FHA

Insider

The Forces That Will Reverse Housing's Recent Gains

Get ready for the "poverty effect"
Monday, February 25, 2013, 5:56 PM

Executive Summary

  • Intervention in the housing market by central planners is experiencing diminishing returns
  • The four major trend reversals most likely to depress housing prices in the coming future
  • The power deflationary force of reversion to (or perhaps below?) the mean
  • Why demographics do not support rising prices

If you have not yet read Part I: The Unsafe Foundation of Our Housing 'Recovery', available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.

In Part I, we sketched out the larger context of the housing market: the dramatic rise of mortgage debt, the stagnation of income for 90% of households and the unprecedented scope of Central Planning intervention in the housing and mortgage markets.

In Part II, examine what will likely cause this nascent rise in housing prices to reverse, and to resume the decline Central Planning halted in 2009.

Intervention Has Only One Way to Go: Diminishing Returns

As noted in Part I, every Central Planning support of the mortgage and housing markets has already been pushed to the maximum, so there is nowhere left to go. Interest rates are already negative, over 90% of the mortgage market is backed by Federal agencies, the Fed has already pledged to buy trillions of dollars in mortgages, etc.

Four years of this massive intervention has stripped the mortgage and housing markets of the ability to price risk, capital, and assets. This has created a culture of supreme complacency, as participants have come to believe interest rates will stay near-zero for the foreseeable future and Central Planning intervention is permanent.

But nothing is permanent in life. And the current extremes of intervention and complacency have set the stage for some important reversals: » Read more

Blog

The Unsafe Foundation of Our Housing 'Recovery'

Overdependence on subsidies, debt, and unfounded optimism
Monday, February 25, 2013, 5:55 PM

What could go wrong with the housing 'recovery' in 2013?

To answer this question, we need to understand that housing is the key component in household wealth. And, that Central Planning policies are aimed at creating a resurgent “wealth effect,” as follows: When people perceive their wealth as rising, they tend to borrow and spend more freely. This is a major goal of U.S. Central Planning.

Another key goal of Central Planning is to strengthen the balance sheets of banks and households. And the broadest way to accomplish this is to boost the value of housing. This then adds collateral to banks holding mortgages and increases the equity of homeowners.

Some analysts have noted that housing construction and renovation has declined to a modest percentage of the gross domestic product (GDP). This perspective understates the importance of the family house as the largest asset for most households and housing’s critical role as collateral in the banking system. » Read more

Blog

Real Estate: Is the Bottom In, or Is This a Head-Fake?

The housing recovery is no sure bet
Thursday, December 6, 2012, 11:32 AM

Everyone interested in real estate is asking the same question: is the bottom in, or is this just another “green shoots” recovery that will soon wilt?

Let’s start by reviewing the fundamental forces currently affecting real estate valuations. » Read more