crisis

Insider

Dreamstime

Is This It?

Has the next Great Financial Crisis just started?
Friday, February 2, 2018, 9:58 PM

Executive Summary

  • The significance of the recent spike in interest rates
  • Is the US dollar weakness a sign of other countries walking away from the US?
  • Are rising oil prices serving to pop the market bubble (as predicted)? Where are they headed from here?
  • Is this it? Is the top in? And if so, what should concerned investors do right now?

If you have not yet read Part 1: The Central Bank’s Reign of Error, available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.

Is this it then?  Is the top in?  The last few days have been extremely turbulent in the markets with the Dow Jones declining nearly 1,000 points in just this week.

Given the smoke swirling around the global rise in interest rates, I’m certain there’s something afoot.  The real question is whether or not the central banks are going to step in here to rescue everything again.

Alas, I don’t have access to that information but a betting person would say “yes.”  Everything they’ve done over the past 10 years has communicated quite clearly that the central banks are terrified of the Franken-Markets they’ve created.  Specifically, they are terrified of them going down and revealing the extent of the fraud.

However, we have to remain alert to the idea that the markets are indeed larger than the central banks, at least when they begin to move in earnest, and that the central banks have not been able to alter the laws of reality.  Resources matter.  Debt levels matter.  Leverage matters.  Well, eventually they do, and maybe that time has come?

If so, we all need to be ready for a very rocky ride ahead because... » Read more

Podcast

Matthew Stein: When Disaster Strikes

Urgent advice on pre- & post-emergency steps to take
Saturday, September 9, 2017, 11:58 PM

To make sense of which steps are most important to take soonest when preparing for a major disaster, we've invited Matthew Stein back on the program.

Mat is a design engineer, green builder, and author of the two bestselling books: When Disaster Strikes: A Comprehensive Guide to Emergency Planning and Crisis Survival (Chelsea Green 2011), and When Technology Fails: A Manual for Self-Reliance, Sustainability, and Surviving the Long Emergency (Chelsea Green 2008).

On this week's podcast, Mat details his recommended steps for those facing imminent threat of crisis (Hurricane Irma), those with more time to prepare for one (Hurricane Jose), and those dealing with the aftermath of disaster (Hurricane Harvey).

 
Insider

Opportunity In Crisis

Be one of those who prospers from the coming change
Friday, October 14, 2016, 6:33 PM

Executive Summary

  • The systemic markers that precede collapse
  • The approaching end of our current 'unlimited growth' paradigm
  • Is a collapse inevitable? Or can we evolve gracefully to a new model?
  • The opportunity within the coming change

If you have not yet read Part 1: What Triggers Collapse? available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.

What Triggers Collapse?

Many authors (Jared Diamond, Joseph Tainter, Thomas Homer-Dixon, David Hackett Fischer,   Michael Grant and Peter Turchin, to name a few) have delved into the question of why civilizations decay and fail.  The question of how nations/empires endure gets considerably less attention, but economic/social adaptability, the resilience of shared purpose/social cohesion, social mobility, the ability to generate reliable surpluses, secure trade routes, a professional army and navy to defend borders and trade routes, a merit-based a professional bureaucracy to collect taxes and oversee commerce, a stable form of money and competent leadership all play critical roles.

But history is replete with examples of nation-states and empires that possess all these positive attributes that still decay and collapse once critical supplies of energy and food fail, or invaders conquer essential territories or trade routes.

Can we generalize the dynamics that weaken a nation/empire to the point where collapse cannot be staved off?

The authors listed above have highlighted the following systemic dynamics... » Read more

Podcast

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Recent Chris Appearances In The Media

A slew of good interviews to catch up on
Monday, September 12, 2016, 3:09 PM

Chris has been in high demand over the past few weeks, as media outlets try to make sense of the options available to the Federal Reserve at this point. More and more, the confidence in the asset price bubbles blown by the Fed's "endless easing" policy is coming under scrutiny by the average observer.

How much longer can it continue? What are the long-term societal costs of this central bank intervention?

