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A Hard Rain's a-Gonna Fall

The prospects for the rest of the year are awful
Friday, June 15, 2018, 6:55 PM

As the Federal Reserve kicked off its second round of quantitative easing in aftermath of the Great Financial Crisis, hedge fund manager David Tepper predicted that nearly all assets would rise tremendously in response. 

History proved Tepper right: financial and other risk assets have shot the moon. Equities have long since rocketed past their pre-crisis highs, bonds continued rising as interest rates stayed at historic lows, and many real estate markets are now back in bubble territory. 

And everyone learned to love the 'Fed put' and stop worrying.

But as King Louis XV and Bob Dylan both warned us, what's coming next will change everything. » Read more

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Reuters

It's Looking A Lot Like 2008 Now...

Did today's market plunge mark the start of the next crash?
Friday, February 2, 2018, 9:57 PM

Economic and market conditions are eerily like they were in late 2007/early 2008.

Remember back then? Everything was going great. Home prices were soaring. Jobs were plentiful.

The great cultural marketing machine was busy proclaiming that a new era of permanent prosperity had dawned, thanks to the steady leadership of Alan Greenspan and later Ben Bernanke. And only a small cadre of cranks, like me, was singing a different tune; warning instead that a painful reckoning in our financial system was approaching fast.

It's fitting that I'm writing this on Groundhog Day, as to these veteran eyes, it sure has been looking a lot like late 2007/early 2008 lately... » Read more

Podcast

Oleksii Sergieiev | Dreamstime

Richard Sylla: This Is An Inherently Dangerous Moment In History

Low interest rates are causing distortions & mis-allocations
Monday, August 7, 2017, 2:42 PM

"The rates we’ve had in recent years, including right now, are the lowest in history. The book that I co-authored on the history of interest rates traces back to the code of Hammurabi, Babylonian civilization, Greek and Roman civilization, the Middle Ages, the Renaissance, and early modern history right up to the present. And I can assure our listeners that the rates that they’re experiencing right now are the lowest in human history."

So says Richard Sylla, Professor Emeritus of Economics and the Former Henry Kaufman Professor of the History of Financial Institutions and Markets at New York University's Stern School of Business. He is also co-author of the book A History Of Interest Rates

We invited Professor Sylla onto the podcast after hearing his work favorably referenced by the panel convened at the recent hearing held by the US Congress titled: “The Federal Reserve’s Impact on Main Street, Retirees and Savings.”

Based on his deep study across the scope of millennia of human history, Sylla warns we are at a dangerous moment in time. » Read more

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Hell To Pay

The final condition for a market crash is falling into place
Friday, September 23, 2016, 5:23 PM

Those familiar with my writing know I put the word “markets” in quotes because we no longer have a financial system where legitimate price discovery is a regular -- or even recognizable -- feature.

It's destined to fail. What more can be said about such a flawed system?

Well, a lot as it turns out. 

And failure to pay attention at this stage of economic and ecological history will prove to be exceptionally painful. » Read more

Insider

Off The Cuff: Making Sense Of The FOMC Decision

The likely impacts of this week's Fed and BOJ (in)actions
Wednesday, September 21, 2016, 11:33 PM

In this week's Off The Cuff podcast, Chris and Axel Merk discuss:

  • Fed In A Box
    • At this point, stalling is Yellen's only option
  • Boneheaded BOJ
    • Now trying to undue the damage of its recent NIRP policies
  • Blind To Bubbles
    • Central banks are unwilling to admit they're the cause of the problem, not the solution
  • Bad Policies
    • Capitalism is getting destroyed (and a bad rap) by central banks run amok

In the wake of the closely-watched announcements by the BOJ and the Federal Reserve, Chris and Axel sit down in this meaty discussion to pick through the particulars of what this week's announcement mean. In a world where everything hangs on the decisions of an elite few central banks, this is one of the more important podcasts we've released in a while. » Read more

Podcast

r.classen/Dreamstime

Michael Pento: The Coming Bond Bubble Collapse

All asset classes will collapse in tandem when this bursts
Sunday, September 18, 2016, 1:42 PM

In this week's podcast, Michael Pento, fund manager and author of The Coming Bond Bubble Collapse, explains how the United States is fast approaching the end stage of the biggest asset bubble in history. He describes how the bursting of this bubble will cause a massive interest rate shock that will send the US consumer economy and the US government—pumped up by massive Treasury debt—into bankruptcy, an event that will send shockwaves throughout the global economy: » Read more

Podcast

Esteban De Armas/Shutterstock

Mike Maloney: This Is The Peak

To be followed by 'one hell of a crisis'
Sunday, August 28, 2016, 3:09 PM

Precious metals dealer and monetary historian Mike Maloney is quite confident the liquidity-driven 'recovery' created by the world's central banks is now over. In his estimation, the path ahead is one of accelerating descent into inevitable currency destruction. » Read more

Podcast

cfact.org

Steen Jakobsen: The End Of The Debt Cycle

As transformational as the fall of the Berlin Wall
Sunday, February 21, 2016, 7:26 PM

As we've been watching closely, something is wrong with the big banks. Their shares have lost 25-33% of their market value since the beginning of the year. What's going on?

The turmoil seems greatest in Europe, where bank shares have fallen the hardest, and negative interest rates have appeared with increasingly frequency across member countries.

To make sense of it all, we've invited Steen Jakobsen back on, Chief Investment Officer of Saxo Bank, who can provide an eyes-on-the-ground perspective on the European banking system from his location in Copenhagen. » Read more

Insider

Evan Fariston/Shutterstock

Off the Cuff: Pinball Markets

Expect more volatility & price riccochets
Thursday, March 26, 2015, 2:41 PM

In this week's Off the Cuff podcast, Chris and Brian Pretti discuss:

  • Pinball Markets
    • Volatility & unpredictability is on the rise
  • Lack Of Liquidity
    • Becoming a top market concern
  • Capital Flows
    • May keep US markets better than the rest, but not forever
  • Watch The Bond Markets
    • When they fail, it will be ugly
Blog

acting-man.com

How Many More “Saves” Are Left in the Central Bank Bazookas?

Very few, it seems
Wednesday, February 18, 2015, 10:45 PM

The remarkable success of grandiose pronouncements, money-printing programs and serial expansions of credit raises a key question: how many more “saves” can the central bank bazookas fire that will have the desired effects of maintaining perceptions of central bank omnipotence and pushing global markets ever higher? » Read more