Fed

Podcast

elmercurio.com

Michael Pento: When The Yield Curve Inverts Soon, The Next Recession Will Start

Expected timing: this Fall
Wednesday, June 27, 2018, 3:34 PM

Some day, today's era of insane asset price bubbles will end. But how? Will it unwind in an orderly and polite way, as the world's central planners hope? Or will be disorderly, resulting in painful portfolio losses and mass layoffs?

Michael Pento, fund manager and author of The Coming Bond Bubble Collapse returns to the podcast this week to offer his prediction that events will most likely take the latter route. In fact, he sees the developing inversion of the yield curve as a dependable precursor to the US economy entering recession as soon as this Fall: » Read more

Insider

afflictor.com

Off The Cuff: The Fed Is Driving Blind

Insider insights from a recent gathering of Fed officials
Monday, May 21, 2018, 3:11 PM

In this week's Off The Cuff podcast, Chris and Axel Merk discuss:

  • The Fed Is Driving Blind
    • QE has rendered all signals useless
  • The Risk Of Recession Is 100%
    • The only question that matters is When?
  • Axel's Report From A Recent Gathering Of Fed Officials
    • From inside the Hoover Institution
  • Forecasting The Price Of Gold & Oil
    • Bullish reasons to hold both right now

Having recently returned from a private gathering of Federal Reserve officials, Axel shares his observations with us. In a nutshell, he sees the Fed as now following the market. His prediction is that they will keep tightening right up to the point where the market buckles under the higher rates, and at that point, it will be too late to prevent a major market correction, and likely, a plummet into economic recession.

Click to listen to a sample of this Off the Cuff Podcast or Enroll today to access the full audio as well as all of PeakProsperity.com's other premium content.
Podcast

Nomi Prins: Collusion!

How central bankers rigged the world
Tuesday, May 8, 2018, 4:19 PM

Nomi Prins, Wall Street veteran turned financial industry reformist returns to the podcast this week to explain the findings within her new book Collusion: How Central Bankers Rigged The World.

Nomi has put together a timeline of exactly when and how the central banks have plundered the wealth of the masses since 2008, either directly or indirectly through the loss of purchasing power of the currencies they control. » Read more

Podcast

Dreamstime

Doug Duncan: Even US Government Economists Predict Trouble Ahead

Fannie Mae forecasts an economic slowdown by 2019
Monday, April 16, 2018, 11:53 AM

Doug Duncan is not your average beltway economist.

The chief economist for Fannie Mae is surprisingly outspoken about the troublesome outlook for the US economy. He's worried about the rising cost of debt service as outstanding credit continues to mount at the same time interest rates are starting to ratchet higher, too. » Read more

Podcast

hdbuilder.eu

Simon Black: Priced To Fantasy

Stock prices today simply aren't justifiable
Tuesday, April 10, 2018, 11:53 AM

Chris and I have been on a ship this week, presenting at The Real Estate Investor Summit At Sea.

We were able to steal away for an hour to sit down with fellow presenter Simon Black (founder of SovereignMan.com) and this excellent discussion ensued. We didn't have any agenda prepared; it's just us three riffing and sharing our thoughts on the most likely implications of the biggest macro risks that have our attention right now. » Read more

Podcast

Dreamstime

Wolf Richter: The Era Of The Fed "Put" Is Over

It now wants lower asset prices (just not too fast)
Monday, April 2, 2018, 3:39 PM

To all those investors expecting the Fed to step in to backstop the recent weakness seen in the stock market, Wolf Richter warns: The cavalry isn't coming.

After years of force-feeding too much liquidity into world markets, the central banking cartel is now aware of the Franken-markets it has created. And now with a new head at the US Federal Reserve, and soon at the ECB, central bankers have shifted their priority from supporting asset prices to now actively engineering lower prices. » Read more

Insider

Shutterstock

Off The Cuff: The Fed May Be Less Worried Of A Stock Plunge Than We Think

As long as credit flows, it's OK with lower stock prices
Tuesday, March 27, 2018, 2:53 PM

In this week's Off The Cuff podcast, Chris and Axel Merk discuss:

  • Dissecting Last Week's FOMC Meeting
    • Powell definitely seems different from his predecessors
  • Why The Fed May Not Worry About Stock Prices
    • All it really cares about are functioning credit markets
  • How Sick Is Europe?
    • Very, but it can linger a long time
  • The Prospects For Gold
    • Well-poised to outperform other assets this year

In the wake of last week's FMOC meeting, the first one for new Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, our site's central banking expert Axel returns to the podcast to share his assessment of the banking world's newest sheriff. Axel believes, as a lawyer (unlike his academic predecessors), Powell is fairly unconcerned with economic theory or asset prices. What he cares most about is regulation and the continued functioning of markets. So as long as credit -- the lifeblood of the global economy -- is flowing, he may not care much where prices end up...

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Podcast

Who is Danny/Shutterstock

Daniel Nevins: Economics for Independent Thinkers

It's time we stop trusting the 'experts'
Wednesday, February 28, 2018, 6:03 PM

Economists are supposed to monitor and analyze the economy, warn us if risks are getting out of hand, and advise us on how to make things runs more effectively -- right?

Well, even though that's what most people expect from economists, it's not at all how they see their role, warns CFA and and behavioral economist Daniel Nevins.

In short, they are the wrong people to advise us, Nevins claims, as they have no clue how the imperfect world we live in actually works.

 
Insider

Off The Cuff: The Bond Market Will Have A Rude Awakening Soon

Higher interest rates will unleash a world of trouble
Thursday, February 22, 2018, 8:54 PM

In this week's Off The Cuff podcast, Chris and Wolf Richter discuss:

  • The Coming Rude Awakening For Bonds
    • Spiking yields are about to crash prices
  • Multi-TrillIon Dollar Deficits
    • The US is spending much more than it admits to
  • Kryptonite For The Housing Market
    • Higher interest rates & unfavorable tax code changes
  • Pension Woes
    • Most pension plans will soon be in a world of pain

Chris and Wolf marvel at the bond market's apparent indifference so far to rising rates. Rising rates, of course, mathematically mean bond prices should lower -- but that hasn't happened much yet. With the 10-year Treasury nearly at 3% now, that resistance can't last for long. Especially if the Fed proceeds with its declared program of quantitative tightening this year.

Wolf explains the ticking time bond in the bond market thusly...

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Insider

It's Even Worse Than You Think

A massive price correction is both inevitable & overdue
Friday, February 16, 2018, 8:58 PM

Executive Summary

  • Just how rampant is the fraud in today's markets?
  • How last week's volatility spike nearly crashed the system
  • Why a massive price correction is both necessary, inevitable & overdue
  • Why the future of our democracy itself hangs in the balance

If you have not yet read Part 1: The Worst Threat We Face Is Right Here At Home, available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.

As I recently wrote, what broke in early February was volatility itself.  The volatility trade is one where tremendous firepower is concentrated because of a massive concentration of computer trading strategies that are all keyed off of volatility.

One of them is the so-called “risk-parity” trade, where computers are balancing and rebalancing a blended portfolio of stocks and bonds based entirely off of what the volatility index is doing.

So if volatility is falling, these algorithms are buying stocks.  Said another way, if you wanted to rig the cash market to go higher, you could either buy a huge amount of stocks directly, or you could buy a much smaller amount of index futures. Or you buy sell an even tinier amount of volatility.

If you sold volatility, you're be said to be “short volatility.” 

And who is “short volatility”, as revealed in their most recently released meeting notes? The Federal Reserve.

This is critically important because...