Mish Shedlock

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Off The Cuff: Why The Market Has To Crash

Too much bad debt
Monday, September 3, 2018, 2:25 PM

In this week's Off The Cuff podcast, Chris and Mish Shedlock discuss:

  • Tax-Cut Sugar-High
    • Corporate earning shoot the moon, but wages are little changed
  • Emerging Markets Deja-Vu
    • Crisis always follows borrowing too much debt from foreign creditors
  • Our Captive Political System
    • The democratic dream has long been suffocated by those who control DC
  • A Gold Suprise?
    • Historical precendent strong suggests gold will rebound sharply soon

As the markets hang at record highs (yet again), Chris and Mish revisit the data -- are these levels justified by the data?

A fresh look makes it very hard to defend them. And while there are lots of reasons to support that conclusion, the core one is the same as it was prior to the 2008 crash: Too Much Bad Debt.

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The Shining/Warer Bros

Off The Cuff: Remember Volatility? It's Baaack....

And a tremendous amount of losses may soon follow
Friday, February 2, 2018, 10:16 AM

In this week's Off The Cuff podcast, Chris and Mish Shedlock discuss:

  • Remember Volatility? It's Baack...
    • And a tremendous amount of losses may follow soon
  • Rising Interest Rates
    • The long party of cheap credit is ending fast
  • The Middle Class Is Becoming The Working Poor
    • Fewer and fewer are able to save for the future
  • Unpacking The State Of The Union
    • One key question: "Where's all that money going to come from?"

Suddenly, volatility is rearing it's snarling head everywhere. The US dollar has plunged. Interest rates are marching higher than they have in many years. Cryptocurrency prices have been more than cut in half from their early January highs. Now, even stocks are beginning to wobble...

For years now, one of the most crowded and "easy" trades for making profit has been to short volatility. Trillions are still in play on that bet. With volatility now rising, that bet increasingly risks suddenly becoming a bad one -- which would unleash a tremendous volume of losses across the financial markets.

As Mish warns...

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Off The Cuff: Tax Americanus

There's a lot to hate within the new tax bill
Tuesday, December 26, 2017, 8:42 PM

In this week's Off The Cuff podcast, Chris and Mish Shedlock discuss:

  • The New Tax Bill
    • There's a lot to hate about it, despite the "cuts"
  • Watch The TED Spread Carefully
    • The big trouble will arrive in the bond market
  • A Hike Too Far
    • Rising rates threaten to break the back of this bull market
  • Bitcoin: Where To From Here?
    • When the insiders start dumping (as they are), it's time to pay close attention

There's a lot to be outraged about in the newly-passed tax legislation. Here's just a tidbit, from Mish:

There are a couple of the things that are in there that are particularly galling, like special breaks for people who own private jets on getting them maintained. There's a tax break specifically for jet owners, okay? I believe it's safe to say that you and I and anyone listening doesn't have a private jet.

Now, Senator Bob Corker from Tennessee, who was against this bill for months on end because it increased the deficit, finally voted for it. And the day that he voted for it, there was a special provision in there just for him – well, not just for him – for anyone who happens to own investment real estate. Orrin Hatch wrote this in personally, and admitted it. A special break for real estate investors. And guess what? His wife has a half million-dollar real estate property. So special breaks for them. 

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Off The Cuff: Every Rat For Himself

Our leaders are plundering the system as they ruin it
Thursday, October 19, 2017, 8:04 PM

In this week's Off The Cuff podcast, Chris and Mish Shedlock discuss:

  • The Pension Crisis Starts Bubbling Over
    • Illinois is serving as a preview of what's to come
  • The Price-To-Fraud Ratio
    • Stocks are being priced on phony earnings
  • Netflix: A Case Study Of A Classic Scam
    • Losing $billions each year in cash flow, but reporting a profit
  • A Coming Price Deflation?
    • It's going to happen, Mish predicts

In a discussion sure to get your blood boiling in anger, Chris and Mish look at the actions of those in power as the repercussions of their poor decision-making begin to become apparent. Do they take ownership of the problem? Do they prioritize developing solutions? No: they duck out the back door, while voting themselves fat severance plans. 

Here's Mish's accounting of what's going on right now in his home state of Illinois...

