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A Hard Rain's a-Gonna Fall

The prospects for the rest of the year are awful
Friday, June 15, 2018, 6:55 PM

As the Federal Reserve kicked off its second round of quantitative easing in aftermath of the Great Financial Crisis, hedge fund manager David Tepper predicted that nearly all assets would rise tremendously in response. 

History proved Tepper right: financial and other risk assets have shot the moon. Equities have long since rocketed past their pre-crisis highs, bonds continued rising as interest rates stayed at historic lows, and many real estate markets are now back in bubble territory. 

And everyone learned to love the 'Fed put' and stop worrying.

But as King Louis XV and Bob Dylan both warned us, what's coming next will change everything. » Read more

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Doug Duncan: Even US Government Economists Predict Trouble Ahead

Fannie Mae forecasts an economic slowdown by 2019
Monday, April 16, 2018, 11:53 AM

Doug Duncan is not your average beltway economist.

The chief economist for Fannie Mae is surprisingly outspoken about the troublesome outlook for the US economy. He's worried about the rising cost of debt service as outstanding credit continues to mount at the same time interest rates are starting to ratchet higher, too. » Read more

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What To Prepare For

The paths a confrontation with Russia is most likely to take
Friday, April 13, 2018, 7:45 PM

Executive Summary

  • Projecting the 5 most likely outcomes from the current standoff with Russia over Syria
    • Level 1: Conflict avoided
    • Level 2: Limited skirmish
    • Level 3: Escalated regional conflict
    • Level 4: War
    • Level 5: Things go nuclear
  • The truly crazy option to keep our eyes out for
  • Why preparing now is an absolute must

If you have not yet read Part 1: The War Machine Springs To Life Over Syria available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.

NOTE:  If you've not yet read our special report on how to prepare for an outbreak of war with Russia, or could use a refresher, please do so before reading further.

In that report, you'll find that “war” may mean anything from a trade war to cyber-attacks to an actual shooting war. Due to that broad spectrum of possibilities, preparing for a US/NATO war with Russia must include everything from the basics (food, water, fuel) to holding some cash out of the banks (in case they stop working for some reason), to having a modicum of physical gold and/or silver bullion handy.

Here are the base level preparations you should have in place regardless of what sort of war comes along:

  • A minimum of three months of food for your family plus others.  You decide how many others that might be.  A couple of close friends?  Half your neighborhood? 
  • Water filtration devices capable of filtering one gallon per person, per day, for three months.  You may have to buy extra devices and/or filters to accomplish this.  If you do not have access to your own water (well, nearby pond, lake or stream), then stored water sufficient to last several weeks.
  • Cash out of the bank that can cover three months of living expenses.
  • A bug out bag pre-loaded with your most valuable documents, irreplaceable pictures, medicines, weapons & ammunition, some cash and some gold/silver bullion.  As the natural disasters of late have shown, you never know when you might have to pick up and flee with little/no warning. 
  • All the basics in case of a nuclear exchange or a grid-down event that causes nuclear plants to overheat and explode as happened in Fukushima.  Dosimeters/Geiger counters, plastic sheeting, tape, and disposable coveralls and facemasks. Read our complete report on the topic here.

As for the likeliest outcomes to expect from this flare-up in Syria, we calculate them as follows... » Read more

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Off The Cuff: The Coming Crisis Is Not Only Inevitable, It's Needed

We'll be better off for it (if we survive it)
Thursday, April 5, 2018, 11:22 PM

In this week's Off The Cuff podcast, Chris and John Rubino discuss:

  • Manipulated Markets
    • The plunge protection team is not sidelined yet
  • Manipulated Politics
    • Trade, and possibly kinetic, wars are being engineered deliberately
  • The Silver Lining Of The Next Great Financial Crisis
    • It should put us on sounder footing, if we survive it
  • Positioning To Profit From The Next Crash
    • There are asset classes and trading strategies that hold great promise

John Rubino delivers a hard-hitting rebuke of the current debt-based global fiat money regime, along with its current massive volumes of money printing, and explains why he not only predicts the system must crash, but that we'll be better off for it (should we survive it).

