contagion

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What Will Happen When Japan Breaks

Mapping the contagion risk to world markets
Thursday, November 6, 2014, 8:36 AM

Executive Summary

  • The data that proves Japan is a ticking time bomb
  • Why the yen may still fall a lot further from here
  • How Japan's contagion can threaten world markets (and yes, the US)
  • Why the contagion is now underway, and what you should do about it

If you have not yet read Central Planners Are In A State of Panic available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.

Japan, By The Numbers

I completely understand why the Japanese authorities are freaking out and taking enormous risks.  It's because they have no good choices left.  More fundamentally (and worse) they are in charge of a system that is destined to fail.

Exponential money systems have to eventually fail because all paper money is just a marker for real wealth, it is not real wealth itself, and therefore ever-increasing exponential paper claims being stacked up  against a world of real wealth that is growing much less quickly (and someday reversing entirely) is a mathematical formula for a monetary accident.

But it's quite bizarre that Japan, of all places, cannot see through to this math predicament given their very publicly and often discussed demographic decline.

Having peaked at 128 million in 2005, Japan now has 127 million inhabitants and is on its way to 90 million by 2050, and 45 million by ~2100.

(Source)

This means that.. » Read more

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The Periphery is Failing

The next big economic dislocation might be only weeks away
Tuesday, August 27, 2013, 3:04 PM

For years we've preached the From the Outside In principle of markets: When trouble starts, it nearly always does so out in the weaker periphery before creeping towards the core.

We saw this in the run-up to the housing bubble collapse, as sub-prime mortgages gave way before prime loans, and in Europe, as smaller economies like Greece, Ireland, and Cyprus have fallen first and hardest (so far).  We see this today in accelerating food stamp use among poorer U.S. households.  In each case, the weaker economic parties give way first before being followed, over time, by the stronger ones.

Using this framework, we can often get several weeks to several months of advance notice before trouble erupts in the next ring closer to the center.

Which makes today notable, as we're receiving a number of new warning signs.  The periphery is giving way. » Read more

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Off the Cuff: Contagion Within Europe

Europe's leaders are resorting to shoddy number tricks a 4th
Sunday, June 17, 2012, 6:15 AM

In this week's Off the Cuff with Mish & Chris podcast, Mish and Chris discuss:

  • Desperate Measures
    • The math behind the latest 'rescue' attempts is so broken it falls apart at first glance
  • How Much Time Do We Have Left?
    • The day of reckoning is approaching, but Europe is showing us we still have time left to act
  • Where to Park Capital
    • The options worth considering grow fewer in number, though Europeans should take action soon

Europe continues to figure prominently in Chris and Mish's minds at the moment. The action there is what's driving the world agenda right now, and the decisions taken to address the European crisis will have tremendous impact on the financial markets around the globe. Much is happening right now -- but for longtime 'Off the Cuff' listeners, it's important to keep in perspective that little has actually changed. Europe's problem is a mathematical one. Too many bad loans were made. In practically every country. Steep losses will need to be taken. Taking those losses will place painful deflationary pressure on asset prices. The key question is: how much new money will central banks print to service and retire those debts?...