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New Martenson Report: Where do we go from here?

Sunday, March 15, 2009, 4:23 PM

A new Martenson Report is ready for subscribers.  In it, I describe the worst and best case scenarios that I see possible in the next few years, highlight China's concerns, examine the global trade deficit, and conclude that the bottom is not in.

Link to report

You should be cautious in allowing the opinions of experts everywhere - including me - to override your own common sense. Be careful to separate facts from opinions from beliefs. In desperate times, it is normal for the already-murky boundaries between these three elements to blur even further.

While I am agnostic over whether the stock market will bounce upwards for a while or resume on a path towards new lows, I am nearly 100% certain that we're not done wringing the former excesses and malinvestments out of the system.

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11 Comments

kiwi_canuck's picture
kiwi_canuck
Status: Member (Offline)
Joined: Oct 8 2008
Posts: 19
Re: New Martenson Report: Where do we go from here?
cmartenson wrote:

with imports shrinking 51 percent...

How much of this is simply companies running down their inventory?   Might we see a bounce-back once domestic demand can no longer be satisfied from inventory?

joemanc's picture
joemanc
Status: Martenson Brigade Member (Offline)
Joined: Aug 16 2008
Posts: 834
Re: New Martenson Report: Where do we go from here?

As if right on cue, Ukraine and Latvia talking about what you are talking about:

Quote:

Government officials from the two countries, which are at risk of
bankruptcy as a result of the global financial crisis, told the Daily
Telegraph that the European Union's biggest powers were in danger of
repeating the worst mistakes of the 1930s depression by retreating into
isolationism and protectionism.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financetopics/g20-summit/4995384/Ukra...

 

I'm sticking to what you said in Montague, that there are a lot of dollars floating out there and sooner or later they are going to come out and start chasing things, and this week it was stocks. I couldn't believe how many people I see day-to-day were happy the market was up last week, as if it was over. I had to send them the chart of the Dow during the Depression to temper their enthusiasm. Any bad news will just knock the markets back down, and as you've told us over and over again in your reports, there is plenty of it out there still to come. Thanks for the update!

Nichoman's picture
Nichoman
Status: Gold Member (Offline)
Joined: Nov 1 2008
Posts: 422
Re: New Martenson Report: Where do we go from here?

Peculiar no mention about where we are on the Oil "Wild Card".  The prism of the report seems unbalanced without inclusion of Oil Supply/Demand prospects.

Several articles at Oil Drum past few weeks with latest available (limited, incomplete) data suggests supply destruction is catching up with demand destruction...with crossover fairly soon.   Or at least a decent case can made for this.

This question is critical, after nearly a decades worth of personal reading and research...my view is there's a significant probability of this happening within 2 years.  If any rebound...within next 6-12 months.   This would seem to clarify most likely the evolution of Chris scenario cases. 

In future decisions...the fossil fuel issue should be included since any alternative energies will take many, many years to have mitigating economic impacts.

Wish Chris would have provided his perspective on Oil. 

2 cents.

 

Nichoman

 

 

stevekane111's picture
stevekane111
Status: Martenson Brigade Member (Offline)
Joined: Feb 3 2009
Posts: 5
Re: New Martenson Report: Where do we go from here?

I think you're spot on, Chris.  The media and the American public are desperate to feel that things will go back to the way things were.  The hype over this week's bounce in the markets is completely trumped by the lack of concrete news that would justify the rise.  Your analysis is great but does not include the affect of the continuing housing slump with many other mortgages set to reset this year and next into a depressed market where refinancing or sale is not an option.

I'd like you to explain something to me and maybe many of your readers.  If the Chinese take their dollar out of Treasuries where else are they going to put them?  As far as I can tell they have two choice buy American Treasuries or buy American stuff, like my neighbor's foreclosed home. Exactly how does China "repatriate their dollar holdings for domestic use" and get anything of value?

Ragnar_Danneskjold's picture
Ragnar_Danneskjold
Status: Silver Member (Offline)
Joined: Feb 23 2009
Posts: 100
Re: New Martenson Report: Where do we go from here?
Quote:

Exactly how does China "repatriate their dollar holdings for domestic use" and get anything of value?

Commodities

robk's picture
robk
Status: Member (Offline)
Joined: Aug 21 2008
Posts: 13
Re: New Martenson Report: Where do we go from here?

Chris -

 I would really appreciate hearing some specific steps you have been taking over the past year(s) to build your "community."

Thanks for continuing to be our scout.

Rob

joemanc's picture
joemanc
Status: Martenson Brigade Member (Offline)
Joined: Aug 16 2008
Posts: 834
Re: New Martenson Report: Where do we go from here?

Chris,

What might be a good topic in the future on community is the cooperative food network you mentioned last week. This issue came up last night in our '2 beers with Steve' Skype discussion. How does it work? How are you involved in it?

I probably speak for many when I say, yes, we get the economy is a mess, and I definitely appreciate the financial related updates you provide. But at the same time, let's move on to some community building issues, while keeping a wary on our crumbling financial system.

Joe

pjvalvo's picture
pjvalvo
Status: Member (Offline)
Joined: Mar 1 2009
Posts: 8
Re: New Martenson Report: Where do we go from here?

When I was living in Phoenix I was shocked to discover that there are multinational corporations that are actually owned by the Chinese gov't. These companies are using subsidiary companies with various English names to to buy real estate in the United States. They are owning and operating and you would never notice the difference.

This is second hand as I learned this from a building manager at such a property.

Link to one example: http://www.cofco.com/en/about_cofco/bu_all.aspx?con_id=3339 

ceci1ia's picture
ceci1ia
Status: Bronze Member (Offline)
Joined: Feb 7 2009
Posts: 79
Re: New Martenson Report: Where do we go from here?

Concerning supply disruptions, I noticed a hint of this issue on Saturday. I took our vehicle in for repairs at Big O tires. The service person was calling around to find a part that they didn't have in stock. She made several calls and found she couldn't get it until Monday. She made a comment to her co-worker that used to, they could find and get parts on Saturday, but not anymore.

This had implications for us, because we had to rent a car and leave the truck there until today.

Doug's picture
Doug
Status: Diamond Member (Offline)
Joined: Oct 1 2008
Posts: 3125
Re: New Martenson Report: Where do we go from here?

Ceci1ia

I think the problem you point to is very important.  We are just beginning to feel the shortages that are coming once inventories are used up.

Davos's picture
Davos
Status: Diamond Member (Offline)
Joined: Sep 17 2008
Posts: 3620
Re: New Martenson Report: Where do we go from here?

A friend of mine has a service station, he mentioned that many suppliers are not stocking like they used to and parts can and often do take a bit longer to get. One supplier he had to stop using, he thinks the guy was having cash problems and was sitting on orders until he had enough cash to pay for the part.

Slows down everything. 

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