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I Just Added To My Short Position

Keeping you updated on my portfolio positioning
Wednesday, August 16, 2017, 1:01 PM

Last year, I detailed out my personal investments in the report How My Portfolio Is Positioned Right Now. It turned out to be one of our most popular articles over the past few years.

In it, I mentioned that I'll do my best to update our subscribers when I make a material change to my portfolio allocation.

Well, I just did. » Read more

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Blueximages | Dreamstime.com

Why I Went A Little More Short Today

The list making me nervous is growing fast
Monday, April 11, 2016, 9:26 PM

I've been slowly layering into a short position against the US S&P 500 stock market. At this rate, I plan to be 80% short in my trading and retirement accounts by the end of May. You know “Sell in May and go away.” I am now at 45%.

That’s my general strategy here. 

My reasons for building up this short position are many.  Here are a few of them. » Read more

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Why I’m Now Short The US Equity Markets

After 7 long years of waiting...
Monday, February 29, 2016, 11:55 PM

In the interests of full disclosure and of keeping you abreast of my personal investment actions, I entered a short position on Friday for the first time since 2009. Yes, it’s been seven years.

The equity markets have been all but bulletproof for 6 years, but I think that phase has ended and we’re in for a rough ride from here on out.  At least until stocks fall far enough for the central banks to have another go at attempting to print up prosperity.

First, I think that the stock rally of late is overdone and there’s more downside to come.  I have a whole host of supporting reasons based on credit markets and global trade, but we’ll get... » Read more

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Gunnar3000 | Dreamstime.com

The Time For Shorting the Market Is Approaching

The dashboard of warning signals is getting bright
Wednesday, February 26, 2014, 7:55 PM

Executive Summary

  • Why stocks may average 0% return (!) for the next decade
  • The depressing data in
    • Retail sales
    • Housing
    • Manufacturing
    • Consumer confidence
  • Why the time to short the market is looking near

If you have not yet read The Stock Market's Shaky Foundation, available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.

To be sure, there is one piece of fundamental information that has supported equity prices; and that’s corporate earnings.

Those have vaulted to new highs, despite the weak economic recovery, on the back of ultra-cheap borrowing (which reduces interest costs which are deducted from earnings), government deficit spending, and low household savings:

While the parabolic rise in corporate earnings is quite impressive, they are also historically unprecedented and certainly unsustainable. 

When we look at the same chart seen above but on a percent change yr/yr basis we see that they have been slowing down remarkably and aren't that far above the zero mark... » Read more

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Last Night’s Gold Manipulation Event

A blatant raid caught on the tape
Tuesday, December 4, 2012, 10:27 AM

We have another certified manipulation event happening in gold and silver right now.  It began last night.

I was talking with one of our financial advisers yesterday and was queried about the near-term direction of gold and silver.  I noted that the commercials had built up one of the largest short positions ever.

When they do this, it is a guarantee that prices will be subjected to a hard and fast bear raid at some point.  I've personally seen this trick about a dozen times, so I am quite familiar with it. It goes like this... » Read more