And more important: What will trigger the return to higher interest rates? (and thereby, the puncturing of the bubbles blown by the Fed)  And what will the repercussions be? » Read more

Blog

wikimedia

Grasshopper Nation: Planning For Those Who Aren't Prepared

Whom will you help? And how much will you be able to?
Friday, June 3, 2016, 9:40 PM

Our resources are finite. Most of us don't feel we have all that we require to meet our own needs and goals. And the best-laid preparations of the most planful of us can suddenly become woefully insufficient if too many unexpected family, friends and neighbors show up demanding our charity. » Read more

Podcast

Matyas Rehak/Shutterstock

FerFAL: Understanding Societal Collapse

Warnings we should heed from Venezuela's crisis
Sunday, May 22, 2016, 1:18 PM

As we write about the risks of our over-indebted economy, of our unsustainable fossil fuel-dependent energy policies, and our accelerating depletion of key resources, it's not a far leap to start worrying about the potential for a coming degradation of our modern lifestyle -- or even the possibility of full-blown societal collapse.

Sadly, collapse is not just a theoretical worry for a growing number of people around the world. They're living within it right now.

This week, we catch up with Fernando "FerFAL" Aguirre, who began blogging during the hyperinflationary destruction of Argentina’s economy in 2001 and has since dedicated his professional career to educating the public about his experiences and observations of its lingering aftermath. Given his first-hand experience with living through, and eventually escaping, economic collapse in South America, we asked him to offer his insider's perspective on the current crisis in Venezuela, as well as the devolving situation in Brazil. » Read more

Blog

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The Year Of The Red Monkey: Volatility Reigns Supreme

To preserve capital, you need to outsmart the monkey
Friday, March 11, 2016, 3:16 PM

In the lunar calendar that started February 8, this is the Year of the Red Monkey. I found this description of the Red Monkey quite apt:

"According to Chinese Five Elements Horoscopes, Monkey contains Metal and Water. Metal is connected to gold. Water is connected to wisdom and danger. Therefore, we will deal with more financial events in the year of the Monkey. Monkey is a smart, naughty, wily and vigilant animal. If you want to have good return for your money investment, then you need to outsmart the Monkey. Metal is also connected to the Wind. That implies the status of events will be changing very quickly. Think twice before you leap when making changes for your finance, career, business relationship and people relationship."

(Source)

In other words, the financial world will be volatile. And few will have the agility and wile to outsmart the market-monkey. » Read more

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How The Seeds Of Revolution Take Root

What motivates a populace to rebel against a regime?
Friday, February 26, 2016, 11:48 AM

Fisher found that a wage/price cycle often ends in transformational social upheaval. While proponents of his model have a wealth of historical examples to draw upon, they miss a key factor:  the vulnerability or resilience of the nation-state facing crises.

Some nations survive invasions, environmental catastrophes, epidemics and inflation without disintegrating into disorder. Something about these nation’s social/ economic /political order makes them more resilient than other nations. So rather than accept the proximate causes of disorder as the sole factors, we should look deeper into the social order for the factors behind a nation’s relative fragility or resilience. » Read more

Insider

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Oil Is Sinking The Markets

Subprime comparisons are now too obvious to ignore
Monday, January 25, 2016, 7:47 PM

A vast, enormous amount of junk-rated oil debt is in deep trouble. Everybody knows this, but saying so has been taboo up until now, at least in polite conversations.

But the parallels to the sub-prime market's role as the "pin that popped the bubble" in 2008 are now too obvious to ignore. » Read more

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Lukiyanova Natalia / frenta/Shutterstock

The Deflation Monster Has Arrived

And it sure looks angry
Friday, January 15, 2016, 8:53 PM

As we’ve been warning for quite a while (too long for my taste): the world’s grand experiment with debt has come to an end. And it’s now unraveling.

Just in the two weeks since the start of 2016, the US equity markets are down almost 10%. Their worst start to the year in history. Many other markets across the world are suffering worse.

If you watched stock prices today, you likely had flashbacks to the financial crisis of 2008. At one point the Dow was down over 500 points, the S&P cracked below key support at 1,900, and the price of oil dropped below $30/barrel. Scared investors are wondering:  What the heck is happening? Many are also fearfully asking: Are we re-entering another crisis? » Read more