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Off The Cuff: The Approaching Minsky Moment

The world is unprepared for the reset heading our way
Wednesday, June 21, 2017, 9:00 PM

In this week's Off The Cuff podcast, Chris and Mish Shedlock discuss:

  • A Study In Failure Of The State
    • Chris shares his on-the-ground observations from So. America
  • It Can Happen Here
    • Mish shares his on-the-ground observations from Illinois
  • Virtually All The Macroeconomic Data Is Miserable
    • Yet the Fed & the markets are acting like everything's great
  • The Approaching Minsky Moment
    • It's a matter of if, not when

This week's Off The Cuff discussion is an interesting one. Both Chris and Mish have front-row seats to two failing governments -- Chris in Argentina, and Mish in Illinois. It feels to them like they are getting a preview of the economic pain soon to come to the rest of the world.

Both are *very* concerned that citizens and investors across the globe are being duped by the (lack of) signals and messages today's ""markets"" are providing. Looking at the steady drumbeat of bad & worsening macroeconomic data, as well as the immense gap between fundamentals and asset prices, Chris and Mish are as confident as they have ever been that a massive painful reset is nigh. But too many of our leaders, and too much of the public, remain complacent/ignorant (willfully or not) regarding this risk. 

Their conclusion? The world is woefully unprepared for the Minsky moment headed its way.

Click to listen to a sample of this Off the Cuff Podcast or Enroll today to access the full audio and other premium content today. » Read more

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Why The Markets Are Overdue For A Gigantic Bust

It's just not possible to print our way to prosperity
Friday, June 9, 2017, 7:38 PM

As much as I try, I simply cannot jump on the bandwagon that says that printing up money out of thin air has any long-term utility for an economy.

It's just too clear to me that doing so presents plenty of dangers, due what we might call 'economic gravity': What goes up, must also come down. » Read more

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The End Of Money

Our first live event on our new webinar platform
Wednesday, May 10, 2017, 3:27 PM

Today's lofty asset prices are dependent on one thing far beyond all else: continued massive amounts of liquidity injected each and every month by the world's central banks.

Over $12 trillion in "thin air" money has been printed up by the world's central banks since the start of the Great Recession. And so far in 2017, a fresh $200 billion is added to the pile each month(!)

This makes the future price trajectory for stocks, bonds, real estate and nearly every other asset class more dependent on central bank policy than at any time in history. Investors need to ask: What are the central banks most likely to do next, and what will the repercussions be? » Read more

End Of Money Webinar - May 25, 2017 @ Noon EST

We here at PeakProsperity.com are particularly concerned about the central banks' next actions, as we believe their policies are creating the greatest wealth transfer of all time -- from the hard-earned savings of the public, and into the pockets of an elite few. (More on our conclusions can be read here).

Which is why, via our brand-new webinar platform, we're giving you insider access to several of the world's top experts on the central banking system, world currencies and financial markets.

During this 3-hour webinar, you'll hear their latest intelligence and forecasts AND be able to ask each speaker questions directly. This will be an amazingly rich and interactive experience.

Speaker bios & quotes

Register Now button

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Where There’s Smoke...

...There’s central bank manipulation
Friday, April 21, 2017, 8:26 PM

Many questions surround the elevated financial asset prices we are faced with today.

I'm talking not just about the sky-high prices of stocks and bonds, but also of the trillions of dollars’ worth of derivatives that are linked to them.  All are intricately linked together. For instance, stocks are elevated, in part, because bond yields are so low. 

These questions are important to consider because -- if central banks have been too involved and gotten themselves mixed up in trying to ‘wag the dog’ by using elevated financial asset prices as a means to drive economic expansion -- then the risk is a big implosion in financial asset prices if their efforts fail. » Read more

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It’s Bubble Time!

Wisdom & discipline will separate winners from victims
Thursday, February 23, 2017, 5:50 PM

It's impossible to predict with certainty how much more insane our financial markets will get before an inevitable correction, but my personal bet is “a lot!”