Click to listen to a sample of this Off the Cuff Podcast or Enroll today to access the full audio and other premium content today.
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Off The Cuff: The Fed May Be Less Worried Of A Stock Plunge Than We Think

As long as credit flows, it's OK with lower stock prices
Tuesday, March 27, 2018, 2:53 PM

In this week's Off The Cuff podcast, Chris and Axel Merk discuss:

  • Dissecting Last Week's FOMC Meeting
    • Powell definitely seems different from his predecessors
  • Why The Fed May Not Worry About Stock Prices
    • All it really cares about are functioning credit markets
  • How Sick Is Europe?
    • Very, but it can linger a long time
  • The Prospects For Gold
    • Well-poised to outperform other assets this year

In the wake of last week's FMOC meeting, the first one for new Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, our site's central banking expert Axel returns to the podcast to share his assessment of the banking world's newest sheriff. Axel believes, as a lawyer (unlike his academic predecessors), Powell is fairly unconcerned with economic theory or asset prices. What he cares most about is regulation and the continued functioning of markets. So as long as credit -- the lifeblood of the global economy -- is flowing, he may not care much where prices end up...

Click to listen to a sample of this Off the Cuff Podcast or Enroll today to access the full audio and other premium content today.
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Off The Cuff: A Dependable Crash Indicator Is Now Flashing

RV sales are signalling signs of a blow-off top
Thursday, August 3, 2017, 10:36 PM

In this week's Off The Cuff podcast, Chris and John Rubino discuss:

  • Trade Wars
    • Suddenly arising with Russia and China
  • Modern Monetary Theory
    • A delusion that dates back to the days of John Law
  • A Great Crash Indicator
    • RV sales are sending a warning sign
  • Risky Real Estate
    • Private equity will sell fast when times get bad

Chris and John discuss the looming trade wars with Russia and China, the long-term implications of the worldwide credit binge, and the indicators that will presage a systemic correction. John shares his assessment of one of his most trusted crash indicators, RV sales:

This is a typical cycle for RVs. It’s a big toy and people are cocky now because they’ve been working for a little while. They have extremely easy credit. Interest rates are incredibly low. If you’ve got a decent credit score you can buy an RV for 2 or 3% interest and a lot of people are taking advantage of that, just as they spent the last three or four years taking advantage of incredibly cheap car loan terms, and running, basically, an auto sales bubble. They’ve kind of shifted to RVs now, which is yet another sign that the cycle is nearing an end.

This "recovery" is 8 years old now. The typical recovery is 6 years. So we already have an expansion that’s a couple of years longer than normal. It’s actually the third longest since World War II. Which means that, everything else being equal, we should be pretty close to the end of this cycle and ready for a downturn. And now you’ve got indicators like RV sales going just parabolic, indicating that, at least in that little section of the market, money is incredibly easy and buyers are euphoric. And that’s also a sign that things are nearing the end. There are lots of other signs, but that’s one.

Every time there’s a bubble in an asset class, there’s always a new reason for it that appears to explain it. But historically the explanation never holds. The cycle still reasserts itself at some point. And things go back to normal. And I suspect that’ll be the case with RVs at some point.

Click to listen to a sample of this Off the Cuff Podcast or Enroll today to access the full audio and other premium content today.
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Off the Cuff: Beggar Thy Neighbor

What happens to world currencies when everyone prints money?
Thursday, September 20, 2012, 7:17 PM

In this week's Off the Cuff with Mish & Chris podcast, Mish and Chris discuss:

  • Asian saber-rattling
    • How serious is it?
  • From here to QE-ternity
    • And wither the dollar from here?
  • Leading indicators lose steam
    • The economy is slowing further.
  • Intervention in oil prices?
    • Recent trades look fishy.

Where to start this week?