shale oil


The Great Oil Swindle

Is leading us to destruction
Friday, December 15, 2017, 7:41 PM

When it comes to the story we're being told about America's rosy oil prospects, we're being swindled. And the swindle is not just limited to the US.

At its core, the swindle is this: The shale industry's oil production forecasts are vastly overstated.

The false conclusions the world is drawing as a result of the deception and outright lies we're being told is putting our future prosperity in major jeopardy. Policy makers and ordinary citizens alike have been misled, and everyone -- everyone -- is unprepared for the inevitable and massive coming oil price shock. » Read more


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The Coming Shale Debacle

How to position for the coming industry carnage
Friday, August 25, 2017, 9:21 PM

Executive Summary

  • How bad will "bad" get?
  • What will happen to world supply and prices?
  • Who is most vulnerable?
  • How quickly could this occur?

If you have not yet read Part 1: Why The Shale "Miracle" Is Becoming A "Debacle" available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.

How to Position Yourself

Okay, here’s the summary so far.  The shale companies are burning cash and they’ve done so every year. At every oil price point. And there’s nothing in the data to suggest that will change this year, or next.

So the first question to ask is: When will investors wake up and stop funding these companies?

This should be immediately followed by: How much financial and economic damage will then result? And how soon afterwards?

Well, if the companies stop drilling because their funding dries up, the decline rates of the various shale basins would translate into the immediate and sudden loss of a huge amount of oil production.  

How much?

According to the EIA the decline rates each month for the three biggest shale fields would be between 53,000 and 158,000 barrels per month.

Taken together, one month of not bringing any new wells online for these three fields would result in a drop in oil output of -314,000 barrels.  And a similar (but slightly smaller) drop the next month.  And the month after that, the same thing.  And so on.

After just 3 months the US would be down more than -1,000,000 barrels per day when all the other shale fields are taken into account. 

Now that’s extreme, and it’s very unlikely that drilling would just suddenly stop one day. But the point here is that... » Read more



Why The Shale Oil "Miracle" Is Becoming A "Debacle"

Dispelling the magical thinking behind the hype
Friday, August 25, 2017, 9:21 PM

The central point of this report is that the US is deluding itself when it comes to energy abundance (generally) and oil (specifically).

The bottom line is this: The US shale industry resembles a fraudulent Ponzi scheme much more so than it does any kind of "miracle". » Read more


Oleksii Sergieiev | Dreamstime

Richard Sylla: This Is An Inherently Dangerous Moment In History

Low interest rates are causing distortions & mis-allocations
Monday, August 7, 2017, 2:42 PM

"The rates we’ve had in recent years, including right now, are the lowest in history. The book that I co-authored on the history of interest rates traces back to the code of Hammurabi, Babylonian civilization, Greek and Roman civilization, the Middle Ages, the Renaissance, and early modern history right up to the present. And I can assure our listeners that the rates that they’re experiencing right now are the lowest in human history."

So says Richard Sylla, Professor Emeritus of Economics and the Former Henry Kaufman Professor of the History of Financial Institutions and Markets at New York University's Stern School of Business. He is also co-author of the book A History Of Interest Rates

We invited Professor Sylla onto the podcast after hearing his work favorably referenced by the panel convened at the recent hearing held by the US Congress titled: “The Federal Reserve’s Impact on Main Street, Retirees and Savings.”

Based on his deep study across the scope of millennia of human history, Sylla warns we are at a dangerous moment in time. » Read more


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Art Berman: The Coming Moonshot In Oil Prices

Today's low prices mask an approaching supply crunch
Sunday, July 3, 2016, 9:47 AM

In spite of the recent low prices for oil and natural gas, an energy supply crunch is looming warns geological consultant Arthur Berman.

Berman's perspective should not be lightly dismissed: he has 37 years of experience in petroleum exploration and production with 20 of those years at Amoco (now known as BP). He has published more than 100 articles and reports on geology, technology and the petroleum industry during the past five years --more than 20 of those focused on the shale industry including the Barnett, Fayetteville, Haynesville, Bakken and Eagleford plays. » Read more



Devastating Shale Oil Losses

Coming soon to a bank near you
Monday, October 19, 2015, 4:12 PM

Sometimes it helps to examine one narrow slice of the pie as a means to understanding the entire pie. In the case of the shale oil Ponzi scheme, we can both wrap our minds around the scale of the predicament and also answer the question of who the losses will be foisted on.

Once we’ve done that, you should be able to simply apply the same logic and learning to other sectors of the financial universe.  Learn one sub-bubble, learn them all; like a fractal foam of misadventure. » Read more


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Mauldin Makes A Very Basic Error on Shale Oil

Beware 'analysis' based more on faith than facts
Monday, August 17, 2015, 3:58 PM

There’s really nothing much more important than knowing where we are in the oil story…but if you follow the hypesters from Wall Street or the technology lovers, you're likely to be misled.  A particularly wrong piece of analysis was recently released by John Mauldin, who has both bought into the hype and loves technology.

He even singled out our friend James Howard Kunstler for being wrong, yet then goes on to be spectacularly wrong himself. » Read more



The Shocking Data Proving Shale Oil Is Massively Over-hyped

It's time for America to focus on the facts
Saturday, December 13, 2014, 8:03 PM

Hooray, oil is suddenly much cheaper than it used to be. That's great news, right?

Not so fast. For certain it's not good news for those counting on a continued rise in US oil production from the "shale miracle". Many drillers were challenged to operate profitably when oil was above $70 per barrel. Very few will remain solvent with oil in the $50s (as it is as of this writing).

So, expect US oil production to suffer from these lower prices if they persist. But even if oil prices rise and rise soon, there's new data that indicates the total amount of extractable oil from America's shale plays is less -- much less -- than what we're being told (or better put, "sold"). » Read more


Peak Prosperity

Energy & The Economy - Crash Course Chapter 22

Why society will be forced to become less complex
Friday, November 21, 2014, 9:17 PM

In the past few chapters on Energy EconomicsPeak Cheap Oil, and the false promise of Shale Oil, we've gone into great detail to show how our economic growth is deeply dependent on our energy systems.

Understanding the known facts behind this story, as well as each of the stated risks is what The Crash Course is about: assessing those risks and deciding what, if anything, a prudent adult should do about adapting to these realities and facing these risks. 


Peak Prosperity

Shale Oil - Crash Course Chapter 21

Expensive. Over-hyped. And short-lived.
Friday, November 14, 2014, 7:38 PM

If you've watch the previous video chapter on Peak Cheap Oil, you may be wondering how any of that could be still be true given all the positive recent stories about shale oil and shale gas , many of which have proclaimed that “Peak Oil is dead”.

The only problem with this story is that it is misleading in some very important ways. And entirely false in others. » Read more