bull market



The Waiting Is The Hardest Part

Tom Petty's anthem for today's investors
Thursday, October 5, 2017, 5:21 PM

The stock market is now 70% higher than it was as the previous bubble peak immediately preceding the 2008 Great Financial Crisis.

Reflect for a moment how painful the crash from Sept 2008-March 2009 was. How much more painful will a crash from today's much dizzier heights be? » Read more



Has The Market Trend Shifted From Bull To Bear?

Why the recent volatility may mark a secular shift
Friday, October 23, 2015, 4:12 PM

Emotions are running high for the investment community in the wake of recent market volatility. Up until August, we had been in the third longest period in market history without a 10% correction. Since then, stock indices sold off hard, only to bounce once again over the past two weeks of trading.

And certainly the truth is….No one knows. Especially in today’s world where global central banks can concoct further QE/monetary schemes at the drop of a hat.  Let’s face it, at this point the global central banks are all in. In fact, beyond all in. Without question, the US Fed knows that if equities fall, they lose the high end consumer. (Wal-Mart shoppers have already long been lost)  » Read more


Gravity Returns - The Market Drops Nearly 5% in 3 Days

Years-long trends are finally breaking
Monday, October 13, 2014, 7:14 PM

A month ago, in an analysis titled Defying Gravity, I wrote about the unsustainable state of the stock market's high prices.

In it, I noted how the stock market had risen for an aberrantly-long time time without a correction, and that it hadn't even tested its 200-daily moving average price once since the beginning of 2012: » Read more



Defying Gravity

The case for hedging against a market downturn
Wednesday, September 10, 2014, 12:05 AM

Today's markets exist in an Oz-like, fantasy world. For 5 years now, stock and bond prices have risen like Dorothy's balloon, without so much as a puff of downdraft to spoil the fun.

Everybody likes higher prices, so let's have them always go up! Forever!

Whether that can happen is a topic of current hot debate, though few think corrections have been permanently banished from the financial markets. » Read more



The Case for a Crash

And for staying in cash until 2015
Tuesday, December 10, 2013, 4:24 PM

We’ve recently been treated to two mutually exclusive forecasts: that the Great Bull Market will run until 2016 or 2018, so no worries; and that markets are exhibiting bubble-like characteristics that presage another crash.

So which forecast is more likely the correct one? » Read more



The Case for Cash

The wisdom of storing up 'dry powder' today
Tuesday, December 10, 2013, 4:23 PM

Executive Summary

  • Why the next stock market decline could be in excess of 50%
  • What historic indicators of coming decline are telling us
  • The case for holding cash now
  • If the market does roll over substantially in early 2014, how long may the decline last?

If you have not yet read The Case for a Crash, available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.

In Part I, we attempted to answer the question, Which forecast is more likely to be accurate: that the Bull market in stocks will continue for years to come, or the market will swan-dive in yet another multi-year crash?

We concluded that there was little historical evidence to support the claim that the S&P 500 will extend higher for an additional three to five years.

Here in Part II, we’ll look for clues about the possible amplitude and timing of the decline that the five-year cycle of the “new normal” suggests is likely.

(A reminder on gold: I detailed a forecast on gold earlier this year based on price action around key support/resistance levels, and nothing in recent price action has caused me to amend that forecast.  I have also noted that gold does not correlate well with either stocks or the U.S. dollar; i.e., its dynamics are largely independent of stocks and the USD. To the degree that gold is viewed as a “risk-off” safe-haven asset, it should do well if “risk-on” assets such as stocks crater.)

Forecasting the Amplitude of the Next Decline

A number of technical analysts have noted this megaphone pattern in the stock market, a pattern formed by alternating higher highs and lower lows.  This is one basis of forecasts for the SPX to drop to the 500-600 level in the next downdraft, potentially retracing the entire Bull advance from 1995. 

While this megaphone may not play out, it establishes a potential target for a crushing drop from current highs... » Read more