volatility

Podcast

Ronald Stoeferle: Gold Is Dirt Cheap Right Now

And a new bull market for the metal is beginning
Tuesday, June 12, 2018, 11:38 AM

Fresh from releasing his exhaustive 230-page annual report titled In Gold We Trust, Ronald Stoerferle joins us to summarize his forecast for the yellow metal.

Stoerferle, an author of several books on Austrian economics and head of strategy and portofolio management at Incrementum AG, concludes that gold is extremely cheap right now in dollar terms. And he sees a new bull market beginning for the precious metal -- one likely to quickly build momentum as the next (and long overdue) financial market correction arrives. » Read more

Insider

Off The Cuff: The Last Rescue?

Soon, markets will have to fend for themselves
Saturday, June 9, 2018, 1:09 AM

In this week's Off The Cuff podcast, Chris and Mish Shedlock discuss:

  • The Visible Hand Of The Market Manipulators
    • Volatility is (once again) being intentionally throttled
  • Why Italy Matters
    • It has the size and will to destabilize the EU
  • Weakness In The EU Goes Beyond Italy
    • The banks, especially Deutche Bank, are in trouble
  • Can Anyone 'Win' A Trade War?
    • It's debatable. What's not is that everyone gets bloodied.

Chris and Mish address the latest "rescue" of the markets since Italy briefly threatened to destabilize Europe. So, the intervention of the past 8 years is still in play, but for how much longer? With the central banks starting in earnest to shrink their balance sheets (or at least taper their purchasing), these market "saves" will be less possible going forward. Mish, in particular, expects gold to reflect that heightened risk in the coming future.

Click to listen to a sample of this Off the Cuff Podcast or Enroll today to access the full audio as well as all of PeakProsperity.com's other premium content.
Podcast

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Steen Jakobsen: Now Is The Time To Be In Capital-Preservation Mode

Saxo Bank's CIO predicts a 15%+ market correction soon
Monday, March 19, 2018, 1:12 PM

Steen Jakobsen, Chief Investment Officer and Chief Economist of Saxo Bank, is sounding a clear warning of an arriving market correction.

Over-inflated asset prices, over-crowded trades, anemic market liquidity, and a continued decline in the credit impulse set the table for a banquet of consequences, in Steen's view.

Confident a market correction of at least 15% lies ahead, Jakobsen urges investors to exit leveraged positions and build cash. As for a longer view, he predicts commodities will be one of the best asset classes to own over the next five to ten years. » Read more

Blog

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LAST CALL: Our 'Volatility Attacks!' Webinar Is Tonight @ 8pm EST

Is a bigger drop ahead? If so, how big?
Tuesday, February 13, 2018, 10:35 AM

As a reminder: Our 'Volatility Attacks!' webinar takes place TONIGHT at 8pm EST. » Read more

Featured Discussion

Webinar This Tues, Feb 13th @ 8pm EST

Webinar This Tues, Feb 13th @ 8pm EST

Chris and Axel Merk answer your Q&A about the market's 8% plunge last week

Blog

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Volatility Attacks! Webinar - Feb 13 @ 8PM EST

Making sense of the plunge & what to do next
Friday, February 9, 2018, 3:28 PM

With the markets down nearly 10% in just a single week, panicked investors are asking: What the heck is going on?

And while at Peak Prosperity we've long expected a breakage in the market like this, many of our readers are asking us: What's likely to happen from here? and Are there any steps we should be taking now?

To address these important questions, plus any other burning ones you might have at this point, we're holding an urgent webinar this coming Tuesday, Feb 13th at 8pm EST/5pm PST. » Read more

Insider

The Shining/Warer Bros

Off The Cuff: Remember Volatility? It's Baaack....

And a tremendous amount of losses may soon follow
Friday, February 2, 2018, 10:16 AM

In this week's Off The Cuff podcast, Chris and Mish Shedlock discuss:

  • Remember Volatility? It's Baack...
    • And a tremendous amount of losses may follow soon
  • Rising Interest Rates
    • The long party of cheap credit is ending fast
  • The Middle Class Is Becoming The Working Poor
    • Fewer and fewer are able to save for the future
  • Unpacking The State Of The Union
    • One key question: "Where's all that money going to come from?"

