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Off The Cuff: The QE Experiment Has Failed

After 10 years of robbing Peter to pay Paul, we're all broke
Friday, April 27, 2018, 1:01 PM

In this week's Off The Cuff podcast, Chris and Mish Shedlock discuss:

  • Backfiring Sanctions
    • Turns out, supply chains are complicated
  • Job Losses Now Exceeding Job Gains
    • First time (quarterly) since 2010
  • Trouble For Housing
    • Affordability is going from bad to horrible
  • The QE Experiment Has Failed
    • After 10 years of evidence, we have a verdict

The cracks in the central planner's long-term strategy are beginning to show. 

Volatility is returning to the world's financial markets, which stubbornly now resist to hit new highs. Job growth is peaking. Nearly everyone younger than the baby boomers is getting priced out of the housing market. And the unity of the recent globalization era is fracturing nearly everywhere around the world.

When it comes down to it, all the massive efforts to "save the system" following the onset of the 2008 Great Financial Crisis have served to do is enrich a small number of elites and corporations at the expense of everyone else. 

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Off The Cuff: Is Inflation Now In The Rear-View Mirror?

Mike Shedlock warns of deflation ahead
Friday, March 9, 2018, 3:11 AM

In this week's Off The Cuff podcast, Chris and Mish Shedlock discuss:

  • Are We On Our Way To Tipping Into Deflation?
    • We will be if we have another credit crisis
  • We're At Record Levels Of Indebtedness
    • So deflation would be painfully brutal
  • Trumps Trade Wars Will Hasten A Deflationary Bust
    • Economic growth will be even harder to achieve
  • It's Time To Own Real Things
    • Commodities are looking better and better

Recorded last week, Mike Shedlock explains why he sees an inevitable -- and painful -- deflationary rout ahead for world financial markets...

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Off The Cuff: The Approaching Minsky Moment

The world is unprepared for the reset heading our way
Wednesday, June 21, 2017, 9:00 PM

In this week's Off The Cuff podcast, Chris and Mish Shedlock discuss:

  • A Study In Failure Of The State
    • Chris shares his on-the-ground observations from So. America
  • It Can Happen Here
    • Mish shares his on-the-ground observations from Illinois
  • Virtually All The Macroeconomic Data Is Miserable
    • Yet the Fed & the markets are acting like everything's great
  • The Approaching Minsky Moment
    • It's a matter of if, not when

This week's Off The Cuff discussion is an interesting one. Both Chris and Mish have front-row seats to two failing governments -- Chris in Argentina, and Mish in Illinois. It feels to them like they are getting a preview of the economic pain soon to come to the rest of the world.

Both are *very* concerned that citizens and investors across the globe are being duped by the (lack of) signals and messages today's ""markets"" are providing. Looking at the steady drumbeat of bad & worsening macroeconomic data, as well as the immense gap between fundamentals and asset prices, Chris and Mish are as confident as they have ever been that a massive painful reset is nigh. But too many of our leaders, and too much of the public, remain complacent/ignorant (willfully or not) regarding this risk. 

Their conclusion? The world is woefully unprepared for the Minsky moment headed its way.

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Off The Cuff: Dubious Data

There are no solid fundamentals supporting this rally
Friday, March 10, 2017, 12:01 PM

In this week's Off The Cuff podcast, Chris and Mish Shedlock discuss:

  • GDP Sluggish
    • At 1.3% and falling
  • Suspicious 'Rosy' Jobs Reports
    • When no net employment growth for months
  • Earnings The Same As 2011
    • Yet stocks 30% higher
  • Fed Hike Likely?
    • Probably. But they don't want to pop the bubble

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Off The Cuff: Repercussions Of Rising Rates

Rising interest rates are the big story right now
Thursday, December 1, 2016, 9:54 PM

In this week's Off The Cuff podcast, Chris and Mish Shedlock discuss:

  • A Bottom For Miners?
    • Mish thinks this may be a good purchasing window
  • Hit To Housing
    • Rising interest rates are kryptonite to home prices
  • Vanishing Jobs
    • Trump can't replace the jobs lost to automation
  • The Year Of The Iconoclast
    • Anti-establishment platforms gather steam around the world

After years and years of declining/0% interest rates, the trend may be reversing. Market interest rates have risen faster over the past month than in decades.

