Jeffrey Brown

Podcast

Jeffrey J. Brown: Hurricanes & US Oil Production

Estimating the impact of Harvey (and Irma, and...)
Tuesday, September 5, 2017, 11:13 AM

Hurricane Harvey took offline over 50% of Texas' refining capacity and shut down large percentage of the wells in the major Eagle Ford shale play.

This week, Hurricane Irma threatens to deliver a similar massive punch to the oil patch in the Gulf.

To discuss the ramifications from these storms on the oil markets, geoscientist and oil explorer Jeffrey Brown returns to the podcast. He calculates that Harvey alone will have long-lasting effects such as lingering supply shortages, but his greater focus is attuned to the growing validation of his Export Land Model, which calculates the rate at which oil-producing nations cease to become net exporters as their domestic consumption increases. Since it's formulation in 2005, more and more countries have switched from being net-exporters to net-importers, and the data in aggregates is strongly suggestive of a flat-lining in world oil production -- the consequences of which are immense. » Read more

Podcast

Peak Prosperity

Jeffrey Brown: To Understand The Oil Story, You Need To Understand Exports

Peak Oil is very much alive
Sunday, September 13, 2015, 5:31 PM

Despite the attention-grabbing economic volatility that is grabbing headlines, it's important to keep our eye on the energy story firmly in focus. This is especially true as the headlines we regularly read about Peak Oil being dead " are "manifestly false" according to this week's podcast guest, petroleum geologist Jeffrey Brown. 

As concerning as the fact that global oil production has plateaued over the past decade, despite trillions invested in trying to goose it higher, are Brown's forecasting model for oil exports. His Export Land Model shows how rising internal consumption can swing (and has swung) countries from major exporters to permanent importers within a dizzyingly short period of time. » Read more