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I Just Added To My Short Position

Keeping you updated on my portfolio positioning
Wednesday, August 16, 2017, 2:01 PM

Last year, I detailed out my personal investments in the report How My Portfolio Is Positioned Right Now. It turned out to be one of our most popular articles over the past few years.

In it, I mentioned that I'll do my best to update our subscribers when I make a material change to my portfolio allocation.

Well, I just did. » Read more

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Understanding The Cryptocurrency Boom

A ground-level assessment
Friday, June 23, 2017, 9:26 PM

Today, there are hundreds of cryptocurrencies, and a speculative boom has pushed bitcoin from around $600 a year ago to $2600 and Ethereum, another leading cryptocurrency, from around $10 last year to $370.

Where are cryptocurrencies in the evolution from new technology to speculative boom to maturation? Judging by valuation leaps from $10 to $370, the technology is clearly in the speculative boom phase.

In trying to predict which forms of cryptocurrencies will dominate the mature marketplace of the future, we know that markets will sort the wheat from the chaff by a winnowing the entries down to those that solve real business problems (i.e. address scarcities) in ways that are cheap and robust and that cannot be solved by other technologies.
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Why The Markets Are Overdue For A Gigantic Bust

It's just not possible to print our way to prosperity
Friday, June 9, 2017, 7:38 PM

As much as I try, I simply cannot jump on the bandwagon that says that printing up money out of thin air has any long-term utility for an economy.

It's just too clear to me that doing so presents plenty of dangers, due what we might call 'economic gravity': What goes up, must also come down. » Read more

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Observations From The Heart Of Silicon Valley

The calm before the storm?
Thursday, May 19, 2016, 8:11 PM

Yesterday I made the 2-hour drive back to Silicon Valley, where I lived for 15 years before moving out to the country.

I rarely go back, as I miss very little about the hyper-elite scene there. When I do, though, I feel I have a useful 'insider-now-outsider' perspective that allows me to see things there more accurately than those who live in that fishbowl 24/7.

What hit me most strongly upon arriving back in the Menlo Park/Palo Alto area, is how little of the craziness has changed since I left 4 years ago. I don't mean 'unchanged' though; rather that the same craziness is there, just more extreme than ever. » Read more