals responsible for the crisis.
Podcast

David Collum: We're Now Stuck In A Global Game Of Tetris

And 2015 looks like the year it will all top out
Monday, December 22, 2014, 1:21 AM

Whether or not you've had time yet to plow your way through David Collum's excellent 2014 Year in Review, our annual podcast with Dave always brings additional color to light -- and this year's is no exception. » Read more

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2014 Year in Review: Part 2

Will 2015 be the year it all comes tumbling down?
Friday, December 19, 2014, 12:27 PM

This year has been all about risk—existential risk. Some of it seemed to dissipate and some lingers.  Market valuations remain risky—regression to the mean could easily provide a 50% haircut and more if we observe regression through the mean. This has not come to pass, but the risk is very real.

Those who seek risk in markets will eventually find it. » Read more

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2014 Year in Review

The year we piled up risks like a global game of Tetris
Friday, December 19, 2014, 12:27 PM

I have not seen a year in which so many risks—some truly existential—piled up so quickly. Each risk has its own, often unknown, probability of morphing into a destructive force. Groping for a metaphor—I love metaphors and similes—I feel like we’re in the final throes of a geopolitical Game of Tetris as financial and political authorities race to place the pieces correctly. But the acceleration is palpable. The proximate trigger for pain and ultimately a collapse can be small, as anyone who’s ever stepped barefoot on a Lego knows. » Read more

Podcast

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David Collum: Broken Markets, State Capitalism & Eroding Liberty

Understanding the dominant trends of 2013
Sunday, December 22, 2013, 1:47 PM

2013 was a frustrating year for those who believe in cause and effect. Markets have been levitated far above what fundamentals would justify. Sovereign debt has increased tremendously, but seemingly without repercussion. Central planners have become more brazen in their belief that intervention is the best way to control both an economy and its citizens to surprising little outcry from the populace: » Read more

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2013 Year in Review

Austerity is not a policy
Friday, December 20, 2013, 1:36 PM

Every year, friend-of-the-site David Collum writes a detailed "Year in Review" synopsis full of keen perspective and plenty of wit. This year's is no exception. Moreover, he has graciously selected PeakProsperity.com as the site where it will be published in full. It's quite longer than our usual posts, but worth the time to read in full. » Read more