currency wars

Podcast

Peak Prosperity

A New Way to Hold Gold (2015 Update)

Right alongside the bills in your wallet
Saturday, February 21, 2015, 11:09 PM

What if you could carry and exchange gold in the exact same manner as you do with the dollar bills in your wallet?

Last year, we introduced the precious metals community to a company called Valaurum, which has developed a technology that's making this possible.

This week, we check in to see what's new (spoiler alert: Lots), as well as announce the availability of the new 2015 Peak Prosperity aurum note. » Read more

Insider

Maslowski Marcin/Shutterstock

What Will Happen Next For the US Dollar

And why it will be bad for all, including America
Wednesday, February 18, 2015, 10:44 PM

Executive Summary

  • Why currency wars are heating up, and will get more intense from here
  • Why it's critical to understand the influence that Triffin's Paradox has on the situation
  • Why global crises will cause the dollar to strengthen further
  • What will happen next

If you have not yet read How Many More “Saves” Are Left in the Central Bank Bazookas? available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.

In Part 1, we reviewed the deterioration of the dominant narrative of the past six years—that central banks can move markets higher and generate growth more or less at will.  In shorthand: central bank omnipotence.

Three dynamics are undermining that narrative: diminishing returns on central bank monetary policies and public relations pronouncements; a collapse in oil prices that is destabilizing a key sector of the global economy, and the strengthening U.S. dollar, which is wreaking havoc on emerging-market currencies and economies.

If central banks really had such absolute control of the financial universe, would they let these three trends undermine their policies and power? The answer is clearly “no.”

There are a number of other factors undermining the “central banks are in control” narrative, but the field of battle where central banks are most likely to lose is foreign exchange (FX), for two fundamental reasons:

1.  The FX market dwarfs the central banks. The equivalent of the entire Federal Reserve balance sheet ($4.5 trillion) trades in the FX markets every few days.  Given the size of the market, central banks cannot manipulate the FX market via proxies or direct purchases for long. The only central-bank controlled factors that influence FX are interest rates paid on government bonds and money-printing. The first supports the currency, the second weakens it.

2.  The FX market is still an open market, influenced by government bond interest rates, trade deficits and surpluses, perceptions of risk and speculative bets. This mix is much more dynamic than the two levers controlled by central banks: setting interest rates targets and creating new money to buy bonds.

Let’s trace the primary dynamics of the FX market, which is currently being destabilized by the rising U.S. dollar... » Read more

video

This chapter of the new Crash Course series has not yet been made available to the public.

Each week over the rest of 2014, in sequential order, a new chapter will be made publicly available (we've currently published up to Chapter 8)

If you don't want to wait, you can:

 

 

 

 

Podcast

JessesCrossroadsCafe.com

Jim Rickards: The Coming Crisis is Bigger Than The Fed

And will arrive within the next 3-5 years
Sunday, April 13, 2014, 4:03 PM

James Rickards, financier and author of the excellent cautionary best-seller Currency Wars, has recently released a follow-on book: The Death of Money: The Coming Collapse of the International Monetary System. In it, Jim details how history provides plenty of precedent for the collapse that has begun amidst the major world currencies.

The historical progression is predictable enough that Jim is comfortable claiming that the next economic crisis we face will be bigger than the ability of the Federal Reserve (and the other world central banks) to contain it. And that such a calamity will happen within the next five years: » Read more

Podcast

Bud Conrad: The Bursting of the Bond Bubble Is Now Upon Us

And the results will be calamitous
Saturday, October 12, 2013, 2:55 PM

At the recent Casey Research conference in Tucson, AZ, Casey chief economist Bud Conrad stepped up to the podium, reached into his pocket, and pulled out a balloon, which he proceeded to inflate. As it grew, it become clear the word "BONDS" was written across it. For dramatic effect, Bud continued inflating the balloon until it popped. He then looked at the audience and said, "I hope I'm making a point." » Read more

Podcast

Jim Rickards: We're Witnessing One of the Greatest Failed Experiments in Economic History

It all ends in the collapse of the dollar
Saturday, September 21, 2013, 3:50 PM

Jim Rickards, author of the best-seller Currency Wars, sees the world's central banks embroiled in a "race to debase" their currencies in order to restore – at any cost – growth to their weakened economies.

In the midst of the fight, the U.S. Federal Reserve wields oversized power due to the dollar's unique position as the global reserve currency. As a result, actions by the Fed create huge percussive ripples across the battlefield, often influencing events in ways little understood by the players – and especially by the Fed itself.

In Rickards' words, the policymakers at the Fed "think they are dialing a thermostat up and down, but they're actually playing with a nuclear reactor – and they could melt the whole thing down": » Read more

guest

Jim Rickards

Jim Rickards

James G. Rickards is an American lawyer, economist, and investment banker with 35 years of experience working in capital markets on Wall Street. He is a writer and is a regular commentator on finance. Rickards advised clients of an impending financial collapse, of a decline in the dollar and a sharp rise in the price of gold, all years in advance. Rickards is the author of The New York Times bestseller Currency Wars, published in 2011.

Blog

The Arrival of Japan's Sunset

The repercussions will be tremendous
Monday, February 18, 2013, 6:05 PM

For a successful technology, reality must take precedence over public relations, for nature cannot be fooled. ~ Richard Feynman

Waiting for Japan's economy to make a strong recovery has been an ongoing game since 1990. Shall we play that game one more time? » Read more