Asia

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Chris In Asia This October

We're looking to expand his speaking schedule while there
Wednesday, August 17, 2016, 5:20 PM

As many of you know, earlier this year Chris was recruited by the United Nations to participate in one of its Advisory Groups. The mission of this particular group is to award a $1 million grant to a promising innovator in the field of sustainable transportation.

In April, the Group, made up of high-ranking officials and experts from around the globe, convened its for first meeting at the UN's headquarters in New York.

Its next meeting is taking place in Hong Kong over October 7-9th. » Read more

Podcast

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Marc Faber: The Global Economy Is Entering An Epic Slump

Losses are going to get ugly, fast
Sunday, August 23, 2015, 6:32 PM

Famed investor and author of the Gloom, Doom, Boom Report, Marc Faber, returns to the podcast this week to discuss the slowdown in the global economy, signs of which he claims are multiplying fast all around the world.

He predicts the next year is going to be an especially bruising one for investors, and recommends a combination of diversification and defense for those with financial capital to protect. » Read more

Insider

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The Rise Of The East

5 billion vs 1 billion
Wednesday, August 20, 2014, 12:05 PM

Executive Summary

  • The West is extremely vulnerable to financial and currency de-stabilisation through precious metals
  • Access to energy supplies will be the real weapon used in the battle over Ukraine (and future geo-political wars)
  • Why sanctions against Russia will not succeed
  • The East is mobilizing to become less dependent on the West

If you have not yet read Is Part 1: Ukraine: A Perspective from Europe available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.

Russia’s strategy towards Ukraine appears to be to ensure NATO is excluded from Ukrainian territory, the irony being that if NATO members hadn’t interfered with Ukrainian politics in the first place the current crisis would not have occurred. As it is, at a minimum she will seek to secure Donetsk and Luhansk and force the Kiev government to drop any ambitions to join the EU economic bloc.

The fact that NATO is divided between on the one side the US and UK plus all its ex-communist members and on the other the great European welfare states, requires there to be two distinct levels of Russian strategy. They must not be confused with each other, one macro and the other micro.

Macro-Geopolitics Linked To Gold

At the higher level there is the geopolitical clash with the US. This is not just a matter of Ukraine, but it is rapidly becoming the Shanghai Cooperation Council versus America. The US is also embroiled in territorial disputes between its allies and China over mineral rights in the South China Sea. The Middle-East now sells more oil to China than the US, and by leaving the US sphere of influence will fall increasingly under the SCO’s spell. Presumably, America has woken up to the threat to its hegemony from the powerful alliance that is the SCO, together with the loss of Pakistan and India into that sphere of influence. It goes further: even Turkey, a long-standing NATO member, plans to defect to the SCO, apparently a personal project of Recep Erdoğan, the recently re-elected Prime Minister.

American-initiated actions against Russia will probably be kept by Russia and the SCO in this big-picture context. It will be treated as an attack against an SCO member, speeding up integration and trade agreements designed to exclude the US dollar as a settlement medium. In this context the SCO members already appear to have agreed on the need to increase gold ownership as an undefined part-solution to replace the US dollar as the currency standard. In other words, the rush to acquire above-ground gold stocks will continue, and China through her refiners is processing and keeping increasing quantities of African-sourced gold as well as her own which would otherwise have gone to the West.

The Russian central bank has been adding to her monetary gold reserves and officially now has more than China (though China is known to have substantial holdings of bullion not currently declared as monetary reserves). All mine output is likely to be absorbed by the State. Russia has continued to build her gold reserves at a time when it could be argued by western analysts that she needs to hold on to all her foreign currency, given the prospect of escalating sanctions. The truth is that... » Read more

Insider

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Off the Cuff: Trend Reversal?

The New Year begins with a stark break from the old
Friday, January 3, 2014, 11:35 AM

In this week's Off the Cuff podcast, Chris and Mish discuss:

  • Trend Reversal?
    • The New Year starts with a surprise
  • 6 Years of Extreme Global Monetary Intervention
    • With more to come?
  • Big Trouble Brewing in Asia
    • Don't bet on East eclipsing West anytime soon
  • Middle-Class Squeeze
    • Getting even tighter in the future
Blog

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There Is Too Little Gold in the West

The history of gold's flight to the developing world
Friday, December 6, 2013, 1:53 AM

Western central banks have tried to shake off the constraints of gold for a long time, which has created enormous difficulties for them. They have generally succeeded in managing opinion in the developed nations but been demonstrably unsuccessful in the lesser-developed world, particularly in Asia. It is the growing wealth earned by these nations that has fuelled demand for gold since the late 1960s. There is precious little bullion left in the West today to supply rapidly increasing Asian demand. It is important to understand how little there is and the dangers this poses for financial stability. » Read more

Insider

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The Very Real Danger of a Failure in the Gold Market

And why it's increasingly likely to happen
Friday, December 6, 2013, 1:52 AM

Executive Summary

  • Central planning are colluding but failing to diminish world demand for bullion
  • The BRICS are planning a future of less dependence on the West, and gold will play a role
  • The East sees gold as "on sale" at today's prices
  • Analysis shows they're right; gold is much cheaper than it should be compared to pre-QE levels

If you have not yet read There Is Too Little Gold in the West, available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.