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Off The Cuff: The Unsinkable(?) Market

No data is too bad enough to stop its rise
Friday, July 21, 2017, 2:06 AM

In this week's Off The Cuff podcast, Chris and Mish Shedlock discuss:

  • The Unsinkable Market
    • No data is bad enough to stop its rise
  • The Disappearance Of Volatility
    • Gone, but for how long?
  • Failing Pension Plans
    • A truly massive crisis in the making
  • Cash, Gold & Bitcoin
    • The only places for capital to find safety?

During these doldrum days of summer, where no matter the news, today's "unsinkable" markets continue to march ever upwards, Mish shares his thoughts on what will finally cause asset prices to tank.

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Off The Cuff: Too Many Balls In The Air

Why the central banks will ultimately crash the markets
Friday, May 12, 2017, 3:26 PM

In this week's Off The Cuff podcast, Chris and Mish Shedlock discuss:

  • Too Many Balls In The Air
    • The central banks are losing control of them all
  • Growing Risk In Europe
    • Macron's victory masks huge looming problems
  • Without Continued Central Bank Balance Sheet Expansion...
    • ...The markets will crash
  • Things Don't Matter Until They Do
    • Why the crash will happen unbelievably quickly

This week Chris and Mish enumerate how completely dependent today's financial market prices are on the continued expansion of central bank balance sheets around the world.

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Off The Cuff: The Driverless Future

It's going to have a HUGE impact, especially on jobs
Thursday, October 27, 2016, 9:36 PM

In this week's Off The Cuff podcast, Chris and Mish Shedlock discuss:

  • Meaningless Metrics
    • Offical data is so 'fuzzy' as to be useless now
  • AT&T/Time Warner merger & Snapchat IPO
    • Signs of excess seen at a bubble top
  • The Driverless Future
    • It's going to have a HUGE impact, especially on jobs
  • The Demographic Time Bomb
    • Pensions will start blowing up left & right

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Off The Cuff: The World's Banking System Is On The Precipice

It's as vulnerable (or more) as during 2008
Thursday, August 11, 2016, 7:02 PM

In this week's Off The Cuff podcast, Chris and Mish Shedlock discuss:

  • The World's Baking System Is On The Precipice
    • It's as vulnerable (or more) as during 2008
  • Stocks & Bonds Hit All-Time Highs
    • We're in a chimera market right now
  • Central Control Is Tightening
    • Dissent is being squashed wherever possible
  • Real Wages Are Declining
    • Good luck squashing that dissent when folks can't feed their families...

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Off The Cuff: The Prosperity Pie Is Shrinking

The root macro challenge of our time
Friday, July 1, 2016, 11:16 AM

In this week's Off The Cuff podcast, Chris and Mish Shedlock discuss:

  • The Battle Behind Brexit
    • An underlying story of the masses vs the elites
  • The Prosperity Pie Is Shrinking
    • The macro issue of our time
  • Election Rigging
    • A near-certainty at this point
  • Gold & Silver Streak
    • Finally! Some upward momentum

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Off The Cuff: It's Getting So Bad They Have To Lie

Ever more dirty tricks are needed to keep the masses fooled
Thursday, June 9, 2016, 8:23 PM

In this week's Off The Cuff podcast, Chris and Mish Shedlock discuss:

  • The B.S. Spewed By The BLS
    • The birth-death model outputs have become a huge joke
  • It's Getting So Bad They Have To Lie
    • We're getting more fake stats to try to hide reality
  • Dirty Politics
    • From the US primaries to the Brexit, dirty tricks are the norm
  • Crony Corporatism
    • How the government is enabling companies to gouge consumers

"When it becomes serious, you have to lie"

~ Jean Claude Juncker, former head of the EU

Statistics that can not possibly be believed by anyone looking at the actual evidence. Election results that in no way match the exit polls. Yet, somehow, the outcomes tend to overwhelmingly favor those on the side of maintaining the status quo.

We are at the point in this global journey where it's getting harder and harder for those in power to hide the weakness, injustice and rot within the system. So, like Juncker, they're resorting to more and more lies, more deception, more backroom swindling to maintain the facade that everything is working fine.

In this week's Off The Cuff, Chris and Mish use recent economic statistics and the elections in the US and the EU to show just how desperate the lies are becoming. Which is an important sign that we're getting close to the point when..

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