Russia

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Off The Cuff: A Dependable Crash Indicator Is Now Flashing

RV sales are signalling signs of a blow-off top
Thursday, August 3, 2017, 10:36 PM

In this week's Off The Cuff podcast, Chris and John Rubino discuss:

  • Trade Wars
    • Suddenly arising with Russia and China
  • Modern Monetary Theory
    • A delusion that dates back to the days of John Law
  • A Great Crash Indicator
    • RV sales are sending a warning sign
  • Risky Real Estate
    • Private equity will sell fast when times get bad

Chris and John discuss the looming trade wars with Russia and China, the long-term implications of the worldwide credit binge, and the indicators that will presage a systemic correction. John shares his assessment of one of his most trusted crash indicators, RV sales:

This is a typical cycle for RVs. It’s a big toy and people are cocky now because they’ve been working for a little while. They have extremely easy credit. Interest rates are incredibly low. If you’ve got a decent credit score you can buy an RV for 2 or 3% interest and a lot of people are taking advantage of that, just as they spent the last three or four years taking advantage of incredibly cheap car loan terms, and running, basically, an auto sales bubble. They’ve kind of shifted to RVs now, which is yet another sign that the cycle is nearing an end.

This "recovery" is 8 years old now. The typical recovery is 6 years. So we already have an expansion that’s a couple of years longer than normal. It’s actually the third longest since World War II. Which means that, everything else being equal, we should be pretty close to the end of this cycle and ready for a downturn. And now you’ve got indicators like RV sales going just parabolic, indicating that, at least in that little section of the market, money is incredibly easy and buyers are euphoric. And that’s also a sign that things are nearing the end. There are lots of other signs, but that’s one.

Every time there’s a bubble in an asset class, there’s always a new reason for it that appears to explain it. But historically the explanation never holds. The cycle still reasserts itself at some point. And things go back to normal. And I suspect that’ll be the case with RVs at some point.

Click to listen to a sample of this Off the Cuff Podcast or Enroll today to access the full audio and other premium content today.
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The Saker: The Syrian Powderkeg

The risk of nuclear war is now concerningly high
Monday, July 10, 2017, 9:20 AM

Following up on our recent warning about the situation in Syria, Chris sits down this week for a conversation with The Saker, who writes extensively on geo-political and military matters. The Saker (a nom-de-plume), is a former intelligence expert with professional and personal insights into Russia and the Middle East.

He shares our deep concern for the dangerously misdirected current state of US foreign and military policy, as well as the potentially lethal repercussions these threaten to have in the powderkeg that is Syria.

In this week's podcast, The Saker provides an excellent distillation of the complex forces in play in Syria -- as well as in the brewing friction between the US and Russia -- and why the risk of nuclear war has now grown higher than it has been in decades. » Read more

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Pre-ALERT: Trump Risks War With Russia

The Syria powderkeg threatens to explode
Tuesday, June 27, 2017, 6:44 PM

Trump has now backed his administration into a corner.  If there’s another suspected poison gas attack in Syria, he’s promised to escalate the situation by beginning bombings.

It appears that what I feared might happen under a Clinton presidency (and I still think probably would have, anyways) is now happening under the Trump administration.

Let me be perfectly clear: bombing Syria risks a direct confrontation with Russia.  If that happens, all bets are off. Anything could happen next, up to and including a nuclear exchange.  » Read more

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The Relentless Push Towards War

This time with North Korea. Why?
Friday, April 28, 2017, 11:53 PM

As I’ve written extensively in the past, as was the case with Russia last fall, this push to war includes a series of carefully-crafted talking points being endlessly repeated over the print and airwaves. 

It’s an ever-present condition of living in our manufactured reality, where what we are told to care about is beamed at us around the clock  in a rather tediously but emotionally-manipulative way on the “news.”

Today's big ‘bogeyman’ is North Korea.  Have you wondered why? » Read more

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Off The Cuff: The Era Of Easy Money Is Over

Debt-funded stimulus no longer yields an increase of GDP
Thursday, April 20, 2017, 8:44 PM

In this week's Off The Cuff podcast, Chris and John Rubino discuss:

  • Sovereign Sabre-Rattling
    • Suddenly, the world became a lot less safe
  • Market Misdirection
    • The central planners are doing their utmost to paint a positive picture
  • The Era Of Easy Money is Over
    • Debt-funded stimulus no longer results in an increase of GDP
  • How This All Will End
    • Exploring the likely pins that will pop this "mother of all bubbles"

Chris and John look at the disconnect between world events and stock prices and urge folks not to misled: risk is high, and getting higher. There is *no* rational reason for the current price levels in financial markets -- only gobs and gobs of liquidity being force-fed into the system by the world's central banks.

