central bank

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Off The Cuff: The Fed Is Driving Blind

Insider insights from a recent gathering of Fed officials
Monday, May 21, 2018, 3:11 PM

In this week's Off The Cuff podcast, Chris and Axel Merk discuss:

  • The Fed Is Driving Blind
    • QE has rendered all signals useless
  • The Risk Of Recession Is 100%
    • The only question that matters is When?
  • Axel's Report From A Recent Gathering Of Fed Officials
    • From inside the Hoover Institution
  • Forecasting The Price Of Gold & Oil
    • Bullish reasons to hold both right now

Having recently returned from a private gathering of Federal Reserve officials, Axel shares his observations with us. In a nutshell, he sees the Fed as now following the market. His prediction is that they will keep tightening right up to the point where the market buckles under the higher rates, and at that point, it will be too late to prevent a major market correction, and likely, a plummet into economic recession.

Click to listen to a sample of this Off the Cuff Podcast or Enroll today to access the full audio as well as all of PeakProsperity.com's other premium content.
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It’s High Time For Action

Get ready for disruption
Friday, October 20, 2017, 8:27 PM

Executive Summary

  • Beware the coming reduction in global central bank money printing
  • The full-blown ecological emergency
  • Uncovering the hidden downside risks to the markets
  • Steps to take now

If you have not yet read Part 1: Are You Infuriated Yet?available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.

I keep circling back to the financial markets because they are the chief signaling agent for most people. As long as the markets are doing okay, people’s attention wanders away from our predicaments and towards believing in the dominant "all is fine" narrative.

But, with the crystal-clear connection we see between asset prices and central bank money printing, prices in today's “markets” are really a creation of monetary policy. As a result, the signals the markets send us increasingly have no bearing on actual reality.

Here’s a good example: McDonalds' stock is hitting new high after new high. This is a function of both the ever-rising markets but also of the company's own internal accounting hocus-pocus.

This chart explains much:

(Source)

The red line tells us that MCD’s revenues are down a stunning 15% since 2014. The green line tells us that their stock price is UP an even more stunning 65% over the same time period.

Meanwhile total debt of MCD’s has mushroomed from $14 billion to $29 billion, while total assets have shrunk. Yet MCD's stock price has risen handsomely.

The critical insight this is telling us about today's markets is... » Read more

Blog

Observations From The Heart Of Silicon Valley

The calm before the storm?
Thursday, May 19, 2016, 8:11 PM

Yesterday I made the 2-hour drive back to Silicon Valley, where I lived for 15 years before moving out to the country.

I rarely go back, as I miss very little about the hyper-elite scene there. When I do, though, I feel I have a useful 'insider-now-outsider' perspective that allows me to see things there more accurately than those who live in that fishbowl 24/7.

What hit me most strongly upon arriving back in the Menlo Park/Palo Alto area, is how little of the craziness has changed since I left 4 years ago. I don't mean 'unchanged' though; rather that the same craziness is there, just more extreme than ever. » Read more

Blog

Peak Prosperity

Quantitative Easing - Crash Course Chapter 10

What exactly is this process that the world is betting on?
Friday, August 22, 2014, 9:34 PM

At the exponential pace at which the Fed is increasing the money supply, and knowing the huge challenges the Fed – and most other world central banks  - face in trying to stop or even slow down their money printing, the potential for a disruptive global inflationary period is very real.

So what exactly is quantitative easing» Read more

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This chapter of the new Crash Course series has not yet been made available to the public.

Each week over the rest of 2014, in sequential order, a new chapter will be made publicly available (we've currently published up to Chapter 9)

If you don't want to wait, you can:

  • Enroll today to watch this new chapter right now (as well as all the other chapters of the new Crash Course), or

 

 

 

 

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The Good News In All The Bad Data

A rare convergence of confidence in future developments
Friday, June 13, 2014, 1:14 AM

Today's financial markets make a mockery out of sanity and logic. The difference between what SHOULD happen and what IS happening is perhaps the greatest it has been in our investing lifetimes.

If you're perplexed, flummoxed, frustrated, stymied, enraged, bored, irritated, insulted, discouraged -- any or all of these -- by the ever-higher blind grinding of asset prices over the past several years, despite so many structural reasons for concern, you have good reason to be.

Insider

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How Things Unravel

Slowly, and then all at once.
Wednesday, January 29, 2014, 11:46 PM

In a recent article, I noted the various signs that things are unraveling at the periphery. In the comments that followed, plenty of people (myself included) expressed the belief that the various Powers That Be are doing everything they can to limit the damage as much as possible.

After a full weekend of burning up the phone lines and the midnight oil, the central banks of the world seemed to have calmed things down a bit by Tuesday (1/28/14), as evidenced by directional reversals in the prices of various currencies, gold, and stocks.  Everything that needed to head back the way it came, from a central banker perspective, was headed back in the "right" direction. » Read more

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The Trends to Watch For in 2014

Government overreach, economic stagnation & civil discontent
Tuesday, December 31, 2013, 2:11 AM

At the beginning of this year (2013), I identified eight key dynamics that will play out over the next two to three years (2013-2015). Let’s see how the trends developed... » Read more

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Off the Cuff: Look Locally for Reasons to Hope

That's where productive change is happening
Thursday, November 28, 2013, 3:22 PM

In this week's Off the Cuff podcast, Chris and Gregor discuss:

  • Unjust Wealth Inequality
    • Growing by money printing vs productive output
  • The Evils of Reflationary Policy
    • Stealing from the many to reward the few
  • Our Low-Growth Future
    • Less to go around
  • Local Solutions
    • Where hope lies
Podcast

Bitcoin Architect: Everything You Need To Know About Bitcoin

Money that's resistant to central control
Saturday, August 10, 2013, 12:31 PM

Much has been written over the past year about the new digital currency Bitcoin especially after its price skyrocketed 15x in just a few months, followed by a blow-off correction of over 50%.

But what exactly is it? How does it work? How secure is it? What are its advantages (and disadvantages) to sovereign fiat currencies? To precious metals?

In this week's podcast, Chris talks with Gavin Andresen, chief scientist of the Bitcoin Foundation and lead developer for its digital currency project. » Read more