Federal Reserve

Blog

Shutterstock

Red Screen At Morning, Investor Take Warning

It's time for safety. And it's beginning to pay better, too
Friday, February 9, 2018, 9:12 PM

Growing up as I did in coastal New England, this old rhyme was drilled into us as children:

Red sky at night, sailor's delight;

Red sky at morning, sailor take warning.

I'm reminded of this rhyme because the markets are giving us a clear "red sky" warning right now. One that comes after (too) many years of uninterrupted fair winds and smooth sailing.

 
Blog

r.classen/Shutterstock

What The Crypto Crash & Stock Market Plunge Have In Common

Only one thing matters in bubble markets: sentiment
Monday, February 5, 2018, 5:57 PM

Did the stock market bubble just pop, just as the cryptocurrency one has? » Read more

Insider

Dreamstime

Is This It?

Has the next Great Financial Crisis just started?
Friday, February 2, 2018, 9:58 PM

Executive Summary

  • The significance of the recent spike in interest rates
  • Is the US dollar weakness a sign of other countries walking away from the US?
  • Are rising oil prices serving to pop the market bubble (as predicted)? Where are they headed from here?
  • Is this it? Is the top in? And if so, what should concerned investors do right now?

If you have not yet read Part 1: The Central Bank’s Reign of Error, available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.

Is this it then?  Is the top in?  The last few days have been extremely turbulent in the markets with the Dow Jones declining nearly 1,000 points in just this week.

Given the smoke swirling around the global rise in interest rates, I’m certain there’s something afoot.  The real question is whether or not the central banks are going to step in here to rescue everything again.

Alas, I don’t have access to that information but a betting person would say “yes.”  Everything they’ve done over the past 10 years has communicated quite clearly that the central banks are terrified of the Franken-Markets they’ve created.  Specifically, they are terrified of them going down and revealing the extent of the fraud.

However, we have to remain alert to the idea that the markets are indeed larger than the central banks, at least when they begin to move in earnest, and that the central banks have not been able to alter the laws of reality.  Resources matter.  Debt levels matter.  Leverage matters.  Well, eventually they do, and maybe that time has come?

If so, we all need to be ready for a very rocky ride ahead because... » Read more

Blog

Reuters

It's Looking A Lot Like 2008 Now...

Did today's market plunge mark the start of the next crash?
Friday, February 2, 2018, 9:57 PM

Economic and market conditions are eerily like they were in late 2007/early 2008.

Remember back then? Everything was going great. Home prices were soaring. Jobs were plentiful.

The great cultural marketing machine was busy proclaiming that a new era of permanent prosperity had dawned, thanks to the steady leadership of Alan Greenspan and later Ben Bernanke. And only a small cadre of cranks, like me, was singing a different tune; warning instead that a painful reckoning in our financial system was approaching fast.

It's fitting that I'm writing this on Groundhog Day, as to these veteran eyes, it sure has been looking a lot like late 2007/early 2008 lately... » Read more

Insider

pressano.com

How To Avoid The Pain Of The Coming Market Downturn

The 9 steps to increase your true wealth
Thursday, January 18, 2018, 9:35 PM

Executive Summary

  • Bubble markets short-circuit our assessment of risk
  • Bubble markets are hard to resist, and wear down your resolve
  • How to avoid the pain of the coming market downturn
  • The 9 steps to increase your true wealth

If you have not yet read Part 1: Believing The Impossible, available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.

I truly despise the many bubbles the central bankers have blown. I consider them ill-advised and distracting at a critical moment of history.

Where we should be attending to serious matters -- like accelerating ecosystem destruction, reigning in the practice of borrowing more than can ever be paid back, and transitioning rapidly off of fossil fuels -- people instead cheer the latest new shiny Dow Jones price record. Folks are just too distracted to have any interest in acknowledging the sobering predicaments we face.

It’s all rather cartoonish. The thinking, if I can call it that, goes like this; “But if any of your concerns were indeed true, certainly we’d not all be getting rich in the stock markets?”

Rising prices seem to be all the comfort these folks need to conclude that everything is A-OK.

“Your arguments are invalid because I'm richer today than I was yesterday.” As if a few more printed-up claims on wealth were the same thing as a better future.

