Italy

Insider

Shutterstock

The Outlook For The Markets Is Deteriorating Fast

Countries all over the globe are suddenly failing
Friday, August 31, 2018, 7:57 PM

Executive Summary

  • The evidence that the dominant social narrative is breaking down
  • The Emerging Market spark may ignite a broad market conflagration
  • Financial market complacency is completely unprepared for such a risk
  • And escalating risk of conflict in the Middle East threatens to make the situation a whole lot worse

If you have not yet read The Whole System Is Rigged, available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.

An Emerging Nightmare

About the kindest thing I can say about the reckless $trillions the central banking cartel flooding the world with is that they gave us more time to get our preparations in order. I certainly hope you used that time wisely.

So what happens when every financial market around the globe has been dangerously inflated by massive money printing?

Those enormous flows that were virtuous on the way out will be vicious on the way back in. 

And don't forget: as a combined group, the big central banks are still expanding their balance sheets today.

Yet despite that, the weaker players on the board are beginning to flounder severely:

Every single country on that list that is the proud holder of US denominated debt is now facing serious difficulties.  Worse, the situation compounds itself as all of the debt holders have to sell their local currency in increasing amounts to buy the dollars with which they will pay off these debts. 

The more they sell, the weaker their local currency gets.  The weaker it gets the more they have to sell. It's this dynamic that then bleeds over into their local stock markets.  Companies being crushed by external dollar-denominated debts see their interest costs spike higher and higher.  Very rapidly this crushes their income stream, so their stocks fall in price.

The contagion is spreading, quite rapidly too.  It’s well beyond a single story that we can confine to the particulars of Turkey or Argentina.  It now involves India, for heaven’s sake!

Next up is the big kahuna – the debt crisis that results when the individuals and companies toss in the trowel and declare bankruptcy or simply stop paying off their loans or debts.  This is when the debt crisis starts.

The ramifications of all this are... » Read more

Insider

Bloomberg, ILLUSTRATION: 731

The Emerging Market Contagion Threat

How Turkey & the other EM countries can crash the world
Friday, August 17, 2018, 7:11 PM

Executive Summary

  • The dangers of contagion from Turkey
  • Which other countries pose an even bigger threat?
  • How I'm accelerating my personal preparations
  • Why the next crisis will happen swiftly when it arrives 

If you have not yet read We Are All Lab Rats In The Largest-Ever Monetary Experiment In Human History, available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.

It's Time To Talk Turkey

“Talking turkey” is an idiom which means to talk serious business or to talk frankly.  So let’s talk Turkey. 

Turkey, the country, is currently in a major currency crisis and heading towards a sovereign debt crisis.  

Its self-inflicted wounds include piling on massive new debts and making a big bet that the US dollar would continue to weaken, which it did not.

The huge predicament facing Turkey is that many of its debts are denominated in dollars and euros. So as the Turkish lira fell, those debts became more and more expensive for their holders to service. Just this year alone, the Turkish lira has fallen by nearly 40%(!) against the dollar.

Imagine that you're a Turk with a mortgage denominated in US dollars. Suppose it was for $200,000 and your payment in local currency was 5,625 lira ($1,500) for the month at the beginning of the year.  Today, your payment would be 9,090 lira (still $1,500) to account for the dollar translation.

Ouch!

That’s happening to businesses and consumers alike across Turkey.  To help ease the pain, the authorities are busy allowing inflation to run rampant which gives people more lira to work with. But that’s a two-edged sword that also causes the value of the lira to continue to fall against external currencies.  So it buys a bit of time, perhaps, at the risk of a full blown currency collapse that leads to a major sovereign debt crisis.

The effects are already rippling through the European banking system. We see that clearly here in... » Read more

Insider

Off The Cuff: The Last Rescue?

Soon, markets will have to fend for themselves
Saturday, June 9, 2018, 1:09 AM

In this week's Off The Cuff podcast, Chris and Mish Shedlock discuss:

  • The Visible Hand Of The Market Manipulators
    • Volatility is (once again) being intentionally throttled
  • Why Italy Matters
    • It has the size and will to destabilize the EU
  • Weakness In The EU Goes Beyond Italy
    • The banks, especially Deutche Bank, are in trouble
  • Can Anyone 'Win' A Trade War?
    • It's debatable. What's not is that everyone gets bloodied.

Chris and Mish address the latest "rescue" of the markets since Italy briefly threatened to destabilize Europe. So, the intervention of the past 8 years is still in play, but for how much longer? With the central banks starting in earnest to shrink their balance sheets (or at least taper their purchasing), these market "saves" will be less possible going forward. Mish, in particular, expects gold to reflect that heightened risk in the coming future.

Click to listen to a sample of this Off the Cuff Podcast or Enroll today to access the full audio as well as all of PeakProsperity.com's other premium content.
Insider

Wikimedia

Off The Cuff: Why Governments Prefer A Currency Crisis To A Debt Crisis

Nothing's as destructive as cascasding debt defaults
Friday, June 1, 2018, 6:09 PM

In this week's Off The Cuff podcast, Chris and Wolf Richter discuss:

  • Panic in Europe
    • Italy is threatening to destabilize the EU
  • Central Banks Have Wrecked The Market Mechanisms
    • And tapering will reveal the damage done
  • What's Better? A Debt Crisis Or A Currency Crisis?
    • It seems governments vastly prefer the latter
  • Is Deutche Bank Threatening To Start A Banking Crisis?
    • Maybe. And it would set the world aflame.

