housing market

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Trouble Ahead For The Housing Market

We're starting to see rising supply & flat/declining prices
Monday, July 16, 2018, 3:27 PM

Our good friend John Rubino over at DollarCollapse.com just released an analysis titled US Housing Bubble Enters Stage 2: Suddenly Motivated Sellers.

He reminds us that housing bubbles follow a predictable progression:

  • Stage 1: Mania -- Prices rise at an accelerating rate as factors like excess central bank liquidity/loose credit/hot foreign money drive a virtuous bidding cycle well above sustainably afforable levels.
  • Stage 2: Peak -- Increasingly jittery owners attempt to sell out before the party ends. Supply jumps as prices stagnate.
  • Stage 3: Bust -- As inventory builds, sellers start having to lower prices. This begins a vicious cycle: buyers go on strike not wanting to catch a falling knife, causing sellers to drop prices further.

Rubino cites recent statistics that may indicate the US national housing market is finally entering Stage 2 after a rip-roaring decade of recovery since the bursting of the 2007 housing bubble: » Read more

Insider

Off The Cuff: Yes, The Central Banks Really Are Starting To Tighten

Expect EVERYTHING you know about the markets to change
Tuesday, July 10, 2018, 10:40 AM

In this week's Off The Cuff podcast, Chris and Wolf Richter discuss:

  • Tesla As A Symbol Of Silicon Valley
    • Way more hype than substance right now
  • Are Central Banks Really Starting To Tighten?
    • It's looking like indeed so
  • How The Rising Dollar Is Killing Emerging Markets
    • It's just math. Really cruel math.
  • Popping Of The Global Housing Bubble?
    • Australia may be leading the way down

The Fed has reduced its balance sheet so far this year to the tune of $100 billion, and is hoping to be reducing at the rate of $50 billion per month by October. The ECB has announced it will stop making purchases by the end of the year. And, surpringly, even the profligate Bank of Japan is showing signs of reducing its balance sheet.

Click to listen to a sample of this Off the Cuff Podcast or Enroll today to access the full audio as well as all of PeakProsperity.com's other premium content.
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Betrayal!

The pervasive & defining crime of our age
Friday, October 6, 2017, 8:35 PM

Let me apologize in advance for what may be an upsetting piece of writing for some of you. If you're in a state of shock or exhaustion from recent events, perhaps you should skip this one.

I don't offer this analysis in order to further distress anyone -- but until you understand what is happening and how that influences your psychological state, you'll remain the emotional equivalent of a rag doll shaken to-and-fro by events.

Such understanding may not bring you to a place of calm acceptance. But it will set you free. » Read more

Insider

Positioning Yourself For The Crash

Steps to take before crisis arrives
Friday, March 24, 2017, 12:05 PM

Executive Summary

  • Why economic growth is not going to ride to the rescue
  • The alarming warning signs the auto, fine art, retail & housing industries are flashing now
  • The actions you should be taking now to protect yourself from (and position for) the coming crash

If you have not yet read Part 1: Why This Market Needs To Crash  available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.

Sometimes I wonder if I'm ever going to run out of new things to say about the state of the world, especially economics.  The more obvious our predicaments become to me, the less appetite there seems to be ‘out there’ to discuss them.

What more can be said about a system that is so obviously corrupt and destined to fail, and piles up more and more evidence that this is the case, and yet refuses to engage in the most minimal of introspection? 

Well, lots as it turns out. 

You see, we're finally getting to beginning of the end.  Our long national -- and global -- experiment with using flawed economic models is now running smack dab into reality.

The edifice of central planning omnipotence is crumbling and when it finally breaks down in earnest, the financial markets will implode, the central banks will be overrun and discredited, and investors will discover that overly-long parties come with massive hangovers.

There will be hell to pay.

For reasons we have discussed previously, and extensively,  GDP growth has not been a feature of the world stage for over a decade, and is unlikely to return both because of debt levels that are far too high to support rapid growth and because any return of rapid growth will run smack into higher oil prices.

So…how’s that story working out?  Not so hot.  It’s been sub-par on a global scale for more than a decade. And the same is true for the US.

And here’s where we are today... » Read more

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adirondackalmanack.com

A Murderous Complacency

Dark omens are circling everywhere in today's markets
Friday, February 3, 2017, 5:38 PM

Running PeakProsperity.com requires me to read and process a lot of data on a daily basis. As it's hard to digest it all in real-time, I keep a running list of charts, tables and articles that catch my attention, to return to when I have the time to give them my full attention.

Lately, that list has been getting quite long. And it's largely full of indicators that concern me, signals that the long era of "extend and pretend" in today's markets may finally be at its terminus.

Like crows circling overhead, everyday brings with it new worrisome statistics that portend an ill change ahead. Indeed, these signs are increasing so quickly now that it's hard not to feel like Tippi Hedren in Hitchcock's classic The Birds. » Read more

Insider

Off The Cuff: A Lot Of Bubbles Are Beginning To Burst

China, home sales, auto loans...
Friday, December 30, 2016, 5:18 PM

In this week's Off The Cuff podcast, Chris and John Rubino discuss:

  • The Traumatized National Psyche
    • Will 2017 see a healing?
  • Bursting Bubbles Multiplying
    • China, home sales, auto loans...
  • QE For The People
    • It's coming, and we'll all regret it
  • The Pension Time Bomb
    • Insolvency is a "when", not an "if"

John Rubino joins Chris this week to discuss the biggest trends most likely to define the course of 2017. He sees populist spending programs, deflating asset bubbles, and the slowdown of China at top of the list. » Read more

Podcast

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Wolf Richter: The Economy Is Cracking Under Too Much Debt

Housing, restaurants & retail are suffering
Sunday, October 16, 2016, 1:25 PM

Wolf Richter joins the podcast this week to discuss the deterioration of the global macro situation, and how he is seeing growing signs of recession breaking out across the economy. » Read more

Blog

Charles Krupa

Sorry Losers!

How the Fed has screwed the many to benefit the few
Friday, September 2, 2016, 4:48 PM

By its actions, the Federal Reserve has selected a precious few winners and many, many losers.  Sadly, you are highly likely to be one of the losers.

Sorry!

I'm one, too, if that helps soften the blow.

But we have a lot of company. » Read more

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Dreamstime

The Marginal Buyer Holds The Pin That Pops Every Asset Bubble

So it's important to watch him very closely
Friday, August 19, 2016, 2:01 AM

Those of you who took an Economics class in college may remember the saying that prices are set "at the margin". That's a fancy way to say that prices are set by the person (or people) willing to pay the most.

This person willing to pay top dollar is called the "marginal buyer". Most of us don't really think about him, but he (or she) is very, very important.

Why? Because the marginal buyer not only determines price levels, but also their stability and degree of volatility. The behavior of the marginal buyer, as well as the degree of competition for his/her "top dog" spot, sets the prices of nearly every asset class held by today's investors. » Read more

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How Much Longer Can Our Unaffordable Housing Prices Last?

Spoiler alert: not much
Friday, October 9, 2015, 5:12 PM

Markets discover price via supply and demand: Big demand + limited supply = rising prices. Abundant supply + sagging demand = declining prices.

Eventually, prices rise to a level that is unaffordable to the majority of potential buyers, with demand coming only from the wealthy. That’s the story of housing in New York City, the San Francisco Bay Area and other desirable locales that are currently magnets for global capital. » Read more