Markets

Podcast

Joe Saluzzi: The Markets Are Still Way Too Vulnerable To A Sudden Liquidity Disappearance

HFTs remain a major issue
Monday, September 24, 2018, 2:56 PM

In the past, Joe Saluzzi has been a vocal critic of the dominant and parasitic role HFT algorithims play in today's financial markets, siphoning off profits at the expense of the "dumb money" (i.e. retail investors) while undermining the integrity and stability of exchanges. Front running, spoofing, flash crashes -- HFTs are the culprits behind them.

Saluzzi actually has some positive developments to note: namely that the obscene profits the HFTs used to make (i.e., steal) are moderating as the arms race in the industry has escalated and the players are increasingly competing with each other. Also, the SEC appears to be moving much faster now towards putting some material constraints in place.

But the unfair advantages that HFTs enjoy, as well as their threat to market stability, are still very real. If we don't continue to fight to bring them under control, we risk a vicious downdraft during the next big market crisis should the algos instantly exit in a panic.

Click the play button below to listen to Chris' interview with Joe Saluzzi (48m:16s). » Read more

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The Outlook For The Markets Is Deteriorating Fast

Countries all over the globe are suddenly failing
Friday, August 31, 2018, 7:57 PM

Executive Summary

  • The evidence that the dominant social narrative is breaking down
  • The Emerging Market spark may ignite a broad market conflagration
  • Financial market complacency is completely unprepared for such a risk
  • And escalating risk of conflict in the Middle East threatens to make the situation a whole lot worse

If you have not yet read The Whole System Is Rigged, available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.

An Emerging Nightmare

About the kindest thing I can say about the reckless $trillions the central banking cartel flooding the world with is that they gave us more time to get our preparations in order. I certainly hope you used that time wisely.

So what happens when every financial market around the globe has been dangerously inflated by massive money printing?

Those enormous flows that were virtuous on the way out will be vicious on the way back in. 

And don't forget: as a combined group, the big central banks are still expanding their balance sheets today.

Yet despite that, the weaker players on the board are beginning to flounder severely:

Every single country on that list that is the proud holder of US denominated debt is now facing serious difficulties.  Worse, the situation compounds itself as all of the debt holders have to sell their local currency in increasing amounts to buy the dollars with which they will pay off these debts. 

The more they sell, the weaker their local currency gets.  The weaker it gets the more they have to sell. It's this dynamic that then bleeds over into their local stock markets.  Companies being crushed by external dollar-denominated debts see their interest costs spike higher and higher.  Very rapidly this crushes their income stream, so their stocks fall in price.

The contagion is spreading, quite rapidly too.  It’s well beyond a single story that we can confine to the particulars of Turkey or Argentina.  It now involves India, for heaven’s sake!

Next up is the big kahuna – the debt crisis that results when the individuals and companies toss in the trowel and declare bankruptcy or simply stop paying off their loans or debts.  This is when the debt crisis starts.

The ramifications of all this are... » Read more

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Off The Cuff: The Fed May Be Less Worried Of A Stock Plunge Than We Think

As long as credit flows, it's OK with lower stock prices
Tuesday, March 27, 2018, 2:53 PM

In this week's Off The Cuff podcast, Chris and Axel Merk discuss:

  • Dissecting Last Week's FOMC Meeting
    • Powell definitely seems different from his predecessors
  • Why The Fed May Not Worry About Stock Prices
    • All it really cares about are functioning credit markets
  • How Sick Is Europe?
    • Very, but it can linger a long time
  • The Prospects For Gold
    • Well-poised to outperform other assets this year

In the wake of last week's FMOC meeting, the first one for new Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, our site's central banking expert Axel returns to the podcast to share his assessment of the banking world's newest sheriff. Axel believes, as a lawyer (unlike his academic predecessors), Powell is fairly unconcerned with economic theory or asset prices. What he cares most about is regulation and the continued functioning of markets. So as long as credit -- the lifeblood of the global economy -- is flowing, he may not care much where prices end up...

Click to listen to a sample of this Off the Cuff Podcast or Enroll today to access the full audio and other premium content today.
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Off The Cuff: How Much Farther Is The Market Likely To Fall From Here?

Spoiler alert: A lot
Friday, February 9, 2018, 12:07 PM

In this week's Off The Cuff podcast, Chris and Charles Hugh Smith discuss:

  • What The Heck Happened This Week?
    • The volatility trade blew up
  • How Much Farther Might The Market Fall?
    • It was so overbought, that there's a looong way to fall
  • Where Can Money Find Safety Right Now?
    • Only in a very few places, as nearly everything is still at an overvaluation extreme
  • What Should We Be Watching For Next?
    • Look for the key longstanding correlations begin to break down. That's when the big crash will happen.

This week's Off The Cuff is a must-listen podcast.

In it, Chris and Charles deconstruct the price action of the markets this week -- both agree that it (finally!) marks an end to the 7+ year "extend and pretend" unbroken rally in both stocks and bonds.

More importantly, they warn of the paucity of "safe" places for investment capital right now; as almost every asset class remains dangerously overvalued, and bank risk is on the rise. But they do identify the few areas where money is likely to flee -- it will be very important to be positioned in these *before* everyone else tries to enter.

As for how much farther the markets may drop -- whether or not there's another short-term rescue happens, both see prices ultimately falling much, much lower. As Charles observes:

I'm looking at a weekly chart of the Dow Industrial Average and I'm seeing we've hardly started a decline.

