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That Roaring Sound You Hear…

Markets are shouting deflation
Monday, August 3, 2015, 9:05 PM

Ok folks, the deflation we’ve been tracking is gathering steam. We're now seeing new signs on a daily basis. » Read more


Ivan Cholakov/Shutterstock

Deflation Is Winning – Beware!

Expect the ride to get even rougher
Friday, July 24, 2015, 11:03 AM

Deflation is back on the front burner and it's going to destroy all of the careful central planning and related market manipulation of the past 6 years.

Clear signs from the periphery indicate that a destructive deflationary pulse has been unleashed. Tanking commodity prices are confirming that idea.  » Read more


Wikimedia Commons

Assume The Crash Position

What this means for gold, oil, copper & real forms of wealth
Friday, July 24, 2015, 11:03 AM

Executive Summary

  • The entire commodity complex is breaking down
  • What to expect next
  • What will happen with gold
  • What all this means for the future

If you have not yet read Part 1: Deflation Is Winning – Beware! available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.

Commodity Bust


'Dr. Copper' is so named for the metal's uncanny ability to both diagnose current economic activity and deliver a prognosis on future activity. Right now, it's saying the patient is very sick and not likely to recover any time soon:

Copper has just broken through key support (in dotted circles) and looks like it could fall further. Notice the behavior of copper in 2008/09 and you’ll see that paying attention to copper is a good idea.


Oil has obviously fallen by a lot, with WTIC crude well under $50 again today, signaling ...  » Read more


National Archives and Records Administration (NARA)

The Environment: Depleting Resources - Crash Course Chapter 23

Why scarcity will define the future
Friday, November 28, 2014, 3:44 PM

The bottom line is this: we, as a species, all over the globe, have already mined the richest ores, found the easiest energy sources, and farmed the richest soils that our Environment has to offer.

We have taken several hundreds of millions of years of natural ore body, fossil energy deposition, aquifer accumulation, soil creation, and animal population growth -- and largely burned through them in the few years since oil was discovered. It is safe to say that in human terms, once these are gone, man, they’re gone. » Read more


This chapter of the new Crash Course series has not yet been made available to the public.

Each week over the rest of 2014, in sequential order, a new chapter will be made publicly available (we've currently published up to Chapter 21)

If you don't want to wait, you can:






Understanding the Secular Shift of Capital into Commodities

Higher prices can happen even if the economy slows further
Tuesday, July 16, 2013, 9:27 PM

Executive Summary

  • The commodity complex is already beginning to rise following oil's upside breakout
  • Natural gas is trending higher
  • Copper appears to have bottomed
  • Wheat and coffee's downtrends are ending
  • A secular rise in commodities can happen even in the face of slower economic growth and lower demand

If you have not yet read Part I: Get Ready for Rising Commodity Prices available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.

In Part I, we examined the conventional narratives used to explain the price of oil and found that they no longer account for oil’s breakout to a new uptrend.  I suggested that financialization and speculation could power oil much higher, despite sagging global demand for physical oil and a potentially deflationary global recession.

This thesis has been met with widespread skepticism when I’ve aired it privately, and I think this skepticism arises from the newness of this narrative. In the past, oil has responded to supply-demand and inflation/deflation. The notion that oil could rise in a finance-induced “scarcity amidst plenty” is neither simple nor intuitive.

If oil tracks higher, we can anticipate that the primary commodities (energy, agricultural, and construction) may well rise, even as end-user demand weakens, as oil underpins all production and transport. The 2.5% rise in producer prices over the past year suggests this is already occurring.

The secondary reason is that lower prices eventually push marginal producers out of business, tightening supply and giving the remaining producers pricing power.

As noted in Part I, regardless of what we see as key drivers or what we think oil “should do,” oil has broken out technically.

Is there any evidence to support the idea that the uptrend in oil will trigger higher prices in other commodities? Let’s start with the CRB (Commodity Research Bureau) index that reflects a basket of commodities... » Read more

Daily Digest

Image by thelightinlife, Flickr Creative Commons

Daily Digest 5/7 - France's Budget Gap Widens, Australia Faces Decade Of Debt

Wednesday, May 8, 2013, 10:03 AM
  • Unemployment haunts Social Security recipients
  • Spanish Banks Refinanced, Restructured $272.4 Billion in Loans
  • Australia faces decade of debt, economists warn
  • France's budget gap widens in March
  • L.A. city employees urge leaders to go after uncollected fees, taxes to balance $7.7B budget
  • Copper theft epidemic has lawmakers looking for answers
  • Wall Street sees Fed buying $1.25 trillion of assets in stimulus: Reuters poll
  • India's cheap food plans to prove costly for government
  • French Industrial Output Drops as Hollande Aims to Revive Growth
  • Wichita school district counts record number of homeless children
  • Greenspan-Era Faith in Fed Seen With Bernanke: Chart of the Day
  • Many Americans say they can't retire until their 70s or 80s
  • Bankers Warn Fed of Farm, Student Loan Bubbles Echoing Subprime
  • Australian Central Bank Cuts Key Rate to Historic Low
  • New red light camera law could raise cost of appeals
  • Moody’s Says Cities View ‘Strategic Default’ as Less Taboo