When Short-Term Thinking Slams Into Long-Term Predicaments

Guess which side trumps the other?
Monday, January 12, 2015, 8:10 PM

The tendency to make long-term decisions based on near-term data is simply part of the human condition. We tend to discount the future very heavily in favor of what's close and familiar.

The problem is that we are facing dozens of linked long-term predicaments which will require us to put off immediate satisfaction in favor of far-reaching considerations. » Read more


A Short Lesson in Bad Decision-Making

Humans are simply bad at assessing risk
Friday, January 11, 2013, 5:02 PM

In business school I had to take an introductory class in statistics that we colloquially called "D&D." The official course name was Data & Decision-making.

In retrospect, it was a truly valuable class (one of very few I encountered in b-school). If you can figure out how to use statistics to determine the most probable outcome from a set of scenarios, or find predictive correlations from within a sea of data, that's real power. You can take a lot of the guesswork out of decision-making and consequently make the "right" call much more often. » Read more