Gail Tverberg

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Gail Tverberg: The Coming Energy Depression

The math is straightforward, but cruel
Sunday, January 7, 2018, 4:52 PM

Energy analyst and professional actuary Gail Tverberg returns to the podcast this week to revisit the global energy outlook. And fair warning, Gail warns it's quite grim.

To her, it's a simple math problem. We have too many people placing too much demand on the world's depleting energy resources. The cost of energy is rising, which we are compensating for in the short term by using financial gimmicks to make "affordable" -- when all we're really doing is creating future promises that cannot possibly be repaid.

The increasing cost of energy is manifesting in higher prices (for everything, not just fuels) and lower real wages, a divergence she sees only worsening from here. This path leads to another Great Depression-style crisis from which she does not see a clear path out of. » Read more

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Gail Tverberg: Why There's No Economically Sustainable Price For Oil Anymore

Producers need higher prices that the public can't afford
Sunday, October 23, 2016, 1:33 PM

Actuary Gail Tverberg returns to provide an update on where we are in the global energy story. Her outlook is not rosy: she doesn't not see a path for society to transition to an affordable, plentiful substitute to petroleum as a transportation fuel. The physics as well as the funding do not pencil out, at least with today's known technologies. » Read more

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Gail Tverberg: Something Has Got To Break

Growing debt faster than your energy supply has hard limits
Sunday, January 3, 2016, 3:01 PM

Actuary Gail Tverberg explains the tight correlation between the rates of GDP growth and growth in energy supply. For decades, energy has been becoming more costly to obtain, and instead of accepting lower GDP growth, we have been using debt to fund further energy exploration and extraction.

That strategy has diminishing returns, Tverberg warns. And we are close to the moment of reckoning. » Read more

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Gail Tverberg: This Is The Beginning Of The End For Oil Production

Why the shale collapse is ushering in a permanent turndown
Saturday, January 17, 2015, 1:28 PM

With the recent collapse in the price of oil, Gail Tverberg, returns to discuss the likely impact on the US shale oil industry, as well as the global market for oil. 

While as an actuary, Gail is one to avoid hyperbole and the let the numbers speak, her analysis of the outlook for future oil production is nothing short of dire. » Read more

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Gail Tverberg: The Shale Oil Boom is More "Mirage" than "Miracle"

Expect less than a 10-year boon
Saturday, December 7, 2013, 10:11 PM

In this week's podcast, Chris asks Gail Tverberg to assess the merits of the shale oil "revolution". Does it usher in a new Golden Age of American oil independence?

With her actuarial eyeshade firmly in place, Gail quickly begins discounting the underlying economics behind the shale model: » Read more

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Gail Tverberg

Gail Tverberg

Gail Tverberg is an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to inadequate supply.