I mean, the MACD has just barely touched the first part of a negative cross. The Stochastic is only down from 100 to 86 -- oversold' on Stochastic would be 20. The RSI (the Relative Strength Index)has fallen 60 -- and again, oversold would be something like 30.

So the people who are thinking they're going to buy the dip and it's going to run up another couple thousand points... maybe. But the technical chart says this is ugly, and it's going to take a long time—at least a matter of weeks, if not a couple of months—to actually bottom out.

It's looking to be a really treacherous year for investors, because the trend has been broken. 

Click to listen to a sample of this Off the Cuff Podcast or Enroll today to access the full audio and other premium content today.
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Lightspring/Shuttestock

Brien Lundin: If They Don't Want You To Own It, You Probably Should

The wisdom (and challenges) of owning safe haven assets
Monday, August 14, 2017, 8:39 PM

One of the most perplexing mysteries to us is that right as the Federal Reserve embarked on QE3 -- which was a huge, enormous, $85 billion a month experiment -- commodities began a multiyear decline within two weeks of that announcement. Concurrently, the world’s central banks plunged the world into steeply negative real interest rates, a condition that has almost always resulted in booming commodity prices -- but not this time. Today, the ratio between commodity prices and equities is at one of, if not the most, extreme points in history.

To explain that gap, we talk this week with Brien Lundin, publisher of Gold Newsletter and producer of the New Orleans Investment Conference (where Chris and Adam are speaking on Oct 25-28): » Read more

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A-papantoniou/Dreamstime

Our Brave New '''Markets'''

How HFT algorithms risk a massive sudden sell-off
Friday, July 28, 2017, 9:18 PM

One thing is clear: These aren’t your daddy’s markets anymore.

Why?  Because about 10 years ago the Rise of the Machines (aka high frequency trading algorithms) completely altered the terrain of what we call the ‘capital markets.’  » Read more

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Steve St. Angelo: Prepare For Asset Price Declines Of 50-75%

When the debt bubble pops, it's taking everything with it
Monday, July 3, 2017, 4:00 PM

Any sense of prosperity in today's economy is based on a falsehood, claims Steve St. Angelo, proprietor of the SRSrocco Report website.

Like we here at PeakProsperity.com, Steve is a student of energy. He shares our worldview that net energy per capita has been in steady decline, and a result, future growth will be limited. Also like us, he notes that the "growth" seen over the past several decades hasn't been due to surplus net energy (which makes being able to do more possible). Instead, it has been fueled by debt  -- which essentially steals prosperity from the future and consumes it today.

Any third-grader with a crayon can quickly tell you that kind of scam can't last forever. And it can't. Once the can can't be kicked any further and the next economic and/or financial crisis is upon us, Steve sees today's over-inflated asset prices quickly dropping by a gut-wrenching 50-75%. » Read more

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victoriana.com

Sheelah Kolhatkar: Hedge Funds Are The Robber Barons Of Our Time

And have enjoyed unfair advantage for far too long
Sunday, April 2, 2017, 10:14 AM

Sheelah Kolhatkar, former hedge fund analyst and staff writer at the New Yorker, thinks hedge funds have enjoyed enormous unfair advantages for far too long.

In her recent book Black Edge: Inside Information, Dirty Money, and the Quest to Bring Down the Most Wanted Man on Wall Street, she details out how many hedge funds use financial engineering and accounting tricks -- legal and illegal -- to fill their coffers at investor expense. And then they use those ill-gotten gains to influence politics. » Read more

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Off The Cuff: Eggshell Markets

Why the market can't sustain any losses
Wednesday, March 29, 2017, 7:20 PM

In this week's Off The Cuff podcast, Chris and John Rubino discuss:

  • Vexing Volatility
    • How the VIX is being used to drive the markets
  • We Can't Handle Losses Anymore
    • Why the market is now incredibly vulnerable to downturns
  • Our Captive System
    • Until it breaks, the system is run to serve the banks, not us
  • The Death Of The Living Wage
    • The hollowing out of the middle class continues

Lots of sobering material packed into this week's Off The Cuff discussion between Chris and John. While there are signs of growing instability to be found nearly everywhere, both are very concerned about the extreme fragility of today's financial ""markets"". At the slightest sign of weakness, tremendous interventions now happen on a daily basis to keep prices from falling, even by a single percent.

The reason why is that the system is too vulnerable for ANY degree of loss to be sustained without fear of collapsing it.

Click to listen to a sample of this Off the Cuff Podcast or Enroll today to access the full audio and other premium content today. » Read more

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Off The Cuff: Weariness Everywhere In The Markets

The support underlying today's sky-high prices is faltering
Thursday, March 23, 2017, 4:43 PM

In this week's Off The Cuff podcast, Chris and Charles Hugh Smith discuss:

  • Weariness Everywhere In The Markets
    • The post-election price support is evaporating
  • Confused Leaders
    • Chris recaps his latest meetings at the U.N.
  • Boomer Guilt
    • Divisions between the older haves & younger have-nots are growing
  • Banks & Government
    • A partnership of evil

Charles returns to Off The Cuff this week to note the recent lack of vigor in today's financial markets. Does it portend a turning point?

Click to listen to a sample of this Off the Cuff Podcast or Enroll today to access the full audio and other premium content today. » Read more