bubbles

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Wolf Richter: The Era Of The Fed "Put" Is Over

It now wants lower asset prices (just not too fast)
Monday, April 2, 2018, 3:39 PM

To all those investors expecting the Fed to step in to backstop the recent weakness seen in the stock market, Wolf Richter warns: The cavalry isn't coming.

After years of force-feeding too much liquidity into world markets, the central banking cartel is now aware of the Franken-markets it has created. And now with a new head at the US Federal Reserve, and soon at the ECB, central bankers have shifted their priority from supporting asset prices to now actively engineering lower prices. » Read more

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girardatlarge.com

The Inescapable Reason Why the Financial System Will Fail

Credit cannot expand faster than fundamentals forever
Friday, December 29, 2017, 8:13 PM

Central banks are now trapped.

If they raise rates to provide low-risk, high-yield returns to institutional owners, they will stifle the “recovery” and the asset bubbles that are dependent on unlimited liquidity and super-low interest rates. But if they keep yields low, the only way institutional investors can earn the gains they need to survive is to pile into risk assets and hope the current bubbles will loft higher.

This conundrum has pushed the central banks into yet another policy extreme: to mask the rising systemic risk created by asset bubbles, central banks have taken to suppressing measures of volatility—measures than in previous eras would reflect the rising risks of extreme asset bubbles deflating.
Blog

silentera.com

The Great Oil Swindle

Is leading us to destruction
Friday, December 15, 2017, 7:41 PM

When it comes to the story we're being told about America's rosy oil prospects, we're being swindled. And the swindle is not just limited to the US.

At its core, the swindle is this: The shale industry's oil production forecasts are vastly overstated.

The false conclusions the world is drawing as a result of the deception and outright lies we're being told is putting our future prosperity in major jeopardy. Policy makers and ordinary citizens alike have been misled, and everyone -- everyone -- is unprepared for the inevitable and massive coming oil price shock. » Read more

Insider

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What To Invest In When The Everything Bubble Bursts

Where will true value be found?
Saturday, October 28, 2017, 1:38 AM

Executive Summary

  • Why conventional analysis may not be our best guide anymore
  • The critical importance of scarcity and value-production
  • Making the most of your time and capital
  • How to best prepare for the popping of the 'Everything' Bubble

If you have not yet read Part 1: What Could Pop the Everything Bubble? available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.

In Part 1, we surveyed the economic and socio-political dynamics that will pop the credit/asset bubbles that have created an illusion of normalcy, continuity and prosperity for the past eight years. So how do we non-elites prepare for the end of the everything bubble and the rise of economic, socio-political disorder?

The Conventional Approach

The conventional approach is to seek out assets that will survive either a deflationary implosion (i.e. an implosive collapse of collateral and debt) or high inflation fueled by massive helicopter money distributions to keep the “growth” machine chugging forward.

The Usual Suspects are real-world tangible assets such as precious metals, real estate, orchards, oil fields, solar panels, etc.  These are touted as survivable assets because their utility value remains intact regardless of whether their price in currencies drops or soars.

Another Usual Suspect is intrinsically scarce collectibles such as fine art, early 1960s-era Fender guitars, etc.

A newcomer is bitcoin and the other leading cryptocurrencies, which are seen by many as holding scarcity value due to their limited issuance.

This approach is commonsensical and sound, as far as it goes. But it is ultimately a financial approach, not much different than any other form of sell high, buy low, sell high advice of switching out of overvalued asset classes into undervalued asset classes, and then riding the uptrend in the undervalued asset until it too is overvalued.

This approach assumes the larger socio-political-economic system will sort itself out in due time, i.e. it assumes continuity based on self-correcting mechanisms built into the financial status quo.

I’m not so sure that the financial system has any self-correcting mechanisms left, or that they will function as expected in a phase shift or supernova implosion.

Put another way... » Read more

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Too Good For Too Long

Over-extended systems contract quickly & violently
Friday, October 13, 2017, 8:42 PM

Having just lived through the massive fires in northern California -- on top of watching news reports over the previous weeks of similarly abrupt "before/after" transitions in Houston, Florida, Puerto Rico, Mexico City, Las Vegas and Catalonia -- I have a new-found appreciation for the maxim that when it arrives, change happens quickly -- usually much more quickly than folks ever imagined, catching the general public off-guard and unprepared.

We humans tend to think linearly and comparatively. In other words, we usually assume the near future will look a lot like the recent past. And it does much of the time.

But other times it doesn't. And that's where the danger lies. » Read more

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You're Likely A Lot Less Prepared For Crisis Than You Realize

Lessons from the recent rash of natural disasters
Friday, September 22, 2017, 3:25 PM

It seems as if Mother Nature is waking up. Either she's trying to send humans an important warning, or perhaps she's just out to kill us all.

Massive storms across the globe, earthquakes, and collapsing ecosystems all combine to remind us that we are indeed intimately connected to our planet's natural systems. And that our well-being rests on staying on Mother Nature's good side.

Well, Mother Nature has seemed pretty pissed at us of late. Her recent punishments should be taken as a disciplinary wake-up call. » Read more

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livelifehappy.com

Better A Year Early Than A Day Too Late

Preparation only has value if it's done in advance
Tuesday, August 22, 2017, 1:42 AM

When it comes, change happens swiftly. And life after -- for better or worse -- is forever different.

I've witnessed this time and time again since co-founding Peak Prosperity. And pretty much every time, I notice that the vast majority of people -- including many of the the watchful and preparation-minded folks who read this site -- are caught by surprise. » Read more

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entrepreneur.com

The Pin To Pop This Mother Of All Bubbles?

A worsening shortfall in new credit creation
Friday, June 16, 2017, 7:23 PM

Global macro economic data has been weak for many years, but there’s now a very real chance of a world-wide recession happening in 2017.

Why? A dramatic and worsening shortfall in new credit creation. » Read more

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Why The Markets Are Overdue For A Gigantic Bust

It's just not possible to print our way to prosperity
Friday, June 9, 2017, 7:38 PM

As much as I try, I simply cannot jump on the bandwagon that says that printing up money out of thin air has any long-term utility for an economy.

It's just too clear to me that doing so presents plenty of dangers, due what we might call 'economic gravity': What goes up, must also come down. » Read more

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When This All Blows Up...

Understanding the how & when of the next economic crash
Saturday, March 11, 2017, 1:01 AM

This report marks the end of a series of three big trains of thought. The first explained how we’re living through the Mother Of All Financial Bubbles. The next detailed the Great Wealth Transfer that is now underway, siphoning our wealth into the pockets of an elite few.

This concluding report predicts how these deleterious and unsustainable trends will inevitably ‘resolve’ (which is a pleasant way of saying ‘blow up’.) » Read more