growth

Podcast

Archeoguidaroma

Joseph Tainter: The Collapse Of Complex Societies

What history predicts about our future prospects
Sunday, June 25, 2017, 11:20 PM

By popular demand, we welcome Joseph Tainter, USU professor and author of The Collapse Of Complex Societies (free book download here).

Dr. Tainter sees many of the same unsustainable risks the PeakProsperity.com audience focuses on -- an overleveraged economy, declining net energy per capita, and depleting key resources. 

He argues that the sustainability or collapse of a society follows from the success or failure of its problem-solving institutions. His work shows that societies collapse when their investments in social complexity and their energy subsidies reach a point of diminishing marginal returns. That is what we are going to be talking about today, especially in regards to where our culture is today, the risks it faces, and whether or not we might already be past the tipping point towards collapse but just don’t know it yet. » Read more

Insider

curraheeshutter/Shuttterstock

Get Ready For The Coming Massive Correction

One we may never fully recover from
Friday, June 9, 2017, 7:46 PM

Executive Summary

  • The economic data is getting darker fast
  • The over-indebtedness of the economy is the worst it's ever been
  • Predicting the timing of the next major market correction
  • As the risks mount, what should the concerned investor do?

If you have not yet read Part 1: Why The Markets Are Overdue For A Gigantic Bust available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.

The Data Says…Another Downturn Is Upon Us

Our view is that a massive market correction is coming, one that may well rip the financial markets apart, and cause very long-term and long lasting damage, possibly to the point of taking generations to repair in any meaningful sense.

In fact things may never actually recover to the current heights because recovery requires energy and there simply isn’t the net energy per capita that existed in the past.

For now, we see plenty of signs of fundamental economic weakness, and this is not surprising at this stage of the so-called economic expansion.  The truth is this expansion has been phony to a large degree, and quite probably should have broken down many times in the past, most recently in early 2016.

But the central banks prevented that and we can all feel thankful at the extra time that has provided us to become more resilient under reasonably calm circumstances.

And yet, the one thing that central banks have never been able to do is... » Read more

Podcast

Peak Prosperity

Nafeez Ahmed: Our Systems Are Failing

This is an evolutionary moment for our species
Sunday, February 19, 2017, 4:19 PM

Dr. Nafeez Ahmed is an award winning 15 year investigative journalist, noted international security scholar, best-selling author and film-maker.  He authored The Guardian’s Earth Insight blog and has twice won the prestigious Project Censored Award for outstanding investigative journalism.

In his new book Failing States, Collapsing Systems, Nafeez points out, as we often do here at PeakProsperity.com, that everything in our modern society is connected to energy, and that our pursuit of ever more, ever higher growth is finally colliding with planetary limits. Scarcity and strife will be the dominant trends from here, unless we, as a species, start looking for different ways of living better-suited for a finite world. » Read more

Blog

Zacarias Pereira da Mata/Shutterstock

The Great Market Tide Has Now Shifted To Risk-Off Assets

A global sea-change in risk appetite & sentiment
Friday, July 8, 2016, 3:03 PM

In the conventional investment perspective, risk-on assets (i.e. investments with higher risks and higher potential returns) such as stocks are on a see-saw with risk-off assets (investments with lower returns and lower risk, such as Treasury bonds). When risk appetites are high, institutional managers and speculators move money into stocks and high-yield junk bonds, and move money out of safe-haven assets such as gold and U.S. Treasuries.

But recently, markets are no longer following this convention. Safe haven assets such as precious metals and Treasuries are soaring at the same time that stock markets bounced strongly off the post-Brexit lows.

Risk-on assets (stocks) rising at the same time as safe-haven assets is akin to dogs marrying cats and living happily ever after. 

What the heck is going on? » Read more

Insider

wikimedia

Why The Fed’s Efforts Will End Badly

We've been down this road before. Quite recently, in fact
Wednesday, June 1, 2016, 2:26 PM

It’s no secret that I've taken the contrarian position for seven long (and frequently frustrating) years.

Look, we’ve been down this road before, and the sheer stupidity of our current situation is that we’ve been down it recently enough to know better.  It worked out poorly for us in 2000, again in 2008, and will soon enough again. That's why I'm currently short the US stock market and plan to increase that short position as time goes on.

I'm quite familiar with, and even sympathetic to, the idea that the central banks will not... » Read more

Insider

Sarah2

Close To The Tipping Point

Can you feel it?
Monday, April 25, 2016, 1:19 PM

There’s something in the air: people are edgy and worried. But about what, exactly?

Despite allegedly rosy economic statistics and endless cheerleading about how the markets have bottomed and how growth is poised to come roaring back, our heads and our guts instead tell us something is very wrong.

People everywhere can feel it. They're expressing varying levels of dissatisfaction: ranging from mildly concerned, to very worried, to downright pissed off.

We see it broadly in the hostility and opinion canyons of the election cycle. Perhaps we’ve experienced it personally, through the ending of a relationship that no longer works as we need it to.

These are the signs of tipping points. The human animal senses the coming tsunami and reacts from a very deep, visceral place where emotions hold sway and reason stumbles.  We are social creatures; and not all of the cues to which we react are visible or quantifiable. » Read more

Insider

Skypixel | Dreamstime.com

The War On Cash Intensifies

Negative interest rates. A ban on cash. Pick your poison.
Monday, September 21, 2015, 9:45 PM

The central planners are setting the stage for the next round of officially sanctioned theft and this time they mean to assure that you have no way(s) of escaping.

They’re coming for your cash. This is a risk that Charles Hughes Smith explored for us back in June in a very well-received analysis.

Once a fringe idea, this concept is now being openly discussed and debated at the highest levels publicly. Which means it is being hotly discussed behind closed doors, and likely has been for a long time. » Read more

Blog

James Steidl/Shutterstock

In Denial: We Pursue Endless Growth At Our Peril

A requiem for planet Earth
Friday, May 29, 2015, 10:09 AM

As we've been discussing of late here at PeakProsperity.com, humans desperately need a new story to live by. The old one is increasingly dysfunctional and rather obviously headed for either a quite dismal or possibly disastrous future. One of the chief impediments to recognizing the dysfunction of the old story and adopting a new one is the most powerful of all human emotional states: Denial. » Read more

Insider

Kotenko Oleksandr/Shutterstock

Off the Cuff: Economic Growth Is Dead

But no one is willing to admit it
Thursday, April 30, 2015, 5:15 PM

In this week's Off the Cuff podcast, Chris and John Rubino discuss:

  • Economic Growth Is Dead
    • Though world governments fear admitting that
  • The War On Cash
    • Rumors abound cash may eventually be outlawed
  • Crisis Inevitability
    • A crash is coming, whether we're too exhausted for it or not
  • Civil Rights Are Casualty #1 Of Our Failing System
    • Baltimore is just the latest flashpoint in many more to come
Blog

Bloomberg

Has The Fed Already Lost?

Growth is dying & the Fed has few options left
Friday, April 17, 2015, 3:36 PM

Increasingly we live in a world of Now. Instantaneous access to digital real time data and news has simply become a given in our lives of the moment.

You may be surprised to know that the Federal Reserve has taken notice. » Read more