Argentina

Insider

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The Breaking Point Is Upon Us

Signs of collapse are suddenly everywhere around the world
Friday, May 25, 2018, 7:29 PM

Executive Summary

  • Why despite winning battle after battle, the central banks will lose the war
  • The viscious cycle is already underway in the Emerging Markets
    • Turkey
    • Argentina
    • Brazil and Mexico (not to mention Venezuela)
  • Italy is dragging Europe into crisis
  • The weaker segments in the US are already in collapse

If you have not yet read Part 1: The End Of Stimulus? (And The Start Of The Crash?), available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.

Suddenly everywhere we look in the emerging markets, we're seeing things quickly get out of hand. EM currencies are plunging and their bonds are being sold hard. It’s a broad-based sell-off. 

Expect similar disruptions in the EM equity markets soon. The collapse progression is always the same: currency first, bonds second, then equites.

Our view of what’s happening in the EM universe is that the carry trades are unwinding. What this means is that the big piles of money unleashed on the world by the OECD central banks are turning tail and running away from the periphery (EMs)  and back towards the core (US, EU).

The virtuous part of this cycle for the EM countries was that big funds would borrow in a major currency, like the dollar or euro, and then buy a particular EM currency (causing that currency to strengthen) as well as its debt (causing those bond prices to rise).

The opposite and unhappy part of that story is when that whole things gets reversed. A vicious cycle is initiated which causes the bonds of the EM country to be sold, jacking up EM interest rates, and then the currency is sold (weakening it), and then dollars/euros are bought again causing those major currencies to strengthen.

That’s the pattern we're seeing right now and it’s consistent with the falling global liquidity markets are experiencing, which indicates that a big problem is brewing.

For several EM countries, as well as weaker players in Europe and the American lower and middle classses, that problem has already arrived.

We see clear evidence of it in... » Read more

Insider

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Off The Cuff: The Approaching Minsky Moment

The world is unprepared for the reset heading our way
Wednesday, June 21, 2017, 9:00 PM

In this week's Off The Cuff podcast, Chris and Mish Shedlock discuss:

  • A Study In Failure Of The State
    • Chris shares his on-the-ground observations from So. America
  • It Can Happen Here
    • Mish shares his on-the-ground observations from Illinois
  • Virtually All The Macroeconomic Data Is Miserable
    • Yet the Fed & the markets are acting like everything's great
  • The Approaching Minsky Moment
    • It's a matter of if, not when

This week's Off The Cuff discussion is an interesting one. Both Chris and Mish have front-row seats to two failing governments -- Chris in Argentina, and Mish in Illinois. It feels to them like they are getting a preview of the economic pain soon to come to the rest of the world.

Both are *very* concerned that citizens and investors across the globe are being duped by the (lack of) signals and messages today's ""markets"" are providing. Looking at the steady drumbeat of bad & worsening macroeconomic data, as well as the immense gap between fundamentals and asset prices, Chris and Mish are as confident as they have ever been that a massive painful reset is nigh. But too many of our leaders, and too much of the public, remain complacent/ignorant (willfully or not) regarding this risk. 

Their conclusion? The world is woefully unprepared for the Minsky moment headed its way.

Click to listen to a sample of this Off the Cuff Podcast or Enroll today to access the full audio and other premium content today. » Read more

Podcast

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FerFAL: Understanding Societal Collapse

Warnings we should heed from Venezuela's crisis
Sunday, May 22, 2016, 1:18 PM

As we write about the risks of our over-indebted economy, of our unsustainable fossil fuel-dependent energy policies, and our accelerating depletion of key resources, it's not a far leap to start worrying about the potential for a coming degradation of our modern lifestyle -- or even the possibility of full-blown societal collapse.

Sadly, collapse is not just a theoretical worry for a growing number of people around the world. They're living within it right now.

This week, we catch up with Fernando "FerFAL" Aguirre, who began blogging during the hyperinflationary destruction of Argentina’s economy in 2001 and has since dedicated his professional career to educating the public about his experiences and observations of its lingering aftermath. Given his first-hand experience with living through, and eventually escaping, economic collapse in South America, we asked him to offer his insider's perspective on the current crisis in Venezuela, as well as the devolving situation in Brazil. » Read more

Blog

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2014 Year in Review

The year we piled up risks like a global game of Tetris
Friday, December 19, 2014, 12:27 PM

I have not seen a year in which so many risks—some truly existential—piled up so quickly. Each risk has its own, often unknown, probability of morphing into a destructive force. Groping for a metaphor—I love metaphors and similes—I feel like we’re in the final throes of a geopolitical Game of Tetris as financial and political authorities race to place the pieces correctly. But the acceleration is palpable. The proximate trigger for pain and ultimately a collapse can be small, as anyone who’s ever stepped barefoot on a Lego knows. » Read more

Insider

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Darkening Skies

Market threats are multiplying
Wednesday, July 30, 2014, 7:31 PM

Chris is busy finishing up a meaty report on the accelerating friction between the West and Russia, so I'm stepping in to make some quick notes on today's meaningful developments.