But the data is increasingly showing that the era of "easy money" we've lived under since the Great Recession has reached its inevitable terminus. Shoving more debt into the system is no longer boosting GDP. We are now simply blowing bigger asset bubbles that will monumentally destructive when they burst -- as they must.

Click to listen to a sample of this Off the Cuff Podcast or Enroll today to access the full audio and other premium content today. » Read more

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Sudden Escalation: US Warships Fire Missiles Into Syria

The global threat level just spiked
Thursday, April 6, 2017, 11:40 PM

One of my worst fears has come to pass: the US has launched a missile strike against the Syrian government. » Read more

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2016 Year In Review

A Clockwork Orange
Thursday, December 22, 2016, 9:03 PM

Every year, friend-of-the-site David Collum writes a detailed "Year in Review" synopsis full of keen perspective and plenty of wit. This year's is no exception. As with past years, he has graciously selected PeakProsperity.com as the site where it will be published in full. It's quite longer than our usual posts, but worth the time to read in full. » Read more

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2016 Year In Review (Part 2)

And then things really got weird...
Thursday, December 22, 2016, 9:02 PM

If you've not yet read Part 1, click here to do so. The whole enchilada can be downloaded as a single PDF here or viewed in parts via the hot-linked contents as follows: » Read more

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We Risk Being Collateral Damage In The Neocon Lust For War

So much so that I've upped my personal preparations
Friday, October 28, 2016, 9:40 PM

Among the many conflicts that are boiling over, the one that concerns me the most -- by far -- is the West's very intentional efforts to demonize Putin specifically, and Russia generally.

Blatantly obvious propaganda is being used, most heavily by the very same (and unrepentant) main stream media outlets that were used the last time around -- when we ended up commencing a 'pre-emptive' war based on ginned-up intelligence that turned out to be wholly false. We owe it to ourselves not be so easily led this time around. » Read more

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My Personal Preparations For Nuclear War

Peace of mind today. Salvation tommorrow?
Friday, October 28, 2016, 9:40 PM

Executive Summary

  • The Importance Of Avoiding Contamination
  • The Steps I Took This Week
  • Resources For Estimating The Threat Level For Where You Live
  • Advice For City-Dwellers

If you have not yet read Part 1: We Risk Being Collateral Damage In The Neocon Lust For War available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.

First up, I promised you that if I ever took any actions I’d let you know about them.  I toyed with breaking that pledge (net very seriously) because I really don’t want to needlessly scare anybody.

I don’t like focusing on the negative, but I did catch myself thinking and slightly worrying about the tensions with Russia and realized that I did not have a few basic preparations.   So what do we do at Peak Prosperity when we have a gap between what we know and our actions?  We close up that gap with action.

I’ve written extensively about the possibility of war with Russia, and the possible things to protect against range from minor annoyances and shortages to a grid down event (via EMP or hacking) to a nuclear war.

Of them all, I suppose the grid down event scares me the most if it involved any protracted outage of more than a month.  Things fall apart never to be properly rebuilt if that happens. 

But a limited nuclear war, or even a more broad-based one if things really get out of hand, also worry me a lot.

And I am not the sort to sit around and worry.  I hate sitting around and worrying so last week I did what few things I could to assure that I can make the best of it if a nuclear exchange happens. 

Look, even if there’s only a 1% chance of a nuclear exchange over the next five years, I personally consider that that to be an excessive risk (given the catastrophic outcomes involved).  Given how I am built, I need to prepare as best I can so that I can relieve my anxiety and get back to living life fully.

As background, you should definitely re-read our excellent previously-issed reports on radiation and the difference between that and radioactive contamination because those are the building blocks for knowing how to survive. 

In fact, you should print them out and have them tucked into your preparations area. 

Having a grounded understanding of what radioactive isotopes are and what they do to a living system is critical knowledge to have.  But maybe you don’t need it yet.  So read the articles of background and put the whole subject away, hopefully forever, never to be revisited.

I’ll be honest; I am not all that scared by radioactivity.  My view is we evolved with background radiation and life has been dealing with it for a very long time.  Now contamination, on the other hand, which is the ingestion of a hot particle of some sort, now that scares me a lot. And it should scare you too. So much of my preparations are centered around... » Read more