poverty

Podcast

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Bill Ryerson: The Challenges Presented by Global Population Growth

And why they're so hard for us to address
Sunday, January 12, 2014, 12:11 PM

As we embark on a new year, it's important to keep the really big elements of our global predicament squarely in mind. To that end, we're surfacing this excellent discussion on population growth that Chris recorded in 2012 with Bill Ryerson of the Population Institute.

At the heart of the resource depletion story that we track here at PeakProsperity.com is the number of people on earth competing for those resources.

The global population is more than 7 billion now and headed to 9 billion by 2050. If world population continues its exponential growth, when we will hit planetary carrying capacity limits with our key resources (or are we already exceeding them)? What are the just, humane, and rights-respecting options that are on the table for balancing the world’s population with the ability of the earth to sustain it? » Read more

Insider

Why This Recovery Is Coming to an End

Where the markets are most likely headed from here
Monday, May 6, 2013, 11:34 AM

Executive Summary

  • Fertility rates are experiencing a "natural decrease" at record levels across the U.S.
  • Poverty rates are rising across the country, despite the "recovering" economy
  • What exactly is "powering" U.S. economic growth? Perhaps much less than realized.
  • Why we are likely in the calm before the storm when corporate profits peak right before an economic downturn
  • The 3 most likely scenarios for the stock market from here

If you have not yet read Part I: Marking the 4-Year Reflationary Rally: How Much Better Off Are We Really?, available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.

One of the challenges the U.S. stock market will increasingly face in the years ahead is continued growth in the Dependency Ratio. The U.S. Census Bureau alerted us to this trend back in 2010. For keen observers of demographics, this couldn’t have been a surprise). The rate at which the Dependency Ratio is growing, and is set to grow further, is accelerating:

The U.S. Census Bureau reported today that the dependency ratio, or the number of people 65 and older to every 100 people of traditional working ages, is projected to climb rapidly from 22 in 2010 to 35 in 2030. This time period coincides with the time when baby boomers are moving into the 65 and older age category...The expected steep rise in the dependency ratio over the next two decades reflects the projected proportion of people 65 and older climbing from 13 percent to 19 percent of the total population over the period, with the percentage in the 20 to 64 age range falling from 60 percent to 55 percent...“This rapid growth of the older population may present challenges in the next two decades,” said Victoria Velkoff, assistant chief for estimates and projections for the Census Bureau's Population Division. “It's also noteworthy that those 85 and older — who often require additional caregiving and support — would increase from about 14 percent of the older population today to 21 percent in 2050.”

This is precisely one of the key, ongoing headwinds that faced Japan's stock market for 20 years. When Japan's economy moved steadily into its low-growth phase, unable to generate sufficient jobs, fertility rates and household formation declined rapidly. As I explained in The Arrival of Japan's Sunset, these will not be cured by the current devaluation of the yen, despite naïve cheerleading. And neither will they be solved here in the U.S.

But in contrast to Japan, the United States is only just embarking on its slow growth phase. Its demographically challenged culture and economy will reinforce each other as we move ahead in time. And, it's not just the retiring class of workers that will massively increase the Dependency Ratio in the U.S. in years ahead... » Read more

Daily Digest

Image by Leonid Mamchenkov, Flickr Creative Commons

Daily Digest 3/22 - Eating On The Poverty Line, Will Cyprus Go The South American Way?

Friday, March 22, 2013, 12:53 PM
  • Le Monde Headline "No, France is Not Bankrupt"
  • Will Cyprus go the South American way?
  • US Begins Regulating BitCoin, Will Apply "Money Laundering" Rules To Virtual Transactions
  • Shopping on the poverty line - what can you eat?
  • Indonesia's wage wars
  • What You Think Is True Might Be False and Costly
  • Michael McKay: 'We're On The Verge Of Being Mugged By Our Governments'
  • Why Renewable Energy is so Attractive to Google
  • With a Big If, Science Panel Finds Deep Cuts Possible in Auto Emissions and Oil Use
  • Petroleum Use, Greenhouse Gas Emissions of Automobiles Could Drop 80 Percent by 2050; Efficiency, Alternative Fuels, and Strong Government Policies Will Be Needed
Daily Digest

Image by Images_Of_Money, Flickr Creative Commons

Daily Digest 3/8 - Thailand Passes Canada's Car Production, Europe's Recession Deepens

Friday, March 8, 2013, 11:45 AM
  • The Chinese are so desperate about the new property taxes they are divorcing in droves to avoid them
  • CP Rail may cut as many as 6,000 jobs: Harrison
  • Silvio Berlusconi convicted, sentenced to year in prison over illegal wiretaps
  • Thailand passes Canada in car production
  • Madrid's Renaissance of Occupied Spaces
  • Europe's Recession Deepens
  • "The Entire West Is In The Yo-Yo Years"
  • Poverty rate is highest in 15 years, says professor
  • The Deluge
  • Beemster's Dancing Cows Greet Spring Greens With Unrestrained Joy
  • How to green the desert and reverse climate change
  • Antarctica: Engine of ocean life
Daily Digest

Image by j.o.h.n. walker, Flickr Creative Commons

Daily Digest 3/6 - Wall St Selling Junk Bonds At Record Pace, College Could Cost $300k In 10 Years

Wednesday, March 6, 2013, 11:47 AM
  • The Greek Catastrophe: Three Generations of Greek Workers
  • Public authorities rack up nearly $250 billion in debt
  • European Shares at Multi-Year Highs on Stimulus Hopes
  • Analysis - Older French face slow squeeze in pension reform
  • U.S. Tells G-7 to Avoid Currency Intervention Except Rare Cases
  • China's Ghost Towns: Deserted Cities Raise Fears of Debt Crisis
  • Food banks are thriving, much to the government's embarrassment
  • Egypt’s fuel shortages demonstrate perfect storm of economic pressures
  • Revealed: The shocking true scale of food poverty 
  • Report: Record 50,000 homeless now in NYC
  • Images of Japan's barren tsunami coast 2 years on
  • College could cost over $300k in 10 years
  • Wall Street selling junk bonds at record pace
  • Why America's middle class is losing ground
  • Gross Says Yen to Weaken to 100 Per Dollar on QE Concern
Podcast

Bill Ryerson: The Challenges Presented by Global Population Growth

And why they're so hard for us to address
Saturday, December 22, 2012, 3:55 PM

At the heart of the resource depletion story that we track here at PeakProsperity.com is the number of people on earth competing for those resources.

The global population is more than 7 billion now and headed to 9 billion by 2050. If world population continues its exponential growth, when we will hit planetary carrying capacity limits with our key resources (or are we already exceeding them?) What are the just, humane, and rights-respecting options that are on the table for balancing the world’s population with the ability of the earth to sustain it?

Population management is an inflammatory issue. It's nearly impossible to discuss without triggering heated emotions, and rare is the leader who's willing to raise it. And by going unaddressed globally, the risk of problems created by overpopluation grow unchecked. War, poverty, starvation, disease, inequality...the list goes on.

Which is why we feel we need to have the courage to address this very important topic directly. And to have an adult-sized conversation about these risks and what can done about them. » Read more