VIX

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Off The Cuff: The Last Rescue?

Soon, markets will have to fend for themselves
Saturday, June 9, 2018, 1:09 AM

In this week's Off The Cuff podcast, Chris and Mish Shedlock discuss:

  • The Visible Hand Of The Market Manipulators
    • Volatility is (once again) being intentionally throttled
  • Why Italy Matters
    • It has the size and will to destabilize the EU
  • Weakness In The EU Goes Beyond Italy
    • The banks, especially Deutche Bank, are in trouble
  • Can Anyone 'Win' A Trade War?
    • It's debatable. What's not is that everyone gets bloodied.

Chris and Mish address the latest "rescue" of the markets since Italy briefly threatened to destabilize Europe. So, the intervention of the past 8 years is still in play, but for how much longer? With the central banks starting in earnest to shrink their balance sheets (or at least taper their purchasing), these market "saves" will be less possible going forward. Mish, in particular, expects gold to reflect that heightened risk in the coming future.

Click to listen to a sample of this Off the Cuff Podcast or Enroll today to access the full audio as well as all of PeakProsperity.com's other premium content.
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The Shining/Warer Bros

Off The Cuff: Remember Volatility? It's Baaack....

And a tremendous amount of losses may soon follow
Friday, February 2, 2018, 10:16 AM

In this week's Off The Cuff podcast, Chris and Mish Shedlock discuss:

  • Remember Volatility? It's Baack...
    • And a tremendous amount of losses may follow soon
  • Rising Interest Rates
    • The long party of cheap credit is ending fast
  • The Middle Class Is Becoming The Working Poor
    • Fewer and fewer are able to save for the future
  • Unpacking The State Of The Union
    • One key question: "Where's all that money going to come from?"

Suddenly, volatility is rearing it's snarling head everywhere. The US dollar has plunged. Interest rates are marching higher than they have in many years. Cryptocurrency prices have been more than cut in half from their early January highs. Now, even stocks are beginning to wobble...

For years now, one of the most crowded and "easy" trades for making profit has been to short volatility. Trillions are still in play on that bet. With volatility now rising, that bet increasingly risks suddenly becoming a bad one -- which would unleash a tremendous volume of losses across the financial markets.

As Mish warns...

Click to listen to a sample of this Off the Cuff Podcast or Enroll today to access the full audio and other premium content today.
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2017 Year In Review

Markets fiddle while Rome burns
Friday, December 22, 2017, 4:15 PM

Every year, friend-of-the-site David Collum writes a detailed "Year in Review" synopsis full of keen perspective and plenty of wit. This year's is no exception. As with past years, he has graciously selected PeakProsperity.com as the site where it will be published in full. It's quite longer than our usual posts, but worth the time to read in full. A downloadable pdf of the full article is available here, for those who prefer to do their power-reading offline. -- cheers, Adam

Introduction

“He is funnier than you are.”

~David Einhorn, Greenlight Capital, on Dave Barry’s Year in Review

Podcast

Oleksii Sergieiev | Dreamstime

Richard Sylla: This Is An Inherently Dangerous Moment In History

Low interest rates are causing distortions & mis-allocations
Monday, August 7, 2017, 2:42 PM

"The rates we’ve had in recent years, including right now, are the lowest in history. The book that I co-authored on the history of interest rates traces back to the code of Hammurabi, Babylonian civilization, Greek and Roman civilization, the Middle Ages, the Renaissance, and early modern history right up to the present. And I can assure our listeners that the rates that they’re experiencing right now are the lowest in human history."

So says Richard Sylla, Professor Emeritus of Economics and the Former Henry Kaufman Professor of the History of Financial Institutions and Markets at New York University's Stern School of Business. He is also co-author of the book A History Of Interest Rates

We invited Professor Sylla onto the podcast after hearing his work favorably referenced by the panel convened at the recent hearing held by the US Congress titled: “The Federal Reserve’s Impact on Main Street, Retirees and Savings.”

Based on his deep study across the scope of millennia of human history, Sylla warns we are at a dangerous moment in time. » Read more

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Off The Cuff: Eggshell Markets

Why the market can't sustain any losses
Wednesday, March 29, 2017, 7:20 PM

In this week's Off The Cuff podcast, Chris and John Rubino discuss:

  • Vexing Volatility
    • How the VIX is being used to drive the markets
  • We Can't Handle Losses Anymore
    • Why the market is now incredibly vulnerable to downturns
  • Our Captive System
    • Until it breaks, the system is run to serve the banks, not us
  • The Death Of The Living Wage
    • The hollowing out of the middle class continues

Lots of sobering material packed into this week's Off The Cuff discussion between Chris and John. While there are signs of growing instability to be found nearly everywhere, both are very concerned about the extreme fragility of today's financial ""markets"". At the slightest sign of weakness, tremendous interventions now happen on a daily basis to keep prices from falling, even by a single percent.

The reason why is that the system is too vulnerable for ANY degree of loss to be sustained without fear of collapsing it.

Click to listen to a sample of this Off the Cuff Podcast or Enroll today to access the full audio and other premium content today. » Read more

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adirondackalmanack.com

A Murderous Complacency

Dark omens are circling everywhere in today's markets
Friday, February 3, 2017, 5:38 PM

Running PeakProsperity.com requires me to read and process a lot of data on a daily basis. As it's hard to digest it all in real-time, I keep a running list of charts, tables and articles that catch my attention, to return to when I have the time to give them my full attention.

Lately, that list has been getting quite long. And it's largely full of indicators that concern me, signals that the long era of "extend and pretend" in today's markets may finally be at its terminus.

Like crows circling overhead, everyday brings with it new worrisome statistics that portend an ill change ahead. Indeed, these signs are increasing so quickly now that it's hard not to feel like Tippi Hedren in Hitchcock's classic The Birds. » Read more

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Off the Cuff: Pinball Markets

Expect more volatility & price riccochets
Thursday, March 26, 2015, 2:41 PM

In this week's Off the Cuff podcast, Chris and Brian Pretti discuss:

  • Pinball Markets
    • Volatility & unpredictability is on the rise
  • Lack Of Liquidity
    • Becoming a top market concern
  • Capital Flows
    • May keep US markets better than the rest, but not forever
  • Watch The Bond Markets
    • When they fail, it will be ugly
Blog

The Approaching Inevitable Market Reversal

Closer every day...
Wednesday, July 2, 2014, 8:06 AM

Though we’re constantly reassured by financial pundits and the Federal Reserve that the stock market is not a bubble and that valuations are fair, there is substantial evidence that suggests the contrary.

The market is dangerously stretched in terms of valuation and sentiment, and it does not accurately reflect fundamentals such as earnings and sales growth. » Read more