ECB

Insider

Off The Cuff: Yes, The Central Banks Really Are Starting To Tighten

Expect EVERYTHING you know about the markets to change
Tuesday, July 10, 2018, 10:40 AM

In this week's Off The Cuff podcast, Chris and Wolf Richter discuss:

  • Tesla As A Symbol Of Silicon Valley
    • Way more hype than substance right now
  • Are Central Banks Really Starting To Tighten?
    • It's looking like indeed so
  • How The Rising Dollar Is Killing Emerging Markets
    • It's just math. Really cruel math.
  • Popping Of The Global Housing Bubble?
    • Australia may be leading the way down

The Fed has reduced its balance sheet so far this year to the tune of $100 billion, and is hoping to be reducing at the rate of $50 billion per month by October. The ECB has announced it will stop making purchases by the end of the year. And, surpringly, even the profligate Bank of Japan is showing signs of reducing its balance sheet.

Click to listen to a sample of this Off the Cuff Podcast or Enroll today to access the full audio as well as all of PeakProsperity.com's other premium content.
Blog

A Hard Rain's a-Gonna Fall

The prospects for the rest of the year are awful
Friday, June 15, 2018, 6:55 PM

As the Federal Reserve kicked off its second round of quantitative easing in aftermath of the Great Financial Crisis, hedge fund manager David Tepper predicted that nearly all assets would rise tremendously in response. 

History proved Tepper right: financial and other risk assets have shot the moon. Equities have long since rocketed past their pre-crisis highs, bonds continued rising as interest rates stayed at historic lows, and many real estate markets are now back in bubble territory. 

And everyone learned to love the 'Fed put' and stop worrying.

But as King Louis XV and Bob Dylan both warned us, what's coming next will change everything. » Read more

Blog

The End Of Stimulus? (And The Start Of The Crash?)

What the most important chart in the world is predicting
Friday, May 25, 2018, 7:29 PM

Back in January of 2016 we saw what appeared to be, and in my opinion should have been, the end of the Everything Bubble blown by the word's central banking cartel.

The carnage started in the emerging markets. Highly-leveraged positions and carry trades began to unwind. That's a fancy way of saying that all the big, sophisticated investors -- who were busy borrowing heavily in countries with cheap money (the US, Japan, and Europe) and using that debt to speculate in markets offering higher yields (junk debt, emerging markets, stocks, etc.) -- began to reverse their trades.

We are now seeing the same rapidly-deteriorating sequence in the markets today, here in late May 2018. And this time, it doesn't look like the central banks will be able to ride to the rescue as they have time and again over the past decade. » Read more

Blog

Reuters

It's Looking A Lot Like 2008 Now...

Did today's market plunge mark the start of the next crash?
Friday, February 2, 2018, 9:57 PM

Economic and market conditions are eerily like they were in late 2007/early 2008.

Remember back then? Everything was going great. Home prices were soaring. Jobs were plentiful.

The great cultural marketing machine was busy proclaiming that a new era of permanent prosperity had dawned, thanks to the steady leadership of Alan Greenspan and later Ben Bernanke. And only a small cadre of cranks, like me, was singing a different tune; warning instead that a painful reckoning in our financial system was approaching fast.

It's fitting that I'm writing this on Groundhog Day, as to these veteran eyes, it sure has been looking a lot like late 2007/early 2008 lately... » Read more

Podcast

Doug Noland: There Will Be No Way Out When This Market Bubble Bursts

Financial assets will become toxic to hold
Monday, December 11, 2017, 3:07 PM

This week Doug Noland joins the podcast to discuss what he refers to as the "granddaddy of all bubbles".

He certainly shares our views that prices in nearly every financial asset class have become remarkably distorted due to central bank intervention, first with Greenspan's actions to backstop the markets in the late-1980's, and more recently (and more egregiously) with the combined central banking cartel's massive and sustained liquidity injections in the years following the Great Financial Crisis.

