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In A World Of Artificial Liquidity – Cash Is King

And you'd better have some stashed out of the system
Friday, July 3, 2015, 12:19 PM

It's more crucial now than ever for people to consider extracting a portion of cash from their bank accounts. » Read more

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Credit Market Warning

Long-awaited signs of danger are materializing
Friday, June 19, 2015, 12:50 PM

There are large signs of stress now present in the credit markets. You might not know it from today's multi-generationally low interest rates, but other key measures such as liquidity and volatility are flashing worrying signs. » Read more

Blog

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4 Factors Signaling Volatility Will Return With A Vengeance

Buckle up. It's going to get bumpy.
Wednesday, May 20, 2015, 9:43 AM

No one could have predicted the sheer scope of global monetary policy bolstering the private banking and trading system. Yet, here we were - ensconced in the seventh year of capital markets being buoyed by coordinated government and central bank strategies. It’s Keynesianism for Wall Street.

The unprecedented nature of this international effort has provided an illusion of stability, albeit reliant on artificial stimulus to the private sector in the form of cheap money, tempered currency rates (except the dollar - so far) and multi-trillion dollar bond buying programs. It is the most expensive, blatant aid for major financial players ever conceived and executed. But the facade is fading. Even those sustaining this madness, like the IMF, are issuing warnings about increasing volatility. » Read more

Blog

Oleksii Sergieiev, Dreamstime

For Heaven's Sake: Hedge!

If you're not positioned defensively by now, you're nuts
Thursday, April 30, 2015, 10:58 PM

Last fall, I wrote an article titled Defying Gravity that warned of the absurd price levels that stocks and bonds had risen to. Less than a month later, the stock market abruptly dropped by 7%. Those who didn't seek safety in advance were left licking their wounds, panicked not knowing if the painful down-draft was over.

So here we are roughly six months later, and the same warning bells are ringing -- just louder this time. » Read more

Podcast

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Steen Jakobsen: Get Ready For The Biggest Margin Call In History

A recommendation to move to cash
Sunday, April 19, 2015, 2:02 PM

Economist Steen Jakobsen, Chief Investment Officer of Saxo Bank, believes 2015 will be another "lost year" for the economy. And he predicts the Federal Reserve will indeed start to raise rates later this year, surprising the market and taking the wind of out asset prices.

He recommends building cash and waiting to see how the coming storm -- which he calls the "greatest margin call in history" -- plays out. » Read more

Blog

Bloomberg

Has The Fed Already Lost?

Growth is dying & the Fed has few options left
Friday, April 17, 2015, 3:36 PM

Increasingly we live in a world of Now. Instantaneous access to digital real time data and news has simply become a given in our lives of the moment.

You may be surprised to know that the Federal Reserve has taken notice. » Read more

Insider

Dreamstime

The Future Of Interest Rates

The Fed faces an increasingly bad set of options
Friday, April 17, 2015, 3:36 PM

Executive Summary

  • Why the Fed may no be able to raise rates from here
  • Will the Fed go to negative interest rates instead?
  • Why the next recession will limit the Fed's options greatly
  • Why it may well be too late for the Fed at this point to act

If you have not yet read Part 1: Has The Fed Already Lost? available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.

What If The Fed Isn't Actually Able To Raise Rates From Here?

Let’s start with a look at the history of the Federal Funds rate (the shortest maturity interest rate the Fed directly controls).  Alongside the historical rhythm of the Funds rate are official US recession periods in the shaded blue bars.   

Chart Source:  St. Louis Federal Reserve

Of course there is one striking and completely consistent historical commonality in the behavior of the Funds rate over time.  The Fed has lowered the Federal Funds rate in every recession since 1954 at least.  There are no exceptions.  You can see the punchline coming, can’t you?  Just how does one lower interest rates from zero to stimulate a potential slowdown in the economy?

Of course in the banking system... » Read more

Insider

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The Fed Is Destroying the World One Saver At A Time

Bernanke's new blog offers bloviating proof of that
Tuesday, April 7, 2015, 12:25 AM

I must confess to a deep-seated anger at just how insultingly stupid the world has become. As a sufferer of crisis fatigue I can be caught exclaiming You have got to be kidding me!!? several times per day, or perhaps shouting How dumb do they think we are?

Three choice outbursts came last week as I read Bernanke’s new blog and came across statements like this one:

 

 

Podcast

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Steve Keen: The Deliberate Blindness Of Our Central Planners

Choosing to ignore the largest risks
Sunday, March 29, 2015, 12:20 PM

The models we use for decision making determine the outcomes we experience. So, if our models are faulty or flawed, we make bad decisions and suffer bad outcomes.

Professor, author and deflationist Steve Keen joins us this week to discuss the broken models our central planners are using to chart the future of the world economy. » Read more

Podcast

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Grant Williams: Why The Smart Money Is So Nervous Now

And selling out to "dumber" hands
Saturday, February 28, 2015, 12:50 PM

More and more, those who have made long, successful careers in money management are realizing that the system has morphed into a strange beast they no longer recognize, nor trust.

Fear of epic, perhaps historic, dislocations in price when the current market reverses is causing more and more of the "smart money" to sell out now and seek safe harbor. » Read more