bonds

Podcast

Shutterstock

Wolf Richter: Making Sense Of The Recent Market Gyrations

Which triggers are driving the action? What's next?
Monday, October 15, 2018, 3:37 PM

Recorded last week as the market was in full melt-down mode, Chris and Wolf Richter decode the underlying drivers of the sudden reversal, and peer into the future to predict what is most likely to happen next. Both agree that, whether stocks are briefly 'rescued' in the ensuing days, the long-awaited downward re-pricing of the 'Everything Bubble' is nigh. » Read more

Insider

GraphicStock

Preparing For The 'Big One'

The damage of the next true market crash will be staggering
Friday, October 12, 2018, 6:54 PM

Executive Summary

  • Long-suppressed market forces are suddenly coming unleashed
  • Why the status quo of the past decade is ending fast
  • What's most likely to come next
  • How much damage would a true "market crash" wreak?

If you have not yet read Has “It” Finally Arrived?, available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.

What A “Market Crash” Really Means

The risk that comes from the bursting of a credit cycle is financial market disruption that causes prices to dislocate.  In 2008 that meant the utter inability to move certain credit and derivative products within the banking ecosystem which led to the downfall of Bear Stearns and Lehman Brothers. 

In turn those failures helped to nearly precipitate the systemic collapse of the banking system.  It got so bad that even high level bank CEOs were taking cash out of ATMs because they simply didn’t know if their won banks would be open in the morning.

Lots of changes were made to try and prevent such a thing from happening again, but many of these are counterproductive. 

In talking about Trump’s criticism of Powell, Chris Whalen of The Institutional Risk Analyst wrote several scathing critiques of the ways the Fed has indeed destroyed the markets, but it was his third point that really caught my attention:

Third is the real issuing bothering President Trump, even if he cannot find the precise words, namely liquidity.  We have the illusion of liquidity in the financial markets today.

Sell Side firms are prohibited by Dodd-Frank and the Volcker Rule from deploying capital in the cash equity and debt markets.  All bank portfolios are now passive.  No trading, no market making.  There is nobody to catch the falling knife.

The only credit being extended today in the short-term markets is with collateral.  There is no longer any unsecured lending between banks and, especially, non-banks.

As we noted in The Institutional Risk Analyst earlier this week, there are scores of nonbank lenders in mortgages, autos and consumer unsecured lending that are ready to go belly up.  Half of the non-bank mortgage lenders in the US are in default on their bank credit lines.  As in 2007, the model builders at the Fed in Washington have no idea nor do they care to hear outside opinions.

(Source)

There’s nobody to catch a falling knife.  Everybody has abdicated to the idea of an untested ecosystem of computer algorithms being first, last and only line of defense.  It’s kind of binary; it either works or it doesn’t.

It’s also untested. 

So the risk here, which is impossible to quantify, is that someday things go a bit haywire, something (or a whole lot of somethings) go out of parameter and the computers go dark.

What happens then?

First, we'll see.........(Enroll to continue reading the full report) » Read more

Blog

Shutterstock

Has “It” Finally Arrived?

Is this week's 6% market drop the start of the Big One?
Friday, October 12, 2018, 6:54 PM

With the recent plunge in the S&P 500 of over 5%, has the long-anticipated (and long-overdue) market correction finally begun?

It’s hard to say for certain. But the systemic cracks we've been closely monitoring definitely got an awful lot wider this week. » Read more

Insider

Shutterstock

Off The Cuff: Making Sense Of The Recent Market Gyrations

Which triggers are driving the action? What's next?
Friday, October 12, 2018, 11:29 AM

In this week's Off The Cuff podcast, Chris and Wolf Richter discuss:

  • Impact Of Fed Tightening
    • Likely still underestimated by the market
  • Funds Are Trying To Protect Stock Prices
    • A futile (in the long run) attempt to prevent losses
  • Why Bond Funds Are So Risky
    • Much more dangerous than owning bonds outright
  • 6% Mortage Rates Will Act As Housing's Kryptonite
    • We're not there yet, but getting closer...

Recorded Wed as the market was in full melt-down mode, Chris and Wolf Richter decode the underlying drivers of the sudden reversal, and peer into the future to predict what is most likely to happen next. Both agree that, whether stocks are briefly 'rescued' in the ensuing days, the long-awaited downward re-pricing of the 'Everything Bubble' is nigh.

Click to listen to a sample of this Off the Cuff Podcast or Enroll today to access the full audio as well as all of PeakProsperity.com's other premium content. » Read more

Blog

Think You're Prepared For The Next Crisis? Think Again.

Even the best-laid preparations have failure points
Friday, October 5, 2018, 6:43 PM

So how ready are you, really, if we're indeed headed into another 2008-style market crash?