In Part I, I went through the history of Asian demand for gold, starting with the Arabs’ need to find a home for increasing quantities of petrodollars from the late 1960s onwards. My conclusion was that there is very little bullion in private ownership left in the West, there is an unmanageable short position in the unallocated gold accounts held with the bullion banks, and the bulk of accessible monetary gold controlled by central banks is already leased and has been sold into the market to satisfy Asian demand.

The result is that merely suppressing the gold price to enhance credibility of the dollar as a reserve currency is no longer the problem. The problem is now one of crisis management. Western central banks have done everything they can, even persuading the Reserve Bank of India to suppress India’s gold imports. We know this is most probably the case because the Indian authorities have already learned the lesson that gold imports could not be controlled, which is why the Gold Control Act was abolished in 1990. Furthermore, the newly-appointed RBI Governor, Raghuram Rajan is an ex-IMF chief economist, has spent a significant part of his career in the U.S., and is therefore likely to be fully sympathetic with Western central bank objectives. He appears to be the West’s place-man.

Other than the question of Indian demand, there are two possible reasons for the flows of gold from West to East: geo-political, whereby one or more Asian nations are deliberately creating a potential crisis for the West, and different valuation criteria. Both are true and... » Read more

Insider

The New Game-Changers for Gold & Silver

A new parade of reasons to expect higher prices soon
Wednesday, June 12, 2013, 9:19 PM

Executive Summary

  • Large players (and likely price manipulators) now have incentive for precious metals prices to rise
  • Investor demand for bullion remains at record highs
  • Competition for bullion from the East continues to heat up
  • Central banks buy more bullion as Comex inventories deplete
  • The key signs to know when it will be time to sell your gold & silver

If you have not yet read Part I: Is Gold at a Turning Point? available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.

Manipulation

Much has been written across the Web (including here at PeakProsperity.com) about whether or not the precious metals markets are manipulated in price by big players (major multi-national banks such as JP Morgan). Without delving into the many arguments on both the pro and con sides, Chris and I are of the opinion that sufficient data exists to convince a reasonable observer that price manipulation in the PM markets is indeed real, or, at the very least, highly probable. (For those remaining doubters out there, have a look at the evidence here, here, and here, and let us know if you have a rational, non-manipulative explanation.)

One of the most glaring signs of likely manipulation has been the massive short positions that a small number of large banks (JP Morgan being the most prominent among them) have held for many years, particularly in the silver market [measure positions as % of world silver production]. And not only were these unlimited positions allowed, but this cabal of banks was allowed to naked-sell PMs short (i.e., sell metal without actually owning it first). On the other side of the coin, the long side, position limits were enforced, and there was no similar ability to buy more metal than one could pay for. This imbalance of rules certainly provides the mechanism by which PM prices could be artificially jockeyed more easily to the downside. In this context, a decline from the high $40s to the low $20s looks more understandable.

Well, a very important part of this story has just shifted. The CFTC (Commodities Futures Trading Commission) publishes a monthly report illustrating the positions taken in Comex Futures Contracts

After nearly ten years of being net short in Comex gold futures, U.S. banks have been recently decreasing those short positions, and for the first time since 2004 (with the exception of a single month in 2008) they have flipped to become net long gold in May (see bottom chart below)... » Read more

Daily Digest

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Daily Digest 6/4 - A Gold Myth Exposed, Cicadas Get a Warm Welcome In CT

Tuesday, June 4, 2013, 10:58 AM
  • A Gold Myth Exposed With 7 Simple Figures
  • Groups want cap on Nestlé's water permit during droughts
  • College in Sweden is free but students still have a ton of debt. How can that be?
  • A Tale of Wall Street Excess
  • European Union Backs Down on China Tariffs
  • Lots of Energy, Little Access: Africa and Asia in the Dark
  • Chasing the Storm, but Hoping Not to Catch It
  • Here, Cicadas Get a Warm Welcome
Daily Digest

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Daily Digest 5/9 - Why We All Need The Middle Classes, Everybody Lives in Asia

Thursday, May 9, 2013, 10:25 AM
  • Gold Is Collapsing, Not Bottoming: Swedroe
  • 11 Reasons Why The Federal Reserve Should Be Abolished
  • Germans splurge on Italian homes locals can’t afford
  • India’s new China war
  • No Bank Deposits Will Be Spared from Confiscation
  • Gold: Who’s Selling, Who's Buying, Who's Lying
  • Everybody Lives in Asia
  • Only 150 of 3500 U.S. Colleges Are Worth the Investment: Former Secretary of Education
  • Sea Of Money
  • Why we all need the middle classes
  • Buena Vista: Meeting could tell if school will start again; district knew state overpaid it
  • Gold and Silver: Sentiment Reversal is Inevitable
  • Downloads for 3D-printed Liberator gun reach 100,000
  • Canadian Government Establishes Two-Tier Approach for Trade Talks: Insiders and Everyone Else
  • Shell to develop Stones deepwater oil field in Gulf of Mexico
  • JP Morgan: A New Type of Dirty Energy
  • 5.09.13: Canadian Tire follows Loblaw’s lead with real estate spin-off