All of which has blown the biggest inter-connected set of asset price bubbles the world has ever seen. Noland foresees tremendous losses as inevitable, as the central banks lose control of the monstrosity they have created: » Read more

Podcast

Oleksii Sergieiev | Dreamstime

Richard Sylla: This Is An Inherently Dangerous Moment In History

Low interest rates are causing distortions & mis-allocations
Monday, August 7, 2017, 2:42 PM

"The rates we’ve had in recent years, including right now, are the lowest in history. The book that I co-authored on the history of interest rates traces back to the code of Hammurabi, Babylonian civilization, Greek and Roman civilization, the Middle Ages, the Renaissance, and early modern history right up to the present. And I can assure our listeners that the rates that they’re experiencing right now are the lowest in human history."

So says Richard Sylla, Professor Emeritus of Economics and the Former Henry Kaufman Professor of the History of Financial Institutions and Markets at New York University's Stern School of Business. He is also co-author of the book A History Of Interest Rates

We invited Professor Sylla onto the podcast after hearing his work favorably referenced by the panel convened at the recent hearing held by the US Congress titled: “The Federal Reserve’s Impact on Main Street, Retirees and Savings.”

Based on his deep study across the scope of millennia of human history, Sylla warns we are at a dangerous moment in time. » Read more

Insider

Andrew Cline/Shutterstock

Off The Cuff: The Pin To Pop This Bubble?

Political instability is becoming a top risk
Thursday, July 27, 2017, 1:55 PM

In this week's Off The Cuff podcast, Chris and Dave Fairtex discuss:

  • Whither These Markets Goest From Here?
    • Lots of scary data, but Dr. Copper is feeling lucky
  • Revisiting The Ka-POOM Theory
    • Might we avoid the Ka and go directly to POOM?
  • The Impact of Artificial Intelligence
    • It surely a game changer. But how?
  • Gold
    • Are the recent moves just a head-fake?

Dave Fairtex, PeakProsperity.com's precious metals daily analyst from Singapore, joins Chris this week to opine on a wide range of topics from the markets, to AI, to the refugee crisis in Europe. The two spend time talking about where the catalyst for a market correction is most likely to come from. And while there is a plethora of candidates, Dave sees political risk as topping the list:

My sense is that I think the central planners have the monetary thing wired. Let’s take the ECB. They have figured out a way to make it so that strictly monetary issues don’t cause problems anymore.

So what that leaves us with is political problems. That’s why I'm looking at what’s happening here, with the migrants in Europe and all the rest of it.Trump was an indicator that the central banks have the money stuff nailed down, but they don’t have the political movements fully under control.

So the longer-term stuff about screwing the savers and all the rest of it – that stuff they can’t control. I don’t know; maybe money printing works until the political situation changes. That’s where I’m leaning right now. 

Click to listen to a sample of this Off the Cuff Podcast or Enroll today to access the full audio and other premium content today.
Podcast

perfectlab/Shutterstock

Steen Jakobsen: 60% Probability Of Recession In The Next 18 Months

The world economic engine is slowing to a standstill
Sunday, June 11, 2017, 6:46 PM

Steen Jakobsen back on, Chief Investment Officer of Saxo Bank, returns to the podcast this week to share with us the warning signs of slowing economic growth he's seeing in major markets all over the world.

In his view, the world economy is sputtering badly. So badly, that he's confident predicting a global recession by 2018 -- or sooner. » Read more

Blog

NicO_l/Shutterstock

2016 Year In Review

A Clockwork Orange
Thursday, December 22, 2016, 9:03 PM

Every year, friend-of-the-site David Collum writes a detailed "Year in Review" synopsis full of keen perspective and plenty of wit. This year's is no exception. As with past years, he has graciously selected PeakProsperity.com as the site where it will be published in full. It's quite longer than our usual posts, but worth the time to read in full. » Read more

Blog

SkillUp/Shutterstock

Hell To Pay

The final condition for a market crash is falling into place
Friday, September 23, 2016, 5:23 PM

Those familiar with my writing know I put the word “markets” in quotes because we no longer have a financial system where legitimate price discovery is a regular -- or even recognizable -- feature.

It's destined to fail. What more can be said about such a flawed system?

Well, a lot as it turns out. 

And failure to pay attention at this stage of economic and ecological history will prove to be exceptionally painful. » Read more