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What The Crypto Crash & Stock Market Plunge Have In Common

Only one thing matters in bubble markets: sentiment
Monday, February 5, 2018, 5:57 PM

Did the stock market bubble just pop, just as the cryptocurrency one has? » Read more

Podcast

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Michael Pento: The Coming Bond Bubble Collapse

All asset classes will collapse in tandem when this bursts
Sunday, September 18, 2016, 1:42 PM

In this week's podcast, Michael Pento, fund manager and author of The Coming Bond Bubble Collapse, explains how the United States is fast approaching the end stage of the biggest asset bubble in history. He describes how the bursting of this bubble will cause a massive interest rate shock that will send the US consumer economy and the US government—pumped up by massive Treasury debt—into bankruptcy, an event that will send shockwaves throughout the global economy: » Read more

Insider

Off The Cuff: Will She, Or Won't She?

Will the Fed raise rates for the 1st time in a decade?
Sunday, December 13, 2015, 2:13 PM

In this week's Off The Cuff podcast, Chris and Mish Shedlock discuss:

  • The Sins Of The Past
    • We are approaching 2007 levels of instability
  • Credit Spread Warnings
    • Rising spreads are bad news for bonds
  • Slowing GDP
    • Weakness reigns in the face of the next Fed hike
  • Will She Or Won't She?
    • All eyes this week on Janet Yellen

Click to listen to a sample of this Off the Cuff Podcast or Enroll today to access the full audio and other premium content today. » Read more

Insider

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Time To Review

Markets are soaring on terrible, awful data
Tuesday, November 3, 2015, 12:37 AM

Back in August things were falling apart.  Macro-economic indicators were steadily worsening, corporate profits and revenues were suddenly falling, and US unemployment came in far worse than expected.

Of course in today's bizzarro logic, that meant only one thing:  the equity “”markets”” were going to be bid up, and gold was going to be held in check.

Both have not only come to pass, but have done so in spectacular fashion. » Read more

Insider

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Investing In The Age Of Anomalies

More important than ever to follow the flows of capital
Wednesday, February 25, 2015, 10:06 AM

Executive Summary

  • Will global capital continue to push US stocks higher, despite their stretched valuations?
  • Global capital is becoming more cautious
  • S&P outperforming as capital seeks the safety of "blue chip" companies
  • Investing in the age of anomalies

If you have not yet read Part 1: Time To Toss The Playbook available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.

This leads us to equities and, again, this very important concept of being flexible in thinking and behavior. Historically, valuation metrics have been very important in stock investing. Not just levels of earnings and cash flow growth, but the “multiple” of earnings and cash flow growth investors have been willing to pay to own individual stocks. This has been expressed in valuation metrics such as price-to-earnings, price relative to book value, cash flow, etc. To the point, in the current market environment, common stock valuation metrics are stretched relative to historical context.

In the past we have looked at indicators like total stock market capitalization relative to GDP. The market capitalization of a stock is nothing more than its shares outstanding multiplied by its current price. The indicator essentially shows us the value of stock market assets relative to the real economy. Warren Buffet has called this his favorite stock market indicator.

The message is clear. By this valuation metric, only the... » Read more

Blog

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On the Path To War

Putin plays chess, the "markets" play Tic-Tac-Toe
Monday, August 11, 2014, 7:25 PM

The US is clearly now pushing Russia towards war. But if you read the signs correctly, Russia has been preparing for exactly this outcome for many years.

Out of several reasons that US power brokers specifically -- but western power brokers more generally -- are deeply unhappy with Russia right now is that Russia is committing a cardinal sin: it is openly, brazenly calling for an end to dollar dominance and has moved aggressively with China to achieve that aim. » Read more

Podcast

New Harbor: Now is the Time for Discipline in Protecting Wealth

Lower stock & bond prices ahead
Saturday, August 24, 2013, 3:09 PM

The stock market has been on an upward streak for the past two years, with the Dow and S&P near their all-time highs. Recently, though, they've shown signs of toppiness. And certainly, the macroeconomic risks loom larger than ever. Where are equity prices most likely to go from here?

Interest rates on bonds have nearly doubled off of their historic lows from a year ago. That puts downward pressure on bond market prices, as well as a tremendous number of other important asset classes, like housing. Where are interest rates most likely to move next?

For these (and other) reasons, the current environment is extremely challenging for investors. » Read more

Insider

Off the Cuff: Baffling with B(L)S

When the numbers aren't good, change them
Thursday, August 1, 2013, 12:42 PM

In this week's Off the Cuff podcast, Chris and Charles discuss:

  • BLS B.S.
    • Almost a century of GDP numbers revised
  • Fed Fakeout
    • Markets rise on non-news from the Fed
  • The Next Fed Head
    • What the Chairmanship transition likely will bring
  • The Coming Correction
    • Smart ways to position in advance
Insider

Off the Cuff: The Age of Delusion

The gap between what we see & reality has never been wider
Thursday, May 9, 2013, 1:55 AM

In this week's Off the Cuff podcast, Chris and Mish discuss:

  • Fuzzy Fed Math
    • Housing-cost methodology understates true inflation
  • China's Gold Hunger
    • Vacuuming up 50% of total world production
  • Market Madness
    • Any news good, bad, or worse drives stock prices higher
Insider

Off the Cuff: Cognitive Dissonance

These are trying times for the prudent
Wednesday, April 3, 2013, 3:23 PM

In this week's Off the Cuff podcast, Chris and Mish discuss:

  • Europe Worsens
    • Even Germany is showing signs of weakness now
  • David Stockman
    • Everyone's trying to shoot the messenger
  • Cognitive Dissonance
    • It feels like we're taking crazy pills