John Maynard Keynes

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How Long Can The Great Global Reflation Continue?

And what will happen when it ends?
Friday, May 19, 2017, 8:01 PM

Given the extraordinary failure of both Keynesian stimulus and private-sector credit growth to create a self-sustaining cycle of expansion whose benefits flow to the entire workforce rather than to the top few percent, what can we expect going forward? Can we just keep doubling and tripling the economy’s debt load every few years? What if household incomes continue declining? Are these trends sustainable?

In the near-term, is this Great Reflation running out of steam, or is it poised for yet another leg higher? Which is more likely? » Read more

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Get Ready... Change Is Upon Us

The 'economic peace' we've enjoyed for decades is over
Friday, November 11, 2016, 9:05 PM

At certain times, it’s really not that hard to predict "what" is going to happen next after disastrously short-sighted and self-interested policies are enacted. Predicting the "when", with precision, is much tricker. But obvious misguided economic policies are destined to have a limited period of apparent (but false) prosperity, after which they end with a nasty Bang!.

We have entered just such a time. This isn't a Trump vs Clinton thing; I'd make this claim regardless of who won this week's presidential election -- as our plight is much bigger than a single Administration. And my observation is that neither political party had much interest beyond some temporary election year lip-service to the economic plight of the middle class.

And by “middle class” I mean anybody not in the top 5% economic bracket. For those doing the math at home, that leaves the remaining 95% of us stuck in the meat grinder. » Read more

Insider

The Future of Living

The rise of 'vernacular artistry'
Tuesday, September 3, 2013, 11:35 AM

Executive Summary

  • Ready or not, the forces underlying the Long Emergency will force a return to the 'real' (vs the virtual)
  • What regions and town/city models will fare best in this future?
  • The age of the car is over: how will we transport goods and ourselves?
  • Which skills will be in greatest demand?
  • How to prepare ourselves emotionally for becoming less techno-dependent

If you have not yet read Part I: Returning to the 'Real'  available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.

A Return To the 'Real'

John Maynard Keynes famously remarked, “In the long run we are all dead.” Which leaves the short to intermediate run, which is a lot. Start with the proposition that we’ll be compelled to reconnect our lives to biophysical reality, that is, nature. The techno-industrial adventure was about the exhilaration of overcoming natural limits — and the grandiosity in thinking that we could de-link permanently and put something synthetic and supposedly just-as-good in nature’s place. In the process, we de-natured ourselves and unplugged from the satisfactions found in being part of something wondrous and whole and larger than ourselves. We don’t have to reinvent the sacred. It has been there all along. We just ignored and disregarded it for about a century, and now we have to rebuild the social and logistical infrastructure for it.  That job will be easier than keeping the interstate highway system in repair.

Expect to be living a far less mediated existence, being more directly in touch with the patterns afforded by nature, the sun and moon, the seasons, the temperature, the sensations, the tastes and textures, the pains and pleasures. For the generation used to sensing absolutely everything through the tiny portal of a five-inch smart phone screen, this may come as a startling psychological shock, greater than the psychedelic drugs of the hippie days were to the Boomers. By the way, nobody should expect that the national electric grid will survive indefinitely, or that every locality will be able to generate its own electricity without the long commercial chains of mining, advanced metallurgy, and the manufacture of modular machinery.

Where to Live?

One of the first questions for people to answer for themselves, especially in a period of demographic turmoil, is what place do I feel okay about being in and how do I set my roots in it? ... » Read more