With the action happening in Europe this week, from the Italian debt panic, to the new Spain PM, to Deustche Bank's worsening prospects, Wolf Richter comes on the program to make sense of the developments in real-time.

Notably, Wolf explains why the world's central banks will work with their home governments to destroy their currencies rather than start defaulting on their debts. This is path he expects the future to take:

A debt crisis is devastating, and it's devastating selectively. A currency crisis is kind of more democratic. It hits everybody. But a debt crisis, it hits the people that are recipients of government aid the most. And that's the problem in Greece and other countries, they had to go on austerity. Little bitty pensions were cut and things like that happened to save a few pennies here and there. And when it's a currency crisis, everybody gets hit and it spreads across. And I think they understand that Japan is uniquely equipped to deal with a currency crisis because it has this large trade surplus and because it sits on a pile of foreign exchange reserves. So that won't really blow up the Japanese economy where as a debt crisis would completely implode the economy, and it would wreak havoc among the people from pensioners and aid recipients and the healthcare system and everything would just collapse. And they decided that's not going to happen.

So that's how I think we need to look at what's happening in Japan. They made a decision to prevent a debt crisis. and if they get a currency crisis, fine, they'll manage that. Italy doesn't have that option. Italy doesn't have its own currency, and it can't do that, so it can get a debt crisis. And that's what happened to Greece, and that's what happened to other countries. When they get a debt crisis it's really nasty. I hope Italy can avoid this thing, but debt crises are just the worst, absolutely the worst. But if a government needs to do anything, it's avoid a debt crisis.

Click to listen to a sample of this Off the Cuff Podcast or Enroll today to access the full audio as well as all of PeakProsperity.com's other premium content.
Insider

Punyaruk Baingern/Shutterstock

Italy Votes No(!)

Et tu, Brute?
Sunday, December 4, 2016, 10:52 PM

The Italian vote delivered the most unsurprising surprise today – another rejection of the elites by the people.

Oh the humanity!

Time for the elites to get out of their echo chambers and find out what life is like for the people laboring under their poorly thought through and inhumane policies. 

Remember, we humans like it better when things are fair and just.  Heck, it goes further than that; primates like it better when things are fair and just. » Read more

Podcast

Alasdair Macleod: Europe is a Hot Mess

Its banks are the weak point in the global financial system
Sunday, July 28, 2013, 10:42 AM

It's almost August, the month everyone in Europe takes off on holiday to forget their troubles. This year may be different, though, as not only can many not afford a vacation, but Europe's troubles loom so large that forgetting them won't be easy... » Read more

Blog

Europe's Precarious Banks Will Determine the Future

Ticking time bombs
Tuesday, June 25, 2013, 5:09 PM

Crying Wolf?

It is easy to get the impression that the naysayers are wrong about Europe. After all of the predictions of Armageddon, ten-year government bond yields for Spain and Italy fell to the 4% level, France (which is retreating into old-fashioned socialism) was able to borrow at about 2%, and one of the best-performing bond investments has been until recently – wait for it – Greek government bonds! Admittedly, bond yields have risen from those lows, but so have they everywhere. It is clear, when one stands back from all the usual euro-rhetoric, that, as a threat to the global financial system, it is a case of "panic over." » Read more

Featured Discussion

A Report From Europe

A Report From Europe

How bad are things there, really? A reader gives a boots-on-the-ground account after a recent trip.

Daily Digest

Image by EpSos.de, Flickr Creative Commons

Daily Digest 5/23 - Big Wind’s Trail Of Wings, Living Buildings For Tomorrow's Cities

Thursday, May 23, 2013, 10:22 AM
  • Gold ETFs Are Liquidating By The Ton
  • Schizophrenic investors expect slump: bet on boom
  • Clients Denied Gold At Major Banks As Shortage Intensifies
  • Thanks To QE Bernanke Has Injected Foreign Banks With Over $1 Trillion In Cash For First Time Ever
  • Gramm and McMillin: The Debt Problem Hasn't Vanished
  • Want to Save the Environment? Build More Cities
  • Republic of Ireland calls for international tax action
  • US Treasury secretary says he has begun tapping federal retiree pension fund to avoid default
  • Millions falling into poverty in recession-racked Italy: report
  • Seven Ways Today's Economy Is Like The NHL Playoffs
  • PBS Killed Wisconsin Uprising Documentary "Citizen Koch" To Appease Koch Brothers
  • Court upholds B.C. mining company’s use of temporary foreign workers from China
  • Big Wind’s trail of wings
  • Living buildings for tomorrow’s cities
  • Food swapping: The movement taking off in the UK
Daily Digest

Image by Leonid Mamchenkov, Flickr Creative Commons

Daily Digest 4/17 - Cyprus Braces For Russian Exodus, Half NYC Workforce On Food Stamps

Wednesday, April 17, 2013, 2:37 PM
  • Ohio’s $500 Billion Oil Dream Fades as Drillers Misjudge: Energy
  • Cyprus braces for Russian cash exodus
  • Italy May Cut $6.6 Billion in Defense Spending This Year
  • Detroit's encroaching blight as seen through Google and Bing maps
  • Smithsonian to close galleries due to budget cuts
  • Three-fold increase in demand for Gold: Jewellers
  • Bailouts push German debt to new record
  • Italy's temporary layoff scheme runs out of cash, sparks protests
  • Almost half of NYC workforce on food stamps
  • Let them eat vegetables: Egypt's wheat farmers hit hard by diesel price hikes
  • South Korea Proposes $15.3 Billion Stimulus Budget
  • EU warns of budget constraints as Cyprus seeks more aid