Suddenly, volatility is rearing it's snarling head everywhere. The US dollar has plunged. Interest rates are marching higher than they have in many years. Cryptocurrency prices have been more than cut in half from their early January highs. Now, even stocks are beginning to wobble...

For years now, one of the most crowded and "easy" trades for making profit has been to short volatility. Trillions are still in play on that bet. With volatility now rising, that bet increasingly risks suddenly becoming a bad one -- which would unleash a tremendous volume of losses across the financial markets.

As Mish warns...

Click to listen to a sample of this Off the Cuff Podcast or Enroll today to access the full audio and other premium content today.
Insider

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So What Comes Next & How Can We Prepare For It?

Prices and incomes are headed (much) lower
Friday, December 29, 2017, 8:14 PM

Executive Summary

  • The dangerous unintended risks and consequences of central bank policies
  • Returns diminish as you move along the expansion S-curve
  • Why the current practice of moderating extremes will fail
  • What comes next & how to prepare for it

If you have not yet read Part 1: The Inescapable Reason Why the Financial System Will Fail, available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.

In Part 1, we covered the financial system’s dependence on credit, and the central bank’s conundrum: they can’t raise rates without stifling the credit-binge-dependent “recovery” and asset bubbles, but they also can’t keep pushing asset bubbles higher without increasing systemic risks, as valuations are already stretched to historic extremes.

So what happens next?  Can central banks raise rates without popping the bubbles the system needs to remain solvent? Or can they keep yields near zero and keep pushing asset valuations higher for years or decades to come?

I hate to spoil the ending, but the short answer is: these are incompatible goals.  The central banks cannot raise yields (i.e. normalize rates to historically average levels) and push asset valuations higher, nor can they eliminate the systemic risk generated by extreme valuations and leverage.

Unintended Risks and Consequences

Extreme financial policies generate unintended consequences as a result of being extreme: a moderate policy wouldn’t have the “whatever it takes” impact, but it also wouldn’t jam all the levers to maximum.

Once the levers are on maximum, the extremes generate instability and blowback, as those who benefit from the extremes are incentivized to go even deeper into speculative gambles in the mistaken belief that “the central banks have my back” while those who did not benefit express their dissatisfaction in the political arena, a dynamic that is often dismissed or derided as “populism.”

Central banks have suppressed measures of volatility in an effort to mask the rising risk that their policy extremes will trigger...   [enroll now to continue reading] » Read more

Blog

girardatlarge.com

The Inescapable Reason Why the Financial System Will Fail

Credit cannot expand faster than fundamentals forever
Friday, December 29, 2017, 8:13 PM

Central banks are now trapped.

If they raise rates to provide low-risk, high-yield returns to institutional owners, they will stifle the “recovery” and the asset bubbles that are dependent on unlimited liquidity and super-low interest rates. But if they keep yields low, the only way institutional investors can earn the gains they need to survive is to pile into risk assets and hope the current bubbles will loft higher.

This conundrum has pushed the central banks into yet another policy extreme: to mask the rising systemic risk created by asset bubbles, central banks have taken to suppressing measures of volatility—measures than in previous eras would reflect the rising risks of extreme asset bubbles deflating.
Blog

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2017 Year In Review

Markets fiddle while Rome burns
Friday, December 22, 2017, 4:15 PM

Every year, friend-of-the-site David Collum writes a detailed "Year in Review" synopsis full of keen perspective and plenty of wit. This year's is no exception. As with past years, he has graciously selected PeakProsperity.com as the site where it will be published in full. It's quite longer than our usual posts, but worth the time to read in full. A downloadable pdf of the full article is available here, for those who prefer to do their power-reading offline. -- cheers, Adam

Introduction

“He is funnier than you are.”

~David Einhorn, Greenlight Capital, on Dave Barry’s Year in Review