Federal Reserve

Insider

Off The Cuff: Yes, The Central Banks Really Are Starting To Tighten

Expect EVERYTHING you know about the markets to change
Tuesday, July 10, 2018, 10:40 AM

In this week's Off The Cuff podcast, Chris and Wolf Richter discuss:

  • Tesla As A Symbol Of Silicon Valley
    • Way more hype than substance right now
  • Are Central Banks Really Starting To Tighten?
    • It's looking like indeed so
  • How The Rising Dollar Is Killing Emerging Markets
    • It's just math. Really cruel math.
  • Popping Of The Global Housing Bubble?
    • Australia may be leading the way down

The Fed has reduced its balance sheet so far this year to the tune of $100 billion, and is hoping to be reducing at the rate of $50 billion per month by October. The ECB has announced it will stop making purchases by the end of the year. And, surpringly, even the profligate Bank of Japan is showing signs of reducing its balance sheet.

Click to listen to a sample of this Off the Cuff Podcast or Enroll today to access the full audio as well as all of PeakProsperity.com's other premium content.
Podcast

elmercurio.com

Michael Pento: When The Yield Curve Inverts Soon, The Next Recession Will Start

Expected timing: this Fall
Wednesday, June 27, 2018, 3:34 PM

Some day, today's era of insane asset price bubbles will end. But how? Will it unwind in an orderly and polite way, as the world's central planners hope? Or will be disorderly, resulting in painful portfolio losses and mass layoffs?

Michael Pento, fund manager and author of The Coming Bond Bubble Collapse returns to the podcast this week to offer his prediction that events will most likely take the latter route. In fact, he sees the developing inversion of the yield curve as a dependable precursor to the US economy entering recession as soon as this Fall: » Read more

Blog

A Hard Rain's a-Gonna Fall

The prospects for the rest of the year are awful
Friday, June 15, 2018, 6:55 PM

As the Federal Reserve kicked off its second round of quantitative easing in aftermath of the Great Financial Crisis, hedge fund manager David Tepper predicted that nearly all assets would rise tremendously in response. 

History proved Tepper right: financial and other risk assets have shot the moon. Equities have long since rocketed past their pre-crisis highs, bonds continued rising as interest rates stayed at historic lows, and many real estate markets are now back in bubble territory. 

And everyone learned to love the 'Fed put' and stop worrying.

But as King Louis XV and Bob Dylan both warned us, what's coming next will change everything. » Read more

Blog

The End Of Stimulus? (And The Start Of The Crash?)

What the most important chart in the world is predicting
Friday, May 25, 2018, 7:29 PM

Back in January of 2016 we saw what appeared to be, and in my opinion should have been, the end of the Everything Bubble blown by the word's central banking cartel.

The carnage started in the emerging markets. Highly-leveraged positions and carry trades began to unwind. That's a fancy way of saying that all the big, sophisticated investors -- who were busy borrowing heavily in countries with cheap money (the US, Japan, and Europe) and using that debt to speculate in markets offering higher yields (junk debt, emerging markets, stocks, etc.) -- began to reverse their trades.

We are now seeing the same rapidly-deteriorating sequence in the markets today, here in late May 2018. And this time, it doesn't look like the central banks will be able to ride to the rescue as they have time and again over the past decade. » Read more

Insider

afflictor.com

Off The Cuff: The Fed Is Driving Blind

Insider insights from a recent gathering of Fed officials
Monday, May 21, 2018, 3:11 PM

In this week's Off The Cuff podcast, Chris and Axel Merk discuss:

  • The Fed Is Driving Blind
    • QE has rendered all signals useless
  • The Risk Of Recession Is 100%
    • The only question that matters is When?
  • Axel's Report From A Recent Gathering Of Fed Officials
    • From inside the Hoover Institution
  • Forecasting The Price Of Gold & Oil
    • Bullish reasons to hold both right now

Having recently returned from a private gathering of Federal Reserve officials, Axel shares his observations with us. In a nutshell, he sees the Fed as now following the market. His prediction is that they will keep tightening right up to the point where the market buckles under the higher rates, and at that point, it will be too late to prevent a major market correction, and likely, a plummet into economic recession.

Click to listen to a sample of this Off the Cuff Podcast or Enroll today to access the full audio as well as all of PeakProsperity.com's other premium content.
Podcast

Nomi Prins: Collusion!

How central bankers rigged the world
Tuesday, May 8, 2018, 4:19 PM

Nomi Prins, Wall Street veteran turned financial industry reformist returns to the podcast this week to explain the findings within her new book Collusion: How Central Bankers Rigged The World.

Nomi has put together a timeline of exactly when and how the central banks have plundered the wealth of the masses since 2008, either directly or indirectly through the loss of purchasing power of the currencies they control. » Read more

Podcast

Dreamstime

Doug Duncan: Even US Government Economists Predict Trouble Ahead

Fannie Mae forecasts an economic slowdown by 2019
Monday, April 16, 2018, 11:53 AM

Doug Duncan is not your average beltway economist.

The chief economist for Fannie Mae is surprisingly outspoken about the troublesome outlook for the US economy. He's worried about the rising cost of debt service as outstanding credit continues to mount at the same time interest rates are starting to ratchet higher, too. » Read more

Blog

Shutterstock

2018: The Year Everything Changed

Long-time trends are breaking down
Friday, April 13, 2018, 3:42 PM

Since the rescuing of the financial system in the wake of the Great Financial Crisis, the world has enjoyed a steady upward trajectory of "prosperity. After bottoming in March 2009, stock indices have more than quadrupled. Bonds and real estate have rose to record highs. Market volatility essentially disappeared. The unemployment rate has dropped to the lowest levels in memory. It's been nearly a decade now of smooth sailing and easy returns.

That's all now changing. » Read more

Podcast

Dreamstime

Wolf Richter: The Era Of The Fed "Put" Is Over

It now wants lower asset prices (just not too fast)
Monday, April 2, 2018, 3:39 PM

To all those investors expecting the Fed to step in to backstop the recent weakness seen in the stock market, Wolf Richter warns: The cavalry isn't coming.

After years of force-feeding too much liquidity into world markets, the central banking cartel is now aware of the Franken-markets it has created. And now with a new head at the US Federal Reserve, and soon at the ECB, central bankers have shifted their priority from supporting asset prices to now actively engineering lower prices. » Read more

Podcast

Who is Danny/Shutterstock

Daniel Nevins: Economics for Independent Thinkers

It's time we stop trusting the 'experts'
Wednesday, February 28, 2018, 6:03 PM

Economists are supposed to monitor and analyze the economy, warn us if risks are getting out of hand, and advise us on how to make things runs more effectively -- right?

Well, even though that's what most people expect from economists, it's not at all how they see their role, warns CFA and and behavioral economist Daniel Nevins.

In short, they are the wrong people to advise us, Nevins claims, as they have no clue how the imperfect world we live in actually works.