For my reasons why, take a few minutes to watch the chapter on bubbles below from The Crash Course. For those who haven't seen it before, the takeaway is this: bubbles pop only when greed in the market has been exhausted. » Read more

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The Mother Of All Financial Bubbles

Will be unimaginably destructive when it bursts
Wednesday, February 22, 2017, 11:45 PM

The main lesson from Oroville -- or Fukushima, or Katrina --  is that governments do a poor job of relating accurate information to their citizens when big threats are involved. Part of that is likely due to a desire to avoid stoking fear. Part probably due to politics and bureaucracy. And part probably due to plain old incompetence.

Regardless of the cause, it means that the public -- even the vigilant ones -- suffer information deficits when it matters most. Simply put, the authorities do not share all the facts necessary for making informed decisions.

Which brings us to one of the truly great risks we're facing today. One with much more destructive potential than a single failed dam but, like Oroville, one the authorities are desperate to keep us in the dark about. » Read more

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How Bad Will It Get?

How big will the losses be? Who will bear them?
Friday, February 17, 2017, 11:45 PM

Executive Summary

  • How overvalued is the system?
  • The biggest errors that got us to this point
  • What to expect during the big reset
  • Taking necessary action

If you have not yet read Part 1: The Mother Of All Financial Bubbles, It's Time To Worryavailable free to all readers, please click here to read it first.

What will the coming reset look like when it finally arrives?

This is the operative question everybody should be asking themselves because, believe me, the bankers and politicians are already frantically at work on the only question they care about: Who, instead of us, is going to eat the losses?

Let me be clear. The coming reset is going to be very, very painful. Part of me just wants to rip the proverbial Band-Aid off and get on with it, yet part of me dreads what’s coming and is in no hurry to see it arrive. Talk about being ambivalent!

The big picture looks like this: Ray Dialo’s firm Bridgewater Associates, a mega-money management firm, put together the below chart of the IOUs of the US (most other countries look the same, so feel free to extrapolate for Japan, or most of the EU, or the UK).

There are, simply, too many promises that cannot be kept. At a recent ICV wealth conference (just this week) one of the speakers was a man named Bradley Belt, former executive director of the Pension Benefit Guaranty Corporation (PBGC).

I asked him if there were any possible solutions to the staggering risks posed by the data in this chart. And who, if anyone, is working on them?

He answered that... » Read more

Podcast

american3rdposition.com

Danielle DiMartino Booth: An Insider Exposes The Evils Of The Fed

Killing savers, pensions & ultimately the bond market
Sunday, February 12, 2017, 1:01 PM

Danielle DiMartino Booth, former analyst at the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, has just released the book Fed Up: An Insider's Take On Why The Federal Reserve Is Bad For America.

In it, Danielle describes how the Federal Reserve is controlled by 1,000 PhD economists and run by an unelected West Coast radical with no direct business experience. The Fed continues to enable Congress to grow our nation’s ballooning debt and avoid making hard choices, despite the high psychological and monetary costs. And our addiction to the "heroin" of low interest rates is pushing our economy towards yet another collapse.

This reckless monetary policy pursued by the Fed has resulted in the rich elite becoming markedly richer, while savers and retirees are being absolutely gutted. All while risking a coming conflagration in the bond markets that will destroy a painful percentage of the world's financial wealth: » Read more

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adirondackalmanack.com

A Murderous Complacency

Dark omens are circling everywhere in today's markets
Friday, February 3, 2017, 5:38 PM

Running PeakProsperity.com requires me to read and process a lot of data on a daily basis. As it's hard to digest it all in real-time, I keep a running list of charts, tables and articles that catch my attention, to return to when I have the time to give them my full attention.

Lately, that list has been getting quite long. And it's largely full of indicators that concern me, signals that the long era of "extend and pretend" in today's markets may finally be at its terminus.

Like crows circling overhead, everyday brings with it new worrisome statistics that portend an ill change ahead. Indeed, these signs are increasing so quickly now that it's hard not to feel like Tippi Hedren in Hitchcock's classic The Birds. » Read more