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2014 Year in Review: Part 2

Will 2015 be the year it all comes tumbling down?
Friday, December 19, 2014, 12:27 PM

This year has been all about risk—existential risk. Some of it seemed to dissipate and some lingers.  Market valuations remain risky—regression to the mean could easily provide a 50% haircut and more if we observe regression through the mean. This has not come to pass, but the risk is very real.

Those who seek risk in markets will eventually find it. » Read more




How worried should you be?
Wednesday, October 15, 2014, 9:35 AM

What Ebola reminds us of is that when a true pandemic arrives it will travel much faster than those in the past (thanks to air travel being an order of magnitude faster than dawning recognition) and that our complex, highly leveraged, just-in-time global economy is utterly unprepared for even a minor glitch in the flow of goods let alone the virtual lockdown that a true pandemic would require.

A small amount of preparing can make you much less vulnerable should (when?) that comes to pass. » Read more


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Prudent Precautions To Take Now

Panic? No. Prepare? Yes.
Wednesday, October 15, 2014, 9:34 AM

Executive Summary

  • Who is at risk of contracting ebola?
  • What are the odds of the current string becoming more virulent?
  • The worrisome responses governments are considering
  • Should a pandemic occur, here's what you need to survive it

If you have not yet read Part 1: Ebola! available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.

Those At Greatest Risk

Those at greatest risk of catching Ebola have close and prolonged contact with Ebola victims. Caregivers seem particularly at risk probably because of their proximity (closeness) and the length of time they are in contact.

One measure of how much we need to fear a particular virus is how effective it is in crossing hosts. Some viruses are really incredible at it, such as measles which infects an average of 18 other people from each sick person.

The chart below puts Ebola at the very low end of infectivity:


There are a host of complicating factors at work in determining just how infective a virus is, and one of those factors is whether or not you can look at the person while they are in the transmissive phase and see that they are sick. If you can, you may avoid them or take extra precautions.

Again, the Ebola victims are in obviously bad shape by the time they are in the infective stage.

However, I think we are going to have to nudge Ebola over to the right a bit on that above chart because it now seems probable that the mode of infection for this current strain is a whole lot easier than initially thought.

The CDC still claims that the only way to catch Ebola is by direct contact with fluids from an infected person.

However, it's been known since 2012 that direct contact is not necessary as this study rather conclusively proved that... [Sign In/Enroll to read the full article] » Read more

Daily Prep

Ebola Outbreak News Forum

Discussion group and updated news
Wednesday, October 1, 2014, 6:59 PM

A continuous news thread and discussion group here at PP that has been tracking the Ebola Outbreak since July of this year.  Lots of great links, analysis, and preventative considerations for dealing with this horrible virus.  Check it out and join the discussion.