So the prime reason that I hate the central banker-created bubbles is that they short-circuit the important conversations we should be having.

Rising equity prices coupled with the endless cheerleading they receive on the TV and in the press blunt people’s sense that we maybe should be doing things differently. And there is so much we need to be doing differently right now -- in the long run to secure a prosperous future, and in the immediate term, to protect against the inevitable destruction when these bubble markets burst.

Specifically, we need to... » Read more

Insider

Off The Cuff: The Brain-Dead Fed

Its power is exceeded only by its cluelessness
Thursday, January 18, 2018, 12:51 PM

In this week's Off The Cuff podcast, Chris and Axel Merk discuss:

  • Brexit: An Update
    • Axel's observations from London
  • The Reason Behind The Weakening US Dollar
    • The coming ECB tapering is being factored in
  • Tax Cross-Currents
    • Reforms will disrupt more than folks realize
  • The Brain-Dead Fed
    • Can't admit it does it what it does

In this wide-ranging discussion -- covering taxes to Brexit to gold to the markets -- Axel shares with Chris his conclusions on the inner workings of the Federal Reserve from his interactions with many of the folks involved in running it. Despite being perhaps the single most influential entity in the global economy, like any institution, it is run by fallible people who, in this case, can't recognize and/or admit that their actions are in full violation with their promised policy.

Click to listen to a sample of this Off the Cuff Podcast or Enroll today to access the full audio and other premium content today.
Blog

Photobank gallery/Shutterstock

Drowning In The Money River

Why the 99% of us are falling farther behind
Friday, January 12, 2018, 8:43 PM

If you suspect society is unfair, that there's a different set of rules the rich live by, you're right.

I've had ample chance to witness first-hand evidence of this in my time working on Wall Street and in Silicon Valley. Simply put: our highly financialized economy is gamed to enrich those who run it, at the expense of everybody else. » Read more

Insider

Off The Cuff: Is This The Blow-off Top?

And if so, how long can it continue?
Thursday, January 4, 2018, 8:42 PM

In this week's Off The Cuff podcast, Chris and John Rubino discuss:

  • How Long Can This Continue?
    • Debt has been rising faster than income everywhere for decades
  • The Rules Will Certainly Be Changed
    • Desperate elites will always act in their best interest
  • Are We Seeing The Blow-off Top?
    • Dear God, let's hope so
  • A Commodities Price Spike Will Pop This Bubble
    • If it doesn't collapse under its own overshoot, first

Chris and John kick off the new year by remarking how similar the conditions now feel to 1999 and 2007. The world financial markets have been running much too hot for far too long, and yet they've kicked into an even higher gear of late. Fortunes are being made in the cryptocurrencies -- a space most of the investors throwing their capital into have next to zero understanding of. The Dow is hitting new price records faster than it ever has in its history.

Obviously this can't end well, and it won't. And when the inevitable crash occurs, expect those who created this mess to take cruel-handed measures to sacrifice the rest of us in order to protect whatever amount of their privilege they can.

Click to listen to a sample of this Off the Cuff Podcast or Enroll today to access the full audio and other premium content today.
Podcast

marshfieldclinic.org

David Collum: The Vicious Cycle Approaches

We'll regress to (and through) the mean
Sunday, December 24, 2017, 2:03 PM

Whether or not you've had time yet to plow your way through David Collum's excellent 2017 Year in Review, our annual podcast with Dave always brings additional color to light -- and this year's is no exception. » Read more

Blog

Tortoon/Shutterstock

2017 Year In Review

Markets fiddle while Rome burns
Friday, December 22, 2017, 4:15 PM

Every year, friend-of-the-site David Collum writes a detailed "Year in Review" synopsis full of keen perspective and plenty of wit. This year's is no exception. As with past years, he has graciously selected PeakProsperity.com as the site where it will be published in full. It's quite longer than our usual posts, but worth the time to read in full. A downloadable pdf of the full article is available here, for those who prefer to do their power-reading offline. -- cheers, Adam

Introduction

“He is funnier than you are.”

~David Einhorn, Greenlight Capital, on Dave Barry’s Year in Review