correction

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Markets Are Correcting Hard

An assessment of the risks of things getting worse from here
Friday, January 8, 2016, 1:41 AM

The long-awaited global financial market correction has arrived. We are seeing collapses in all major markets and across all major categories.

As usual, the pain has started at the edges, in the weaker elements (emerging markets, junk bonds, weak companies, etc.) and is rapidly spreading towards the center. » Read more

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Has The Market Trend Shifted From Bull To Bear?

Why the recent volatility may mark a secular shift
Friday, October 23, 2015, 4:12 PM

Emotions are running high for the investment community in the wake of recent market volatility. Up until August, we had been in the third longest period in market history without a 10% correction. Since then, stock indices sold off hard, only to bounce once again over the past two weeks of trading.

And certainly the truth is….No one knows. Especially in today’s world where global central banks can concoct further QE/monetary schemes at the drop of a hat.  Let’s face it, at this point the global central banks are all in. In fact, beyond all in. Without question, the US Fed knows that if equities fall, they lose the high end consumer. (Wal-Mart shoppers have already long been lost)  » Read more

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For Heaven's Sake: Hedge!

If you're not positioned defensively by now, you're nuts
Thursday, April 30, 2015, 10:58 PM

Last fall, I wrote an article titled Defying Gravity that warned of the absurd price levels that stocks and bonds had risen to. Less than a month later, the stock market abruptly dropped by 7%. Those who didn't seek safety in advance were left licking their wounds, panicked not knowing if the painful down-draft was over.

So here we are roughly six months later, and the same warning bells are ringing -- just louder this time. » Read more

Insider

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Off the Cuff: Market Mayhem

After the recent carnage, what's next?
Thursday, October 16, 2014, 9:12 PM

In this week's Off the Cuff podcast, Chris and Alasdair MacLeod discuss:

  • The Market Meltdown
    • What the heck just happened?
  • The Next Round of Bailouts
    • If you hate the problem, wait till you see the solutions
  • Gold
    • Ready for a return to the limelight?
  • Ebola
    • Is the media selling us too much fear?
Blog

Gravity Returns - The Market Drops Nearly 5% in 3 Days

Years-long trends are finally breaking
Monday, October 13, 2014, 7:14 PM

A month ago, in an analysis titled Defying Gravity, I wrote about the unsustainable state of the stock market's high prices.

In it, I noted how the stock market had risen for an aberrantly-long time time without a correction, and that it hadn't even tested its 200-daily moving average price once since the beginning of 2012: » Read more

Insider

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Death Cross on the Russell 2000

Another likely harbinger of a coming market correction
Monday, September 22, 2014, 7:51 PM

One of the 'targets' I've had my eye on in the market has been the Russell 2000, a small cap stock index comprised of the smallest 2000 companies in the Russell 3000 index.

The reason I've been tracking this index carefully, along with junk bonds, is that the small companies usually give you an advance heads-up on trouble soon headed for the larger cap companies and stock indexes.

 
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Defying Gravity

The case for hedging against a market downturn
Wednesday, September 10, 2014, 12:05 AM

Today's markets exist in an Oz-like, fantasy world. For 5 years now, stock and bond prices have risen like Dorothy's balloon, without so much as a puff of downdraft to spoil the fun.

Everybody likes higher prices, so let's have them always go up! Forever!

Whether that can happen is a topic of current hot debate, though few think corrections have been permanently banished from the financial markets. » Read more

Insider

Off the Cuff: Red Sky at Morning

Investors take warning
Thursday, February 28, 2013, 6:28 PM

In this week's Off the Cuff podcast, Chris and Adam discuss:

  • Rough Seas Ahead
    • Chris issues a rare warning for a 40%+ correction in the stock market
  • Happy Sequester!
    • What will its impact be?
  • The Japan Mess
    • Looking more & more like it will be the first major country/currency to fail
  • The "Affordable" Care Act
    • A misnomer if there ever was one
  • The Barnburner at Rowe
    • This year's seminar is shaping up to be one for the ages
Blog

Warning: Stocks Likely to Crater from Here

Losses of over 50% (!) may be in store
Thursday, February 28, 2013, 11:34 AM

I don't relish the job of constantly pointing out the risks to the equity markets. But since few on Wall Street seem willing (or able) to do this, I'm "making the call" for a market correction, as enough variables have aligned to indicate a high likelihood of stocks heading downwards from here.

I've only given one other such warning about equities before, and that was in March of 2008, when I warned of the possibility of a 40% to 60% decline in stock prices by Fall. I am making a similar call today, with the understanding that I am usually a bit early to the game with my views. » Read more