One in which the major stock market indexes could drop 50% or more in a matter of just a few weeks? Where housing prices could drop by 30-40% (or more) and home buyers go on strike? Where bond prices relentlessly drop as interest rates march higher, freed from a decade-long supression at historic lows? Where mass layoffs return, and hundreds of thousands of workers lose their jobs each month?

Things could get ugly. Really, really ugly.  » Read more

Think You're Prepared For The Next Crisis? Think Again.

Even the best-laid preparations have failure points

So how ready are you, really, if we're indeed headed into another 2008-style market crash?

One in which the major stock market indexes could drop 50% or more in a matter of just a few weeks? Where housing prices could drop by 30-40% (or more) and home buyers go on strike? Where bond prices relentlessly drop as interest rates march higher, freed from a decade-long supression at historic lows? Where mass layoffs return, and hundreds of thousands of workers lose their jobs each month?

Things could get ugly. Really, really ugly. 

Insider

Dreamstime

WARNING: The Markets Are Suddenly Looking Very Sick

Why this may be the long-awaited turning point downwards
Friday, October 5, 2018, 12:59 PM

As you probably know, our model here for tracking and staying ahead of the next financial crisis is to watch for trouble to move from “the outside in.”  This means that the weaker elements in the system always fail first.

Therefore, we prioritize watching junk debt more than investment grade debt, investment grade debt more then US Treasurys (the supposedly safest bonds in the world).  We watch Italy closer than Germany, and Turkey closer than Italy.

The weakest elements always go first.

And when the central bank created credit-liquidity cycles come to an end, this is especially true.

And when the weakest players topple, the contagion up the quality chain usually starts happening fast.

Very fast.

This is why we've long been advising a prudent and careful strategy of money management over these past several years, as painful as that’s been while the party has been raging higher. 

And while we’re not anxious to be vindicated (because there will be a lot of misery in the world when these credit bubbles finally burst), we’re confident that we will be.

Has that time begun? Is it finally time to call it, and pronounce this long-lived credit cycle dead?

Well... we’ve thought so before and been wrong, so let us be the first to temper our remarks here. If the extraordinary efforts of the central authorities have taught us anything over the years, it’s to be cautious and humble when it comes to marking “market calls.”

Since we don’t have a crystal ball, let's share the data that’s been accumulating on our desktop these past few months that has us thinking that the long-awaited market correction may have indeed arrived this week. This evidence suggests that the crumbling decay in the markets has just recently passed several critical marks, and that a major breakdown to the downside may be unfolding before our eyes.

And while we’ve not (yet) ready to issue an official “Alert” to all of our readers, this is for sure a serious warning.

Let's start by looking at these critical charts... » Read more

Blog

We Are All Lab Rats In The Largest-Ever Monetary Experiment In Human History

And how do things usually work out for the rat?
Friday, August 17, 2018, 7:10 PM

This global flood of freshly-printed 'thin air' money has no parallel in the historical records. All around the world, each of us is part of a grand experiment being conducted without the benefits of either prior experience or controls. Its outcome will be binary: either super-great or spectacularly awful.

If the former, then no worries. We'll just continue to borrow and spend in ever-greater amounts -- forever. Perpetual prosperity for everyone!

But if things hit a breaking point, then you had better be prepared for some truly bad times. » Read more

Podcast

Public Domain Pictures

Lance Roberts: The Markets Are Now Waving A Huge Red Flag

Another debt-fueled crisis & and hangover approaches
Thursday, August 16, 2018, 9:15 PM

Lance Roberts sees trouble ahead.

As chief investment strategist of Clarity Financial and chief editor of Real Investment Advice, Lance issues commentary weekly on the financial markets. He sees a major market correction/crash dead ahead, likely in early 2019 as the US economy offically slides back into recession -- though he's open to it happening sooner than that.

Based on the huge debt/decifit excess that have built up in the economy, paired with the tremendous overvaluations in asset prices seen in today's markets, Lance expects economic growth to remain anemic (at best) for the coming decade: » Read more

Blog

Shutterstock

David Stockman: The World Economy Is At An Epochal Pivot

A 'Great Reset' approaches
Friday, August 10, 2018, 7:00 PM

David Stockman warns that the global economy has reached an "epochal pivot", a moment when the false prosperity created from $trillions in printed money by the world's central banks lurches violently into reverse.

Stockman's main warning is that there's no bid underneath this market -- that when perception shifts from greed to fear, the bottom is much farther down than most investors realize. In his words, it's "rigged for implosion".
 
He predicts a Great Reset is imminent. One that, for those who see it coming and take prudent action today, will offer tremendous, perhaps once-in-a-lifetime, investment opportunity once the dust settles.