recession

Podcast

elmercurio.com

Michael Pento: When The Yield Curve Inverts Soon, The Next Recession Will Start

Expected timing: this Fall
Wednesday, June 27, 2018, 3:34 PM

Some day, today's era of insane asset price bubbles will end. But how? Will it unwind in an orderly and polite way, as the world's central planners hope? Or will be disorderly, resulting in painful portfolio losses and mass layoffs?

Michael Pento, fund manager and author of The Coming Bond Bubble Collapse returns to the podcast this week to offer his prediction that events will most likely take the latter route. In fact, he sees the developing inversion of the yield curve as a dependable precursor to the US economy entering recession as soon as this Fall: » Read more

Blog

A Hard Rain's a-Gonna Fall

The prospects for the rest of the year are awful
Friday, June 15, 2018, 6:55 PM

As the Federal Reserve kicked off its second round of quantitative easing in aftermath of the Great Financial Crisis, hedge fund manager David Tepper predicted that nearly all assets would rise tremendously in response. 

History proved Tepper right: financial and other risk assets have shot the moon. Equities have long since rocketed past their pre-crisis highs, bonds continued rising as interest rates stayed at historic lows, and many real estate markets are now back in bubble territory. 

And everyone learned to love the 'Fed put' and stop worrying.

But as King Louis XV and Bob Dylan both warned us, what's coming next will change everything. » Read more

Podcast

Dreamstime

Doug Duncan: Even US Government Economists Predict Trouble Ahead

Fannie Mae forecasts an economic slowdown by 2019
Monday, April 16, 2018, 11:53 AM

Doug Duncan is not your average beltway economist.

The chief economist for Fannie Mae is surprisingly outspoken about the troublesome outlook for the US economy. He's worried about the rising cost of debt service as outstanding credit continues to mount at the same time interest rates are starting to ratchet higher, too. » Read more

Podcast

marshfieldclinic.org

David Collum: The Vicious Cycle Approaches

We'll regress to (and through) the mean
Sunday, December 24, 2017, 2:03 PM

Whether or not you've had time yet to plow your way through David Collum's excellent 2017 Year in Review, our annual podcast with Dave always brings additional color to light -- and this year's is no exception. » Read more

Blog

Shutterstock/4zevar

Last Chance To Register For The Dangerous Markets Webinar

The webinar takes place this Wed @ noon EST
Monday, September 11, 2017, 5:26 PM

If you have not yet registered for the Dangerous Markets webinar, which will take place at noon EST this Wednesday Sep 13th, time is quickly running out.

Chris and I are extremely excited for this one, as the featured presenters -- Grant Williams and Lance Roberts -- are two of our favorite market analysts. Both have done truly excellent work recently in identifying the key indicators to track as the current Mother Of All Financial Bubbles tops out and prepares to burst. This will be a very data-rich discussion (in other words, you chart geeks are going to be in heaven).

The price to participate in this webinar is $25, unless you are an enrolled member of PeakProsperity.com (i.e. paying subscriber with access to our 'Insider' content). In that case, it's FREE» Read more

Blog

Van Halen, M&Ms, And The Next Market Downturn

How watching the right indicators will avoid disaster
Friday, September 1, 2017, 7:28 PM

Believe it or not, the rock band Van Halen found a brilliant way to teach how having good indicators is key to achieving success.

This is extremely true for the world of investing, where you're deploying capital based upon an expected future return. How do you determine when it's a good time to enter into an investment? Once in it, how do monitor the conditions supporting your rationale for holding it -- are those changing? And if so, are they getting better or worse? When should you exit the position?

For all of these questions, the better the indicators you use, the more accurate and informed your decision-making will be. And the better your returns as an investor will be. » Read more

Insider

BsWei/Shutterstock

Off The Cuff: The End Of The Easy Money Era

Its legacy?: Too many over-leveraged victims
Thursday, August 17, 2017, 6:29 PM

In this week's Off The Cuff podcast, Chris and Wolf Richter discuss:

  • Growing Signs Of Recession
    • Autos, retail, restaurants...
  • Dark Times For Commercial Real Estate
    • Bad enough that the Fed is worried
  • The Retail Hosing Market Is Popping
    • Toronto as a case study
  • The End Of The Easy Money Era
    • It's legacy: way too many over-leveraged victims

Suddenly, the tranquil seas long enjoyed by the markets have turned turbulent. Chris and Wolf react to the sudden volatility returning to stocks, the growing flood of recessionary indicators, the recent Fed statement, and the signs that the real estate market may have finally indeed topped out.

Click to listen to a sample of this Off the Cuff Podcast or Enroll today to access the full audio and other premium content today.
Insider

Everything You Need To Know About The Credit Impulse

And why it's signalling a coming recession, likely this year
Friday, June 16, 2017, 7:23 PM

Executive Summary

  • The case of the missing credit impulse
  • The credit impulse is the worst its been in recent history
  • How the situation is deteriorating fast
  • Why a credit impulse-driven recession is nigh

If you have not yet read Part 1: The Pin To Pop This Mother Of All Bubbles? available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.

The Case Of The Missing Credit Impulse

An enormous oversight of nearly every major economist is the role of debt in both fostering current growth but also stealing from future growth. 

It seems like such a simple concept, and it’s one I covered in great detail back in 2008 in the original Crash Course, but it remains a mysterious oversight of most here in 2017.  The concept is easy enough; if I borrow money to increase my spending here today, it probably makes sense to take note of that if you're an economist responsible for tracking spending.

My debt-funded spending today is my lack of spending in the future when I pay down the debt. 

Professor Steve Keen has this topic nailed beautifully. In it, he explains how even simply keeping a massive pile of previously accumulated debt at the same level as last year is a net negative on economic growth. A very simple and a very profound concept that still is not a part of conventional thinking.

Now here where things get interesting. And frightening. If we look at... » Read more

Blog

entrepreneur.com

The Pin To Pop This Mother Of All Bubbles?

A worsening shortfall in new credit creation
Friday, June 16, 2017, 7:23 PM

Global macro economic data has been weak for many years, but there’s now a very real chance of a world-wide recession happening in 2017.

Why? A dramatic and worsening shortfall in new credit creation. » Read more

Podcast

perfectlab/Shutterstock

Steen Jakobsen: 60% Probability Of Recession In The Next 18 Months

The world economic engine is slowing to a standstill
Sunday, June 11, 2017, 6:46 PM

Steen Jakobsen back on, Chief Investment Officer of Saxo Bank, returns to the podcast this week to share with us the warning signs of slowing economic growth he's seeing in major markets all over the world.

In his view, the world economy is sputtering badly. So badly, that he's confident predicting a global recession by 2018 -- or sooner. » Read more