Chris and Mish see this as having implications that will ripple through all asset classes. As Mish warns:

I’m watching interest rates just rise and rise. And the thing here is everyone’s betting on this massive inflationary scenario under Trump. I’m not sure I get it. Now, long term, we can all look at this and say, “Yeah, he’s going to take less money in in taxes, he’s going to waste more on infrastructure, he wants to increase military spending.” Of those, the only one I agree with is lowering taxes but the analysis is negative, negative, negative from Congressional CBO and all the people who figure this stuff out.

So we’ve got this surge in interest rates and money pouring into the dollar. The dollar’s going higher. I look at all of this and I think, “Hmm, a surge in interest rates. Ah, it’s likely to affect an ugly market.” The rising US dollar impacts exports in a negative fashion. The stock market is incredibly overvalued. And we know what generally happens when interest rates rise: I’m looking at a potential deflationary bust. Especially when we factor in Trump’s trade policies that might very well cause a global trade war.

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Off The Cuff: Should The Central Banks Just Buy Everything?

That's what they're on their way to doing
Thursday, September 1, 2016, 7:19 PM

In this week's Off The Cuff podcast, Chris and Mish Shedlock discuss:

  • Should The Central Banks Just Buy Everything?
    • Is that the plan? What would happen?
  • Turning Japanese
    • Japan is leading the way by monetizing all its assets
  • Putting The Fed On Trial
    • Chris fantasizes about holding up the mirror of truth to power
  • The Next Interest Rate Move
    • Up or down?

Click to listen to a sample of this Off the Cuff Podcast or Enroll today to access the full audio and other premium content today. » Read more

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Etsy

Off The Cuff: Jackass Leadership

We'd be so much better off with so much less
Monday, May 23, 2016, 4:52 PM

In this week's Off The Cuff podcast, Chris and Mish Shedlock discuss:

  • Implications Of The Recent Fed Minutes
    • Per usual, good for stocks/bad for gold
  • The Dying Middle Class
    • Sucked dry by central planning policy
  • The Dirty Trick Of Politics
    • Both parties are worth throwing out
  • Jackass Leadership
    • In the Fed, on the Hill, in the White House...
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Off The Cuff: The Fed's Frenzy Of Emergency Meetings

Are things more dire than we're being told?
Friday, April 22, 2016, 1:34 AM

In this week's Off The Cuff podcast, Chris and Mish Shedlock discuss:

  • Part Time Nation
    • Our job market has been hollowed out
  • Emergency Fed Meetings
    • What exactly is going on behind the scenes?
  • Lower Returns & Lower Prices
    • Pretty much what we have to look forward to from these markets
  • Chinese Capital Flight
    • Driving so much of today's overvaluations
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Off the Cuff: Broken Markets

Response to the FMOC minutes reveals depth of instability
Thursday, June 20, 2013, 12:26 AM

In this week's Off the Cuff podcast, Chris and Mish discuss:

  • Wedding Bells For Mish
    • Mike tied the knot last week
  • FOMC Freak-Out
    • Markets react nonsensically to the predictable
  • Where to From Here?
    • Down - and fast - seems most likely
  • The Case For Precious Metals
    • Current low prices just don't make sense
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Off the Cuff: It Feels Like 2007 All Over Again

There's a bubble in "belief"
Thursday, December 20, 2012, 1:43 AM

In this week's Off the Cuff with Mish & Chris podcast, Mish and Chris discuss:

  • Fiscal cliff "smoke"
    • Not enough substance to include "mirrors"
  • The markets' grim outlook
    • Most difficult time for investors in generations
  • Crazy ideas
    • Could the Fed get away with taking all debts onto it books?
  • Media spin
    • There's a bubble in "belief"

48 hours to go and no Fiscal Cliff deal in sight. The recently touted "Plan B"... » Read more