crash

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How Long Can The Great Global Reflation Continue?

And what will happen when it ends?
Friday, May 19, 2017, 8:01 PM

Given the extraordinary failure of both Keynesian stimulus and private-sector credit growth to create a self-sustaining cycle of expansion whose benefits flow to the entire workforce rather than to the top few percent, what can we expect going forward? Can we just keep doubling and tripling the economy’s debt load every few years? What if household incomes continue declining? Are these trends sustainable?

In the near-term, is this Great Reflation running out of steam, or is it poised for yet another leg higher? Which is more likely? » Read more

Insider

Positioning Yourself For The Crash

Steps to take before crisis arrives
Friday, March 24, 2017, 12:05 PM

Executive Summary

  • Why economic growth is not going to ride to the rescue
  • The alarming warning signs the auto, fine art, retail & housing industries are flashing now
  • The actions you should be taking now to protect yourself from (and position for) the coming crash

If you have not yet read Part 1: Why This Market Needs To Crash  available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.

Sometimes I wonder if I'm ever going to run out of new things to say about the state of the world, especially economics.  The more obvious our predicaments become to me, the less appetite there seems to be ‘out there’ to discuss them.

What more can be said about a system that is so obviously corrupt and destined to fail, and piles up more and more evidence that this is the case, and yet refuses to engage in the most minimal of introspection? 

Well, lots as it turns out. 

You see, we're finally getting to beginning of the end.  Our long national -- and global -- experiment with using flawed economic models is now running smack dab into reality.

The edifice of central planning omnipotence is crumbling and when it finally breaks down in earnest, the financial markets will implode, the central banks will be overrun and discredited, and investors will discover that overly-long parties come with massive hangovers.

There will be hell to pay.

For reasons we have discussed previously, and extensively,  GDP growth has not been a feature of the world stage for over a decade, and is unlikely to return both because of debt levels that are far too high to support rapid growth and because any return of rapid growth will run smack into higher oil prices.

So…how’s that story working out?  Not so hot.  It’s been sub-par on a global scale for more than a decade. And the same is true for the US.

And here’s where we are today... » Read more

Podcast

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Harry Dent: Stocks Will Fall 70-90% Within 3 Years

Creating the buying opportunity of a lifetime
Monday, January 30, 2017, 1:02 PM

Economist and cycle trend forecaster Harry Dent sees crushing deflation ahead for nearly every financial asset class. We are at the nexus of a concurrent series of downtrends in the four most important predictive trends he tracks.

Laying out the thesis of his new book The Sale Of A Lifetime, Dent sees punishing losses ahead for investors who do not position themselves for safety beforehand. On the positive side, he predicts those that do will have a once-in-a-generation opportunity to buy assets at incredible bargain prices once the carnage ends (and yes, for those of you wondering, he also addresses his outlook for gold). » Read more

Insider

Hoping For A Market Crash

If we inflate much higher, the fall is likely to kill us
Thursday, July 28, 2016, 1:32 AM

We desperately need to have new national and global conversations about everything from how we’ll feed everyone in 2050, to developing a coherent sustainable energy policy, to the fact that each year is hotter than the year before, to the idea that we’re living with a soul crushing sense of scarcity in a world of abundance.

There’s lots that needs addressing, and the process should begin with letting go of the old narrative so that we can make space for assembling the new one. » Read more

Insider

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And.....It's Gone!

Market value everywhere is vaporizing fast
Wednesday, January 20, 2016, 12:00 PM

The deflation monster was evident across the global markets today, and the possibility of a market crash remains as high as ever.

In the overnight session on Tuesday, everything fell apart.

We can now clearly see the tracks of the deflation monster stomping across the world stage. While a retreat into bonds (safety) has happened, that’s just the normal first reaction to such a terrible financial situation.  However, those bonds will prove to be roach motels as the next stage of this monster will be massive bond defaults of all varieties. » Read more

Blog

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The Deflation Monster Has Arrived

And it sure looks angry
Friday, January 15, 2016, 8:53 PM

As we’ve been warning for quite a while (too long for my taste): the world’s grand experiment with debt has come to an end. And it’s now unraveling.

Just in the two weeks since the start of 2016, the US equity markets are down almost 10%. Their worst start to the year in history. Many other markets across the world are suffering worse.

If you watched stock prices today, you likely had flashbacks to the financial crisis of 2008. At one point the Dow was down over 500 points, the S&P cracked below key support at 1,900, and the price of oil dropped below $30/barrel. Scared investors are wondering:  What the heck is happening? Many are also fearfully asking: Are we re-entering another crisis? » Read more

Insider

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Off The Cuff: A Lot Of Deterioration...

The global economy's woes have worsened quickly
Thursday, January 14, 2016, 2:26 AM

In this week's Off The Cuff podcast, Chris and Brian Pretti discuss:

  • A Lot Of Deterioration
    • Why 2016 is off to a very grim start
  • There Will Be Blood
    • The carnage from the drop in oil prices will be horrific
  • Ugly, Ugly Data
    • The economic numbers are shouting sickness worldwide
  • Gold
    • Why 2016 will mark the low
Blog

Markets Are Correcting Hard

An assessment of the risks of things getting worse from here
Friday, January 8, 2016, 1:41 AM

The long-awaited global financial market correction has arrived. We are seeing collapses in all major markets and across all major categories.

As usual, the pain has started at the edges, in the weaker elements (emerging markets, junk bonds, weak companies, etc.) and is rapidly spreading towards the center. » Read more

Insider

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Why A Crash Is Likely

And why we've passed Peak Easy
Friday, January 8, 2016, 1:41 AM

Executive Summary

  • Why a crash is likely
  • Why the machines have won, and regular investors should flee these markets
  • Why the coming oil company bankruptcies will trigger a deflationary rout
  • Why we've passed Peak Easy

If you have not yet read Markets Are Correcting Hard, available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.

The Larger Lesson (Why A Crash Is Likely)

Look, the financial markets are broken -- the US, in China, and largely everywhere else around the globe. The sad fact is that the regulators have utterly failed to impose any meaningful limits on the rise of the computers and their high frequency hi-jinks.

Now those computers dominate the entire market landscape for better and, eventually, worse.

The reason I say ‘worse’ is because the computers deliver the appearance, but not the reality, of market liquidity.

As long as they detect that everything is operating normally, or at least within their accepted bands or limits, then they indeed provide plenty of liquidity. But when events exceed those limits?

The computers just shut down, revealing the true lack of market depth. The key story of all markets, bonds, commodities, futures and equities, is that each has experienced a vast diminishment of liquidity.

Share volumes are down on the equity exchanges as fewer and fewer participants are willing play a rigged game. That’s not just... » Read more

Insider

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What The Heck Just Happened?!?

Prepare for more bruising days ahead in the markets
Tuesday, August 25, 2015, 12:37 AM

Okay... time to take a deep breath.

Today was an historic market day.  First for the computer driven plunge that was seemingly unstoppable, and then for the heroic rescue that at one point brought the whole mess back to green (Nasdaq) or close to it (S&P and Dow). » Read more