As PP.com readers know, we've been cautioning about a serious market correction for a long time. Valuations have been so far divorced from fundamentals for so long that we are frighteningly overdue for a drop -- likely a large one -- in asset prices. » Read more

Podcast

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FerFAL: Here's What It Looks Like When Your Country's Economy Collapses

Argentina is showing us the playbook in real-time
Saturday, February 8, 2014, 3:36 PM

Argentina is a country re-entering crisis territory it knows too well. The country has defaulted on its sovereign debt three times in the past 32 years, and looks poised to do so again soon.

Its currency, the peso, devalued by more than 20% in January alone. Inflation is currently running at 25%. Argentina's budget deficit is exploding and, based on credit default swap rates, the market is placing an 85% chance of a sovereign default within the next five years.

Want to know what it's like living through a currency collapse? Argentina is providing us with a real-time window.

So, we've invited Fernando "FerFAL" Aquirre back onto the program to provide commentary on the events on the ground there. What is life like right now for the average Argentinian? » Read more

Insider

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Off the Cuff: Down From Here?

Odds are the market top is behind us
Wednesday, February 5, 2014, 11:24 PM

In this week's Off the Cuff podcast, Chris and Mish discuss:

  • Down From Here?
    • Odds are the market top is behind us
  • Lack of Fear
    • Despite the evidence, too much investor optimism remains
  • Why the Fed Cares More About Growth Than Consumers
    • Because the banks can't function without it
  • Europe on the Verge
    • Expect the big players to fail this time
Insider

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Is This It?

Global market weakness is now quickly escalating
Friday, January 24, 2014, 11:59 AM

Is this it?  Are we seeing signs that after a very long period of Fed inspired insanity, et al. (courtesy of folks who lack any imagination beyond sustaining the unsustainable), are we finally entering a long-awaited financial correction?

Using our ‘outside in’ methodology, there’s lots to suggest we are entering such a phase.

All is not well on the periphery, with weaker economies now flashing serious warning signs in their bond and currency markets. It's enough that it’s time to... » Read more

What Should I Do?

Argentina Street Riots

Preparing for Economic Collapse

Learning from the past – a personal account
Tuesday, May 21, 2013, 3:14 PM

We bring back to the forefront an article from contributor Fernando "FerFAL" Aguirre. With the many new sources of turbulence in the financial system and many new unknowns of how our predicaments will play out, we can always look to the past for guidance. The following is an account from a long time Peak Prosperity member who has lived through economic collapse. FerFAL experienced the hyperinflationary destruction of Argentina's economy in 2001 and continues to blog about his experiences and observations of its lingering aftermath. His website and his book Surviving the Economic Collapse offer windows into the probable outcomes to expect during a collapsing economy. Note: Our site's What Should I Do? Guide offers specific guidance relevant to a number of the steps FerFAL recommends below. Review, Learn, and Get Prepared.  Better a year early than a day late. 

How can I prepare for an economic collapse? is one of the most common questions I get. It usually takes me a second to start to explain how complex such a question is. It’s like asking an auto mechanic, Say, how do you build a car? or asking a computer engineer, What’s all that stuff inside my laptop?

I do have some first-hand experience in this matter, though. The economy in my country, Argentina, has gone through various crises, but none as large as when the economy collapsed in 2001 after a decade of apparent prosperity. The currency devaluated, and Argentina defaulted on its USD$132 billion debt, the largest default ever. The middle class took to the streets after bank accounts were frozen, and the president was forced to resign, escaping the presidential building in a helicopter.

What I’ll do is provide five quick foundational steps, based on what I know, for you to follow so as to be better prepared if something like what happened in my country ever happens in yours. » Read more

Daily Digest

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Daily Digest 3/21 - Detroit City Council 'Still Relevant,' Argentines Go For Gold

Thursday, March 21, 2013, 11:28 AM
  • AstraZeneca slashing 1,200 jobs in Delaware
  • Bankrupt San Bernardino approves over $1 mln in pay hikes
  • Detroit council: We're still relevant
  • Argentines go for gold. Literally.
  • Ficano wants retired deputy to drive and guard him, wash his car
  • Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts - New Zealand Goes Cyprus-Style, RBNZ Responds
  • Nearly 150 years after conflict ended, U.S. government still making payments to children of Civil War vets
  • In Spain, The Bitcoin Run Has Started
  • Canadian man to sell house for Bitcoin virtual currency
  • CIA's Gus Hunt On Big Data: We 'Try To Collect Everything And Hang On To It Forever'
  • Tories aim to divide, conquer with envoy who will canvas First Nations on energy projects
  • German scientists quit oil sands research over public climate concerns
  • Doctors call for ban of antibiotic use in farm animals as drug-resistant human infections hit ‘dangerous level
  • ‘We, as a nation, have to wake up’: First Nations leaders vow to do what it takes to block oil pipelines
  • Wave of prawn deaths baffles Chile city of Coronel
  • Eating locusts: The crunchy, kosher snack taking Israel by swarm